Category: Denver Broncos

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Six Takeaways from The Broncos’ Week Two Loss

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When the Broncos were 21-3 at the start of the second quarter, Broncos Country rejoiced as a year of anguish lifted off the Mile High faithful. 

Little did we know, three hours later the feeling of anguish would be piled on in agonising fashion, leaving the raptures of a second-quarter blowout far in the rearview mirror.

From egregious penalty no-calls to blown-up pass protection the second-half car crash sank Broncos fans into a spiral of all-to-familiar despair. 

Here are my six takeaways from the Denver Broncos’ devastating 35-33 loss to the Washington Commanders.

The offence looked good (again) *in the first half

Russell Wilson came hot out of the gate last week against the Las Vegas Raiders and he galloped out to an even more impressive start on Sunday. 

Wilson went six of eight for 154 yards throwing two touchdowns in the first half and looked to be having an even bigger improvement under Sean Payton. 

Payton’s playcalling allowed the offence to run the ball opening up play action for Wilson to then show his arm strength throwing down the field to rookie Marvin Mims Jr. who had a great game. 

If the Broncos can continue the trends we’ve seen in both the first halves this season across entire games then the offence won’t be a concern in 2023.

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Marvin Mims Jr. 

It’s no secret that George Paton is good at drafting in the middle rounds of the draft, and when Paton moved up to take Marvin Mims Jr. at the end of the second round, the Broncos found a bonafide star.

On Sunday, Mims showcased his speed and elusiveness both in the passing game and on special teams as a return man. 

A 60-yard touchdown reception, 113 yards (off of two receptions!) and a 31-yard punt return put the former Oklahoma wideout on the map in Denver.

With the offence in dire need of explosiveness and over-the-top vertical threats, Mims Jr. will quickly find his purpose in Payton’s scheme going forward.

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Pass rush finally got home 

It wasn’t a mauling by the Broncos front seven, but after the woeful showing of last week, the four Broncos sacks were a refreshing sight. 

There was often pressure on Sam Howell in the first half and the pass rush disrupted the Commanders’ offensive game. 

Jonathan Cooper notched two sacks on the day and impressed with his performance, stepping up for fellow 2021 draftee Baron Browning who remains on the PUP list. 

Penalties wiped a couple of other huge sacks for the Broncos and had they stood perhaps we’d have more praise for the impact the defence had on this game.

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Defence cannot make a stop 

While the pressure generated was a positive sign, the overall defensive performance once again left a lot of questions for Sean Payton and Vance Joseph to answer.

Through one-and-a-half quarters of football, they had managed to hold the Commanders to only three points, until a Russell Wilson fumble shifted the momentum to Washington.

After that moment the Commanders put up 32 points to the Broncos’ three in the next two quarters worth of football and the game flipped completely. 

If it wasn’t Howell dissecting the zone coverage with his arm it was Brian Robinson running angry on the ground or Antonio Gibson on the screen pass which killed the defence in the second half.

With a trip across the country to face the red-hot Miami Dolphins looming, Joseph needs to figure out how he can make this defence work, and he needs to do it quickly.

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Washington’s defence ran the show

For all the issues of the offence in the second half, we must give the Commanders’ second-half defence their flowers, they changed the game after halftime and helped the offence in being able to put up 32 points.

Montez Sweat, Daron Payne and Chase Young consistently caused issues for Wilson, disrupting the passing game and stuffing the run on early downs, knocking the Broncos completely off rhythm. 

The offensive line has disappointed over two weeks, struggling in pass protection, admittedly against some of the best pass rushers in the league in Chase Young and Maxx Crosby, but question marks are there to be answered once again for Payton.

When your franchise quarterback gets sacked seven times and hit a further 14 times, there’s always going to be a huge struggle to mount a functional offence.

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Officials. 

It often feels cheap blaming the officials after a loss, and they weren’t the reason the Broncos didn’t win this game being 21-3 up, but they undoubtedly played their part. 

The fumble which flipped the momentum of the game on its head came after a missed face mask on Russell Wilson, as clear as day in front of the down judge on the sideline, but a no-call gave Washington the ball with short field.

Then, as time expired on the two-point conversion to send the game to overtime a defensive pass interference call wasn’t given against Benjamin St.Juste in coverage on Courtland Sutton and the Broncos lost the game.

Now, who knows what happens in overtime, the Commanders could have received the kick-off and followed up their second-half display winning the game on the first drive of OT, but when the stakes in the NFL are so high, missed calls like that are so hurtful for a franchise.

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Looking ahead to week three 

After two weeks Sean Payton has more unanswered questions than I’m sure he’d have liked to have at this stage of the season, especially now they stare 0-3 in the face on the road to Miami next Sunday. 

Nonetheless, it will be a frenzy of past and present Broncos as Vance Joseph and Payton try to better Vic Fangio and Bradley Chubb and cause a much-needed upset to buoy the mood in Broncos Country.

Lookout for a wristband on Wilson’s arm this week as Payton hopes to sharpen up playcalling, and hope to see a few players return to help the Broncos’ depth, particularly on defence, namely Frank Clark and Riley Moss. 

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PICK SIX – Week 2

Welcome back to our new series, in which Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler pick over half a dozen things from this week’s action. After Week 2, we’re unsure about the Broncos, impressed by Puka Nacua, entertained by the Bills and concerned about the QBs for the Bengals, Bears and Jets. So, without further ado, here’s our Pick Six…

Nacua looks pukka in Rams’ young offense

If you play fantasy football, then the name Puka Nacua was probably a hot commodity on the waiver wire last week. And if he’s still available in your league, he won’t be for very much longer. The fifth-round pick impressed on his debut with 10 catches for 119 yards in the Rams’ win over the Seattle Seahawks and his follow-up earned him a place in the NFL record books. Nacua hauled in 15 of his 20 targets from Matthew Stafford against the impressive 49ers defense on Sunday, totalling 147 yards. Those 15 receptions are the most by a rookie in a single game in NFL history. 

