Author: Adam Walford - @TouchdownTips

Posted on by

Dallas Draft Preview; Luxury or Need in the first?

Draft picks: #26 (Round 1), #58 (2), #90 (3), #129 (4), #176 (5), #212 (6), #246 (7)

Notable Free Agent Additions: Brandin Cooks (Houston – Trade), Stephon Gilmore (Indiannapolis – Trade), Ronald Jones (FA)Notable departures: Dalton Schultz (FA – Houston), Connor McGovern (FA – Buffalo)

As has been the case the last few off seasons, Dallas continue to be a bit more shrewd in who comes in and who goes out at the turnstiles at AT&T stadium. A few eyebrows were raised last offseason when they let some offensive lineman depart in La’el Collins and Connor Williams, betting on themselves in being able to replace them, and replace them they did with 1st round Rookie Tyler Smith who acquitted himself in well in various positions along the offensive line in his first season whilst they played mix and match for periods of the 2022 campaign.

Whilst they repeat half the trick this offseason by letting Connor McGovern head to Buffalo in Free Agency, I wouldn’t rule out another offensive lineman being addressed early in the draft as there is not a great deal of depth there considering the blotched injury history of most of the current starters that sees stalwarts Zack Martin and Tyron Smith reach their 33rd birthdays this year.

Some holes that don’t necessarily need to be addressed with high draft capital this year due to offseason dealings are Wide Receiver, with the signing of Brandin Cooks from Houston and the Cowboys state cohabitants are picking up a 3rd of his salary for the upcoming season. Cooks, who seems to have been traded more than a unwanted pog (the good old days) joins Dallas for some late round picks. He’ll slot in as WR2 after Michael Gallup struggled after coming back from his ACL injury the year prior, and with the Wide Receiver Class not being strong, it made sense for Dallas to bring someone in like Cooks.

Another hole filled was the 2nd Cornerback with Stephon Gilmore joining from the Colts. There are a few questions of concerns in the Cornerback room with Anthony Brown not at this time re-signed by the Cowboys and Jourdan Lewis is coming off a Lisfranc injury that required surgery. Both Gilmore and Cooks are veteran guys to bolster the experience in the locker room and are good additions for the prices paid.

So where do Dallas go assuming they utilise their 1st round pick? Well if you’d ask the bookies initially, the favourite was running back. Ezekiel Elliott was released by the Cowboys for cap purposes and whilst I think the Cowboys may draft a back in the later rounds, I would be surprised if Dallas take a Running Back with their 1st pick especially this day in age and how Running Backs are viewed value wise.

That being said, if Bijan Robinson finds his way down to pick 26, I wouldn’t say no and I doubt Dallas would either. I feel Dallas would have to trade up to get him though, not something Dallas do very often, especially given the position value of the player despite the undeniable talent. Dallas will utilise franchise-tagged Tony Pollard to the fullest extent with former Buccaneer and Chief Ronald Jones joining this offseason. He is more of a banger than Pollard can ever be and whilst he wont replicate peak Zeke years, he’ll probably fill a spelling role for Pollard which will probably be short yardage/goal to go situations.

That role will be taken away from him should the Cowboys take a back with their 2nd or 3rd round picks (prospects such as Charbonnet/McBride/Bigsby/Bijan’s running mate Roschon Johnson), though cant see it myself. It is worth noting that Dallas have swapped Kellen Moore for Brian Schottenheimer at offensive Co-ordinator and Schottenheimer is known for his allegiances towards hammering the ground game, so it may not be out of the realms of possibility that they use a premium pick on a Running Back.

After a week or two of the markets being open it then changed to Tight End the Cowboys will be drafting on opening night of the draft. This Tight End class could be one for the ages, with a multitude of prospects with great profiles are ripe for the picking.

This makes the most sense considering Dalton Schultz has left the franchise in Free Agency, leaving the Cowboys with some fairly inexperienced but useful guys in the Tight End room. Jake Ferguson, Peyton Hendershot flashed at various points in 2022, but with the likes of Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid and Darnell Washington (amongst others) available and depending on what type of Tight End they want to bring in will determine who they want.

Mayer and Kincaid are more of your receiver first type tight ends, whilst Washington is more familiar with blocking and is a unit of a man (though that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have receiving skills, he just wasn’t asked to do much of it at Georgia) and is less likely to create separation or be thought of as a deep threat like the other two, though that never stopped Schultz being productive in this offence.

Other considerations are to add further depth at defensive tackle but more realistically, Cornerback. Considering they are picking at 26, the top of the prospects in most positions have gone so Dallas will need to continue to rely on their scouting program to find the diamonds in the rough should they pick further down the charts in those positions. I know they’ve plugged the gap with Gilmore as stated above, but Trevon Diggs is on the last year of his rookie deal, Gilmore was signed to a 1 year deal and everyone else seem to be wildcards with regards to what they may produce in 2023. And you can never have enough depth at Corner, right?

This draft class seems quite deep at EDGE and there a re few decent options at DT should the Cowboys wish to address these positions.Despite trading away some picks for Cooks and Gilmore, Dallas still have 7 draft bullets in the chamber to beef up a few positions. I expect the more valuable picks to cover Tight End, Offensive Line and Cornerback and perhaps Linebacker.

However, should some value appear at Running Back (Bijan only), defensive line or Wide Receiver, they are never afraid to pull the trigger (see Lamb, Parsons from the last few years). I wouldn’t rule out a trade back or two also.

