Category: Washington Commanders

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2024 NFL Draft: Official Two-Round Mock Draft

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It’s draft day!

To celebrate, it’s time to release my two-round mock draft. So without much further ado, let’s get into the picks.

  1. Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams, QB, USC
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The obvious, home run pick at the top of the draft, everyone knows it’s going to happen, let’s move on!

  1. Washington Commanders – Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
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Many people (including myself) have Drake Maye as QB2 in this draft class, Jayden Daniels seems like the better fit for the system the Washington Commanders will run under offensive coordinator, Kilff Kingsbury. The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner is a good deep passer and a dynamic runner who will be able to extend plays and work better out of the structure of the offence than Maye would, in the immediate term. With Marcus Mariota also on the roster it makes sense to learn off of a veteran with a similar skillset before starting games later in the year as well.

  1. Minnesota Vikings (Via NE) – Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina 
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Trade: NE receives – No. 11, 23 and 2025 1st round pick, MIN receives – no. 3

The first projected trade of this mock draft sees Minnesota package their two first-rounders (received pick 23 in a trade with the Houston Texans), and a 2025 first-round pick to move up and select Drake Maye. Minnesota is a perfect match with Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings team and he doesn’t have to play at all in the first year, being able to sit behind veteran Sam Darnold, who was signed in free agency. As for the Patriots, they have so many needs and won’t be competitive in the AFC East for a while, so the quarterback problem can perhaps be pushed back another year or two knowing you’ll probably be back here again picking high in the draft. 

  1. Arizona Cardinals – Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
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Arizona has been my favourite trade partner since Minnesota made the trade for pick 23 and by proxy preparing to trade into the top four. Since reading Adam Schefter’s piece earlier in the week, I’ve been more inclined to think the Patriots will be that trade partner, so in this scenario, the Cardinals get Kyler Murray a true X-receiver, who has the most all-round polished game in this wide receiver class. 

  1. LA Chargers – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
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Malik Nabers is a dynamic playmaker who can make things happen after the catch. All signs point to the Chargers’ offence being run-heavy under Jim Harbaugh, Justin Herbert will need a dynamic yards-after-catch receiver that will operate well on play action, Nabers is that guy.  

  1. New York Giants – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington 
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Some people prefer Rome Odunze to Nabers due to his size and play style matching up better to that of a true NFL-calibre X-receiver. Odunze is a physical receiver who will be competitive at the catch-point, and the Giants are desperately calling out for receiver help. 

  1. Tennessee Titans – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
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Tennessee have a huge need at offensive tackle and Joe Alt possesses all the traits to be able to play as an NFL starter on day one in Nashville. Alt is the best tackle in the draft class and the Titans have a huge need at either end of their offensive line, it’s a match made in heaven. 

  1. New York Jets (Via ATL)  – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
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Trade: ATL receives – No. 10 + 5th round pick, NYJ receives – No. 8

The Falcons are the biggest early players for the first defensive player off the board, and the Jets seem desperate for an offensive playmaker. I like a tackle to the Jets as well looking long term but Brock Bowers is a special tight end talent and the Jets just give Aaron Rodgers another pass catcher. 

  1. Las Vegas Raiders (Via CHI) – J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan 
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Trade: CHI receives – No. 13 + 3rd round pick, LV receives No. 9

In previous mock drafts that I’ve done I didn’t have McCarthy dropping out of the top five, and if the Patriots go quarterback at third overall then I very much doubt he’ll get past five with the Vikings trading up, but in this scenario, he slides a long way and the Raiders snatch their guy with a little trade up. As for the Bears, with only four picks in the draft overall this has to be a trade-down spot. 

  1. Atlanta Falcons (via NYJ)- Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
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10 picks in and we finally see a defensive player go off the board in Alabama’s cornerback Terrion Arnold. Conversations about whether Quinyon Mitchell or Arnold is the best cornerback in this draft are fair but in this scenario, the Falcons go with the Alabama corner over the Toldeo one. 

  1. New England Patriots (via MIN) – J.C. Latham, OT, Alabama 
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Daniel Jeremiah had Latham as the first tackle off the board at fifth overall in his final mock draft, which says all you need to know about how highly people rate Latham in this class. The Patriots need a long-term answer at tackle and Latham can comfortably be that answer.

  1. New Orleans Saints (Via DEN) – Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
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Trade: DEN receives – No. 14 + fifth-round pick, NO receives No. 12

The Saints need a tackle with Ryan Ramcyzk suffering from a knee injury, late in his career and Trevor Penning not panning out how they’d have hoped. Olu Fashanu is a really talented tackle who is rough around the edges, with the right coaching he can be an NFL starter on the left side of this offensive line for years to come.

  1. Chicago Bears (via LV)- Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama
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Dallas Turner is the best defensive player in this class and the Bears would surely sprint this card to the podium if the board fell this way, especially after trading back. The Montez Sweat trade last season gave the Bears some presence in the front seven but Turner gives them a truly talented edge rusher who can disrupt opposing offences from day one.

  1. Philadelphia Eagles (Via DEN) – Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
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Trade: DEN receives No. 22, No. 53, PHI receives No. 14

The Eagles really need a cornerback and Howie Roseman has been rumoured to be looking to move up, while Denver needs early day two picks and their major need will be available later in the first round. Mitchell’s Senior Bowl put him on the map out of Toledo and he could bring some seriously dynamic youthfulness to this Eagles secondary. 