Nacua is also the first rookie to have double-digit receptions in each of his first two NFL games, and his 25 receptions so far is a new record for a rookie in his first two games – a league high held by ex-49er Earl Cooper that had been in the books for over 40 years. Nacua is on pace for 212 receptions this year, which would smash the single-season reception record by 63. Let’s pump the brakes on that one, but it certainly highlights the exceptional start he has made.

When you lack draft capital and cap space, hitting on late-round draft picks is a necessity. The Rams have possibly unearthed a real gem here in the BYU man. Nacua’s emergence is especially timely with Cooper Kupp on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Kupp’s absence left many questions about how the Rams would start the season. Nacua is not only filling that absence, he’s thriving because of it. The question on Rams fans’ lips now will be “what might this offense look like when both get on the field?” [SB]

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Joe’s woes are a pain in the calf

Things are definitely not going to plan for the Bengals, whose second divisional loss – 27-24 to the Ravens – leaves them slumped at 0-2. With only two starters playing preseason games and franchise QB Joe Burrow easing back from injury, a slow start was inevitable. The team faced exactly the same circumstances last year and still made the AFC Championship decider so there’s no panic or overreaction… yet. Then again, only 9.6% of teams starting 0-2 since the 1970 merger have made the playoffs so it’s not ideal.

In 2022, Burrow’s issue was an appendectomy. This time, a calf strain that wiped out his training camp was clearly still a problem in the disastrous season opener (a 24-3 shellacking by Cleveland). And the Cincy offense stuttered yet again on Sunday: early in Q2, they’d gained 14 yards from six plays and had no first downs, and Burrow’s 35 passing yards at HT were actually down from last week. He did eventually find some sort of rhythm (27 of 41, 222 yards, 2 TDs) but with a red zone INT as well, it wasn’t enough.

Losing to an AFC North foe is one thing but having your franchise QB – and the league’s highest-paid player – unwilling to run in case of further injury is quite another. Despite the obvious caution, he still tweaked his calf late in the game and limped off. Even a couple of weeks out could totally scupper the season for Cincinnati, who only have Jake Browning and Will Grier as cover. Worryingly, in the post-game presser, Burrow could only muster “I don’t know”, “it’s tough to tell” and “we’ll see” answers when asked about his immediate and long-term fitness. 

If the Bengals are going to dig themselves out of this hole again, they’ll need Burrow available and back at his best. But at the moment, neither of those things looks very likely. [ST]

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Sean Payton can’t Hackett

Here’s a life lesson: if you have nothing nice to say, then don’t say anything at all. 

“One of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL” – these are the words of Sean Payton, who replaced Nathaniel Hackett as head coach of the Denver Broncos this offseason. Those words may come back to bite the new HC in the backside as the Broncos slipped to 0-2, unfathomably a worse start than the team made under Hackett’s stewardship last term.

It is still early days and there are some small glimpses from which to take some optimism. Russell Wilson looks better than he did a year ago. Admittedly, that’s a low bar to cross but in the first half in particular, Wilson and the offense looked good. Marvin Mims had a breakout game, getting on the end of two deep shots and also posting a long punt return. Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton were back on the same field for what feels like the first time in forever, and Javonte Williams showed some nice bursts in the running game. A handsome lead grew, and optimism ensued. Maybe, finally, the Broncos had flipped the switch.

Unfortunately though, when up 21-3, a costly Wilson fumble changed the direction of the game. Washington would go on a 32-points-to-3 run with the Broncos defense gashed by Sam Howell through the air and Brian Robinson on the ground. The offense could not sustain drives and, despite a late field goal and Hail Mary almost getting Denver out of trouble, they fell short on the two-point attempt needed to tie the game. 

An ugly-looking trip across the country to the red-hot and explosive Dolphins is next on the schedule as the Broncos stare into an 0-3 hole. The progression between Wilson and Payton will determine whether this season is a success or not but the early returns are not encouraging in Mile High. [SB]

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Cool your jets on Zach

After a dramatic Week 1 win against the Bills, New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson came back down to earth with Sunday’s 30-10 loss to Dallas. Sure, the highlight reel includes a 68-yard touchdown pass to namesake Garrett (much of which was YAC) in the first half and he kept things close for a while. But as the game began to unravel, so did he.

As we discussed last week, the Cowboys defense is rock solid, having allowed just one TD so far this season (the aforementioned Garrett Wilson catch-and-run). In particular, DOPY-in-waiting Micah Parsons is on fire. He wreaked havoc all day and got two of his team’s three sacks this weekend. The backup QB buckled under the pressure, completing just 12 of 27 (44.4%) for 170 yards and throwing three INTs in the fourth quarter, killing any faint hopes of a comeback.

To be fair, they weren’t the reason the Jets lost. His second and third turnovers came from blind-faith throws when the game was all but over anyway. But with no run game to share the load (Breece Hall, Dalvin Cook and Michael Carter combined for a paltry 24 yards, 12 less than Wilson himself), New York had little to offer without a mercurial QB able to weave some magic.

I don’t know what a healthy Aaron Rodgers would’ve done against this Dallas team but I’m guessing his second-half drives would’ve delivered more than one fumble, two three-and-outs and three interceptions. I also don’t know what the long-term answer at QB is but if this outing is anything to go by, it’s not Zach Wilson. Even if he isn’t terrible, he needs too much help around him to be good and yet HC Robert Saleh remains adamant that he’s rolling with the 24-year-old.

