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Celebrate good times, come on!

In the first week of October, Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Andrei Iosivas successfully appealed against a $5,000 fine for pretending to fire a bow and arrow in a touchdown celebration, having scored against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead in Week 2. The spur-of-the-moment gesture [pictured] was deemed to be ‘violent’ by league officials, even though the pantomime move was aimed at the sky, not at anyone. Having won the appeal, the powers that be are now expected to tweak their rules on such celebrations, which is a big win for those of us who like a bit of theatre after a score.  

After all, touchdown celebrations have become one of the most entertaining and expressive parts of American football. These displays of joy, retribution, defiance and even humour have evolved over the years from modest celebrations to complex, coordinated team dances and elaborate individual routines. Scoring is now just one part of the equation in this new battleground of showmanship.

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What are the rules?

The league’s guidelines are designed to allow players to express themselves while maintaining a level of professionalism and sportsmanship. Over the years, its stance on celebrations has evolved so before we go any further, let’s look at what’s currently allowed and what isn’t.

Allowed

  • Group celebrations, such as choreographed dance routines or acting out skits, are permitted
  • Players can use the football as a prop in creative and entertaining ways
  • Players can engage in poses or gestures
  • Players can now go to the ground during their celebration to make ‘snow angels’, crawl or lie down
  • Celebrations must not significantly delay the game

Not allowed

  • Taunting, mocking or disrespecting opponents or officials can lead to a penalty
  • Players cannot use any other object (other than a football) as a prop
  • Celebrations that are sexually suggestive, overly aggressive or vulgar are strictly prohibited. This includes gestures like mimicking firearms or weapons (this is where Iosivas fell fowl of the rules)
  • Excessively long celebrations will be flagged
  • While players can interact with fans, players cannot enter the stands or excessively interact with spectators in a way that may compromise public safety
  • Celebrations that involve violent or reckless behaviour, such as slamming the football into the stands or acting aggressively, are not allowed

Penalties for violations

Violations of celebration rules typically result in a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty and as we’ve seen, players can also be fined by the league after the game.

The early days: Muted and modest

In the early years of the NFL, touchdown celebrations were largely subdued. Players would typically hand the ball back to the referee or briefly raise their arms in victory. The conservative tone of the league, combined with a focus on professionalism, meant that anything beyond a handshake or a pat on the back was usually viewed as vulgar and excessive.

However, that changed when New York Giants receiver Homer Jones became the first player to ‘spike’ the ball, when he scored a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles in October 1965. His move was revolutionary at the time, an unapologetic act of exuberance that would lay the foundation for everything we’ve seen since. The spike eventually became the go-to move for many players across the league while some, like Patriots and Buccaneers tight end Rob Gronkowski, turned his forceful ‘power spike’ [pictured] into a signature celebration.

However, rather than taking pride in kickstarting this new aspect of the game, Homer Jones didn’t like what his end zone spike turned into. He saw it spawning a whole raft of other celebrations and disapproved. “It caused so many obscene things and confusing things, I wish I hadn’t started it,” he told The New York Times in 2012. Maybe he was recalling the time Vikings legend Randy Moss pretended to lower his pants and moon the Green Bay fans at Lambeau Field?

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Signature dance moves

As the NFL entered the 1970s and 1980s, touchdown celebrations became more creative, with several players inventing iconic dance moves that would become a part of their brand. One of the early pioneers was Billy ‘White Shoes’ Johnson, a wide receiver and return specialist for the Houston Oilers. Johnson’s signature dance, the ‘Funky Chicken’, delighted fans and set the benchmark for others to beat.

Another celebration king was Cincinnati Bengals fullback Ickey Woods, whose ‘Ickey Shuffle’ became an instant sensation during the 1988 season. During his end zone dance, Woods held the football with his right hand and shuffled to the right, then switched the ball to his left hand and shuffled to the left. After making three hops back to the right, he spiked the ball. Over the years, the dance was featured in TV commercials, made a brief appearance on the hit show How I Met Your Mother and was even the subject of a song by funk legend Bootsy Collins.

In the ‘90s, Hall of Fame wide receiver Deion Sanders brought some of his personal flair to touchdown celebrations with a shuffle of his own. Sanders would high-step into the end zone and finish with his ‘Prime Time Shuffle’, which epitomised his bravado and athleticism. According to The Huffington Post, Sanders drew inspiration from the music video for the MC Hammer song Good To Go.

While we’re taking dancing, New York Giants wide receiver Victor Cruz could cut some shapes too, commemorating nearly every touchdown he scored with a quick burst of salsa in the end zone [pictured]. Cruz, who is of Puerto Rican descent, danced to honour his grandmother, who apparently taught him the moves. Other examples have included Johnny Morton and Golden Tate both doing ‘The Worm’ in the end zone and the Bengals’ enigmatic Chad ‘Ochocinco’ Johnson busting out a bit of Riverdance-inspired Irish dancing. Talking of which…

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Chad Johnson: Pushing the boundaries

In the 2000s, touchdown celebrations reached new creative heights and few pushed the envelope – and their luck – more than Chad Johnson. Over the years, he pretended to propose to a cheerleader, played golf with an end zone pylon, took over a TV camera to film his teammates (Tyreek Hill has also done this) and donned a Hall of Fame jacket with ‘Future H.O.F. 20??’ written on the back.

Johnson’s flair for the dramatic made every touchdown celebration an event in itself and kept fans guessing – and commentators on their toes. His flashy moves and bold celebrations often challenged the NFL’s rules on excessive celebration and his repeated fines for breaking these rules led to wider conversations about whether the league was limiting players’ individuality.

The Griddy

In recent years, one of the most popular and instantly recognisable touchdown celebrations has been the Griddy, a dance originating in Louisiana that was brought into the NFL by the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson. After scoring a touchdown, Jefferson’s Griddy – marked by skipping forward while swinging his arms and tapping his heels – became a viral sensation. Fellow LSU alumnus and current Bengals star Ja’Marr Chase has also embraced the Griddy, and both players are now synonymous with the move.

However, not all players can pull it off. Chase’s current teammate, tight end Mike Gesicki, famously attempted the dance while with the Dolphins but failed, and his awkward ‘Goofy Griddy’ became an internet meme [pictured]. Nonetheless, the much-imitated Griddy continues to be a fan favourite across the league, whether executed perfectly or not.

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Imitation: The sincerest form of flattery

Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton was dubbed ‘Superman’ (or ‘SuperCam’) by fans, on account of his superhero-like feats and his ability to leap into the end zone. In fact, he often celebrated a TD rush or pass by mimicking Clark Kent, pretending to rip open his shirt, arms wide open, to reveal that he was Superman [pictured].

Playing on his own name, whenever Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle scores a touchdown, he celebrates by waddling in a circle, just like a penguin. Maybe it’s not the most intimidating celebration but it’s fun nonetheless. And while we’re taking birds, the Atlanta Falcons’ ‘Dirty Bird’, made famous by running back Jamal Anderson in the late Nineties, became a symbol of the team’s swagger during their Super Bowl run. The dance, a wild flapping of his arms like wings, was instantly embraced by fans and ‘The Dirty Birds’ has now become part of the franchise’s identity.

Elsewhere, Odell Beckham Jr. has pretended to urinate like a dog while former Denver Broncos running back Terrell Davis would imitate a soldier, standing up straight and saluting his teammates and the crowd. The ‘Mile High Salute’, as it became known, was inspired in part by No Limit Soldiers by the rap group TRU.

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The group celebration

The NFL’s stance on touchdown celebrations has fluctuated over the years, leading to periods of stricter enforcement of the rules. During the mid-2000s, the league imposed heavy fines for excessive celebrations, limiting group choreography and penalising players for using props, earning the ‘No Fun League’ moniker for stifling players’ creative freedom.

However, in 2017, the NFL relaxed its rules, allowing players more freedom to express themselves in the end zone, so long as the celebrations did not delay the game or involve taunting. This rule change ushered in a new era of coordinated, often humorous group celebrations.

Teams like the Vikings have led the charge in team-wide choreographed celebrations in recent years. They have executed a synchronized game of ‘duck, duck, goose’, played leapfrog [pictured] and recreated a family Thanksgiving dinner, while Dalvin Cook’s teammates recreated a limbo pole that he passed under.

The Seattle Seahawks also garnered a reputation for their team celebrations, often coming together for elaborate skits and well-rehearsed dances, and the Pittsburgh Steelers have also embraced their new-found freedoms, recreating scenes from popular movies, while JuJu Smith-Schuster once played hide and seek with Le’Veon Bell.

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The Lambeau Leap

Taking the interpretation of group celebrations beyond the confines of teammates, another much-loved celebration is the Lambeau Leap, pioneered by Green Bay Packers safety LeRoy Butler in 1993. After returning a fumble for his first-ever touchdown against the Los Angeles Raiders, Butler leapt into the stands at Lambeau Field to celebrate with fans – and the tradition caught on. To this day, Packers players regularly celebrate touchdowns by leaping into the arms of fans in the front row behind the end zone.

Props to the most creative celebrations

Some players took end-zone celebrations to entirely new, unexpected places, using (unapproved) props that earned them a dollar or two in fines for sure.

In 2003, Joe Horn, the New Orleans Saints wide receiver, made headlines when he pulled a hidden cell phone from the goal post padding after scoring a touchdown and pretended to make a call [pictured]. Although fined for his audacity, Horn’s celebration became legendary and this iconic moment was later copied by the Saints’ Michael Thomas. Terrell Owens was also famous for his many and varied celebrations. He joined in with the cheerleaders, lay down to sleep, pretended to be a mime artist and once pulled a Sharpie out of his sock to sign the ball and hand it to a fan.

Taking advantage of the now-relaxed rules, in 2023, Joe Mixon whipped out a coin from his glove to do a coin toss as part of his celebration after scoring a TD against Baltimore. The move highlighted the high emotions within the Cincy camp after the NFL approved a resolution that called for a coin flip to decide the site of a potential Cincinnati–Baltimore playoff game should the Ravens win the Week 18 contest (it wasn’t needed).

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Respect is due

As outlined at the start, touchdown celebrations are not allowed to be disrespectful or mock the opposition. Tyreek Hill was fined many times for his ‘peace sign’ celebration, which was deemed to be taunting, but no one tiptoed along the line between fun and provocative more than the aforementioned Terrell Owens.