  1. Indianapolis Colts – Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
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Wiggins is, for me, the best cornerback after Arnold and Mitchell at “1a/1b”, and he fits a need for the Colts who look light at quality in their secondary. They may look at a receiver here or even a trade-back, but for me, the need is just too pressing to pass on.

  1. Seattle Seahawks – Troy Fautanu, OT/G, Washington 
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The Seahawks are another trade-down candidate for sure, but I have them keeping Troy Fautanu in state here. Fautanu is a great athlete and I can see them playing him as a guard this year to replace Damien Lewis who left in free agency.

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jared Verse, Edge, FSU
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Verse may not fall this far, but edge isn’t a priority need for many of the teams ahead of the Jaguars at 17. They may go cornerback in Duval County, and might even have to trade up to make that happen, but a good edge rusher would also be of great usage to the Jaguars across from Josh Allen who recently got paid.

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers (Via CIN) – Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
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Trade: CIN receives – No. 20 + sixth round pick, PIT receives No. 18

In previous mock drafts, I’ve done, I had Fuaga going at 10th overall to the Jets with an eye to their long-term need at the position and his incredible talent in the run game. It’s that talent in the run game that I think will get the attention of the Steelers’ front office and they trade ahead of the Rams and swap with the Bengals who both look like tackle-needy teams.  

  1. LA Rams – Byron Murphy, DT, Texas 
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Kobie Turner proved to be another mid-round steal from the Rams in last year’s draft and he needs help on the defensive line after Aaron Donald’s retirement. Byron Murphy can be a game-wrecker on the interior defensive line on passing and rushing downs. 

  1. Cincinatti Bengals (via PIT) – Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia 
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The Bengals will be annoyed that Bowers didn’t fall to a range they could trade up into and then as it is they settle for a trade down here. It could be a risk with the Rams needing a tackle at 19 but Mims has incredible potential that is worth taking that risk on. With only eight career starts in college Mims isn’t going to be a day-one starter but he will be a pick that comes with heaps of potential.

  1. Miami Dolphins – Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA 
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Latu has incredible talent he just falls because of his medical history which is a similar case to Jaelan Phillips a few years ago. In this mock, he ends up across the line from Phillips and the Dolphins will hope taking a gamble again can pay off like it has with Phillips.

  1. Denver Broncos (via PHI) – Bo Nix, QB, Oregon 
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This is the dream scenario for the Broncos, who trade back twice and accumulate a lot of day-two pickles to bolster a bad roster while also adding a quarterback who they’ve put a lot of time and study into. The Zach Wilson trade doesn’t change the thinking here, the Broncos have to take a quarterback and let Sean Payton build a team around him.

  1. New England Patriots (via MIN) – Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
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Brian Thomas is the best of the rest in this receiver class and his freak athleticism alongside his incredible touchdown production at LSU is hard to ignore. He could definitely go earlier than this, as high as the high-teens I’d have thought but the Patriots would love to add a true outside receiver to this roster, which currently lists slot-receiver KJ Osborn as wide receiver one. 

  1. Dallas Cowboys – Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
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Dallas have a lot of holes, particularly in the medium term and wide receiver may not be the biggest need assuming they will pay star receiver CeeDee Lamb, but Adonai Mitchell could pair with Lamb to make an excellent receiver duo.

  1. Green Bay Packers – Graham Barton, G, Duke 
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Graham Barton could go a lot higher than this, but the Packers won’t be complaining if they can take him here and play him at guard from day one. The Duke man can play anywhere across the offensive line and plays with immense grit, drive and power, I have no doubt he’d fit perfectly in Green Bay.

  1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon 
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The second top interior offensive line talent, Power-Johnson will go straight into the interior of the Buccaneers’ offensive line and bolster the pass protection for Baker Mayfield. 

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (Via AZ) – Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
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Trade: AZ receives – No. 32 + sixth round pick, KC receives No. 27

The Chiefs need receiver help, everyone knows it and with a class so deep at receiver, you’ll need to be brave and aggressive to get your guy, which the Chiefs do at this spot, moving up ahead of the Bills and 49ers to get a playmaker who could be a real nuisance with his route running in Kansas City.

  1. Buffalo Bills – Keon Coleman, WR, FSU 
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Josh Allen needs a big receiver to whom he can throw jump balls to and I have no doubt, Keon Coleman can come straight into this Buffalo offence and make a difference after the Stefon Diggs trade. 

  1. Detroit Lions – Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa 
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DeJean only slides because there are certain questions about where DeJean projects at the pro level, similar, to how Brian Branch fell last year. Coincidentally, it is the Lions who take DeJean as they did with Branch, but unlike Branch being a nickel/safety, I think DeJean can be a true cornerback on the outside.

  1. Baltimore Ravens – Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma 
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The Ravens really badly need a tackle and Tyler Guyton, is a more developmental tackle but the need is so big and there aren’t any elite talents here at other positions of need for that to put the Ravens off.