With the Patriots and Chiefs next up, let’s see how far they roll… and in which direction. [ST]

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Anything but a Fields day

The Chicago Bears felt they hit the jackpot in the draft. Number 1 overall pick in hand and their own quarterback of the future on the roster. Or so they thought…

Fields made improvements in Year 2, developing as a passer and adding an extra dimension with his ability in his legs. He rushed for over 1,100 yards a season ago but whether by choice or by coincidence, he doesn’t seem intent on rushing this campaign. Fields took six sacks against the Buccaneers on Sunday. On several of those sacks, the protection up front was solid for long enough for Fields to either try to escape or throw the ball away. However, Fields repeatedly held onto the ball too long, which allowed the defense to converge on him. 

Fields was fortunate to only commit two turnovers. He fumbled the ball twice, both of which the Bears managed to recover. He did, however, throw two interceptions with the game on the line. The ugliest-ever pick six might go to Shaq Barrett who was the recipient of the first gift. After a bit of pinball, the linebacker came down with the ball and was pushed into the end zone by the rest of the defense from the 4-yard line. (Barrett has dedicated this season to his late daughter Arrayah, who drowned in April aged two, and marked his first NFL TD by blowing a kiss to the sky so maybe it was also the most beautiful pick-six ever.) With the Bears now in desperation mode, 10 points behind, the next drive would lead to another interception on 3rd and 19 following a crippling 11-yard sack on 2nd down.

Fields has the ability to make some amazing throws to all levels of the field but he lacks any sort of consistency. Yesterday, he missed some wide-open targets that kept points off the board for the Bears. Fields is now almost 30 starts into his career so his lack of field vision is a huge concern for Chicago. The only silver lining would be that if Fields continues to be this bad, the team might have a chance to put it right at the next draft. Well, maybe. [SB]

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Normal service resumes in Buffalo

Forget Week 1’s poor showing against the Jets. The Bills are back in business and all is well in upstate New York.

In a blowout 38-10 win on Sunday evening, Buffalo absolutely suffocated the Las Vegas Raiders. A 75-yard TD drive on the opening possession was as good as it got for the Silver and Black, before it all became too easy for the Bills. They barely needed to get out of second gear all night.

Josh Allen went from four turnovers last week to completing his first 13 passes of the game this week, not missing a target till three minutes before half-time. He ended up with 31 of 37 (83.8%) for 274 yards and three TDs (and crucially, no INTs this time). His touchdown pass to Khalil Shakir was a great piece of improvisation after an abandoned scramble forced him to retreat, while the others – a gentle lob to Dawson Knox and an impressive cross-body throw to Gabe Davis – were both made on the run.

Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey mixed in plenty of ground game and for once, it wasn’t all left to Allen to carry the load. The rushing attack contributed 183 yards, with James Cook’s career-high of 17 carries for 123 rushing yards complemented by Damien Harris (33 yards) and Latavius Murray (22 yards), both of whom trundled in for touchdowns. Even the run defense held firm, limiting the Raiders’ Josh Jacobs to -2 yards on nine carries (the lowest total by a reigning rushing champion in the Super Bowl era).

So it’s as you were, people. The Buffalo Bills are fine and should be right up there in the AFC title race come the end of the season. [ST]

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Takeaways from the Broncos’ Week One Loss

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Sean Payton literally kicked his tenure for the Denver Broncos off in eye-catching fashion, opting to go for an onside kick on the Broncos’ opening kickoff of the game on Sunday night. 

Despite the ball ending up in the Las Vegas Raiders’ hands anyway due to an illegal touching penalty, Payton laid down a marker early against a division rival. 

The first half followed a similar trend, while the second half failed to ever get going with mistakes by both teams often extending drives in agonising fashion.

With that said, here are seven key takeaways, both positive and negative, heading forward. 

  1. Russell Wilson’s first half 

Russell Wilson’s performance levels heading into this season were a big talking point, and if his week one performance levels are anything to go off of then he’s getting back to his old ways under Payton’s reign. Wilson managed 17/19 for 125 yards and two passing touchdowns in the first half. In the second he threw for only 52 yards off of 15 attempts completing 10 passes. It wasn’t the flashiest of games but a promising performance to kick off 2023 after his 2022 showing.

  1. Running back duo 

After the Broncos’ offseason additions it was clear Payton would be bringing a run-first approach to the offence, two blocking tight ends made the 53-man roster and the offensive line was bolstered. To backup up their gameplan Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine had a good day on the ground, both consistently picking up yardage on their rushing attempts without ever truly breaking out a huge run. Once they can get undrafted rookie Jaleel McGlaughlin involved consistently they could become one of the league’s more under-the-radar rushing attacks.

  1. General offensive performance in the first half 

Somewhat a combination of the first two points, the general offensive improvements from last year’s levels were pleasing to see for Broncos fans. On the contrary, it was noticeable that the Broncos only went deep on one play in the entire game, a trend that was perhaps highlighted due to Jerry Jeudy’s absence this week.

Greg Dulcich’s curtailed afternoon also impacted the passing game in the second half, lacking a dynamic vertical threat like the second-year Cal, tight end. One would hope that as Jeudy and Dulcich regain their fitness, Payton will be able to mix in their run attack while sprinkling more explosive passing downs into their drives.

  1. Damarri Mathis targeted 

Unfortunately, there were negatives to discuss as well, and ironically, they came on defence, something not too familiar to Broncos fans in recent years. While the offence was efficient and relatively effective, the defence couldn’t get off the field. Garoppolo was able to dissect Vance Joseph’s coverages comfortably and in particular, he targeted second-year cornerback, Damarri Mathis who struggled to contain Jakobi Myers.

Myers scored two touchdowns on the day and while Patrick Surtain II and Essang Bassey contained Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow respectively, Myers was often found in open space registering nine catches for 81 yards. After a promising training camp, the Broncos will be hoping to see Mathis bounce back in week two when he’ll be given the challenge of covering the Washington Commanders’ Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson.