For example, upon scoring in a heated game for the 49ers against the Cowboys, he sprinted to midfield to pose on the Dallas Cowboys’ star, head up to the sky and arms aloft. When Dallas scored, one of their own players redressed the balance with a respectful kneel on the team badge. That only upped the ante so when Owens repeated his celebration later in the game after another score, he was knocked to the ground by affronted Cowboys players and a scrum ensued. Never disrespect the star, people…

Part and parcel of today’s NFL

So there you have it: a whistlestop tour of the ongoing evolution of touchdown celebrations in the NFL. They have now transcended mere displays of elation and are now a core part of the game’s culture, allowing players to express themselves and forge a greater connection with fans.

What began as a simple spike to the ground in the 1960s has evolved into a world of choreographed routines, inside jokes and even social commentary. And I think that this ever-changing landscape serves to remind us all that, even in a sport with as many rules and regulations as football, there is always room for a bit of individualism, creativity and fun.

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NFL Draft: Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos get their future QB1 on a historically offence-heavy opening draft night

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The Denver Broncos selected former Oregon quarterback Bo Nix with the 12th pick of the 2024 NFL Draft in Detroit, setting up an intriguing and young quarterback battle this offseason.

A week ago the Broncos’ quarterback room consisted of Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci, fast-forward to Friday morning after night one of the draft and Sean Payton has a pair of 24-year-old quarterbacks who will go to battle for the starting job this offseason in Zach Wilson and Bo Nix.

Was it a reach?

Based on evaluations, you’d say that the pick was a reach at 12th overall and there were incredible players still on the board on both sides of the ball as well as the opportunity to trade back and accumulate draft capital. 

However, with five of the top six quarterbacks already off the board, it wasn’t worth the risk of trading back from 12 with a quarterback that they loved right there in their lap.

All of this while the Las Vegas Raiders and New Orleans Saints were at 13th and 14th overall respectively behind the Broncos and both needed a quarterback long-term. 

What does Bo Nix bring to the Broncos?

The Broncos needed to come out of the draft with a quarterback that Payton could mould into the signal caller who would run his offence just as he wants it to be run, similar to how Brock Purdy operates Kyle Shanahan’s offence in San Fransisco, Nix can have the same role in Denver but with more upside. 

Nix has an excellent processor and comes with incredible experience having started 61 career games in college football across his NCAA career at Oregon and Auburn.

He’s an accurate passer and works well even under pressure, not taking sacks or turning the ball over too much, as well as being extremely productive in the red zone and an efficient two-minute drill operator.

When speaking to the media in the aftermath of the pick Payton sounded like he was in awe of Nix and the traits he’s shown the Broncos throughout the draft process. 

What happens now for Denver? 

Due to staying put at 12 and taking Nix, the Broncos didn’t accumulate any extra draft capital on days two and three of the draft this year. 

So, pending any overnight or in-draft trades the Broncos will have to wait until 76th overall to make their second pick of this year’s draft. 

The roster still has plenty of holes that will need to be filled until this team is competitive in the league and chasing the playoffs again. 

The Broncos may try and package some of their later-round picks, future mid-round picks or even look to trade a player to get into the second round or early third round and get a difference maker on the defensive side of the ball. 

Every level of the defence needs young talent and there is plenty of that at the top of the second round, which might be out of reach unless the Broncos can manage to facilitate a trade-up. 

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Johnny Newton is a premium pass-rushing defensive tackle who fell out of the first round, while Edgerrin Cooper and Junior Colson are good linebackers with true second-round talent.

Cooper DeJean and Kool-Aid McKinstry also sit on the board as the best secondary options, but it is unlikely they reach the Broncos’ range unless they manage to make a big trade-up into the top 10 of the second round.

Does the Nix pick change the prospects of the 2024 Denver Broncos?

It’s unlikely that Nix will come into the team and drastically change its outlook, especially for the near future in 2024, the roster is still a bottom-five group in the league and Nix will need to learn Payton’s offence and adjust to NFL-level play. 

However, it does give the Broncos flexibility heading into next year’s offseason with more free money to go after free agents while also having a potential top-ten pick to take a premium player at a position of need depending on how the team performs. 

Nix brings the Broncos a new dawn at the quarterback position, in particular looking multiple years into the future when this team can surround him with talent while still being on his rookie deal in year two and beyond of his rookie deal.

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2024 NFL Draft: Official Two-Round Mock Draft

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It’s draft day!

To celebrate, it’s time to release my two-round mock draft. So without much further ado, let’s get into the picks.

  1. Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams, QB, USC
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The obvious, home run pick at the top of the draft, everyone knows it’s going to happen, let’s move on!

  1. Washington Commanders – Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
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Many people (including myself) have Drake Maye as QB2 in this draft class, Jayden Daniels seems like the better fit for the system the Washington Commanders will run under offensive coordinator, Kilff Kingsbury. The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner is a good deep passer and a dynamic runner who will be able to extend plays and work better out of the structure of the offence than Maye would, in the immediate term. With Marcus Mariota also on the roster it makes sense to learn off of a veteran with a similar skillset before starting games later in the year as well.

  1. Minnesota Vikings (Via NE) – Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina 
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Trade: NE receives – No. 11, 23 and 2025 1st round pick, MIN receives – no. 3

The first projected trade of this mock draft sees Minnesota package their two first-rounders (received pick 23 in a trade with the Houston Texans), and a 2025 first-round pick to move up and select Drake Maye. Minnesota is a perfect match with Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings team and he doesn’t have to play at all in the first year, being able to sit behind veteran Sam Darnold, who was signed in free agency. As for the Patriots, they have so many needs and won’t be competitive in the AFC East for a while, so the quarterback problem can perhaps be pushed back another year or two knowing you’ll probably be back here again picking high in the draft. 

  1. Arizona Cardinals – Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
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Arizona has been my favourite trade partner since Minnesota made the trade for pick 23 and by proxy preparing to trade into the top four. Since reading Adam Schefter’s piece earlier in the week, I’ve been more inclined to think the Patriots will be that trade partner, so in this scenario, the Cardinals get Kyler Murray a true X-receiver, who has the most all-round polished game in this wide receiver class. 

  1. LA Chargers – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
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Malik Nabers is a dynamic playmaker who can make things happen after the catch. All signs point to the Chargers’ offence being run-heavy under Jim Harbaugh, Justin Herbert will need a dynamic yards-after-catch receiver that will operate well on play action, Nabers is that guy.  

  1. New York Giants – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington 
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Some people prefer Rome Odunze to Nabers due to his size and play style matching up better to that of a true NFL-calibre X-receiver. Odunze is a physical receiver who will be competitive at the catch-point, and the Giants are desperately calling out for receiver help. 

  1. Tennessee Titans – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
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Tennessee have a huge need at offensive tackle and Joe Alt possesses all the traits to be able to play as an NFL starter on day one in Nashville. Alt is the best tackle in the draft class and the Titans have a huge need at either end of their offensive line, it’s a match made in heaven. 

  1. New York Jets (Via ATL)  – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
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Trade: ATL receives – No. 10 + 5th round pick, NYJ receives – No. 8

The Falcons are the biggest early players for the first defensive player off the board, and the Jets seem desperate for an offensive playmaker. I like a tackle to the Jets as well looking long term but Brock Bowers is a special tight end talent and the Jets just give Aaron Rodgers another pass catcher. 

  1. Las Vegas Raiders (Via CHI) – J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan 
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Trade: CHI receives – No. 13 + 3rd round pick, LV receives No. 9

In previous mock drafts that I’ve done I didn’t have McCarthy dropping out of the top five, and if the Patriots go quarterback at third overall then I very much doubt he’ll get past five with the Vikings trading up, but in this scenario, he slides a long way and the Raiders snatch their guy with a little trade up. As for the Bears, with only four picks in the draft overall this has to be a trade-down spot. 

  1. Atlanta Falcons (via NYJ)- Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
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10 picks in and we finally see a defensive player go off the board in Alabama’s cornerback Terrion Arnold. Conversations about whether Quinyon Mitchell or Arnold is the best cornerback in this draft are fair but in this scenario, the Falcons go with the Alabama corner over the Toldeo one. 

  1. New England Patriots (via MIN) – J.C. Latham, OT, Alabama 
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Daniel Jeremiah had Latham as the first tackle off the board at fifth overall in his final mock draft, which says all you need to know about how highly people rate Latham in this class. The Patriots need a long-term answer at tackle and Latham can comfortably be that answer.

  1. New Orleans Saints (Via DEN) – Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
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Trade: DEN receives – No. 14 + fifth-round pick, NO receives No. 12

The Saints need a tackle with Ryan Ramcyzk suffering from a knee injury, late in his career and Trevor Penning not panning out how they’d have hoped. Olu Fashanu is a really talented tackle who is rough around the edges, with the right coaching he can be an NFL starter on the left side of this offensive line for years to come.

  1. Chicago Bears (via LV)- Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama
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Dallas Turner is the best defensive player in this class and the Bears would surely sprint this card to the podium if the board fell this way, especially after trading back. The Montez Sweat trade last season gave the Bears some presence in the front seven but Turner gives them a truly talented edge rusher who can disrupt opposing offences from day one.

  1. Philadelphia Eagles (Via DEN) – Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
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Trade: DEN receives No. 22, No. 53, PHI receives No. 14

The Eagles really need a cornerback and Howie Roseman has been rumoured to be looking to move up, while Denver needs early day two picks and their major need will be available later in the first round. Mitchell’s Senior Bowl put him on the map out of Toledo and he could bring some seriously dynamic youthfulness to this Eagles secondary. 

  1. Indianapolis Colts – Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
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Wiggins is, for me, the best cornerback after Arnold and Mitchell at “1a/1b”, and he fits a need for the Colts who look light at quality in their secondary. They may look at a receiver here or even a trade-back, but for me, the need is just too pressing to pass on.

  1. Seattle Seahawks – Troy Fautanu, OT/G, Washington 
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The Seahawks are another trade-down candidate for sure, but I have them keeping Troy Fautanu in state here. Fautanu is a great athlete and I can see them playing him as a guard this year to replace Damien Lewis who left in free agency.

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jared Verse, Edge, FSU
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Verse may not fall this far, but edge isn’t a priority need for many of the teams ahead of the Jaguars at 17. They may go cornerback in Duval County, and might even have to trade up to make that happen, but a good edge rusher would also be of great usage to the Jaguars across from Josh Allen who recently got paid.

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers (Via CIN) – Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
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Trade: CIN receives – No. 20 + sixth round pick, PIT receives No. 18

In previous mock drafts, I’ve done, I had Fuaga going at 10th overall to the Jets with an eye to their long-term need at the position and his incredible talent in the run game. It’s that talent in the run game that I think will get the attention of the Steelers’ front office and they trade ahead of the Rams and swap with the Bengals who both look like tackle-needy teams.  