  1. San Fransisco 49ers – Jordan Morgan, OT/G, Arizona
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Jordan Morgan can slide straight into the interior of the 49ers’ offensive line, while he learns the trade of tackle behind a 38-year-old Trent Williams where he may be projected more, long-term. 

  1. Arizona Cardinals (via KC) – Johnny Newton, IDL, Illinois 
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This is the dream for Arizona, trading back from 27 and still getting a potential game-changer on the interior defensive line, in Johnny Newton from Illinois, who would have been the pick at 27. His size profile lets him down slightly but the play performance gets him in as a first-round pick from me.

Round 2 

  1. Washington Commanders (via CAR) – Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State (Trade: CAR receives – No. 33, WAS receives – No. 36)
  2. New England Patriots – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama 
  3. Arizona Cardinals – Darius Robinson, Edge, Missouri  
  4. Carolina Panthers (via WAS) – Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas 
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Trading back and still getting a true playmaker who can change the dynamic of your offence can’t ever be a bad thing, and it definitely isn’t if you’re the Panthers getting the 40-yard dash record holder in Xavier Worthy.

  1. LA Chargers – Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan 
  2. Tennessee Titans – Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU 
  3. Carolina Panthers – Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri
  4. Washington Commanders – Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, Washington 
  5. Green Bay Packers – Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M 
  6. Houston Texans – Braden Fiske, DL, FSU 
  7. New York Giants (Via ATL) – Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
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Trade: ATL receives – 47 + sixth-round pick, NYG receives – 43

Penix has first-round pick potential after his game vs Texas at the end of last season, but the injury history and breadth of accuracy errors on tape earlier in the season all factor into this fall. Seeing him fall this far though kicks the Giants into gear and they select him with the option of getting out of Daniel Jones’ contract next year if they want to take it. 

  1. Las Vegas Raiders – Malachi Corley, WR, Western Kentucky
  2. New Orleans Saints – Chris Braswell, Edge, Alabama 
  3. Indianapolis Colts – Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida 
  4. Atlanta Falcons (via NYG) – Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina  
  5. Jacksonville Jaguars – Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon 
  6. Cincinnati Bengals – Michael Hall Jr., DL, Ohio State 
  7. Philadelphia Eagles – Zach Frazier, IOL, West Virginia 
  8. Pittsburgh Steelers – Cooper Beede, IOL, Kansas State
  9. LA Rams – Marshawn Kneeland, Edge, Western Michigan 
  10. Denver Broncos (via PHI) – Junior Colson, LB, Michigan 
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Colson has great talent and is my favourite interior linebacker in this class, he plays with aggression and a lot of athleticism, and the Broncos have a serious need at Mike linebacker, so they use their second-round pick they get from Philadelphia in the trade-up to 14 in the first round to fix that need.

  1. Cleveland Browns – Kris Jenkins, DL, Michigan 
  2. Miami Dolphins – Christian Haynes, G, UConn 
  3. Dallas Cowboys – Jonathon Brooks, RB, Texas
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – T.J. Tampa, CB, Iowa State 
  5. Green Bay Packers – Tyler Nubin, S, Minnesota 
  6. Kansas City Chiefs (Via HOU) – Blake Corum, RB, Michigan (HOU receives No. 64 + seventh-round pick, KC receives No.59)
  7. Buffalo Bills – Andru Phillips, CB, Kentucky 
  8. Detroit Lions – Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan 
  9. Baltimore Ravens – Javon Bullard, S, Georgia 
  10. San Fransisco 49ers – Ruke Orhorhoro, DL, Clemson 
  11. Houston Texans (via KC) – Trey Benson, RB, FSU
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A tribute to… the fake punt

In the grand theatre that is American football, few tactics exemplify the art of deception quite like the fake punt. The sneaky trick play dates back to the early days of the National Football League and has shaped countless games, leaving an indelible mark on the sport’s landscape. In this, the second article in our series honouring the game’s rarer plays, we delve into the strategies behind the fake punt and relive some of the great examples from days gone by.

How it all began

While the rules of the sport do not explicitly mention the option to fake a punt attempt, teams have been doing so since the formative days of the league, when coaches and players began experimenting with unconventional ways to try to gain an edge on the field. At its core, the move is designed to deceive the opposing team by lining up in punt formation but executing an alternative play, such as a run or pass, that they aren’t set up to defend.

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The first documented instance of a fake punt in the NFL occurred on 6 November 1932, by the Chicago Bears against the Green Bay Packers at Wrigley Field. Trailing by a point late in the fourth quarter, the Bears needed a big play to turn the tide in their favour and decided to fake a punt. Their legendary quarterback, Bronko Nagurski, received the snap instead of punter Johnny Sisk, faked a punt attempt himself before running with the ball. Catching the Packers off guard, Nagurski secured a pivotal first down that ultimately led to the game-winning touchdown.

The options

That landmark play, almost a century ago, demonstrated the potential impact of having bare-faced deception in the playbook and set the stage for others to follow. As the fake punt gained traction across the league, it became clear that different categories of trickery, each with its own unique approach and execution, were available. These can be loosely classified as follows:

  • The run: In this classic variation, more often used in short yardage situations, the punter receives the snap and runs with the ball. This relies on blockers to help the (usually smaller, lighter) ball-carrier evade defenders.
  • The pass: This more daring approach sees the punter make a downfield throw, targeting an uncovered receiver for a potentially big gain.
  • The direct snap: Bypassing the punter altogether, this variation involves the ball being snapped directly to a running back or quarterback (as in Nagurski’s case), who then executes a predetermined running or passing play.
  • The reverse: Adding another layer of complexity, the reverse fake punt sees the punter hand the ball off to a player executing a reverse run or pass, exploiting the defense’s pursuit of the punter.