Posted on by — Leave a comment

Fantasy Football; Winners and Losers

Winners

Justin Fields

Last year I made a custom Justin Fields T-Shirt that said “I’m having a Fields Day”. As I currently write this, I am wearing it with absolute bullishness.

Finally, a superstar wide receiver by the name of DJ Moore has come to the aid of Fields to hopefully elevate this passing game after the Bears made a trade out of the #1 pick with the Panthers to acquire the WR.

Darnell Mooney didn’t quite fit the bill as the #1 guy but makes for an absolutely perfect #2 on the team.

Added to his increased weapons, we all know how devastating he was on the ground in 2022. He had over 70 rush yards in 8 of his last 10 games and broke the single-game rushing record for a quarterback (178 yards) against the Dolphins. His end of seasons stats saw him rush for over half of what his passing yards were.

If Fields and the offensive coaches can get a bit more efficient and productive on that side of things and Fields continues to progress as a player, Fields is easily a top 5 QB for me going forward despite always being prone to an interception or two.

Miles Sanders

Miles Sanders has top 10 RB finish potential in 2023, especially if the word on the street is true that the panthers see Sanders as a 3 down back. Sanders reunites with Josh McCown and his running backs coach Duce Staley from his rookie season in Philadelphia so its obvious that Sanders was somewhat of a priority for the Panthers.

Sanders had over 50 missed tackles recorded last season and whilst the juice drips away with every carry logged, he was hardly a workhorse in his time at Philly. He is more than competent in the passing game, vital for the incumbent rookie QB and his room mate Chuba Hubbard is nothing more than a relief type back so it’s all Miles to the moon.

Whilst the Panthers offensive line isn’t quite Phildelphia’s, Donta Foreman sure did get some gaping holes and productive stat lines last season.

I would more than happily give up a mid (1 QB) /late 1st (SF) for Sanders in dynasty at this point and could be a steal in 3rd/4th rounds of redraft, especially if you go zero RB early.

David Montgomery

Montgomery stays in the NFC North and comes to the Lions from the Bears.

Expect Montgomery to pick up the goal line work that saw his predecessor Jamaal Williams get a crazy amount of touches from inside the 10 in 2022 (45!) which helped him amass 17 rushing touchdowns. They say money talks and to give Monty a 3-year deal worth $18 million, with $11 million guaranteed says to me that they’ll give him the bulk of the work from the get go.

The Lions look to be a team on the up and looking to make some noise so should see positive game-scripts and were often in high-scoring games last year. High-scoring games = loads of fantasy points to go around.

Treat Montgomery as a guy on the RB 1/2 border for this upcoming year.

Garrett Wilson

Assuming Aaron Rodgers joins the Jets, it could be all systems go for the offensive Rookie of the year.

Looking at his splits between the QBs that formed the carousel last year, it’s clear Zach Wilson was restricting Wilson’s production capabilities. He still managed to turn in a 1,000 yard season off of 83 receptions but all Wilson needs is someone that can get him the ball and Rodgers is still one of the more accurate guys chucking the rock.

There are enough other weapons such as Lazard and Breece Hall that teams won’t be able to blanket cover Wilson to stifle him (not that it would matter too much). With an upgrade at QB, he should find the endzone a few more times than the 4 from 2022.

He’ll be a high-end WR2 with real possibility of being a WR1 (maybe even THE WR1? Bold prediction) should the Packers and Jets agree to a trade.

Jordan Love Owners

Finally! Those that have “held the bag” with regards to Jordan Love shares, you can let them loose in 2023!

Not saying that he’s a QB1, but considering how long you may have held on to those shares of Love and waiting with bated breath that the prima donna Aaron Rodgers finally walks out on Green Bay, at least you now have a player that is gonna score you some points. Blow the dust off the bench button on your respective apps and slot him into your Superflex spot. He should be your low end QB2/3 on your roster in Superflex leagues. It’s not much, but it’s better than a goose egg.

Shout out to those who held him since the rookie drafts!

Other Notable Winners:

Rhamondre Stevenson – Damien Harris gone, replaced by James Robinson. Does have some other 2nd year guys but should see a decent chunk of the load.

Tony Pollard – Zeke gone, replaced by Rojo. Cowboys may draft a bigger back but it looks a sthough pollard gets the keys in 2023.

Nico Collins – Whilst they brought in Schultz and have other guys there like Robert Woods from the Titans and Metchie possibly returning, I don’t think the Texans invest in a WR with premium draft capital in the draft. See if you can get him for a mid to late 2nd rounder in dynasty as he’ll be a good depth piece, especially if the QB they take smashes it.

Sleeper Alert

Samaje Perine – decent deal for Perine who produced in a full-time role when Mixon was out for the Bengals. Javonte Williams is no shoo-in to be ready to go week 1 so could be a cheap pickup and may even be on waivers right now. He could muscle his way into a timeshare and way outproduce his value.

Losers

De’Andre Swift

A rollercoaster of emotions no doubt in the Swift camp with the highs of seeing Jamaal Williams leave the Lions, but to then see David Montgomery come through the turnstiles at Ford Field no doubt saw his thoughts crash through the floor.

Swift is oft injured and whilst a really good, talented football player the Lions clearly can’t rely on him and have shown as much through their actions of the deal that D-Mont got as above.

Mike Evans/Chris Godwin

Going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield/Kyle Trask is like going from eating at a 5-star Michelin restaurant to eating off the floor.