  1. Sterns injury

After the optimism of the onside kick came the agony of an injury for the Broncos. On the opening drive of the game, Joseph’s defence lost one of its best training camp performers in safety Caden Sterns. Sterns was looking to have a breakout season in his third year out of Texas but will now have to endure rehab on his season-ending knee injury instead. 

  1. Pass rush lacking

Perhaps the most alarming takeaway from Sunday’s loss was the lack of pressure that the Broncos managed to generate from their front seven. Despite blitzing the Raiders on 31% of their dropbacks (12th in the league) they only pressured Jimmy Garoppolo on 13.8% of his dropbacks (the lowest in the league), the next lowest was Jordan Love who was pressured on 20% of dropbacks against the Chicago Bears.

The numbers are as alarming as the film looks, none of the front seven consistently beat their opposing lineman and they struggled to ever get to Garoppolo. Going forward, Joseph will have to figure out a way to generate consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks, with the likes of the Bills, Dolphins, Chargers and Chiefs on their schedule later this season. 

  1. Lutz misses

Finally, Will Lutz’s misses on both an extra point and field goal, inevitably costing the Broncos the game has to be discussed. Extra points should be automatic for kickers in the NFL and a missed field goal from 55 yards stings when the final score was 17-16 to a division rival in your own house sinking your head-to-head against the Raiders to 7 straight losses. Hopefully, being a veteran, Lutz will be able to put the misses behind him and come back stronger to make some crucial kicks later in the year.

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2023 NFL Draft: Three important needs for the Denver Broncos 

The Denver Broncos find themselves in a hole ahead of the 2023 NFL Draft in the wake of their trade for Russell Wilson last March. 

In order to bring the nine-time pro bowl quarterback to Denver, the Broncos had to part ways with their 2022 and 2023 first and second-round picks. 

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As a result, general manager George Paton and head coach Sean Payton won’t be on the clock until pick 67 in the third round of the draft on Friday night. 

George Paton has shown that he has the capability to draft well in the middle rounds of the draft picking up players like Baron Browning, Caden Sterns, Jonathan Cooper, Damarri Mathis and Greg Dulcich in the third round or later in his two drafts in charge of the Broncos. 

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The Broncos also have a range of needs across their team which Paton will aim to try to fix in this draft, from offensive line needs to linebacker and cornerback depth. 

The issue for the Broncos this year? They only have five picks in this draft, 67, 68, 108, 139 and 195. In response to this George Paton revealed late last month that the Broncos would be, “more inclined to move back, to get some more picks.” 

So, whether they trade up, trade back or “stick and pick” let’s look at the top three areas of need for the Denver Broncos in the 2023 NFL Draft next week.

Linebacker

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A position group that lacks a lot of standout elite end talent but one that could prove fruitful for Paton and the Broncos at the top of the third round is linebacker. 

Last offseason the Broncos’ front office signed Josey Jewell to a two-year contract extension meaning he’s in the final year of his current deal in Denver, while Alex Singleton was signed to a three-year deal this past offseason. 

Looking beyond the 2023 season the Broncos will want to add some insurance at the position and make sure they have someone to come in and fill Jewell’s void if he isn’t resigned. 

The Broncos might have to trade up into the second round to get the top linebacker on their board, but a number of linebackers should still be available at the top of the third round where the Broncos pick at both 67th and 68th overall.

Potential prospect targets: Daiyan Henley (Washington State), Trenton Simpson (Clemson), DeMarvion Overshown (Texas), Dorian Williams (Tulane)

Defensive Line

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The defensive front for Denver has seen a lot of overhaul over the past year, edge rusher Bradley Chubb was traded to the Miami Dolphins, Shelby Harris was part of the Russell Wilson trade, Dre’mont Jones hit free agency and a number of role players have moved on. 

Randy Gregory and DJ Jones were signed in free agency last offseason and Baron Browning was moved to a more prominent edge rushing role in the preseason, while Zach Allen was signed in free agency this offseason. 

In last year’s draft, the Broncos added some rotational players to their defensive line with Oklahoma’s Nik Bonitto in the second round, Iowa State’s defensive tackle Eyioma Uwazurike in the fourth round and Wisconsin’s Matt Henningsen in the sixth round. 

We could see Paton targeting a similar approach to bring more role players to Denver’s defensive line to help out a fairly thin area on their roster. 

Potential prospect targets: Keeanu Benton (Wisconsin), Siaki Ika (Baylor), Kobie Turner (Wake Forest), Moro Ojomo (Texas), Zacch Pickens (South Carolina), Gervon Dexter Jr. (Florida)

Interior Offensive Line 

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The Broncos spent the majority of free agency overhauling their offensive line and run game personnel. 

Tackle Mike McGlinchey signed a five-year deal worth $87.5 million, and Guard, Ben Powers signed a four-year deal worth $51.5 million to sure up their offensive line which underperformed a lot last year. 

In 2021, the Broncos picked up guard/centre Quinn Meinerz from Wisconsin-Whitewater in the third round and he showed promise at both guard and centre across the last two seasons. 

In last year’s draft, Denver selected centre Luke Wattenberg to push third-year starter, Lloyd Cushenberry III to bolster the interior of their offensive line. 

Interior offensive line isn’t an area of strength in this draft class but Paton has found late-round value at the position in the past and will hope to have similar luck in this year’s draft.

Potential prospect targets: Chandler Zavala (NC State), Andrew Vorhees (USC), Luke Wypler (Ohio State), Joe Tippmann (Wisconsin)

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Will Burrow’s deal reset the QB market?

Before we get completely deluged by Draft content, quarterback contracts are still a talking point in the NFL. There’s Aaron Rodgers’ pending move from Green Bay to “Gang Green”, with the finer details still being thrashed out. Then there’s Lamar Jackson, who wants out from Baltimore but no one seems to be rushing to acquire his services – not yet at least. And there are the contracts for Year 3 QBs that are up for extensions.