DEEP FAKE: During the Cleveland Browns’ game against the Saints in October 2010, punter Reggie Hodges took a snap, bolted through the line of scrimmage and ran it 68 yards to the Saints’ 10-yard line. It’s still the longest run by a punter in NFL history.

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Legendary moments of fake puntory

Through the years, fake punts have etched themselves into the annals of NFL history, captivating audiences with their audacity and execution. Even in the last decade or so, there have been some memorable examples of the passing variety and many illustrate the point that punters don’t have to be particularly good at throwing if the play is enough of a surprise. 

Eight years ago, in 2016, kicker Pat McAfee threw a 35-yard pass on a fake punt for the Indianapolis Colts against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Facing a 4th-and-6 from midfield, McAfee took the snap, crept a few steps to his right and threw a pass to tight end Erik Swoope, who was eventually brought down inside the 10.   

In Week 4 of the 2017 season, the Jacksonville Jaguars literally didn’t defend the New York Jets receiver and punter Lac Edwards just about made the pass on a huge 4th-and-21. Also in 2017, during a Monday night clash with divisional rivals the Minnesota Vikings, Bears punter Pat O’Donnell completed a 38-yard TD pass to Benny Cunningham, who beat two defenders in the open field to score. By his own admission, O’Donnell had never thrown a pass before – not in college or even little league – and while his slow, lofted pass won’t win prizes for style, it still went for seven points.

A year later, the Tennessee Titans notched an impressive 66-yard TD on a fake punt against the Houston Texans. With the game just five minutes old and still scoreless, the long snap bypassed the punter in favour of safety Kevin Byard, lurking in the backfield. He noticed that the gunner on his right, rookie safety Dane Cruikshank, was unguarded and that was all he needed. Cruikshank was so open, he could afford to slow down to catch the ball before speeding past punt returner Bruce Ellington for the score in just his second game as a pro.

Only last year, Ryan Wright of the Vikings suddenly got licence to throw a ball instead of punting – with mixed success. In Week 15, the Vikings tried some sneakiness against the Colts on a fourth down but it went south. Wright lined up, looking to all intents and purposes like he was about to boot the ball away, but instead threw a pass towards Jalen Nailor on the left sideline. Alas, it was an ugly effort that sailed over his intended target’s head, leading to a turnover on downs. However, the two did connect when Minnesota played the New Orleans Saints in London earlier in the season. Leading 16-14 late in the third quarter, they faced a 4th-and-2 from just inside their own half. Wright took the snap, immediately turned to his right and threw a 13-yard pass that just about had the legs to reach Nailor for his first-ever NFL catch.

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Turning our attention to run plays, this fake punt from December 2021 went 73 yards – but it wasn’t the punter running this time. After seemingly going three-and-out on their opening possession against the San Francisco 49ers, the Seattle Seahawks snapped the ball directly to running back Travis Homer. He raced 73 yards to the end zone to give Seattle a 7-0 lead. This is the longest run on fourth down in the past 25 years, according to ESPN Stats & Information research, and Homer was actually listed as questionable because of a calf injury so extra kudos to him!

WORTH A GO: Historically, fake punt passes on 4th-and-7 or shorter have at least a conversion rate of at least 50%.

Fakes that failed

As much as it’s fun to celebrate every successful fake punt, it’s counterbalanced by many a cautionary tale of failure and miscalculation. There are far too many to recount of failed fakes but here are just a couple.

In the 2020 season, the NFC East (nicknamed the ‘NFC Least’ at the time due to the ineptitude of all four teams) was won, almost by default, by a Washington team with a 7-9 record. Summing up the division that year, the 6-10 Cowboys managed this epic fail on a reverse against the then-Redskins, barely making it back to the line of scrimmage, deep in their own territory. Mike McCarthy, hang your head in shame for calling this one.

And only this season, we saw the Buffalo Bills tried to pull a fast one on their AFC rivals, the Kansas City Chiefs, but again failed to convert. Down 27-24 early in the fourth quarter, Bills HC Sean McDermott decided to get aggressive on a 4th-and-5 on their own 30 yard-line, obviously hoping that the field position would suggest conservatism rather than recklessness to his opposite number, Andy Reid. Damar Hamlin took the direct snap from the long snapper, and the offensive line shifted to the left to clear a path. However, the KC defense stopped Hamlin after a gain of two.

The king of fakes: Johnny Hekker

Several names have become synonymous with the art of the fake punt. Back in 1960, when some players still had multiple roles – as both quarterback and punter, for example – the Eagles’ Norm Van Brocklin was second in passer rating and fifth in punting average as he led Philadelphia to an NFL championship. Meanwhile, Dallas’ Danny White threw for three scores and averaged 44.5 yards a punt against the Rams in a 1980 playoff game. 