  1. LA Rams – Byron Murphy, DT, Texas 
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Kobie Turner proved to be another mid-round steal from the Rams in last year’s draft and he needs help on the defensive line after Aaron Donald’s retirement. Byron Murphy can be a game-wrecker on the interior defensive line on passing and rushing downs. 

  1. Cincinatti Bengals (via PIT) – Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia 
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The Bengals will be annoyed that Bowers didn’t fall to a range they could trade up into and then as it is they settle for a trade down here. It could be a risk with the Rams needing a tackle at 19 but Mims has incredible potential that is worth taking that risk on. With only eight career starts in college Mims isn’t going to be a day-one starter but he will be a pick that comes with heaps of potential.

  1. Miami Dolphins – Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA 
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Latu has incredible talent he just falls because of his medical history which is a similar case to Jaelan Phillips a few years ago. In this mock, he ends up across the line from Phillips and the Dolphins will hope taking a gamble again can pay off like it has with Phillips.

  1. Denver Broncos (via PHI) – Bo Nix, QB, Oregon 
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This is the dream scenario for the Broncos, who trade back twice and accumulate a lot of day-two pickles to bolster a bad roster while also adding a quarterback who they’ve put a lot of time and study into. The Zach Wilson trade doesn’t change the thinking here, the Broncos have to take a quarterback and let Sean Payton build a team around him.

  1. New England Patriots (via MIN) – Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
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Brian Thomas is the best of the rest in this receiver class and his freak athleticism alongside his incredible touchdown production at LSU is hard to ignore. He could definitely go earlier than this, as high as the high-teens I’d have thought but the Patriots would love to add a true outside receiver to this roster, which currently lists slot-receiver KJ Osborn as wide receiver one. 

  1. Dallas Cowboys – Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
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Dallas have a lot of holes, particularly in the medium term and wide receiver may not be the biggest need assuming they will pay star receiver CeeDee Lamb, but Adonai Mitchell could pair with Lamb to make an excellent receiver duo.

  1. Green Bay Packers – Graham Barton, G, Duke 
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Graham Barton could go a lot higher than this, but the Packers won’t be complaining if they can take him here and play him at guard from day one. The Duke man can play anywhere across the offensive line and plays with immense grit, drive and power, I have no doubt he’d fit perfectly in Green Bay.

  1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon 
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The second top interior offensive line talent, Power-Johnson will go straight into the interior of the Buccaneers’ offensive line and bolster the pass protection for Baker Mayfield. 

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (Via AZ) – Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
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Trade: AZ receives – No. 32 + sixth round pick, KC receives No. 27

The Chiefs need receiver help, everyone knows it and with a class so deep at receiver, you’ll need to be brave and aggressive to get your guy, which the Chiefs do at this spot, moving up ahead of the Bills and 49ers to get a playmaker who could be a real nuisance with his route running in Kansas City.

  1. Buffalo Bills – Keon Coleman, WR, FSU 
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Josh Allen needs a big receiver to whom he can throw jump balls to and I have no doubt, Keon Coleman can come straight into this Buffalo offence and make a difference after the Stefon Diggs trade. 

  1. Detroit Lions – Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa 
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DeJean only slides because there are certain questions about where DeJean projects at the pro level, similar, to how Brian Branch fell last year. Coincidentally, it is the Lions who take DeJean as they did with Branch, but unlike Branch being a nickel/safety, I think DeJean can be a true cornerback on the outside.

  1. Baltimore Ravens – Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma 
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The Ravens really badly need a tackle and Tyler Guyton, is a more developmental tackle but the need is so big and there aren’t any elite talents here at other positions of need for that to put the Ravens off.

  1. San Fransisco 49ers – Jordan Morgan, OT/G, Arizona
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Jordan Morgan can slide straight into the interior of the 49ers’ offensive line, while he learns the trade of tackle behind a 38-year-old Trent Williams where he may be projected more, long-term. 

  1. Arizona Cardinals (via KC) – Johnny Newton, IDL, Illinois 
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This is the dream for Arizona, trading back from 27 and still getting a potential game-changer on the interior defensive line, in Johnny Newton from Illinois, who would have been the pick at 27. His size profile lets him down slightly but the play performance gets him in as a first-round pick from me.

Round 2 

  1. Washington Commanders (via CAR) – Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State (Trade: CAR receives – No. 33, WAS receives – No. 36)
  2. New England Patriots – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama 
  3. Arizona Cardinals – Darius Robinson, Edge, Missouri  
  4. Carolina Panthers (via WAS) – Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas 
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Trading back and still getting a true playmaker who can change the dynamic of your offence can’t ever be a bad thing, and it definitely isn’t if you’re the Panthers getting the 40-yard dash record holder in Xavier Worthy.

  1. LA Chargers – Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan 
  2. Tennessee Titans – Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU 
  3. Carolina Panthers – Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri
  4. Washington Commanders – Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, Washington 
  5. Green Bay Packers – Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M 
  6. Houston Texans – Braden Fiske, DL, FSU 
  7. New York Giants (Via ATL) – Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
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Trade: ATL receives – 47 + sixth-round pick, NYG receives – 43

Penix has first-round pick potential after his game vs Texas at the end of last season, but the injury history and breadth of accuracy errors on tape earlier in the season all factor into this fall. Seeing him fall this far though kicks the Giants into gear and they select him with the option of getting out of Daniel Jones’ contract next year if they want to take it. 

  1. Las Vegas Raiders – Malachi Corley, WR, Western Kentucky
  2. New Orleans Saints – Chris Braswell, Edge, Alabama 
  3. Indianapolis Colts – Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida 
  4. Atlanta Falcons (via NYG) – Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina  
  5. Jacksonville Jaguars – Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon 
  6. Cincinnati Bengals – Michael Hall Jr., DL, Ohio State 
  7. Philadelphia Eagles – Zach Frazier, IOL, West Virginia 
  8. Pittsburgh Steelers – Cooper Beede, IOL, Kansas State
  9. LA Rams – Marshawn Kneeland, Edge, Western Michigan 
  10. Denver Broncos (via PHI) – Junior Colson, LB, Michigan 
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Colson has great talent and is my favourite interior linebacker in this class, he plays with aggression and a lot of athleticism, and the Broncos have a serious need at Mike linebacker, so they use their second-round pick they get from Philadelphia in the trade-up to 14 in the first round to fix that need.

  1. Cleveland Browns – Kris Jenkins, DL, Michigan 
  2. Miami Dolphins – Christian Haynes, G, UConn 
  3. Dallas Cowboys – Jonathon Brooks, RB, Texas
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – T.J. Tampa, CB, Iowa State 
  5. Green Bay Packers – Tyler Nubin, S, Minnesota 
  6. Kansas City Chiefs (Via HOU) – Blake Corum, RB, Michigan (HOU receives No. 64 + seventh-round pick, KC receives No.59)
  7. Buffalo Bills – Andru Phillips, CB, Kentucky 
  8. Detroit Lions – Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan 
  9. Baltimore Ravens – Javon Bullard, S, Georgia 
  10. San Fransisco 49ers – Ruke Orhorhoro, DL, Clemson 
  11. Houston Texans (via KC) – Trey Benson, RB, FSU
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A tribute to… the lateral pass

The lateral pass may sit in the shadow of the far-more-common forward pass in American football but it still plays a crucial role in the strategy and tactics of the game. In this third article in our series about some of the rare-yet-intriguing aspects of gridiron, we examine what defines a lateral pass, look at some of the plays that involve lateral passes and shine a light on some of the most memorable examples – both successful and not – through the years.

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What is a lateral?

While the forward pass was invented specifically for the American game of football, the lateral or backward pass was borrowed from the two codes of rugby, where such passes are the norm (and, of course, where forward passes aren’t allowed). A lateral occurs when a player throws the ball sideways or backwards to a teammate and while only one forward pass may be thrown per down by the offense, there are no such restrictions on lateral passes. Any player carrying the ball may throw a lateral pass from any position on the field at any time. Similarly, any player may receive such a pass and any number of laterals may be thrown on a single play. Additionally, a player receiving a lateral pass behind the line of scrimmage may still throw a forward pass, as long as none has already been thrown during the play.

If there’s a change of possession, the defense can only throw laterals once they get the ball. And unlike a forward pass, a dropped lateral results in a live ball that may be picked up and advanced by either team. Backward passes can also be intercepted, opening up a whole new level of jeopardy. And therein lies the beauty and the fascination of the lateral. It’s a green light for the innovative coach to get scheming and the switched-on player to do something instinctive and unexpected. Furthermore, sometimes – usually when it’s the last play of the game and the attacking teams needs to score by any means – it can be a recipe for unadulterated, multi-pass madness, as we’ll see later.

MOST PLAYS FEATURE A LATERAL: Within the rules of the game, the snap at the line of scrimmage is officially classed as a backward pass.

Categories of lateral pass

The most common lateral pass involves the quarterback quickly ‘pitching’ the ball a short distance to a nearby running back on a rushing play. All pretty standard stuff. And like in rugby, a sideways pass to an adjacent runner in open play isn’t unheard of. Laterals are also used in trick plays – and this is where things get more exotic and interesting. Let’s have a closer look at a couple where a backwards pass is a fundamental element. 

The flea flicker

Who doesn’t love a ‘flea flicker’? The quarterback hands the ball to a running back, who rushes forwards but stops at or before the line of scrimmage and laterals the ball back to the QB, who then throws a forward pass. This trick play draws the defense into defending the run, leaving the quarterback free from an immediate pass rush. The back-and-forth between RB and QB also gives time for the intended receiver to get downfield, opening up an opportunity for a long completion.

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There are many, many examples of flea flickers over the years so we won’t dwell on them too much. But one particular combo – Kurt Warner to Larry Fitzgerald – connected on some notable flea flickers for the Arizona Cardinals, not least in the 2009 playoffs. During the NFC Wild Card game against the Atlanta Falcons, the Cards were struggling to run the ball in the first quarter. Running back Edgerrin James took a handoff, progressed two yards before turning and pitching the ball back to Warner. With the pocket collapsing in on the expected runner, the Falcons secondary couldn’t see the pitch take place, allowing Warner to uncork a 42-yard pass to Fitzgerald in the end zone. The TD set Arizona on their way to winning their first home playoff game in 61 years.

A week later, facing the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game, Warner and Fitzgerald did it again. This time, the pitch back to Warner came from JJ Arrington, who ran off to the right before throwing the ball back across to his QB. The ensuing TD pass to Fitzgerald went for 62 yards, sealing a 32-25 win that punched Arizona’s ticket to Super Bowl XLIII.