Having played three years in the league, the likes of Joe Burrow, the Chargers’ Justin Herbert, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts of the Eagles are now eligible to sort out long-term deals. The first to do so might get the best deal, as each new contract tends to gazump the last, pushing the benchmark ever higher. Yet regardless of whether his contract gets signed before or after the others, the widely held consensus is that Burrow might reset the QB market with the biggest deal ever seen in the NFL.

We know from the Bengals bigwigs the process is already in motion ahead of Burrow’s fifth-year option deadline. At the owners’ meeting in Kansas last week, Cincinnati’s Executive Vice President Katie Blackburn stated that nothing was imminent but confirmed that talks had started. The Bengals will want to know his long-term salary cap hit sooner than later, as they also have other mouths to feed, not least wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. As Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin stated at the NFL Combine, “Sooner is better. Maybe it’s the first piece to come, maybe it’s the last. But we’ll work towards it. We’re not going to rush the process. It’s of vital importance to us. It’s important to Joe, and we’ll work to get it accomplished.”

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There’s no doubt that Joe Burrow has earned the right to a huge deal. His rookie year was curtailed by a nasty ACL injury (the Bengals were 2-7-1 at the time) but a year later, he steered them to their first Super Bowl appearance since 1988. And in 2022, despite an emergency appendectomy during the offseason, he led Cincy’s return to the AFC Championship game and ended a 12-4 campaign with a 35 TD:12 INT ratio and a 68.3% completion rate. Over the past two seasons, only the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes, now-retired Tom Brady and Justin Herbert have logged more passing yards, and he trailed only Mahomes and Buffalo’s Josh Allen for passing touchdowns. Having set his team’s single-season passing yard and touchdown records, he is definitely in line to land a huge contract.

So what else tells us that he’s in line for a mega-payday? Well, despite the (increasingly inaccurate and outdated) reputation for being cheapskates, the Bengals traditionally pay their QBs handsomely. Andy Dalton signed a six-year, $115m extension in 2014. Before him, Carson Palmer penned an extension worth $118m over nine years. Going back yet further to 1990, Boomer Esiason became the second-highest paid player in the league with a six-year, $16m deal (those were the days, eh?). So the precedent is there: owner Mike Brown isn’t afraid to open his wallet when it comes to his quarterbacks.

The ever-rising salary cap is another factor here. It climbed to $224.8m for the forthcoming 2023 season, up nearly $20m on 2022, and that level of increase is widely expected to continue for the rest of the decade. So if the pot of money keeps getting bigger, Cincinnati should be able to dig deeper to keep the likes of Burrow happy.

All this contract shenanigans doesn’t happen in a vacuum so we can’t ignore the current QB market either. In recent weeks, we’ve seen Seattle’s Geno Smith pen a three-year, $105m deal ($35m/year) and Daniel Jones sign a four-year, $160m contract ($40m/year) with the Giants. At the top of the current list, Aaron Rodgers is the only NFL quarterback with an average salary over $50m a year. Sure, Mahomes signed the biggest total contract ($450m over 10 years) but he still trails Rodgers ($50.2m), Russell Wilson in Denver ($49m), Arizona’s Kyler Murray ($46.1m) and Deshaun Watson in Cleveland ($46m) when it comes to annual salary.

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To recap, there’s a strong argument for believing that Joey B is about to recalibrate the QB market. His performances over the last two years warrant it. The Bengals always pay their QBs. The size of other recent deals is on the rise, as is the salary cap. Everything suggests he’s in line to receive for a historic pile of moolah. How historic? Well, Yahoo Sports’ Charles Robinson states, “I’ve had a chance to talk to people now, and they’re already saying Burrow is going to get $55m. He might even get $6om.” Cap expert Andre Perotta suggested eight years/£408m ($51m/year). And most recently, Brad Spielberger of Pro Football Focus projected a four-year deal worth $214m, which works out at a benchmark-setting annual salary of $53.5m.

But yet… There’s just something niggling away at the back of my mind that says “nope, he’s not going to top the list”. So why am I thinking that?

Well, for one, I’ve seen that Spotrac projects Burrow to earn around $44m/year, based on his current market value. I actually think that undersells him a bit, but I can still see something under the magic 50-mark being possible.

My sense is that Burrow is a shrewd chap. I’m not expecting the lad who attended high school in Athens, Ohio, to offer Cincinnati a home-town discount and leave millions on the table. But like TB12 before him, he could be open to a more team-friendly deal – one that helps the Bengals retain Chase and Higgins (a free agent after next season), as well as Logan Wilson, DJ Reader and others with contract negotiations on the horizon. By his own admission, Burrow sees his Super Bowl window as his “entire career”, he wants to stay a Bengal and wants HC Zac Taylor to be there for the duration too.

Ja’Marr Chase himself said, “At the end of the day, I don’t think Joe is really too worried about how much money he’s going to make because he’s already making a tremendous amount. But it’ll all work out. I think Joe knows how he wants to set up his contract to keep some of his weapons around him. And I think that’s the biggest part for him.” These sentiments were echoed by Tobin, who told The Athletic that Burrow is aware of how his contract will impact the rest of the team. “I think Joe understands better than most people. That’s what makes him a great player. Joe sees the big picture.”

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Heaven only knows what the numbers will be but the quotes from Chase and Tobin give me faith that on-field success outweighs hard cash. He can still “get his bag”, as they say, but not at the expense of the rest of the roster. First and foremost, #9 wants to win games, division titles, conference crowns and Super Bowls. I’m not suggesting his next deal follows in the footsteps of Tom Brady, whose biggest-ever contract was his two-year, $50m deal with the Buccaneers. After all, Burrow deserves to be paid what he’s worth – but there are ways and means to do so that suit both team and player.