But in the modern era, no one can hold a candle to Johnny Hekker. The former LA Ram punter was named first-team All-Pro four times and holds the single-season record for net punting average. In 2016, he had the greatest punting season in NFL history, landing 51 punts inside the opposing 20-yard line with just one touchback. But as good as he is at punting, he’s in a league of his own at ‘not punting’.

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Most teams run fake punts once in a blue moon. In 2019, the Ringer stated that combined, the 31 teams other than the Rams attempt about five fake-punt passes a season and convert three. Hekker alone has averaged 2.4 passes per season since 2012, has yet to go a year without at least attempting a pass and has only had one season (2013) without a completion.

In Hekker’s rookie season (2012), all three of his throws went to wide-open players. His first came from inside his own end zone, when the Niners clearly weren’t expecting a pass and failed to defend a Rams’ gunner. His second came in the same game, on what might have been the first run-pass option called for a punter and his third came on a fake field goal attempt (more on them later), during which the Rams pretended to sub wide receiver Danny Amendola out of the game. Instead, he hugged the sideline without a defender anywhere near him, leaving Hekker with a throw that, well, any punter could have made.

“Deep down inside, all punters want to throw,” Rams special teams coach John Fassel said of Hekker, “and he’d much rather throw than punt.” Hekker himself admits, “I’ve got a good release… for a punter.” And the secret to his success? Hekker led his high school team to the Washingston state championship game as a QB.

Hekker has now played 10 NFL seasons – nine with the St Louis/Los Angeles Rams and one with the Carolina Panthers, and is now 15-of-24 (62.5%) for 193 yards – with a long of 28 – with 1 TD and 1 INT as a passer. (He also completed a pass on a two-point conversion but that doesn’t count towards his official statistics.) The guy is undoubtedly the league’s fakiest punter.

Dan, Dan, the diaper man

Switching from the field to the sidelines, current Detroit head coach Dan Campbell is definitely not afraid to call a high-risk, high-reward play. He even stated that Detroit fans should “wear a diaper” because he likes to take risks, specifically on fourth downs. Just last season, in the third quarter against the Packers in November 2023, the Lions attempted a fake punt on a 4th-and-4 from their own 23-yard line. From the moment the ball was snapped, the play never stood a chance. Linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin was stopped for no gain and the Packers scored three plays later, going on to win 29-22. To his credit, Campbell held his hands up. “Yeah, look. That’s a bad call on me,” he said postgame. “I shouldn’t have done that to those guys. That’s a bad call.” 

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But that failure was the exception. Under Campbell, the Lions have converted eight of their 10 fake punt attempts, a stunningly high success rate. Props should also go to special teams coordinator Dave Fipp, who echoes Campbell’s gung-ho style and has helped to turn the Lions’ special teams into one of the league’s best units. In 2021, the Lions converted three of four fake punt attempts, with CJ Moore running for 28 yards on a direct snap against the Rams and punter Jack Fox completing two throws. Last season, Fox completed another pass, Moore ran for two more first downs and Reeves-Maybin rumbled for 3 yards on a 4th-and-2 from his own 17-yard line. Like with Hekker, the element of surprise is long gone with Campbell’s reputation for ballsy play-calling but nonetheless, he still seems to succeed more often than not.

Don’t forget the fake field goal

Before we finish, we must talk about fake field goals. Again, there are a number of different permutations. Usually the holder (often the punter or backup quarterback) will take the snap but rather than place the ball on the ground to be kicked, he’ll throw a pass or run with it.

Less frequently, the kicker, takes a direct snap and serves as the passer or rusher. Former Patriots kicker Adam Vinatieri received a direct snap and threw a touchdown pass to Troy Brown during a game in 2004 and the Seahawks used this play in the 2014 NFC Championship game against the Packers. The box score would have revealed the weirdest touchdown pass description (holder/punter Jon Ryan to eligible offensive lineman Garry Gilliam) as Seattle recovered from a 16-point deficit on their way to Super Bowl XLIX.

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A legacy of innovation and intrigue

Reflecting on the history and evolution of fake kicks, one thing is clear: it’s not just a tactical manoeuvre. Indeed, it’s a testament to the creativity, daring and strategic brilliance of the players and coaches that have shaped the evolution of the game. The fake punt and field goal continue to illicit a knowing nod or even a hysterical squeal, given their potential for glory or disaster. But as the league continues to evolve, you can only imagine the new twists and turns that will define deception and trickery in years to come…

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A tribute to… the Hail Mary

While the rules of American football do not explicitly mention the Hail Mary pass, it remains a thrilling aspect of the game. There’s little else that evokes the same anticipation, or suggests the same desperation, as these all-or-nothing, everything-on-the-line moments. In this first in an occasional series of off-season articles about some of the game’s much-loved but rarer plays, Sean Tyler explores the history of the Hail Mary in the NFL, outlines the tactics and techniques behind it, and revisits some of the greatest Hail Marys from years gone by.

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How it all began

Because it’s not part of the game’s official lexicon, the term wasn’t coined by a coach, owner or even a commentator. In footballing terms, the expression dates back to October 1922, when players from Notre Dame (a Catholic university) twice said a prayer in the huddle before plays against Georgia Tech – and scored touchdowns in both instances.