Mike Evans’s 1,000 receiving yard streak is under threat and the ceilings of both he and Chris Godwin have reduced significantly with the Quarterback change in Tampa.

Purely because neither of the aforementioned QBs are going to throw in the vicinity of what Tom Brady did over the past few years (Brady threw over 700 balls last season!). The quality of targets will decrease as they won’t be as accurate and they are likely to score fewer points/have fewer trips to the redzone compared with the GOAT’s numbers.

Godwin is saved somewhat in PPR formats due to his role and Mayfield was able to find Jarvis Landry back in Cleveland so should be a low-ceiling WR2. Evans might even be a touchdown dependant WR3 in 2023 who may only be of use in bestball. Welp.

Michael Gallup

It’s commonly quite tough to hit the ground running after coming back from an ACL injury and you do find the first season back takes a bit of time to find your game.

That being said, Gallup may have lost his spot as the #2 in the depth chart at WR as the Cowboys have traded for Brandin Cooks so it seems the Cowboys aren’t going to gamble on Gallup being able to turn things around.

Added to this, the Cowboys make it clear they want to run the ball and will be a run-heavy offence in 2023. He should be a late-round bestball pick and will definitely be a guy that has 1 or 2 big games due to the high-powered nature of the offence, but good luck trying to identify when those will be.

Other losers to note:

Alvin Kamara – Jamaal Williams should continue his goalline trick for the saints, Kamara was already battling Hill for rushing TDs…And he may start the season suspended.

Dameon Pierce – Singletary joins the backfield and poses a problem to his workload. Pierce was great in his rookie year but Singletary who is much more competent in pass protection could take a chunk of a small fantasy scoring pie in Houston.

Posted on by — Leave a comment

Super Bowl Antepost Betting by Full10Bets

Long term Ante post bets are not for everyone. There’s only a small percentage of people that immediately pull up Super Bowl outright markets as soon as the season has finished. I find myself in that small percentage as this is where value can be found, especially if you are looking for teams that you think will improve considerably in the offseason not only in the draft, but in the impending free agency “frenzy” starting next week.

After tipping the Philadelphia Eagles last year (amongst some other picks that worked out not quite so well) as well as an indication that the Jags aren’t far away, I’ve decided to take an early look at some teams that could give you a decent run for your money at decent prices.

Jacksonville Jaguars – 28/1

It’s only right that I start with the Jaguars as I mentioned them in an ante post piece last year as one to keep an eye on. Whilst the price could’ve been a bit more juicy had they not made the playoffs after coming from the clouds to win the AFC South and also their wildcard round win against the Chargers, there is certainly plenty to like about how they’ve righted the ship with Doug Pederson after Urban Meyer’s car crash of an attempt and as a non T-Law believer, he could be on the path to proving me wrong.

If the upward trajectory continues with this team, 28/1 could look quite big.

They are in a terrible division where the Titans seemed to be regressing and could hit the reset button at any time with Henry and Tannehill looking like they are near the end of their roads, the Colts look certain to do the same and draft a rookie QB in this year’s draft but have an overpaid offensive line relative to their levels of performance and the Texans….yeaaaah.

It seems that it is almost certain that they’ll reach the playoffs, and host a game, again this year and at this stage, that’s all you can ask for. The Jags were top 10 in a lot of offensive metrics in 2023 and ended the regular season with 6 wins out of 7, taking down the likes of Dallas,

Calvin Ridley looks set to return to the NFL in 2023 after his suspension relating to gambling and adds another dimension to an offence with the franchise-tagged Evan Engram who has career highs in receptions and yards, similar comments apply to the big free agency signing from last year Christian Kirk. Travis Etienne lived up to his 1st round draft capital in his first taste of NFL action.

The defence, young and hungry led by linebackers Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd will need to improve as a unit on their 2022 performances in order to get to the big game.

It will seem weird not seeing Jacksonville early in the NFL draft order over the next 5-10 (barring injuries/trades etc), but I’m sure their fans (both in the US and UK) will not mind one bit.

New York Jets – 24/1 (VBet)

The Jets seem certain to upgrade the Quarterback position this offseason. Zach Wilson linked to moves away, Aaron Rodgers has said he’ll be playing there and if just waiting for the teams to sort out his trade,

The Jets put up some fantastic defensive performances last year and in only 3 games did teams score 27 points or more on them (2 of which were playoffs teams last season). Gang green amassed a 7-10 record. 6 of those wins came before their week 10 bye. Wins at Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Green Bay and Denver on paper don’t look that impressive considering the state of those teams, but as Jets fans who have suffered for long enough, it’s at least a signal of intent from Robert Saleh’s men that things are looking up. A home victory vs the Bills was their statement victory just before their bye and succumbed to issues with the QBs as well as the carousel along with the season-ending injury to Breece Hall, who looked explosive and should be ready from the get go in 2023 provided his ACL injury doesn’t see him lose any of that.

Their Wide Receiver room is varied and talented with the newly crowned offensive rookie of the year Garrett Wilson leading the way but have a lot of capable players for Rodgers to utilise should he join.

If they can stop the bleeding on teams rushing on them, they could easily challenge the Bills for the AFC East. Sauce Gardner proved every bit of his 4th overall pick landing the defensive rookie award and the combination with him and DJ Reed proved hard to beat with any ease.

The price is a bit short for my liking, but if Aaron Rodgers walks through the door, you’ll see it tumble further (as indicated by only Vbet having 24/1 with everywhere else a lot shorter).