The hook and lateral

I’m also rather partial to another variant: the ‘hook and lateral’ (sometimes called a ‘hook and ladder’). Here, a receiver (quite often a tight end) runs a hook route, turns and collects a forward pass before tossing the ball backward to a second receiver running in behind, while the initial ball-catcher is closed down or tackled. Looking very much like a rugby move, the Kansas City Chiefs are rather adept at this one, often using Travis Kelce to take the pass before laying it off to a teammate – like this one to Noah Gray against the Broncos that secured a first down or one to LeSean McCoy against the Lions that turned a 12-yard pass into a 35-yard gain. (Maybe this is why they have signed former Welsh rugby star Louis Rees-Zammit through the International Player Pathway?)

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The Miami Dolphins also executed a classic hook and lateral that made the top 50 of the best NFL plays ever. Seconds before the break in their AFC playoff game against the San Diego Chargers in January 1982, wide receiver Duriel Harris caught a 20-yard pass from quarterback Don Strock. He immediately flung it, scrum-half style, into the path of running back Tony Nathan, who flew past him and in for the score.

THEY’RE NOTHING NEW: The first documented instance of a lateral occurred in the NFL’s inaugural season in 1920, by the Rock Island Independents against the Muncie Flyers.

Miracles do happen

Ask any Titans fan to name the best lateral play in NFL history and they’ll probably tell you it’s the ‘Music City Miracle’, which happened at the end of Tennessee’s AFC Wild Card game against the Buffalo Bills in Nashville in January 2000. Having scored a go-ahead field goal to lead 16-15 with just 16 seconds left on the clock, Buffalo kicked off, expecting to defend their slim lead for a couple of plays and secure the victory. But Alan Lowry, the Titans’ Special Teams Coordinator, had other ideas.

Tennessee’s Lorenzo Neal caught the short, high kick at the 25 and immediately handed the ball off to tight end Frank Wycheck. Wycheck stepped to his right and having drawn the Bills players over to his side, threw the ball horizontally across the field to wide receiver Kevin Dyson. He sprinted down the left sideline for a game-winning touchdown, with only kicker Steve Christie even in the same zip code.

“Do the Titans have a miracle left in them in what has been a magical season to this point? If they do, they need it now. Christie kicks it high and short. Gonna be fielded by Lorenzo Neal at the 25. Pitches it back to Wycheck… he throws it across the field to Dyson… 30, 40, 50, 40… 20, 10, 5 – end zone! Touchdown Titans! There are no flags on the field! It’s a miracle! Tennessee has pulled a miracle! A miracle for the Titans!”
Mike Keith, Titans Radio Network broadcast

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Immediately after the play, there was controversy over whether Wycheck’s throw was an illegal forward pass (remember, they were the defense on this play). While Dyson was undoubtedly standing further forward than the passer, he crouched down and reached back to make the catch. Upon review, the touchdown stood and the Titans marched on to Super Bowl XXXIV.

Amazingly, the two players who had practised the play before the game – kick returner Derrick Mason (concussion) and safety Anthony Dorsett (cramp) – were unable to take the field at the time so Dyson had to step in, getting told what to do on the sideline before the play. The plan was also for him to step out of bounds if he got within field goal range but having the whole field open up, Dyson couldn’t help but go all the way.

When blind hope is all you have

In October 2003, the Minnesota Vikings were tied 7-7 with the Denver Broncos with 12 seconds left before halftime. Facing a 3rd-and-24 in their own territory, the Vikings’ QB Daunte Culpepper rolled right and heaved a Hail Mary to Randy Moss. Alas, the pass fell a bit short and he had to come back to make the catch at the Denver 10. Surrounded by several Broncos, Moss was immediately tackled but as he was going down, he threw the ball blindly over his head to running back Moe Williams, who scampered untouched into the end zone. As the commentators said at the time, the improvisation was worthy of an Academy Award.

The Vikings won 28-20 and the move was also named in the NFL’s top 100 plays. After the game, Moss – who posted 1,632 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns that season – implied he knew what he was doing when he said “Out of my peripheral vision, I saw a purple jersey. Well, purple is purple. That means he’s a teammate of mine. So out of instinct, I just tossed it over my shoulder…”

Multi-lateral mayhem

As we’ve seen, single laterals can be highly effective in the right situation. But there’s been many an instance where two or more lateral passes have been used to orchestrate game-defining plays.

One such example, the ‘River City Relay’, took place in a Week 16 game between the New Orleans Saints and the Jacksonville Jaguars in December 2003. With the Saints trailing by a touchdown and time running out, quarterback Aaron Brooks – at his own 25 on a 2nd-and-10 – completed a pass to Donte’ Stallworth out near the right sideline. The wide receiver cut in and headed back across the field before lateralling the ball to fellow wideout Michael Lewis on the left side. Lewis ran with it, then turned to hand it to Deuce McAllister. The RB ran into a cul-de-sac so swivelled and hurled the ball back across the field to unmarked running back Jerome Pathon, who raced into the end zone back over in the right corner. The fact that he made it into the paint was in no small part due to a timely block on the last defender by his QB Brooks, who’d tracked the play down the field. Unfortunately, that amazing effort – including three lateral passes – was in vain as Saints kicker John Carney missed the PAT attempt, resulting in a heartbreaking 20-19 loss.

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The Miami Dolphins also used two laterals to score a legendary touchdown that defeated the New England Patriots 34-33 on the last play of a game at Hard Rock Stadium in December 2018. Down by five points and with only seven seconds remaining, Ryan Tannehill completed a pass from his own 31-yard line to wide receiver Kenny Stills. He threw a short lateral to DeVante Parker in midfield, who in turn passed it along the line to running back Kenyan Drake. Drake then snaked his way through the Pats D (which included a flailing Rob Gronkowski, on the field to help defend a possible Hail Mary) to the end zone. The 69-yard TD, since dubbed the ‘Miracle in Miami’, was the first walk-off touchdown winner to involve multiple lateral passes in NFL history and the first multi-lateral TD play since the ‘River City Relay’ 15 years earlier.

Close but no cigar

An honourable mention goes to Antonio Brown who looked like he’d put the seal on a multi-lateral TD play for the Pittsburgh Steelers against the Dolphins on a snowy field in Week 14, 2013. Trailing 34-28 as the clock ran out, Pittsburgh gave it one last effort. Ben Roethlisberger threw a pass out wide to Emmanuel Sanders, from whence it came back across the field to the quarterback in a series of backward diagonal passes. Big Ben stepped forward and then, as he was tackled, flipped a windmill of an underarm pass out to the left where Brown was waiting. The mercurial wide receiver found the room to race down the sideline and in for the TD, leaving the Miami secondary struggling to keep their feet on the snow-covered turf. Alas for the Steelers, the replays showed that Brown stepped out of bounds about 13 yards from paydirt… but it was a fine effort nonetheless and almost one of the best multi-pass TDs ever. 

THIS PLAY IS LATERALLY INSANE: Although it’s not from the NFL, we have to mention the University of Miami’s amazing eight-lateral game-winning play against Duke in 2015. This 45 seconds of craziness is exactly why we love the lateral.

Col-lateral damage

The lure of glory can be intoxicating but beware, fellow fans of the lateral. It can also go oh-so-wrong, as this cautionary tale illustrates.

In 2022, a week before Christmas, the Patriots were facing the Las Vegas Raiders. With three seconds left and the score tied at 24-24, QB Mac Jones could’ve taken a knee and overtime would have followed. Alternatively, they could have tried to win by hurling a Hail Mary into the Raiders’ end zone. Instead, what ensued was the worst of both worlds. Taking a handoff, Rhamondre Stevenson made 23 yards on a weaving run. But with Raiders safety Duron Harmon closing in, instead of being tackled and accepting the inevitability of overtime (hardly the most terrible of outcomes), he had a rush of blood to the head, raised his arm and pitched it back over a defender to Jakobi Meyers. His teammate also got over-excited and despite running in the wrong direction for eight yards, seemed determined to keep the play alive, so threw a second lateral back across the field towards Jones. Alas for the Patriots, Las Vegas’ own Jones – Chandler Jones – had been watching this madness unfold and stepped in front of his namesake, expecting the QB to be the next likely recipient of the ‘hot potato’. The defensive end inevitably intercepted the ball, stiff-armed Mac Jones to the floor and ran it in for the winning score.

Because the Patriots attempted this play when the game was tied and OT was safely in the bag, the play is widely considered to be one of the biggest howlers in league history. ESPN’s Stephen E Smith called it “the dumbest play ever” while NFL Network’s Rich Eisen christened it “the Hail Moron” before going on to describe it as “the most situationally boneheaded play… maybe ever”.

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When magic meets madness

So that, folks, is the lateral. It may be the poor cousin of the forward pass as far as frequency goes but given how often laterals have featured in the NFL’s most iconic plays throughout history, their impact on the game is undeniable. When used strategically in isolation, lateral passes can unlock a defense and they remain a potent weapon for coaches and players looking to outwit and outmanoeuvre their opponents. But when teams run out of time and have no other option than to wing it, attempting multiple laterals to keep the final play alive, that’s when magic and madness collide.

Long live the lateral!

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Cuts, restructures and trades: how Sean Payton is finally rebuilding the Denver Broncos 10 years on

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Sean Payton’s first year in Denver saw Broncos Country endure a true rollercoaster of a season, from a 1-5 start to 7-6 and then back down to a seventh losing season in a row.

Now we’ve entered the offseason, the multiple superstars have moved on and the Broncos are staring down the largest dead cap hit in the history of the NFL. 

To outsiders, it may seem like the Broncos are in free fall and fully embracing a ‘tanking’ season, but in the Mile High city Broncos Country is getting the rebuild they’ve been so desperately longing for since Peyton Manning left in 2016. 

Figures correct as of Thursday, March 15.

The outs

Almost two years on from dropping their major trade acquisition of Russell Wilson, the Broncos announced that they were cutting Russell Wilson. 

Wilson was designated as a post-June 1st cut spreading his cap hit across 2024 and 2025 slightly nulifying the blow of the largest dead cap hit in NFL history. 

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During his time in Denver, Wilson threw for 42 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions, and finished with an 11-19 record playing under Nathaniel Hackett and Sean Payton as well as two games under interim-head coach Jerry Rosburg. 

Before even playing a snap in orange, Wilson was handed a five-year 4245 million contract extension on top of the remaining two years he had remaining on his existing Seattle Seahawks contract. 