As for the NFL, the first recorded reference came several decades later from Roger Staubach, the Dallas Cowboys quarterback. In a divisional playoff game against the Minnesota Vikings in December 1975, with just 32 seconds on the clock and Dallas trailing by four, legendary Head Coach Tom Landry called for a long pass and Staubach launched one from the halfway line. The slightly underthrown ball was tipped by receiver Drew Pearson five yards shy of the paint but he somehow trapped it between his arm and hip before taking it in for the winning score. Afterwards, Landry said “Our only hope was to throw it and hope for a miracle,” while Staubach – a devout Catholic – told reporters, “I just closed my eyes and said a Hail Mary.” The term appeared in several newspaper headlines the following day and has been part of NFL folklore ever since.

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Mindset and mechanics

The prayer in question (“Hail Mary, full of grace, the Lord is with thee…”) eludes to summoning help from the powers that be to successfully make a long, low-probability, chuck-it-and-hope throw. Usually attempted when a team is too far from the end zone to try something more conventional, the term implies that it would take a miracle for the play to succeed – which is why we love it when it does. That success relies on several factors coming together in the perfect storm: the strength and technique of the quarterback, whether there’s enough time for the receiver(s) to get downfield, whether the opposing team can defend it and, in most cases, a massive slice of good fortune.

So how do you shift the odds in your favour? Well, according to Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, you practice. During his three years as an understudy to Brett Favre, he performed countless reps. “I got used to what it felt like, height and distance wise,” he told ESPN in a great article in 2019. “I’ve always been a little nerdy about that – watching the ball, seeing where it would land, remembering what that throw felt like. Was it all out? Was it 90 percent? Was it 80 percent? And just kind of locking those things away.”

As for Vikings QB Kirk Cousins, who has both a college and an NFL Hail Mary to his name, time is also crucial. “Can you find time in the pocket or can you escape the pocket and step up? By the time you run around a little bit, the receiver is in the end zone where you want them. It helps if you can buy as much time as possible, let the receivers get underneath the ball as it comes down.” And the numbers bear that out. According to ESPN tracking, the average time before a Hail Mary is thrown is 4.75 seconds – almost twice as long as a normal play.

So what about trajectory? The throw must go high and far enough to reach the end zone but not go out of the back – that’s quite a tight window if you’re 50 yards or more away. Quarterbacks tend to pull their arms farther back than normal and Cousins tilts his shoulders, with the front shoulder up and back shoulder down. “That will put the arc on it,” he confirms. “You want the ball coming down at the receivers. You don’t want a driven ball.”

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A RARE TREAT: Due to the degree of difficulty, most attempts aren’t completed. In fact, there have only been 34 successful Hail Marys in the professional game since Staubach’s effort nearly 50 years ago.

All hail King Rodgers

While the Hail Mary is often seen as a last-ditch effort, some players have developed a reputation for launching long, accurate passes in clutch moments. Since Staubach, there have been several successful proponents of the Hail Mary. And where better to start than with the best of the best, Aaron Rodgers, who (thanks to all that practice) is the only quarterback with three successful NFL Hail Marys to his name.

One of the most famous of all time, christened the ‘Miracle in Motown’ by broadcaster Jim Nantz, came on the final play of a Thursday night game in December 2015 against the Packers’ NFC North rivals, the Detroit Lions. Because of a face mask penalty on the previous play, Green Bay – who’d been trailing most of the game – were given an extra play with no time on the clock. After the snap, Rodgers broke left to buy time while his receivers rushed downfield. Then he scrambled to the right to evade pressure and hurled a howitzer from his own 35-yard line. It dropped inside the end zone, where it was caught by the 6’4” Richard Rodgers II in front of a gaggle of Detroit players. (The tight end also caught a 67-yarder from Carson Wentz as a Philadelphia Eagle in 2020.)

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The Rodgers-to-Rodgers connection, which brought a dramatic 27-23 victory, is still the longest Hail Mary touchdown in NFL history. According to estimations at the time, the ball travelled 69 yards and almost hit the rafters at Ford Field. Breaking it down afterwards, then-HC Mike McCarthy said: “When you throw it with that arc, it gives guys a chance to fight for position. And Richard is the perfect guy for that type of situation, with his ability to go up and high-point the football.”

Having won the NFL Play of the Year Award for the 2015 season for that one, Rodgers threw another just weeks later. This time, Green Bay were facing the Arizona Cardinals in the 2015 NFC Divisional Playoff game. Down by seven and with seconds remaining, Rodgers heaved another desperation pass into the end zone while Marcus Golden and others rushed to close him down. This time, the ball was caught by receiver Jeff Janis and the 41-yard reception sent the game into overtime (although the Cardinals ultimately prevailed).

Rodgers, the unofficial yet undisputed ‘King of the Hail Mary’, then uncorked a third the following year – again in the postseason. In the NFC Wild Card Game against the New York Giants, he let it fly from the 53-yard-line with the last play of the first half and Randall Cobb took the catch at the back of the end zone. Rodgers’ three career Hail Marys, which came during a span of just 13 months, travelled a combined 172 yards.