Cleveland Browns – 40/1

Bit of a harder case to make here and the Browns threatened to throw their promising last few years out the window with the trade for Deshaun Watson however, if Watson manages to shake off the rest of his rust and find some sort of his old Texans form, there is a path that finds the Browns into the playoffs. Lamar Jackson looks certain to be heading for the exit door in Baltimore and the Steelers don’t convince me with that offensive line. The Bengals will be around for a few years but they are beatable as proved by their victory against them at home with Jacoby Brissett.

They too have enough pieces on offence and defence that warrant consideration at the prices but won’t get a chance to add to their roster in the 1st round of this year’s draft and aren’t sitting pretty with cap space.

Seattle Seahawks – 66/1

Geno Smith has just signed a deserved contract with the Seahawks and will lead the team once again next season. The Seahawks played some really good football last season, something which is synonymous with Pete Carroll coached teams. Kenneth Walker fit like a glove at running back and run his legs into the ground behind an offensive line that had two rookie tackles that played beyond expectations and could provide solid foundation for the Seahawk’s notorious love for the run game, whilst Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf continued to do what they do.

They have 2 1st and 2nd round picks courtesy of Denver which will help them beef up the defence once more as it seems their 2022 class on the offensive side was a big success.

One to watch: Detroit Lions – 33/1

There seems to be a theme for all the teams that have found their way into this shortlist, teams where the fanbases have suffered for a long long time. The Detroit Lions probably can argue for the longest about that particular element but the pieces are starting to fit together for Dan Campbell’s team and whilst Jared Goff is not going to win any team a Super Bowl, they have pieces on both sides of the ball which can be built upon. Pick 18 in this year’s draft may not get them a QB that is the highest on their big boards and they’ve committed to Goff this year, but that may be a blessing in disguise as there are plenty of Quarterbacks in this year’s class that may allow them to take one and let sit for a year.

Posted on by — Leave a comment

F10Y Betting; Super Bowl Novelty Bets; #SuperBowl #SBLVII

It’s officially Super Bowl week and as we look forward to the big one in Glendale, Arizona we want to first have a look at the stupid punts available for the game, and of course, there are more than ever in the week building up to the game.

There’s a myriad of markets available, mainly in the UK on SkyBet although PaddyPower will offer a few markets as well – After checking this, apparently, there are sod all places offering markets on Novelty bets for the Super Bowl, which is a little tedious. I’ll keep a lookout on other sites, but for now pretty much everything on this post will be Skybet.

So, let’s have a nose through from beginning to end and see if there’s anything we can jump on.

Final note before this – KEEP AN EYE ON TWITTER AND MOVE QUICKLY – There will be people leaking information from rehearsals, so you can get some easy wins before the action starts if you work quickly.

Obviously, go easy on these markets, they are stupid, and good for a bit of fun, so don’t go staking stupid amounts on things even after the inevitable leak.

Gambleaware.org

Pre-Game

Coin Toss

History; Because it’s DEFINITELY a predictive thing… 29-27 to Tails, the last two have been Heads leading them to 6 in the last 10 years.

Out of interest, weirdly the winner of the Coin Toss tends to lose the game – In fact, the last NINE winners of the coin toss have gone on to lose the game, it makes no sense, but there we are. – That is a bet-able market – “Will the coin toss winner win the game” – Obviously the no seems like the way to go there. 10/11 on both sides on PaddyPower.

Now, I have requested a market that SkyBet priced up last year, which was simply what the Chiefs (as the designated away team) will call – I believe they’ll call Tails, there’s not a whole lot out there but it seems like they tend to lean that way… The only way to get on that at the moment is “Chiefs to win the toss, Coin to land Tails” or “Eagles to win the Toss, coin to land on heads” – Both at 5/2, so that works out as a little profit. – I have requested just what they’ll call, I’m hoping they’ll go near evens on Tails.

National Anthem

Of course the most fun you can have, and easily the most easily corrupted, if you’re VERY quick is the length of the National Anthem, we’ve got a fella singing it this year, a Country singer by the name of Chris Stapleton, the length has gone over in recent years with a bevvy of ladies singing the anthem, I’m actually tempted to go under the length this year.

It opened at 2min 02seconds and is now up to 2mins 07 seconds – BUT the key here is to keep an eye on Twitter during the week. Someone WILL post a recording from outside the stadium and tell you exactly how long the anthem is.

Opening Kick-off to be a touchback?

In most games the opening kick-off will be a touchback, but the Super Bowl is a little different, it’s a brand spanking new ball that’s untouched before the kick-off, so it’s harder and doesn’t travel as far… last year the Rams vs Bengals was NOT a touchback. I’d be leaning to no touchback at plus money – 11/8 on 888 seems all right.

Half-Time Show – Rihanna

That’s the pre-game stuff looked at, now on to the Half Time show, which this year sees Rihanna break her 5-year hiatus from performing to come back in the big time in Arizona.

Again, of course, you want to keep an eye on Twitter during the week as someone may well leak what the 1st/last song will be, but we’ll have a little look at it here, why the hell not…

It looks like “Don’t stop the Music” has been taking money since the markets opened and is now into favouritism to open the show. I would assume that Umbrella would be closing the show, but it looks like I’m not the only person expecting that with it the fave for the final song of the set. Or former leader here at Full10yards.com Tim, was looking for Disturbia – A song which isn’t listed in many sites in the states.

Total Songs

Over is the usual go-to on total songs, they tend to play a minute or so of each, o9.5 is 4/5, so a slight lean according to the odds on that side of things.