Like an incentive-based deal, for example. With the Bills, Josh Allen chose to sign a below-market deal of $43m/year, but it was incentive-based, reducing the cap hit. Mahomes’ deal is also loaded with annual incentives, including $1.25m a year for reaching the Super Bowl and $1.25m for winning the league MVP title (so far, so good!). Something similar might work for Joey B; after all, he thinks his team will be contenders for years to come if he can keep the band together. Being locked in for a decade like Mahomes might not be ideal but a long(ish) contract also makes sense. It’ll mean other quarterbacks will eventually pass him in annual salary, making it increasingly good value for the team over time, and it’ll give them some wiggle room should more accounting gymnastics be required.

So after all this to-ing and fro-ing, where am I landing? I’m thinking six years (the same as Allen, less than Mahomes), which is long enough to allow time for some mid-contract restructuring. And I’m thinking $288 million (a fair way behind Mahomes in total contract value but above everyone else) could swing it, which equates to $48 million/year (more than Mahomes, Allen, Watson and Murray but below Rodgers and Wilson). Enough to set you, your kids and your grandkids up (very comfortably) for life, but not a figure that sets new precedents.

I’m sure it can be done with a bit of give and take on both sides. Let’s see if it comes to pass.

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5 things to look out for in Week 14

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Three inter-division clashes and Tua vs Herbert on SNF are among five things to look out for in Week 14

1. Bills out for revenge against the Jets

PFF’s second-ranked offense meets their second-ranked defense for the second time this season as the Buffalo Bills host the New York Jets.

Buffalo regained the lead of the AFC East after Miami’s loss to San Francisco on Sunday, a win over the Jets is crucial before their big division decider against the Dolphins.

Unfortunately, they will be without star pass rusher Von Miller for the rest of the season due to a torn ACL discovered during a scope on the knee he injured on Thanksgiving.

2. Giants desperate for a win in an all-NFC East clash

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The New York Giants are in desperate need for a win as the NFC playoff picture is heating up. Brian Daboll’s team have won just one in four, after starting the year 6-1.

A lack of real quality, especially in roles that require depth is really starting to catch up with them. Daniel Jones’ offense has only scored over 25 points once all season. 

Philadelphia looked like they were back to their old selves after a dominant win over the Titans on Sunday. Another outstanding performance from Jalen Hurts will boost his chances of being named MVP

3. Can the Denver Broncos upset the Kansas City Chiefs?

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Denver hasn’t beaten Kansas City since Week 2 of the 2015 season, the year they won the Super Bowl, meaning that the Chiefs have come out on top in each of the last 13 meetings.

If the Broncos pull off an upset, it could seriously jeopardise the Chiefs’ chances of claiming the top seed in the playoffs. If the Chiefs lose and the Bengals or Ravens win, they will fall all the way to three. 

An unlikely fumble by Travis Kelce cost Mahomes and company the lead in Cincinnati on Sunday night, while the Broncos blew their own lead to a Tyler Huntley-led Baltimore team.

4. Brock Purdy vs Tom Brady in San Francisco

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Tampa Bay are hitting form at the right time, being in the last five games, which were all within one score, and winning three of them.

Monday night saw another classic Tom Brady comeback, this time from a two-score deficit with five minutes remaining.

Brock Purdy came in for an injured Jimmy Garroppolo and made all the throws necessary to help San Francisco beat Miami last week. 2022’s Mr. Irrelevant makes his first career start in this game.

5. Tua vs Herbert on Sunday Night Football

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2020’s number five and six overall picks face off as Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert meet for the first time since their rookie year, where the Dolphins were victorious. 

Tua’s currently going through a career year, whilst Herbert is having a down year. Mike McDaniel’s faith in the quarterback, paired with a better offensive cast, especially Terron Armstead, has helped a potential bust turn his career around. 

All eyes will be on Justin Herbert who has to win this game to keep the Chargers in the playoff picture. A loss and their season is all but done. Can he put the team on his back and win?

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5 things to look out for in Week 10

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Two exciting primetime games and the first NFL game in Germany are standouts in Week 10

1. Germany becomes the fifth country to host a regular-season game

Bayern Munich’s Allianz Arena welcomes Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Seattle Seahawks to Munich for the first-ever regular season game to be hosted in Germany.

Unlike in the UK, football is the second most watched sport in Germany, so it makes you wonder how it took so long for the country to get a game.

Both teams were victorious in Week 9, the Bucs’ comeback may be the turning point needed to finish the year strong and win their division, whilst the Seahawks have won four straight. 

2. 7-1 meets 6-2 as the Vikings travel to the Bills

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Josh Allen looks to be good to go for the Buffalo Bills as they host the Minnesota Vikings, after Allen, one of the MVP favourites, sustained a UCL injury in his throwing elbow against the Jets last week.

Two of the NFL’s best receivers in Justin Jefferson and Stefon Diggs grace the same field in this game, two years after the 2020 first round pick (acquired by the trade with the Bills) replaced Diggs in Minnesota. 

TJ Hockenson had a big day on his Vikings debut last week, having arrived via trade the previous Tuesday, he played a big part in winning their sixth one-score game of the season.

3. Ryan Tannehill returns for the Tennessee Titans as they host the Broncos

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The Denver Broncos stopped a run of four straight losses with their win over Jacksonville at Wembley before their bye, a win on Sunday is crucial as they’re all but out of it if they lose to the Titans

Tennessee are in the fight for the one seed in the AFC, following Buffalo’s loss to the Jets, unfortunately for them, they just lost out in overtime to the Chiefs on SNF last week.

They’ve coped very well without Ryan Tannehill, whilst Derrick Henry looks back to his best, having only averaged three yards per carry at the start of the season. 