Talking on Pat McAfee’s show years later, Rodgers raised another interesting factor: the inability of defensive players to read the flight of the ball. “I think it just comes down to the way you throw it,” he said. “If you take out the Jeff Janis one, the other two I was trying to get to a clean spot and throw it as high as possible. On both of those, I think there was a misjudgement by a majority of the players as to where the ball was going to come down.”

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A LONG SHOT… IN EVERY SENSE OF THE WORD: According to ESPN Stats and Information, only 9.7% of the 193 attempts from 2009 to 2019 were completed.

Double trouble: Dalton and Couch

Looking back through the annals of NFL history, there have been several other notable exponents of the Hail Mary. In particular, a couple of QBs from the AFC North have managed the feat twice (as has Russell Wilson, and we’ll come to him shortly).

In a 2013 battle with the Cincinnati Bengals, the Baltimore Ravens were leading 17-10 when, on the last play, Cincy’s Andy Dalton launched a 51-yard lob to the end zone on a 4th-and-15. The ball was deflected twice, once by each team, and while everyone else fell to the deck, the ball fell to AJ Green for a touchdown that forced overtime. The same pair teamed up three years later against the Browns, when the Red Rifle found Green with a 52-yard moonshot with seconds left in the first half. Again, there was some juggling and bobbling before Green pulled it into his chest for a 31-17 Bengals win.

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Staying in the division, in October 1999, the Cleveland Browns secured their first win as a returning expansion team with a Hail Mary against the New Orleans Saints. Quarterback Tim Couch avoided the pass rush and launched a 56-yard bomb that was tipped, then caught, by receiver Kevin Johnson. Three years later, Couch repeated the feat against the Jacksonville Jaguars, when his 50-yarder to a tightly covered Quincy Morgan (and the ensuing extra point) secured a 21-20 win. Couch remains the only player to win two NFL games on game-ending Hail Marys.

Before we move on from the Browns, we ought to mention another so-called ‘miracle’: The Miracle at the Met. This refers to Cleveland’s epic game at the Vikings’ old Metropolitan Stadium in December 1980, in which Minnesota came back from a 23-9 deficit to snatch victory in the last five minutes. The Vikes closed to within a point and, after forcing the Browns to punt, were left with 14 seconds, with the ball at their own 20. A crafty lateral pass (more of them another time) set up a 39-yard gain, leaving 41 yards still to go and just five seconds on the clock. NBC broadcaster Len Dawson predicted, “They’re gonna throw that ball up in the air and hope for a miracle” … and he wasn’t wrong. Three receivers lined up on the right and all ran go routes to the end zone, while Tommy Kramer (456 yards, 4 TDs) dropped back and heaved the ball into the crowd scene. A Browns defender tipped the ball but Ahmad Rashad caught it, with one hand, on the 1-yard line and took it in backwards for the score that sealed the NFC Central division title for Minnesota.

When Hail Marys become Fail Marys…

The original ‘Fail Mary’, as it became known, is a misnomer; it was actually a successful play. It occurred in 2012, during a contractual dispute with referees and umpires, when a replacement crew dominated the headlines in the Packers’ Monday night clash with the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson threw a last-second attempt on a 4th-and-10 to Golden Tate, who was surrounded by three defenders in the end zone. Tate pushed one of them away without drawing a flag (hold that thought) but both he and MD Jennings gripped the ball with both hands as they fell to the ground. One referee signalled for a touchdown while another called it an INT. A replay confirmed the score, which resulted in a controversial 14-12 Seattle victory.

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That play is one of several that confirm the benefits of defensive players knocking the ball away – preferably down – rather that trying to intercept it but even that can go wrong. On the final play of a 2010 game in Jacksonville, Texans safety Glover Quin tried to knock down a David Garrard pass intended for Mike Sims-Walker with a double-handed, volleyball-style swat. Alas, it went straight into the hands of Jags receiver Mike Thomas, who brought the ball under control and stepped into the end zone for the winning score.

The Tate TD also highlights the fact that players on both sides are essentially immune from pass-interference flags on a Hail Mary, largely because the NFL doesn’t want a game to be decided on a penalty. Most attempts turn into rugby scrums and no one seems to bat an eyelid. The other dilemma facing defensive coaches is whether to take your chances at the line of scrimmage and send in the pass rush or pull more bodies back to defend the ball down the field. That’s a case of pick your own poison and there’s no right answer.

HOT AND COLD STREAKS: There have been three seasons (2012, 2015 and 2016) with three successful Hail Marys each, while only one was completed between 2003 and 2009.

… and Oh Hell Marys

Because it’s such a high-risk, high-reward play, a Hail Mary can go spectacularly awry and I don’t mean the ‘it didn’t quite work’ kind of wrong; I mean ‘handing the other team seven points’ wrong. Indeed, that happened just three months ago, in Week 12 of the 2023 season, in what might be one of the most ‘Jets’ plays ever.

Trailing 10-6 with the first half all but over, New York Jets QB Tim Boyle unleashed a ball 57 yards through the air. Alas, it went straight to Miami Dolphins safety Jevon Holland on the 1-yard line, and he ran it back for the first Hail Mary returned for a touchdown since ESPN began tracking them in 2006. Starting from the back-left of the field, he ended up at the opposite corner, having run for 124 yards. Picking up critical blocks from Christian Wilkins, Bradley Chubb and Jerome Baker along the way, he left the Jets players sprawling in his wake as he completed his incredible 99-yard pick six.