Appear on stage

Rihanna – Feminist icon and hero, will she really allow a man to appear on stage? Even JayZ who has helped organise this show? Hmmm, it’s not something I’d be backing, especially at odds-on for him, Drake is at 1/2 as well, please god no, or her fella A$AP Rocky is there at 5/2 to get on stage.

You can’t bet on it in the UK, but putting your mortgage on Cleavage at 1/5 would have been a banker, surely?!

Post-Game

Gatorade Shower

So, maybe not post-game but the end of the game at least, you can obviously pick the colour of the Gatorade thrown over the winning coach and we’ve got two fairly recent Super Bowl winners here, the Eagles had Yellow a few years back when they beat the Pats, while the Chiefs went for Orange when beating the 49ers three years ago.

Same coaching staff for the Chiefs, different for the Eagles, but Yellow looks like it could be the one to bet on here – 3/1 isn’t bad on that I guess, and it was Yellow which went on Sirianni when they won the NFC Championship game a couple of weeks ago

Posted on by — Leave a comment

F10Y Betting; Week 8 Best Bets

We did it! We finally did it! Week 7 of the season produced the first 4-0 week for the boys on the betting podcast as all 4 of their selections came in, and all without too much bother or stress as well, which was nice.

Callum chose the Cardinals on Thursday night to get us off to a flyer, Adam took the under in the Giants and Lions game and 30 points is definitely under the 49 which was on offer, Jack’s team lost the game but covered the 6.5 spread as the Browns kept it tight against the Ravens and Liam won again to take himself to 6-1 on the season with the Chiefs destroying the 49ers on Sunday Night.

An excellent night after a rough few weeks for the Betting guys. Onwards and upwards on the season now!

You can of course give a listen to the podcast and find out what they think of every game this weekend as well as a little more information on the best bets listed below, as well as all the other fantastic podcasts that the Full10Yards crew put out each week at the Full 10 Yards feed wherever you find your podcasts.

https://anchor.fm/full10yards/episodes/F10Y-Betting-Week-8-Best-Bets-e1pt8pq to listen to this weeks pod.

Titans -2.5 @ Texans

Liam (@_LiamHorsley)

The top of the AFC South Titans are giving up less than a field goal against the 1 win Texans? That seems a little off to me. Ryan Tannehill is nursing a probable high ankle sprain so may not be as mobile, but why would the Titans care? They don’t throw the ball anyway so expect 150 yards and 2 TDs from Derrick Henry and a stout defensive performance from the Titans to get the win here.

The Texans may well be sellers come the trade deadline so won’t want to get their star(s) injured, so Brandin Cooks may not get too involved in this one, other than him they’re mainly Dameon Pierce and hoping for deep shots. It’s a talent-poor roster which is likely to get poorer.

Bengals -3 @ Browns – 8/11ish

Jack (@JackT_95)

It looks like the Bengals have found their groove again as they put up 35 points against the Falcons last week, mainly in the first half after they coasted to the win. It could just be the defenses their facing but they have moved to Shotgun snaps for over 95% of the game now and it seems to be paying dividends as they’ve been far better throwing and running. The Bengals defense is still yet to allow a second-half TD from any team this year and will look to keep that up here.

The Browns have had good success against the Bengals, and that’s mainly through Nick Chubb on the ground. Expect him to get 20+ carries this week as they look to trade Kareem Hunt. Other than Chubb they’ve been relatively inept with Jacoby Brissett at QB, there’s no real connection with anyone other than David Njoku and it seems unlikely he’ll suit up for this through injury.

The Bengals are the class here and should cover.

Cardinals +3.5 @ Vikings

Callum (@CallumJDSquires)

I love Kyler Murray. I hate Kirk Cousins – What more is there to say about this game?

The Cardinals finally put up a good performance last Thursday so get a mini-bye coming into this game against a team who had their proper bye week last week. Deandre Hopkins is back and was installed immediately as the leader in receptions and yards, Eno Benjamin looked great on the ground and Keontay Ingram looked a lot better in his second game as well. It was their defense that bamboozled Andy Dalton in their previous match and they should create turnovers against Cousins.

The Vikings are a fraud at 5-1, they’ve been very lucky in their games and unless they come out of their bye with some serious changes their luck may well run out here. Cousins is fine, Jefferson one of the best WRs in the league and Dalvin Cook is good but they’re quite shallow outside of those two offensive stars and the Cardinals should be able to slow them down.

Dolphins vs. Lions u51.5

Adam (@TouchdownTips)

I took an Under last week involving the Lions and it was an easy winner so I’ll be taking them to be involved in a lower scoring game again this week against a Dolphins defense who have been very solid, and their offense which while it puts up big yards with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle has struggled to put up points with any of their QBs.

Other than that remarkable comeback against the Ravens, the Dolphins haven’t put up more than 21 points all season, and I think they win here, so by that logic the Lions will score fewer. The Lions were a solid OVER team early in the year but since the goose-egg against the Patriots seem to have been found out a little.

My one worry would be Swift and St. Brown both fully healthy, but even though I trust the Dolphins defense to restrict the scoring against them.

Posted on by — Leave a comment

F10Y Betting; Week 7 Best Bets

Adam finally got off the schnide and got himself a winner last week as the Vikings took care of business in Miami, there was a scare as Teddy Bridgewater came in early on and put up a fight but the Vikes covered the three points easily enough. Liam took his record to 5-1 for the season after taking the Bengals to win against the Saints, they got themselves in yet another double-digit deficit but came back with Chase scoring twice in the second half.