Now, anyone who can put two and two together will have noticed that the trade happened two years prior to the cutting of Wilson, meaning the 35-year-old failed to play any downs on the blockbuster extension he signed with the organisation. 

Payton has steadied the ship in Colorado after a disastrous season in 2022 but cutting Wilson officially called an end to one of the most disastrous eras in Broncos history, leaving a mere $85 million dead cap hit in its wake.

The dead cap hit more than doubles the previous record and has led to the Broncos having to make numerous other readjustments to gather some meaningful cap room for the 2024 season. 

The biggest casualty of this was superstar safety Justin Simmons who was cut after eight years with the Broncos, who selected the two-time Pro Bowler with the 98th pick of the 2016 draft.

Simmons was the true definition of a ball-hawk safety and a key addition to the Broncos’ roster, however, due to the league’s reluctance to pay safeties and the cap hole the Broncos found themselves in, Simmons was an obvious trade or cut candidate. 

Veteran tight end Chris Manhertz was also cut while fellow pass catcher and former 2020 first-round pick Jerry Jeudy was traded to the Cleveland Browns for two later-round picks.

Jeudy never truly fulfilled his potential in Denver and will get another chance to prove why he was a first-round selection in Cleveland next year, as for the Broncos they were able to free up more cap space and gather some much-needed draft capital in the process.

Away from cutting and trading players two star performers of the Broncos hit the open market in interior offensive lineman Lloyd Cushenberry III and interior linebacker Josey Jewell. 

Cushenberry earned himself a big-money move to the Tennessee Titans while Jewell currently remains a free agent in a position that is, like safety and running back, deemed as less valuable in the modern game. 

The 2024 linebacker draft class is quite weak which will play into Jewell’s favour, while for the Broncos they will have to decide whether they give second-year player Drew Sanders the keys or whether they look to free agency or a potential gem in this 2024 class, to play alongside Alex Singleton. 

General Manager, George Paton suggested that Sanders may eventually move outside so perhaps an inside linebacker will be in play for the Broncos with some of their mid-round picks. 

Restructures and more cuts?

In the week leading up to free agency, the Broncos restructured the contracts of their three big free-agent acquisitions from a year ago. 

They began by reworking a one-year deal with Tim Patrick, then freeing up $11 million by restructuring Mike McGlinchey’s contract before restructuring both Ben Powers’ and Zach Allen’s deals to allow for an extra $20 million to become available. 

After almost a week of free agency the Broncos’ current cap number sits at around $26 million under the cap and that may grow with some more likely cuts. 

NFL insider Benjamin Allbright hinted at the potential of at least three more cuts that could happen soon from the Broncos roster. 

The most likely candidate for the Broncos to part ways with is defensive tackle, DJ Jones who would free up nearly $10 million in cap space while Garrett Bolles and Samaje Perine may also be restructure or cut candidates. 

Bolles was part of Denver’s amazing run-blocking unit last year and if Payton wants to build his team in his mould it would be strange to see Bolles cut, but his $20 million against the cap does pose as a big figure.

Some flirted with the possibility of Courtland Sutton being a trade candidate but those rumours seem to have been squashed, which is great news for the Broncos after his monster year in 2023.

Free agents  

In the first week of free agency, the Broncos acquired Brandon Jones on a three-year, $20 million contract and defensive lineman Malcolm Roach on a two-year, $8 million contract. 

They also resigned, fullback Michael Burton for one year, safety P.J. Locke on a two-year, $7 million contract, and former New Orleans Saints duo, kicker Will Lutz and wide receiver Lil’Jordan Humphrey, who both spent the 2023 season in Denver.

With the Broncos sitting at around $26 million in cap space and the free agent market dwindling, they perhaps won’t be going out and making any major deals. 

Perhaps some extra defensive line and linebacker help will come through the door later in free agency on some veteran minimum or cheap ‘prove it’ deals but unless more cuts come it seems unlikely the Broncos will play a much bigger role in the rest of this year’s free agency. 

Draft prospects

Coming later in the draft cycle we will bring you more mock drafts, a full seven-round Broncos mock draft and more draft spotlights. 

As we remain a month and a half out of the draft in Detroit this Spring it’s difficult to properly project any prospects and with a team in need of capital but also in need of a top quarterback prospect, the Broncos are a tough team to place in the draft pecking order. 

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They could go down the route of trading up for JJ McCarthy or Jayden Daniels if one starts to fall, but they likely don’t have the assets to properly facilitate that trade. 

So most likely, it’ll be a trade back to accumulate more capital before moving for one of the mid-range, second-tier quarterbacks, Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. to learn under veteran Jarrett Stidham in 2024. 

Elsewhere, the draft class is deep at receiver and with Sutton, Patrick, Humphrey, Brandon Johnson and Marvin Mims as the only receivers on the roster it is likely the Broncos will look to add one of the receivers out of the 2024 class.

The class is also deep at edge rusher, something the Broncos can always use more of, and it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility for Paton to select someone like Jared Verse or Laiatu Latu at 12th overall if they liked them enough. 

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With the linebacker class looking quite weak in 2024 in both the draft and free agency, it’ll be interesting to see how the Broncos fill that void. 

What do the next two years look like for the Broncos? 

2024 will be a year for rebuilding for the Broncos and Sean Payton, looking to add some franchise cornerstones through the draft before looking to 2025 with more cap room and bringing more quality into the team. 

The QB question heading into the 2024 draft is intriguing and with the prospects of a trade-up looking less likely, it’ll be interesting to see how the Broncos play the board with the top of the second tier of QBs. 

With the 2025 class of QBs looking weak, it would be surprising to see the Broncos pass on a signal-caller in this draft cycle. 

It would be expected to then see the front office use their extra cap room to surround him with talent when he takes a starting spot in 2025.

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A tribute to… the Hail Mary

While the rules of American football do not explicitly mention the Hail Mary pass, it remains a thrilling aspect of the game. There’s little else that evokes the same anticipation, or suggests the same desperation, as these all-or-nothing, everything-on-the-line moments. In this first in an occasional series of off-season articles about some of the game’s much-loved but rarer plays, Sean Tyler explores the history of the Hail Mary in the NFL, outlines the tactics and techniques behind it, and revisits some of the greatest Hail Marys from years gone by.

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How it all began

Because it’s not part of the game’s official lexicon, the term wasn’t coined by a coach, owner or even a commentator. In footballing terms, the expression dates back to October 1922, when players from Notre Dame (a Catholic university) twice said a prayer in the huddle before plays against Georgia Tech – and scored touchdowns in both instances.

As for the NFL, the first recorded reference came several decades later from Roger Staubach, the Dallas Cowboys quarterback. In a divisional playoff game against the Minnesota Vikings in December 1975, with just 32 seconds on the clock and Dallas trailing by four, legendary Head Coach Tom Landry called for a long pass and Staubach launched one from the halfway line. The slightly underthrown ball was tipped by receiver Drew Pearson five yards shy of the paint but he somehow trapped it between his arm and hip before taking it in for the winning score. Afterwards, Landry said “Our only hope was to throw it and hope for a miracle,” while Staubach – a devout Catholic – told reporters, “I just closed my eyes and said a Hail Mary.” The term appeared in several newspaper headlines the following day and has been part of NFL folklore ever since.

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Mindset and mechanics

The prayer in question (“Hail Mary, full of grace, the Lord is with thee…”) eludes to summoning help from the powers that be to successfully make a long, low-probability, chuck-it-and-hope throw. Usually attempted when a team is too far from the end zone to try something more conventional, the term implies that it would take a miracle for the play to succeed – which is why we love it when it does. That success relies on several factors coming together in the perfect storm: the strength and technique of the quarterback, whether there’s enough time for the receiver(s) to get downfield, whether the opposing team can defend it and, in most cases, a massive slice of good fortune.

So how do you shift the odds in your favour? Well, according to Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, you practice. During his three years as an understudy to Brett Favre, he performed countless reps. “I got used to what it felt like, height and distance wise,” he told ESPN in a great article in 2019. “I’ve always been a little nerdy about that – watching the ball, seeing where it would land, remembering what that throw felt like. Was it all out? Was it 90 percent? Was it 80 percent? And just kind of locking those things away.”

As for Vikings QB Kirk Cousins, who has both a college and an NFL Hail Mary to his name, time is also crucial. “Can you find time in the pocket or can you escape the pocket and step up? By the time you run around a little bit, the receiver is in the end zone where you want them. It helps if you can buy as much time as possible, let the receivers get underneath the ball as it comes down.” And the numbers bear that out. According to ESPN tracking, the average time before a Hail Mary is thrown is 4.75 seconds – almost twice as long as a normal play.

So what about trajectory? The throw must go high and far enough to reach the end zone but not go out of the back – that’s quite a tight window if you’re 50 yards or more away. Quarterbacks tend to pull their arms farther back than normal and Cousins tilts his shoulders, with the front shoulder up and back shoulder down. “That will put the arc on it,” he confirms. “You want the ball coming down at the receivers. You don’t want a driven ball.”

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A RARE TREAT: Due to the degree of difficulty, most attempts aren’t completed. In fact, there have only been 34 successful Hail Marys in the professional game since Staubach’s effort nearly 50 years ago.

All hail King Rodgers

While the Hail Mary is often seen as a last-ditch effort, some players have developed a reputation for launching long, accurate passes in clutch moments. Since Staubach, there have been several successful proponents of the Hail Mary. And where better to start than with the best of the best, Aaron Rodgers, who (thanks to all that practice) is the only quarterback with three successful NFL Hail Marys to his name.

One of the most famous of all time, christened the ‘Miracle in Motown’ by broadcaster Jim Nantz, came on the final play of a Thursday night game in December 2015 against the Packers’ NFC North rivals, the Detroit Lions. Because of a face mask penalty on the previous play, Green Bay – who’d been trailing most of the game – were given an extra play with no time on the clock. After the snap, Rodgers broke left to buy time while his receivers rushed downfield. Then he scrambled to the right to evade pressure and hurled a howitzer from his own 35-yard line. It dropped inside the end zone, where it was caught by the 6’4” Richard Rodgers II in front of a gaggle of Detroit players. (The tight end also caught a 67-yarder from Carson Wentz as a Philadelphia Eagle in 2020.)

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The Rodgers-to-Rodgers connection, which brought a dramatic 27-23 victory, is still the longest Hail Mary touchdown in NFL history. According to estimations at the time, the ball travelled 69 yards and almost hit the rafters at Ford Field. Breaking it down afterwards, then-HC Mike McCarthy said: “When you throw it with that arc, it gives guys a chance to fight for position. And Richard is the perfect guy for that type of situation, with his ability to go up and high-point the football.”