4. San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers in all-California clash on SNF

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Sunday Night Football sees two teams fighting for wildcard spots in their respective conferences, and potentially the division in the Niners’ case, battle it out.

Both the Chargers and 49ers are trending in the right direction, having both had a less-than-ideal start to this campaign, the latter noticed that, made a move, and their offense has been rolling since acquiring Christian McCaffrey.

San Francisco’s defense will be delighted with the fact that the Chargers’ offense is super banged up, with both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen joining the likes of Joey Bosa and Rashawn Slater on the sidelines. 

5. Can the Commanders end the Eagles’ hopes of an unbeaten season?

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Who would’ve thought that the Washington Commanders would be in the mix for the NFC wildcard spots having started 1-4!

The 4-5 Commanders have the chance to end Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles’ hope for a perfect season, on Monday Night Football.

Expect this one to be closer than you think because the last five Commanders games have ended in one score, being the winning side on three occasions. 

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NFL Halloween Special

We’re in Week 8 of the NFL season and it’s also Halloween weekend. So that feels as good a time as any to take stock and assess how everyone’s doing. Who’s scaring the living daylights out of the opposition? Who is spooking us out with their unexpected success? Who’s full of tricks and treats? For a bit of fun, I’m seeing which costume some of our favourite players and coaches should be dressing up in this weekend…

WEREWOLF – Carson Wentz

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On a normal Sunday afternoon, one particular quarterback is a mild-mannered individual and doesn’t really get – or deserve – much of our attention. But at night, under the bright lights of a primetime night game, he’s a man possessed, a beast howling at the full moon. And I’m talking about Washington’s Carson Wentz.

Wentz’s all-round stats are fairly middle of the road so far. After six games, he’s 18th in passing yards and 9th in touchdown passes, and he has thrown the fourth-most interceptions. But back in Week 6, on Thursday Night Football, the Commanders beat the Chicago Bears 12-7. As the score suggests, it was an absolute dog of a game and Wentz only mustered 12 of 22 for a measly 99 yards. However, don’t let that take away from the fact that the victory took Wentz’s record on TNF to 7-0: that’s the best Thursday night stats across any career in NFL history!

His previous six Ws all came while at Philadelphia, with whom he beat the Giants (x3), Jets, Panthers and Packers – averaging over 240 yards and boasting an impressive 15:2 touchdown to interception ratio. So Carson Wentz is the GOAT (of Thursday Night Football). Barking.

WIZARD – Joe Burrow

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The Cincinnati offense got off to a slow start this year, dropping to 0-2 with an all-new O-line that needed time to gel and a quarterback recovering from an urgent off-season appendectomy. But the 4-3 Bengals have taken four wins from the last five, and are now starting to look more like last year’s model than the less-impressive 2019 and 2020 editions.

The latest two-game spell, in which they scored 65 points against the Saints and Falcons, has seen Burrow in magical form, going 62 of 79 (78.4%) for 781 yards, six passing touchdowns and two rushing scores. Four of those passing TDs went for over 30 yards, with two going for 60.

Like a professor at Hogwarts, one flick of Burrow’s wand seems to make amazing things happen at the moment, so let’s see what sorcery he can provide against divisional rivals Cleveland on Monday’s Halloween Night special. He could conjure up another high-scoring win or it could all go up in a big cloud of smoke now that Ja’Marr Chase is out with a fractured hip.

ZOMBIE – Nathaniel Hackett

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Poor old Nathaniel. Everyone has such high hopes for Denver this year, with their high-octane attack being rounded out with the arrival of Seattle QB Russell Wilson in a blockbuster trade. But things have not gone well and, at the time of writing, there’s a real chance they could fall to 2-6 with a loss to the Jaguars at Wembley today.

Hackett is an offensively minded coach, having been an OC at Green Bay, Buffalo and today’s opponents Jacksonville, yet his offense has spluttered and fizzled. He’s taken stick for bad clock management (I wonder if he remembered to change his clocks last night) and his team rank dead last in points scored per game.

Broncos GM George Paton publicly gave his “100% support” a few days ago but more worryingly, CEO Greg Penner stopped short of guaranteeing the under-fire first-time HC will see the season out. Unless things turn round dramatically, Hackett feels like a dead man walking.

GHOST – Micah Parsons

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If you’re an opposing HC or OC, the last thing you want to see is Micah Parsons appearing out of nowhere to take your QB down. The Dallas Cowboy won Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2021 and earned First-Team All-Pro and Pro Bowl honors. His speed and strength helped him tally 13 sacks, 30 QB hits, 20 TFLs, three forced fumbles and three passes defended last years, and he’s already on pace to improve all those marks this year, with eight sacks, 14 QB hits, nine TFLs, two forced fumbles and two passes defended in just seven games. The guy’s a banshee.

His positional versality means that Parsons has a spooky habit of ghosting in undetected. This weekend, the interior linebacker goes in search of Bears rockslinger Justin Fields, the most-sacked QB in the league (27 in seven games). I have a feeling Fields will be haunted by Parsons all night.

DR FRANKENSTEIN – Brian Daboll

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There’s no doubt that Brian Daboll, the first-year Head Coach of the New York Giants, has had a monster start to the season. After the departures of GM Dave Gettleman and HC Joe Judge, it seemed like the former Bills OC was inheriting a bit of a mess. And yet he’s managed to take all the disparate components that were lying about and cobble them into a 6-1 team, their best start in 13 years. Other than Saquon Barkley, the cast is hardly stellar – Daniel Jones, Sterling Sheppard, Darius Slayton, Richie James, Daniel Bellinger – and yet he’s made the whole noticeably greater than the sum of its parts

Admittedly, he didn’t have to do much to be an improvement on Judge, but it appears his communication and relationship-building skills lie at the heart of the team’s transformation. Remember, this franchise went 4-13 last year, their fifth straight season with double-digit losses, and finished dead last in the NFC East.