That was the good of the week, the bad, the Browns lost convincingly to the Patriots while the Jets smashed the Packers at Lambeau meaning they’re off all our lists for the foreseeable future.

You can find our best bets and previews of every game on the slate on the podcast on the Full10Yards feed, found wherever you get podcasts or direct here -: https://anchor.fm/full10yards/episodes/F10Y-Betting-Week-7-Best-bets-and-previews-e1phso5

Cardinals -2.5 vs. Saints

Callum (@CallumJDSquires)

Callum already has his best bet for the week in the books as he took the Cardinals on Thursday night. He loves Kyler Murray and with Deandre Hopkins returning thought they’d have too much for the Saints with Andy Dalton, I believe he predicted a 42-34 win for the home team…

In the end it was the defense of the Cardinals who got them the victory with two pick-6s in consecutive drives turning the tide in the game and taking it away from the Saints.

Browns +6.5 @ Ravens

Jack (@JackT_95)

Jack is a glutton for punishment going in on the Browns getting nearly a TD on the road in Baltimore. Nick Chubb should get a lot of the ball after the failures of Jacoby Brissett last week and that should mean a shorter game, fewer drives and less scoring than many might predict therefore keeping the game relatively close.

The Ravens have somehow found a way to keep games close this year despite having led by double-digits in most of their matches and if they can lose to the Giants then they can lose to anyone.

The Browns have kept the last two matches between the two within 7 points.

Chiefs -2.5 @ 49ers

Liam (@_LiamHorsley)

The Chiefs & Mahomes will be kicking themselves for letting last weeks game against the Bills slip away from them, this is bad news for a banged up 49ers team.

Anytime you can get Mahomes as a favourite of under a FG you simply have to take it, they lead the league in EPA per drop back and welcome back three of their defensive starters for this weeks matchup. Even with the addition of CMC this week I think that Mahomes & Kelce are too good and the 49ers are too banged up. I’d be interested in taking the OVER on the Chiefs team total of 26.5 as well.

Lions @ Cowboys Under 49

The Lions are coming off their bye and should be healthier with Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown both starting, but the Cowboys boast one of the best defenses in the league with arguably the DPOY so far in Micah Parsons and Jared Goff does not deal well with pressure in his face.

Dak Prescott is medically cleared to play and it looks like he will be starting here which is an obvious worry when you’re looking at under on the total, but he looked awful behind the patchwork offensive line in the opener against Tampa before he got injured and you’ve got to think the Lions defense will have worked hard over their bye to get better.

Posted on by — Leave a comment

F10Y BETTING; WEEK 6 BEST BETS

It is already Week 6 of the NFL season, and Adam and the boys are back with their best bets of Week 6. The bye weeks have started with 4 teams missing this week; The Lions, Texans, Titans and Raiders all having an early rest.

It’s safe to say things haven’t quite gone to plan so far this season, especially for Adam who has yet to win a “best bet” so far… Not good at all, the Steelers getting smashed last week giving Mike Tomlin his largest defeat as head coach and providing the largest margin of loss for the Steelers since 1989, meaning another loss for our host.

The Dolphins were done in as soon as Teddy Bridgewater went down on the first drive, tough luck on that one. But the Lions selection didn’t go to plan as they were shut out by the Patriots.

Fortunately, we have Liam here and he moved to 4-1 on the season with the Titans winning against the Commanders, to cover the 1.5 spread although that came down to a last-minute interception.

We’re back again for more punishment as they make their Week 6 picks, and you can listen to our thoughts on this weeks pod – https://spotifyanchor-web.app.link/e/PjDy6MFn6tb

BENGALS – 1.5 @ SAINTS

Liam (@_LiamHorsley)

A return to Louisiana and the Caesars Superdome for Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase after their success in this stadium for LSU, it hasn’t clicked so far this season for them but we think it’ll only take one big game for things to click once more. Tee Higgins missed practice again with his ankle injury which is worrying for the team, but they ran well last week and should be able to get the ball moving against a Saints defense which hasn’t impressed as expected so far.

The Saints could be without Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas who didn’t practice this week either, but are hopefully Chris Olave will play, if not then it may well be another healthy dose of Taysom Hill. It is an Andy Dalton revenge game but the Bengals defense is yet to allow a TD in the second half this season.

Everything is leaning the Bengals way and with the spread under a field goal we’re taking them to win here.

VIKINGS -3 @ DOLPHINS

Adam (@TouchdownTips)

This isn’t the most in-depth handicap in the world, but it’s pretty simple really. The Dolphins are coming into this one probably starting their third-choice QB in Skylar Thompson as they seem to be saying that even if Teddy Bridgewater does clear concussion protocol, which isn’t a guarantee anymore, he’ll be the backup behind the kid.

Seems like a weird move to me, but here we are… they actually moved the ball fairly well and the final score against the Jets was a little misleading.

The Vikings are a fine team and Justin Jefferson should put up big numbers again against a defense with Xavien Howard not at 100%. It’s a 1pm kick-off so we know that Kirk Cousins will be fine and while their defense isn’t anything special it can generate pressure and get to the QB.

BROWNS -2.5 VS. PATRIOTS

Callum (@CallumJDSquire)

The Browns are the better team at most positions in this one, Jacoby Brissett is better than Bailey Zappe, the Browns pass rush is better, the Browns running back(s) are better, pass-catching is even better, and that’s saying something.