Having won the NFL Play of the Year Award for the 2015 season for that one, Rodgers threw another just weeks later. This time, Green Bay were facing the Arizona Cardinals in the 2015 NFC Divisional Playoff game. Down by seven and with seconds remaining, Rodgers heaved another desperation pass into the end zone while Marcus Golden and others rushed to close him down. This time, the ball was caught by receiver Jeff Janis and the 41-yard reception sent the game into overtime (although the Cardinals ultimately prevailed).

Rodgers, the unofficial yet undisputed ‘King of the Hail Mary’, then uncorked a third the following year – again in the postseason. In the NFC Wild Card Game against the New York Giants, he let it fly from the 53-yard-line with the last play of the first half and Randall Cobb took the catch at the back of the end zone. Rodgers’ three career Hail Marys, which came during a span of just 13 months, travelled a combined 172 yards.

Talking on Pat McAfee’s show years later, Rodgers raised another interesting factor: the inability of defensive players to read the flight of the ball. “I think it just comes down to the way you throw it,” he said. “If you take out the Jeff Janis one, the other two I was trying to get to a clean spot and throw it as high as possible. On both of those, I think there was a misjudgement by a majority of the players as to where the ball was going to come down.”

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A LONG SHOT… IN EVERY SENSE OF THE WORD: According to ESPN Stats and Information, only 9.7% of the 193 attempts from 2009 to 2019 were completed.

Double trouble: Dalton and Couch

Looking back through the annals of NFL history, there have been several other notable exponents of the Hail Mary. In particular, a couple of QBs from the AFC North have managed the feat twice (as has Russell Wilson, and we’ll come to him shortly).

In a 2013 battle with the Cincinnati Bengals, the Baltimore Ravens were leading 17-10 when, on the last play, Cincy’s Andy Dalton launched a 51-yard lob to the end zone on a 4th-and-15. The ball was deflected twice, once by each team, and while everyone else fell to the deck, the ball fell to AJ Green for a touchdown that forced overtime. The same pair teamed up three years later against the Browns, when the Red Rifle found Green with a 52-yard moonshot with seconds left in the first half. Again, there was some juggling and bobbling before Green pulled it into his chest for a 31-17 Bengals win.

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Staying in the division, in October 1999, the Cleveland Browns secured their first win as a returning expansion team with a Hail Mary against the New Orleans Saints. Quarterback Tim Couch avoided the pass rush and launched a 56-yard bomb that was tipped, then caught, by receiver Kevin Johnson. Three years later, Couch repeated the feat against the Jacksonville Jaguars, when his 50-yarder to a tightly covered Quincy Morgan (and the ensuing extra point) secured a 21-20 win. Couch remains the only player to win two NFL games on game-ending Hail Marys.

Before we move on from the Browns, we ought to mention another so-called ‘miracle’: The Miracle at the Met. This refers to Cleveland’s epic game at the Vikings’ old Metropolitan Stadium in December 1980, in which Minnesota came back from a 23-9 deficit to snatch victory in the last five minutes. The Vikes closed to within a point and, after forcing the Browns to punt, were left with 14 seconds, with the ball at their own 20. A crafty lateral pass (more of them another time) set up a 39-yard gain, leaving 41 yards still to go and just five seconds on the clock. NBC broadcaster Len Dawson predicted, “They’re gonna throw that ball up in the air and hope for a miracle” … and he wasn’t wrong. Three receivers lined up on the right and all ran go routes to the end zone, while Tommy Kramer (456 yards, 4 TDs) dropped back and heaved the ball into the crowd scene. A Browns defender tipped the ball but Ahmad Rashad caught it, with one hand, on the 1-yard line and took it in backwards for the score that sealed the NFC Central division title for Minnesota.

When Hail Marys become Fail Marys…

The original ‘Fail Mary’, as it became known, is a misnomer; it was actually a successful play. It occurred in 2012, during a contractual dispute with referees and umpires, when a replacement crew dominated the headlines in the Packers’ Monday night clash with the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson threw a last-second attempt on a 4th-and-10 to Golden Tate, who was surrounded by three defenders in the end zone. Tate pushed one of them away without drawing a flag (hold that thought) but both he and MD Jennings gripped the ball with both hands as they fell to the ground. One referee signalled for a touchdown while another called it an INT. A replay confirmed the score, which resulted in a controversial 14-12 Seattle victory.

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That play is one of several that confirm the benefits of defensive players knocking the ball away – preferably down – rather that trying to intercept it but even that can go wrong. On the final play of a 2010 game in Jacksonville, Texans safety Glover Quin tried to knock down a David Garrard pass intended for Mike Sims-Walker with a double-handed, volleyball-style swat. Alas, it went straight into the hands of Jags receiver Mike Thomas, who brought the ball under control and stepped into the end zone for the winning score.

The Tate TD also highlights the fact that players on both sides are essentially immune from pass-interference flags on a Hail Mary, largely because the NFL doesn’t want a game to be decided on a penalty. Most attempts turn into rugby scrums and no one seems to bat an eyelid. The other dilemma facing defensive coaches is whether to take your chances at the line of scrimmage and send in the pass rush or pull more bodies back to defend the ball down the field. That’s a case of pick your own poison and there’s no right answer.

HOT AND COLD STREAKS: There have been three seasons (2012, 2015 and 2016) with three successful Hail Marys each, while only one was completed between 2003 and 2009.

… and Oh Hell Marys

Because it’s such a high-risk, high-reward play, a Hail Mary can go spectacularly awry and I don’t mean the ‘it didn’t quite work’ kind of wrong; I mean ‘handing the other team seven points’ wrong. Indeed, that happened just three months ago, in Week 12 of the 2023 season, in what might be one of the most ‘Jets’ plays ever.

Trailing 10-6 with the first half all but over, New York Jets QB Tim Boyle unleashed a ball 57 yards through the air. Alas, it went straight to Miami Dolphins safety Jevon Holland on the 1-yard line, and he ran it back for the first Hail Mary returned for a touchdown since ESPN began tracking them in 2006. Starting from the back-left of the field, he ended up at the opposite corner, having run for 124 yards. Picking up critical blocks from Christian Wilkins, Bradley Chubb and Jerome Baker along the way, he left the Jets players sprawling in his wake as he completed his incredible 99-yard pick six.

Despite going on to lose 34-13, Jets running back Breece Hall had no beef with the decision to try a Hail Mary. “It makes perfect sense to me,” he said. “You get the ball at the 50, you throw it at the end zone. When you stop thinking like that, that’s when you’re passive, and I don’t want to be a part of a passive offense. I’m happy we went for it.”

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THE LATEST (SUCCESSFUL) HAIL MARY: In Week 2 of the 2023 season, the Washington Commanders fought back from 21-3 down to lead the Denver Broncos 35–27. With three seconds remaining, Russell Wilson heaved a pass from midfield that was deflected twice before Brandon Johnson caught the TD, giving the QB his second career Hail Mary completion. Alas, Denver failed to convert the ensuing two-point conversion so it was all in vain.

A personal favourite: the Hail Murray

With 35 Hail Marys in the NFL record books, it’s impossible to summarise them all here. But before we finish, let’s revisit one more corker that wasn’t scripted. It was a play that unravelled and the quarterback in question just had to wing it.

The so-called ‘Hail Murray’ occurred when the Cardinals hosted the Buffalo Bills in November 2020. Down 30-26 with 11 seconds remaining and with no timeouts left, the intended target Andy Isabella – running a crossing route – couldn’t get open on a 1st-and-10. The diminutive Kyler Murray evaded a would-be sack from Mario Addison but with two Bills lineman barrelling towards him, it was clear that the play was breaking down, there was nowhere for him to scramble to and time was ebbing away. He was left with no other choice but to hurl it 43 yards downfield and hope for the best. Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, the only Arizona player to reach the end zone, somehow climbed the ladder and caught the ball, his hands rising through those of Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White and Micah Hyde to seal a stunning 32-30 comeback victory.

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Here’s just a taste of how that amazing moment, which won the NFL Play of the Year Award, was described by the radio announcers who cover the Cardinals on KVMP FM. (The fact that it’s nearly all in capitals tells you everything…)

Dave Pasch: “Murray back to throw, flushed out, rolling left in trouble, slips a tackle, gotta launch it, he does, left side, into the end zone, jump ball, and it is… is it caught?! Is it caught?! OH MY GOODNESS, IT’S CAUGHT! DEANDRE HOPKINS CAUGHT IT! HE CAUGHT IT FOR A TOUCHDOWN! WITH ONE SECOND LEFT! I CAN’T BELIEVE IT! YOU’VE GOTTA BE JOKING ME! HOPKINS… REACHES UP WITH THREE DEFENDERS AROUND HIM AND PULLS IT IN! THE CARDINALS LEAD 32-30 WITH A SECOND LEFT!”

Ron Wolfley: “YOU! CAN’T! COVER! ‘NUK! YOU’RE NOT GONNA BE ABLE TO COVER HIM! THROW THE BALL UP! THAT’S WHAT KYLER MURRAY DID! HE EXTENDED THE PLAY WITH HIS LEGS! AND JUST CHUCKED THAT THING UP INTO THE AIR! INTO THE DESERT SKY, BABY! AND D-HOP BROUGHT IT DOWN! TOUCHDOWN!”

Wow. Goosebumps.

Long live the long throw

Since Staubach’s post-game comment half a century ago, the Hail Mary has (somewhat fittingly) come a long way. It is now less of a desperate call for divine intervention and more often a deliberate, strategic play that a cannon-armed quarterback can pull out of the bag when needed. It embodies everything we love about football: skill and strength for sure, but also unpredictability, hope and a little bit of luck.

So, please join me in raising a glass to the Hail Mary: a rare beast, but far from endangered. Rather, it has become an integral part of the NFL’s rich tapestry and, as these examples hopefully illustrate, brought us some of the most dramatic and celebrated moments in league history. That’s why I’m certain that, as long as there are a few seconds on the clock, half a field still to gain and a result hanging in the balance, the Hail Mary will continue to captivate NFL fans.

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Takeaways as the Broncos season ends in disappointing fashion

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After a long and tumultuous 18 weeks, the Denver Broncos season has come to an end with a loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, wilting 27-14 to their division rivals and falling to third in the AFC West. 

The Broncos started the season 1-5 and inevitably dug themselves too big of a hole to climb out of. Despite their five-game winning streak in the middle of the season, they were always on the outside looking in and fell away again at the end of the year going 2-4 to close out the season, missing the playoffs again.