With four 4th-quarter comebacks under his belt already, he’s definitely given this corpse of a franchise a jolt. No wonder he’s second favourite in the Coach of the Year stakes, just behind the (unbeaten) Eagles’ Nick Sirianni.

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5 things to look out for in Week 8

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Week 8 sees Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers meet on SNF, and the Jacksonville Jaguars return to London

1. Russell Wilson will start for the Broncos against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley

Denver Broncos QB Russell Wilson is good to go on Sunday in London, after missing last week’s home game against the New York Jets with a hamstring injury.

Both the Broncos and the Jaguars are 2-5 but aren’t out of the playoff hunt just yet, one win may be the catapult needed to make a late push.

The Wilson-less Broncos were second-best in Sunday’s loss, whilst Jacksonville fell short in a close game at home to the Giants.

2. The New York Jets – New England Patriots rivalry is back!

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For the first time in years, the Jets-Patriots rivalry is meaningful, 2022 is the first time since 2001 that the Jets have had more wins than their rivals over in Boston at this point in the season.

New England has got a QB competition on its hands after Bailey Zappe’s impressive play whilst Mac Jones was injured, the latter is expected to start again, but don’t be surprised to see the former when things are going south, like on Monday night.

All signs are pointing towards a tight, low-scoring affair, exactly as the in-form Jets like it, their defense has been one of the best in the league so far this season.

3. Reigning Super Bowl Champions looking to get right against a division rival

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Sean McVay’s Los Angeles Rams come back from their bye at 3-3 but are in desperate need of a win against the 49ers if they want to be crowned NFC West champions, for the second season running.

The 49ers currently hold the tie-breaker over the Rams having already beaten them this season back in Week 4, if they drop another loss in this one it may come back to bite them in a tight division race.

Kyle Shanahan has beaten McVay’s Rams in eight of the twelve meetings since both became head coaches in 2017, last year the Rams were swept by the Niners, but won in the NFC Championship game.

4. Will Geno continue his outstanding season against the 6-1 Giants?

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Every single New York Giants game has finished within one score this year, expect that to continue as they visit the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday.

Both Geno Smith (SEA), and Daniel Jones (NYG), have been impressive so far this season, especially when helped out by both teams’ efficient rushing attacks, being two of the best teams to watch in the NFC.

Two top 10 picks in the 2022 NFL Draft will collide in this game as Kayvon Thibodeaux and Charles Cross battle in the trenches.

5. Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers meet on SNF

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Sunday Night Football sees the 3-4 Green Bay Packers travel to Orchard Park to play the 5-1 Buffalo Bills.

It’s not looking pretty in Green Bay now that the Packers have lost three straight for the first time since 2018.

Buffalo are fresh and were on a three-game win streak before their bye, the most impressive victory was their last, beating the Chiefs at Arrowhead.

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5 things to look out for in Week 7

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Tua Tagovailoa’s return to action on SNF against his former Head Coach Brian Flores is the highlight of Week 7

1. Will the Baltimore Ravens throw away another game in the fourth quarter?

Baltimore has now lost three close games in the fourth quarter, with last week’s collapse against the Giants with the ball in Lamar Jackson’s hands perhaps being the worst.

They’ve got a big chance to get right when they welcome the 2-5 Cleveland Browns on Sunday, a team who are fighting to stay alive in the race for the AFC North

One thing we do know is it’ll be tight, all of the Ravens home games have been decided by three points or less this year, with them only being victorious once.

2. In form Colts in need of a win as they face off with the Tennessee Titans in key AFC South duel.

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The Indianapolis Colts are welcomed by the Titans for the second of their two annual matchups, this one may well decide the AFC South.

Tennessee got out to an early lead in their Week 4 fixture, managing to hold on for a 24-17 victory after a late Indy comeback, meaning the Colts need to respond to prevent Mike Vrabel’s team from having a tiebreaker.

Matt Ryan had one hell of a game against Jacksonville last week, his Colts offense are now starting to find a groove but a loss here would put them at a real disadvantage of winning the division.

3. Russell Wilson out with a hamstring injury, Brett Rypien will start against the New York Jets

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Nathaniel Hackett’s Denver Broncos’ start to the season is getting worse by the day, as Russell Wilson is now set to miss Sunday’s game at home to the Jets with the hamstring injury he sustained on MNF.

The two top defenses are the stars of the show, as both the Broncos and the Jets defenses are within the top 10 of the league according to PFF (Denver 5th, New York 8th.)

Robert Saleh’s Jets are one of the hottest teams in football right now after back to back wins over the Dolphins and Packers.

4. CMC returns to Southern California as a San Fransisco 49er

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Christian McCaffrey should suit up for his first game in gold and red after he was acquired via a trade from the Carolina Panthers on Thursday night, he’ll be a big boost for a 49ers team that looked off the pace in Atlanta last week.

A second, third, and a fourth round pick is a steep price for the ex-Stanford running back who can’t stay on the field, but if he can stay healthy he’s a real asset and may be the piece San Francisco need to win a championship.

Their opponents, the Kansas City Chiefs, are on the back of a tight loss to Buffalo at Arrowhead where their defense did well to limit Josh Allen and co to only 24 points.

5. Flores and Tua meet again as the Miami Dolphins host the Pittsburgh Steelers on SNF

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Tua Tagovailoa makes his return to the football field for the first time since he left the game in Cincinnati with a horrific concussion, since then his Dolphins have moved from 3-0 to 3-3.

The third year quarterback has his former head coach Brian Flores on the opposite sideline, it’s not secret that they didn’t get on so he’ll be out for revenge.

Mike Tomlin and Flores’ defense stepped up in their win over Tampa Bay on Sunday, the Pittsburgh defensive line against the Miami offensive line should be a great battle, especially with Terron Armstead looking good to go.