They don’t have the best coach in this one, but the talent on the pitch should be enough for them to beat this incarnation of the Patriots.

PACKERS -6.5 VS JETS

Jack (@JackT_95)

The Jets are over-rated coming off a couple of wins against the Steelers with a rookie QB and the Dolphins with a 3rd string QB. They’ve been fine, but they are still who they are and that’s a below-average team on the whole, although Sauce Gardner is proving to be worth his lefty draft position.

The Packers somehow gave up a big lead in London against the Giants last week and will be looking to bounce back now on home turf at Lambeau. Can you really imagine the mighty Packers losing to both New York teams in consecutive weeks? We can’t see Aaron Rodgers letting that happen.

Packers win and cover less than a TD.

Posted on by — Leave a comment

F10Y Betting; Week 5 Best Bets

The NFL is over too quickly! We’re already going to hit the quarter point of the season as we go through Week 5, and Adam and the boys are back this week with their favourite bets for the slate.

The host of the pod, the self-proclaimed TouchdownTips is still looking for a win on the season after the Browns did all they could to lose to the Falcons last week while the record for the group as a whole needs some improvement sitting at around 0.500 on the year. Let’s hope for a bit of luck this week and a 4-0 Sunday.

Check out this weeks pod for 45 mins of info on every game this weekend

Steelers +14.5 @ Bills

Adam (@TouchdownTips)

As you all probably know, I am a Bengals fan, so picking this line as my best bet for the week was a tough one, but I just had to. The Steelers biggest underdog the Steelers have been in the last 30 years is 13.5 in 1992… This game was up at 14.5 when recorded the pod, I had to take them getting over two TDs against anyone.

Sure they have a rookie QB who will threw up some interceptions as his name suggests, but he’ll get big plays out of Pickens and Diontae Johnson, and maybe even Chase Claypool.

The Bills played the Ravens last week and have the Chiefs next week, they won’t be too bothered about running up the score against these chumps.

I had to take the Steelers +14.5

Dolphins -3 (3.5) @ Jets

Jack (@JackT_95)

Sure, he’s a Dolphins fan, and it might be a homer pick, but we fully agree that the Dolphins are the correct side at the Metlife on Sunday.

The Jets welcomed back Zach Wilson who performed adequately in what looked like a loss before leading a game-winning drive against the hapless Steelers last week. They’ll be OK, but they’re probably over-rated at the moment after a c couple of miracle wins against AFC North opposition.

The Dolphins are idiots for how they dealt with Tua, but the downgrade to Teddy Bridgewater isn’t significant and he’ll hit those deep shots to Hill and Waddle while their run game should be fine led by Mostert.

The Dolphins blitz a lot and Wilson doesn’t deal with that at all.

Lions +4.5 @ Patriots

Callum (@CallumJDSquire)

Callum loves the Lions, probably more than his Dolphins team in fairness, he’s always on them, and he’s right to do so as the Lions seem to constantly cover the spread. This is the first game they’ve played outside this year but they’re going up against a 4th round rookie QB making his first start with barely any weapons in the passing game.

The run game for the Patriots has been very effective and they’ll put up points but the protection gifted to Jared Goff has him and the offense purring and they’ll be able to match and probably surpass any scoring the Patriots get in this one.

Titans -1.5 @ Commanders

Liam (_LiamHorsley)

Worryingly I like all of our picks this week as this was another line I was interested in. Sure the Titans aren’t exciting or pulling up any trees this year but the Commanders are terrible and even with the return of Brian Robinson from being shot in the pre-season we can’t see them putting up enough points to win against anyone, let alone one of the better coached teams in the league.

Derrick Henry as always will be the focus of the Titans attack and they’ve been getting him increasingly involved in the passing game which makes sense to let him get up a head of steam with the ball in his hands. They did lose Treylon Burks but Tannehill moves the ball well around his team and should be able to do it against a poor Commanders team.

Posted on by — Leave a comment

F10Y Betting; Week 3 Best Bets

A rough week for our selections last week with just Callum securing a win as the Lions pulled through and once again covered the spread leading to a win for them.

I (Adam) was feeling smug for most of the game, but the Raiders managed to give away a huge lead to lose in OT as Kyler Murray took over, Jacks under was dead as soon as the kick-off was returned for a TD, and Liam’s pick of the Bucs over unfortunately never looked like getting there, so we’re onwards and upwards to week 3 of the season.

Find more detail about our best bets and a look at all the other bets in the Full10Yards betting podcast on all pod-catchers or here – https://spotifyanchor-web.app.link/e/WDXQCc2Qytb

NameWinsLossesOverall
Adam020
Liam111
Callum111
Jack111

Ravens -2 @ Patriots

Jack Tuffy (@JackT_95)

I have watched both these teams face off (and lose) to my Dolphins and there is no comparison to who the better team is. The Ravens hammered the Dolphins for 3 quarters and only for the speed of Waddle and Hill they would be 2-0. 

Speaking of speed, the Patriots have no weapons to take advantage of the poor Baltimore pass defense, also the Ravens are the most blitz-heavy team in the league, something Mac Jones isn’t comfortable with. On the other side of the ball, it’s obvious that Lamar is playing at an MVP level and I have no doubt he will help the Ravens win this game with relative ease.

San Francisco -1 @ Denver Broncos

Adam Walford (@TouchdownTips)

The main handicap for this game for me is the huge coaching mismatch on display with Kyle Shanahan having proven his acumen for years while Nathaniel Hackett has had a less than perfect start for the Broncos with the home crowd having to count down the play clock so they don’t take delay of game penalties. It’s been messy.