The losing streak to the Raiders continues 

Perhaps, the most disappointing part of Sunday’s loss is the continuation of the Broncos’ losing streak against their bitter AFC West rivals. 

Sean Payton’s team could have bucked two huge losing trends this season had they won on Sunday, having already put an end to their 16-game losing streak against the Kansas City Chiefs earlier in the season. 

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It wasn’t to be however and they got thoroughly outplayed by the Raiders who looked better and more hungry in every facet of the game, from coaching to quarterback play and everything in between. 

To put the icing on the cake, the loss meant that the Broncos have now had a losing record for seven straight seasons ending Payton’s first campaign 8-9. 

The rebuild starts now 

Now the season is over, the conversations will turn to offseason movement in free agency and the NFL Draft which will take place in late April. 

As discussed last week, the Broncos have several big pending free agents who they likely won’t be able to retain if they also take the route of cutting Russell Wilson and eating his hefty dead cap hit. 

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As a result, Denver will likely be constructing a roster of cheap veteran and rookie players next year, unless they can convince some of their stars that remain on the roster to reconstruct their contracts and give the Broncos some breathing room on their cap.

An 8-9 record partnered with a Superbowl-winning head coach, is a great base to rebuild on and defensively Vance Joseph found a formula that clicked in the middle part of the season.

Nonetheless, there are still plenty of holes on the roster that need filling on both sides of the ball, coaching can provide the players with a strong floor, the Los Angeles Rams showed that this season, and perhaps the Broncos will still be able to take positive steps next season.

January blues

It was sealed last week, but the Broncos will be without playoff football in January for the seventh year in a row, the second-longest post-season drought in the NFL currently.

Payton’s team gave it a good shot and for the first time since the 2016, Super Bowl 50 team, it felt like Broncos Country had a team that they could root for and a team that could bring some cheer back to Mile High. 

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Payton brought a sense of optimism back to the Broncos and he has begun to change the culture of this team, it’s clear for all to see when they look at the tape, and the midseason turnaround personified it. 

So while the short-term future of the franchise seems bleak, there are reasons to be optimistic and in a couple of seasons, there is reason to hold out hope that Payton can bring the Broncos back into the AFC playoffs in the future.

Thank you! 

Finally, a thank you from me to anyone reading this week’s takeaways or to anyone who read one of my takeaway pieces this season.

If you’re a general NFL fan then I hope you enjoy the storyline-littered NFL playoffs, and if you are a member of Broncos Country then have hope and get mock drafting!

I hope to see you back again reading takeaways throughout the offseason and into 2024.

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Takeaways as the Broncos’ playoff hopes officially end despite victory

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After their most tumultuous week in the Sean Payton era, the Denver Broncos overcame their lacklustre divisional rivals, the Los Angeles Chargers.

The win ensures they’re still in with a chance of ending with a winning record for the first time since 2016, here are my takeaways from the Broncos’ victory on a bittersweet day in Mile High closing out 2023.

Out of the playoffs

Despite all the improvements this year from last season’s fiasco, the Broncos still fell short and will be absent from the NFL playoffs for an eighth year. 

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They had chances to make the post-season and the ball was in their court on numerous occasions throughout the year including losses to the Las Vegas Raiders, Washington Commanders, New York Jets and New England Patriots at home, those losses have not only cost the Broncos a playoff spot but also a shot at winning the AFC West. 

Hindsight is wonderful and in reality, the rest of the schedule may have played out differently but when looking at the results this season it’s tough to look past the early 1-5 hole the Broncos dug themselves in early this year, which was their downfall.

No dip in QB play

A positive for the Broncos, in the medium term, was their level of quarterback play from Jarrett Stidham didn’t appear to drop off from the level that we saw in the previous 16 weeks with Russell Wilson under centre. 

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The good news about that is, that Stidham’s contract is $242 million cheaper than Wilson’s, so if Payton can get a similar level of production for $242 million cheaper the Broncos may be able to take the dead cap hit if they cut Wilson.

Looking ahead to the off-season 

With the playoffs now out of reach for good, Sean Payton will be casting half an eye to the offseason and assessing who he wants to keep in the building to take the next step forward in his Broncos tenure. 

This season didn’t quite see the ‘fire sale’ most were expecting ahead of the trade deadline, but in the end, it still seems that the Broncos will be letting some stars go in the offseason, just for different reasons than it was in weeks five and six of the season.

As it seems more likely that the Broncos will cut Wilson in the offseason it all depends now on whether he is designated as a pre or post-June 1st cut, which will determine how much of the dead cap hit is eaten by the Broncos in 2024, coincidently determining how extensive the roster deconstruction will be in the summer. 

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A number of stars in the roster will become unrestricted free agents including Lloyd Cushenberry, Josey Jewell and P.J. Locke. 

If the Broncos do decide to take the full brunt of the dead cap hit it would be near-impossible to keep any of the impending free agents around, it would also mean one or two stars would likely have to be traded, or some mega contract reconstructions would have to take place.

Potential future QB auditions? 

About 24 hours after the Broncos closed out their final home match of the season, two of the possible suitors for the Broncos at the quarterback position took the field in the College Football Playoff. 

JJ McCarthy led a game-tying drive late in the Rose Bowl before leading the game-winning drive in overtime to see the Michigan Wolverines make the National Championship. 

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McCarthy is yet to declare for the draft and as a junior he could return to Ann Arbor to compete for the Wolverines in his senior year, but some draft projections have McCarthy as a late first-rounder/second-round talent this year and depending on the Broncos’ draft position, McCarthy could be a target. 

In the later semi-final, Michael Penix Jr. suited up for the Washington Huskies and guided them to the National Championship game, overcoming the Texas Longhorns in New Orleans. 

Penix impressed going into Sean Payton’s old stomping ground and could improve his draft stock more if he takes the Huskies to a National Championship victory next Monday.

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Penix has an injury history which may tank his draft stock somewhat and his projections place him as high as a first-rounder and as low as a day-three pick.

Week 18 preview 

For the final time until September, the Broncos will take the field searching for something to salvage their 2023 season, all that stands between them and a first-winning season in seven years is a trip to the 7-9, Las Vegas Raiders. 

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The Raiders have been without a permanent head coach since the night of Halloween but have gone 4-4 under interim head coach Antonio Pierce including a win over the Chiefs in Arrowhead and a 63-21 dismantling of the Chargers. 

Stidham started the final two games of the 2022 season for the Raiders going 0-2 throwing four touchdowns and three interceptions. 

The Broncos will be hoping to avenge their narrow week one defeat to the Raiders which proved costly at the end of the season.

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Takeaways as a disastrous third quarter all but ends the Broncos’ playoff hopes

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Denver were so close to finally making the playoffs, all they had to do was win their final three games, all against backups and all against AFC teams with losing records. 

After the loss to Detroit, Sean Payton’s team had to be flawless if they were to make the postseason, unfortunately, they fell at the first hurdle and an old nemesis, the New England Patriots sealed the Broncos’ fate. 

Here are my takeaways as the Broncos’ playoff hopes came grinding to a halt in primetime.

Reality Check

Perhaps this result was a message from the football gods, a reality check to remind Broncos fans of the reality of this roster, in truth it just simply isn’t good enough yet to make the playoffs, they showed us that earlier in the season.

Despite a rejuvenation that showed there is hope for the future, when it gets to crunch time this team still lacks the pieces to get themselves over the line and show they’re a proper playoff unit. 

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There are reasons for Broncos country to be optimistic for the future, and for nine weeks Sean Payton and Vance Joseph had the team riding a wave, unfortunately, the playoff train is over. 

Third quarter woes

The Broncos went into halftime winning seven to three, it was a lacklustre offensive first half but the defence kept an underwhelming New England offence in check. 

It seemed like the recipe for success was just for the Broncos’ offence to move the ball on one or two drives early in the second half and they could get over the line.

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In reality, the opposite happened and a disastrous third-quarter showing took the Broncos from a probable playoff team to middling mediocrity.

Bailey Zappe did well navigating the soft Broncos pass rush climbing up in the pocket on a couple of drives that resulted in Ezekiel Elliott and Mike Gesicki touchdowns to give the Patriots a 17-7 lead before Marvin Mims fumbled the kickoff into the oncoming Patriots who carried it in for another score putting the Patriots up 23-7. 

A snowball of errors paired with some questionable playcalling and poor quarterback play saw the Broncos fall too far behind the Patriots to mount a comeback. 

Some good high-tempo offence and more explosive playcalling saw the Broncos march down the field twice in quick succession to draw level, but in the end, the Patriots managed to get into field goal range and put the game away for good.

Offensive play calling

It wasn’t until those two drives in the fourth quarter when the Broncos were backed into a corner that the gameplan shifted from running between the tackles on first down, outside on second down, then a long developing route concept on third down, before Riley Dixon stepped on to punt on fourth down. 

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Sean Payton deserves a lot of credit for how he’s changed the culture of this group and they’ve come a long way from where they were under Nathaniel Hackett last season. 

Nonetheless, in the last few weeks the offensive play calling has been questionable and when the opposition stops the run Payton seems to be reluctant to call any high-tempo offence or any explosive offence that threatens to take the top off of the opposition’s defence.

Whether that’s because he doesn’t trust his quarterback or whether he just trusts indefinitely in his offensive scheme is up for debate but somewhere, the playcalling needs to change and become less predictable. 

Offseason movement?

Now the Broncos don’t have to think about the post-season, they can start to look to the offseason beyond and think about who will move on the roster. 

The biggest questions come on the offensive side of the ball, what happens at quarterback? Are there any more offensive line additions? Where do they look in the draft? 

The future of Russell Wilson is in question, his contract is so big but this offseason is the cheapest ‘out’ they will have across the entire extension he was given in 2022. 

There’s a very real possibility that George Paton (if he’s still there), takes the dead cap hit for 2024 and looks to the draft for a rookie to sit behind an affordable veteran for a year or two. 

It was announced on Wednesday that Wilson would be benched in place of Jarrett Stidham for the final two weeks of the season, this doesn’t necessarily mean that Wilson’s fate is sealed and some journalists have speculated that the front office is just protecting themselves against a $37 million that Wilson would get guaranteed if he got injured. 

Whoever is the general manager next season has a dilemma to make at the quarterback position as well as with underwhelming receiver Jerry Jeudy (who attracted trade interest earlier in the season) and centre Lloyd Cushenberry III who will be hitting free agency in the offseason but will command a sizeable fee if his services are to be retained.

Week 17 preview

On Sunday it will be Stidham who takes the field against the Chargers with the Broncos’ playoff hopes hanging by a thread. 