Trey Lance is out for the season so Jimmy Garoppolo returns to the fray and the line, if anything has shortened on that news, he obviously knows how to run the offense and get them to the playoffs and I don’t think they’ll miss a step in beating the Broncos in Denver this weekend. – I don’t mind the under either in fairness.

Cincinnati Bengals -5ish @ NY Jets

Callum Squires (@CallumJDSquires)

The Jets are in an all-time letdown spot following their late heroics in Cleveland last week. The Bengals have better weapons on the outside than the Browns do, so Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase could feast here as Amari Cooper did for Cleveland last week.

The Jets are not a good team and Cincinnati most definitely are, despite a horrendous start. Water eventually finds its level, and the Bengals are primed to bounce back in style here. Burrow will re-find his groove and take Gang Green apart. Bengals all the way.

Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 @ Colts

Liam Horsley (@_LiamHorsley)

He might be an out and proud Chiefs fan, but this isn’t entirely a homer pick, there’s a number of reasons for taking the Chiefs here, first the Colts stink, they’ve had a terrible start to the season, can’t generate pressure or protect Matt Ryan long enough for him to do anything with his apparently weak noodle-arm which can’t make passes more than 20 yards downfield. They will be hoping Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce are back but it doesn’t look like both will be.

Secondly – Mahomes has NEVER lost indoors, and unsurprisingly that means he’s got the best QBR of any current QB at an indoor stadium, add to that the fact he carves up Gus Bradley defenses (recently the Raiders last year) and you’re looking at 35+ for the Chiefs – I can’t see the Colts getting to 30 and covering the spread here.

Posted on by — Leave a comment

F10Y Betting; Week 2 best bets

Not the worst start to the season from the 4 betting guys last week, a slight loss from a 2-2 start. Unfortunately, the Eagles didn’t manage to cover the spread as they allowed the Lions to score a lot late on in the game and Callum also lost due to the Saints not doing quite as well as expected against a Falcons team who were a lot better than expected.

Liam and Jack won both of their bets with relative ease though as the Buccaneers destroyed the Cowboys to cover the 2.5-point spread while the Dolphins and Patriots game was never in doubt of hitting 47 points so the 46.5 was an easy under.

Check out the Week 2 betting pod to find out their opinion on the rest of the week’s games

NameWinsLossesOverall
Adam010
Liam101
Callum010
Jack101

Of course, you can check out our audio podcast and get a little more insight on every single game each week – F10Y Betting week 2

Week 2 Best bets:

Buccaneers @ Saints OVER 44 points

LIAM HORSLEY (@_LIAMHORSLEY)

This pick goes against the grain of the last couple of times these two teams have met but I am betting that Tom Brady can finally get the better of a Dennis Allen run defense. On paper, these can be two of the best offenses in the NFC this season.

The Buccaneer’s run game looks back to its best and I am banking on Tom Brady to improve on that red zone performance from the Cowboys game. The Saints’ offense was purring in the second half of the Falcons game, this wide receiver room looks the real deal and can help them put some points on the board. My numbers make this total 48 so I will take the OVER 44 all day long.

My favourite prop for this weekend is Devante Adams OVER 7.5 receptions. The Raiders and Carr use Adams almost identically to how Matt LeFleur used him last season.

Raiders -5.5 vs. Cardinals

Adam Walford (@TouchdownTips)

It was a tough struggle trying to find a spread I liked this week so I settled on this one at Las Vegas.

The Raiders lost to their divisional opponent Chargers last week but things weren’t all that bad, as Davante Adams looked good on his debut finishing the game with 141 and a TD from 10 receptions. I didn’t think he’d be hogging the majority of the targets, but he had nearly as many himself as every other player combined.

You’ve got to think that will largely be the game-plan here against a far worse defense here on Sunday. The Cardinals secondary is average, their pass-rush isn’t exactly outstanding so Derek Carr should get a little time to find his bestest bud from college.

The main thing for me though is the lack of weapons for the Cardinals and their offensive line woes mean that Kyler will be under pressure constantly making it tough to hit the few targets he’s got. Maxx Crosby and co. should get home frequently.

Miami Dolphins @Baltimore Ravens under 45 points.

Jack Tuffy (@JackT_95)

Surprisingly, my best bet this weekend involves the Dolphins. New head coach Mike McDaniel had a good as debut as you could ask for beating the master Bill Belichick 20-7. The Dolphins were incredible on defence, but the offence was only OK. One great throw from Tua to Jaylen Waddle was the only offensive touchdown they scored and I can see the Ravens defence being another tough match up for Tua.

Last year the Dolphins blitzed Lamar all game and had huge success. He only managed to put 10 points on the board and I’d be shocked if the Dolphins defence don’t have much of the same gameplan. With all this in mind and both head coaches stating they need to establish the run better after week 1, the unders should hit .

Detroit Lions -2 vs. Washington Commanders

(@CallumJDSquires)

It’s the first time the Lions have been favored in a game for 24 matches. That was, unsurprisingly, the longest streak in the league but they’d been covering the spread well as Underdogs, Callum think they’ll do the same as favourites here with Jared Goff ably protected behind his offensive line.

They will need D’Andre Swift to be healthy for this to come to fruition so keep an eye on his fitness this weekend.

Carson Wentz isn’t very good and will make mistakes and for that reason, Lions win and cover.