Two weeks ago the Broncos brushed the Chargers aside 24-7, since that game both teams have lost two games in a row and the Chargers moved on from head coach Brandon Staley. 

It will be a game between backups as the Chargers will continue to field Easton Stick under centre while Stidham will take the snaps after Wilson’s benching. 

The Chargers will be hoping to not be swept by the Broncos for the first time since 2019, whilst the Broncos are looking to keep their playoff hopes alive in week 18 and chase a first winning season since 2016.

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Playoffs: Who’s in and who’s out in the AFC? 

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It’s that time of year when we start seeing graphics on X (formerly known as Twitter) from ESPN, FOX and CBS about who is eliminated from playoff contention and who has clinched a playoff berth. 

While the AFC has some frontrunners the race for the wildcard spots is encapsulating viewing, for example, the AFC South has three teams on 8-6 alone. 

Let’s dive into the playoff picture, see who everyone still has to play and how the playoff picture may end up working itself out. 

The locks: 

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While this article is mostly about discussing the convoluted wildcard picture, we should pay homage to the teams at the top of the conference who are already locks to make it in. 

The Baltimore Ravens have already clinched their place in the playoffs, while the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs are definitely making the playoffs and will be playing at least one home game this January. 

Watch out for the week 17 clash as Miami heads into Baltimore in a matchup that could define who earns the all-important one seed in the AFC.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 

The Jaguars get their own tier because they’re definitely in, but aren’t 100% locked into the top of the AFC South (yet).

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Their schedule is one of the easiest down the stretch, they travel across Florida to play the resurgent, playoff-chasing, Tampa Bay Buccaneers this weekend before playing the Carolina Panthers and Tennesee Titans who are both out of the playoff picture. 

Jacksonville should win out from here thanks to their head-to-head record against the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans, if they can achieve that they will be top of the AFC South and earn themselves the fourth seed in the AFC.

Cleveland Browns:

The Browns are in and Kevin Stefanski needs to be nominated for Coach of the Year after his miraculous work with this team despite all of their injuries. 

They’re 9-5 and probably need one more win to solidify their position in the playoffs, (albeit a wildcard place due to the Ravens’ record atop the AFC North) their schedule is a tough one though. 

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Facing exclusively AFC opponents, Joe Flacco will be the signal-caller as they head to the Texans and the Cincinnati Bengals on either side of a home meeting with the New York Jets. 

While they’re all but in themselves the Browns could play a huge role in the rest of the AFC Wildcard picture playing two of the chasing pack both on the road.

The rest

Now, we’ve named five teams who are in for sure, most seasons we’d be discussing three or four teams who are fighting it out for the final two wildcard spots. 

Not in 2023, this year the AFC is a gauntlet, we have a six-horse race for the final two wildcard spots as we head into the latter part of December. 

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As of week 15, the Bengals and Colts are occupying the final two spots with 8-6 records, just outside because of tiebreakers are the Bills and Texans, while the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos are a game back at 7-7. 

Four of the six are playing backup quarterbacks and the Broncos and Bills have both experienced torrid runs at some stage this season. 

Yet somehow, with three weeks to go, every team is in the thick of the playoff race and it’s looking to be the most compelling run-in we’ve seen in a while. 

Who does everyone face? :

Buffalo Bills (8-6) – @ Chargers, vs Patriots, @ Dolphins 

Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) – @ Steelers, @ Chiefs, vs Browns 

Denver Broncos (7-7) – vs Patriots, vs Chargers, @ Raiders

Houston Texans (8-6) – vs Browns, vs Titans, @ Colts 

Indianapolis Colts (8-6) – @ Falcons, vs Raiders, vs Texans

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7) – vs Bengals, @ Seahawks, @ Ravens 

Who’s in and who’s out? : 

It’s impossible to call, none of these teams convince you that they’re going to run away with it and stroll into the wildcard places, but we can make some educated predictions. 

By the end of week 18, there’s the possibility that we see three teams with 11-6 records in the wildcard spots and two teams sitting on the outside looking with 10 wins and no postseason to show for it, on the contrary, in the NFC we could see teams with losing records make it into the playoffs.

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Buffalo Bills (Current record: 8-6, vs division 2-2, vs AFC 4-5, AFC games remaining – 3, Ninth seed)

Starting with the Bills, they have been rampant since losing to the Broncos on Monday Night Football in early November, despite being unlucky in the early half of the season they’re now earning their own luck and convincingly stringing together strong performances. 

They beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead and blew out the Dallas Cowboys at home, building some strong momentum ahead of their final three games. 

Given their form they should brush past the Chargers and the Patriots and Bills Mafia will have their trip to division rivals, the Dolphins in week 18 earmarked as a potential ‘win and in’ game. 

What complicates that, of course, is Miami could still be playing for the one seed in week 18 so won’t be pulling any punches, conversely, the Bills could find themselves in a situation where, if they win they win the entire AFC East, but if they lose they don’t make the playoffs at all.

Either way, it promises to be a show-stopping game that will likely head the national Sunday Night Football billing in week 18. 

Key game: Week 18 @ Miami Dolphins

Prediction: 10-7

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Cincinnati Bengals (Current record: 8-6, vs division 0-4, vs AFC 3-6, AFC games rem. 3, sixth seed)

When Joe Burrow got hurt it felt like most of the league had given up on the Bengals, no one would have been talking about them being a leading horse in the AFC playoff picture as of week 16. 

As it turns out, Lou Anarumo’s defence has done excellently keeping them in games allowing backup quarterback Jake Browning to play with little pressure and do enough to get them across the line in close games.

The Bengals face a tough schedule though and it’s difficult to see them going any better than 1-2 over this stretch. 

The best they can hope for is beating Pittsburgh on the road (an extremely tough task) and then beating the Browns who may have nothing to play for in week 18 at home. 

Key game: Week 16 @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Prediction: 8-9

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Denver Broncos (Current record: 7-7, vs div. 2-2, vs AFC 4-5, AFC games rem. 3, 11th seed)

The Broncos have the easiest schedule of the chasing pack and do hold the tiebreaker over the Bills as well as facing three beatable AFC opponents in their final three games. 

After starting 1-5 no one expected the Broncos to be anywhere near this conversation and it’s a credit to Sean Payton and Vance Joseph that the Broncos have a chance to make it in. 

The Texans hold a tiebreaker over the Broncos which could be a key factor to follow but facing three backup quarterbacks against teams that have nothing to play for may come into the Broncos’ favour.

Already being a game back at 7-7 their task is simple, you MUST win out and hope some of the teams around them drop games against other playoff chasers, or perhaps even slip up on a nonchalant game against a team that is already eliminated.

Key game: Week 18 @ Las Vegas Raiders

Prediction: 10-7

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Houston Texans (Current record: 8-6, vs div. 2-2, vs AFC 5-4, AFC games rem. 3, eighth seed)

Demeco Ryans is the probable front-runner for Coach of the Year, and for good reason. He’s totally transformed the Texans from a number-one pick candidate to a playoff contender overnight. 

CJ Stroud’s play at quarterback has been phenomenal and stands him in good stead to pick up the Offensive Rookie of the Year award at NFL Honours this February.

However, with Stroud in concussion protocol and Case Keenum starting at quarterback, partnered with a tough schedule featuring two playoff contenders and a division rival, the Texans face a huge challenge to make it in. 

They’re capable of beating anyone on their day and their next two games being at home helps massively, but they won’t want to be in a position requiring them to win on the road in Indianapolis in week 18 if they can help it.

Key game: Week 18 @ Indianapolis Colts

Prediction: 9-8

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Indianapolis Colts (Current record: 8-6, vs div. 3-2, vs AFC 6-4, AFC games rem. 2, seventh seed

The Colts have been on a rollercoaster ride in 2023, going from inconsistent, yet mesmerising play under rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, to the return of ‘Minshew Mania’, the Colts have continued to defy the odds. 

They have the best standing of any of the teams we’ve discussed because their divisional and conference records are superior to any team, but they also have one of the more inconsistent track records of any of the teams that we’ve looked at. 

They scraped past the Patriots in Germany, had a shootout with the Browns, were blown out against the Bengals and blew the Steelers out themselves, it’s so difficult to try and place the Colts on this list because they can go toe-to-toe with the best, but drop a game to absolutely anyone. 

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In week 16 they will head to the Atlanta Falcons who are a game back from the playoffs in the NFC South but are coming off the back of an embarrassing loss to the Carolina Panthers last week and somewhat mirror the Colts in their inconsistencies. 

Arthur Smith is on the hot seat and has resorted to his third quarterback change of the year opting for Taylor Heinicke and this is a game that the inconsistent Colts could drop given their record across the season as previously highlighted.

In their last two games, they welcome the Raiders who can cause any team problems on their day under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, and then fellow AFC South playoff hopefuls the Houston Texans in week 18. 

They’re the toughest team to place but given their divisional and conference records they’re certainly the favourites to make the wildcard round out of all the teams in the race. 

Key game: Week 18 vs Houston Texans

Prediction: 11-6

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Pittsburgh Steelers (Current record: 7-7, vs div. 3-1, vs AFC 5-5, AFC games rem. 2, 10th seed)

It’s well-documented that the Steelers have never had a losing record under head coach Mike Tomlin in his 16 years as head coach in the Steel City. 

While that streak could very much continue it’s difficult to see a scenario where the Steelers come out of their last three games as a wildcard team. 

They’d need to run the table due to their 7-7 record and they face three teams all with their eyes set on the post-season themselves. 

They welcome the Bengals in a huge game on Saturday before travelling across the country to Seattle to play the Seahawks who are currently one game out of the NFC wildcard picture before heading back across to Baltimore in week 18 who may be playing to secure the one seed. 

It’s certainly plausible that the Steelers win two of those games to preserve Tomlin’s streak but they will need to win out to even stand a chance, of getting into the playoffs. 

Key game: Week 16 vs Bengals 

Prediction: 8-9

Final Prediction: 

  1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4) 
  2. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) Head-to-head tiebreaker vs Miami
  3. Miami Dolphins (12-5)
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6)
  5. Cleveland Browns (11-6) Head-to-head tiebreaker vs Indianapolis (WC)
  6. Indianapolis Colts (11-6) (WC)
  7. Denver Broncos (10-7) Head-to-head record vs Buffalo (WC)
  8. Buffalo Bills (10-7) (OUT)
  9. Houston Texans (9-8) (OUT)
  10. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-9) Division record tiebreaker (OUT)
  11. Cincinnati Bengals (8-9) (OUT)