Despite going on to lose 34-13, Jets running back Breece Hall had no beef with the decision to try a Hail Mary. “It makes perfect sense to me,” he said. “You get the ball at the 50, you throw it at the end zone. When you stop thinking like that, that’s when you’re passive, and I don’t want to be a part of a passive offense. I’m happy we went for it.”

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THE LATEST (SUCCESSFUL) HAIL MARY: In Week 2 of the 2023 season, the Washington Commanders fought back from 21-3 down to lead the Denver Broncos 35–27. With three seconds remaining, Russell Wilson heaved a pass from midfield that was deflected twice before Brandon Johnson caught the TD, giving the QB his second career Hail Mary completion. Alas, Denver failed to convert the ensuing two-point conversion so it was all in vain.

A personal favourite: the Hail Murray

With 35 Hail Marys in the NFL record books, it’s impossible to summarise them all here. But before we finish, let’s revisit one more corker that wasn’t scripted. It was a play that unravelled and the quarterback in question just had to wing it.

The so-called ‘Hail Murray’ occurred when the Cardinals hosted the Buffalo Bills in November 2020. Down 30-26 with 11 seconds remaining and with no timeouts left, the intended target Andy Isabella – running a crossing route – couldn’t get open on a 1st-and-10. The diminutive Kyler Murray evaded a would-be sack from Mario Addison but with two Bills lineman barrelling towards him, it was clear that the play was breaking down, there was nowhere for him to scramble to and time was ebbing away. He was left with no other choice but to hurl it 43 yards downfield and hope for the best. Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, the only Arizona player to reach the end zone, somehow climbed the ladder and caught the ball, his hands rising through those of Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White and Micah Hyde to seal a stunning 32-30 comeback victory.

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Here’s just a taste of how that amazing moment, which won the NFL Play of the Year Award, was described by the radio announcers who cover the Cardinals on KVMP FM. (The fact that it’s nearly all in capitals tells you everything…)

Dave Pasch: “Murray back to throw, flushed out, rolling left in trouble, slips a tackle, gotta launch it, he does, left side, into the end zone, jump ball, and it is… is it caught?! Is it caught?! OH MY GOODNESS, IT’S CAUGHT! DEANDRE HOPKINS CAUGHT IT! HE CAUGHT IT FOR A TOUCHDOWN! WITH ONE SECOND LEFT! I CAN’T BELIEVE IT! YOU’VE GOTTA BE JOKING ME! HOPKINS… REACHES UP WITH THREE DEFENDERS AROUND HIM AND PULLS IT IN! THE CARDINALS LEAD 32-30 WITH A SECOND LEFT!”

Ron Wolfley: “YOU! CAN’T! COVER! ‘NUK! YOU’RE NOT GONNA BE ABLE TO COVER HIM! THROW THE BALL UP! THAT’S WHAT KYLER MURRAY DID! HE EXTENDED THE PLAY WITH HIS LEGS! AND JUST CHUCKED THAT THING UP INTO THE AIR! INTO THE DESERT SKY, BABY! AND D-HOP BROUGHT IT DOWN! TOUCHDOWN!”

Wow. Goosebumps.

Long live the long throw

Since Staubach’s post-game comment half a century ago, the Hail Mary has (somewhat fittingly) come a long way. It is now less of a desperate call for divine intervention and more often a deliberate, strategic play that a cannon-armed quarterback can pull out of the bag when needed. It embodies everything we love about football: skill and strength for sure, but also unpredictability, hope and a little bit of luck.

So, please join me in raising a glass to the Hail Mary: a rare beast, but far from endangered. Rather, it has become an integral part of the NFL’s rich tapestry and, as these examples hopefully illustrate, brought us some of the most dramatic and celebrated moments in league history. That’s why I’m certain that, as long as there are a few seconds on the clock, half a field still to gain and a result hanging in the balance, the Hail Mary will continue to captivate NFL fans.

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PICK SIX – Week 13

Week 13, eh? Unlucky for some. As Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler discuss below, DK Metcalf failed to secure a Seahawks win despite his supersonic exploits, the Titans’ special teams unit had a rough day and two more starting QBs got injured. But maybe fans of the Dolphins, Niners and Packers aren’t quite so superstitious, as things turned out all right for them. Let’s dig into the details.

Not very special teams

The third phase of the game doesn’t get talked about half as much as it probably should do. Maybe the sign of a good special teams unit is that they don’t get much attention because they’re efficient in their operation. Unfortunately, this week, the Tennessee Titans have some column inches heading their way after a disastrous showing from the now former Craig Aukerman-led unit. Yes, we have a Week 13 coaching change – it was that bad!

It’s not unfair to say the unit cost the Titans what would have been an unlikely win against the suddenly charging Colts (winners of five straight games now). They had a lead in the fourth quarter when the wheels started to come off. Lining up to punt the ball away, the unit failed to shift its protection as Indianapolis overloaded to one side. It allowed safety Nick Cross a free run at Ryan Stonehouse and he got home comfortably, blocking the kick with ease. 

A fortunate bounce of the ball later and linebacker Grant Stuard was rumbling 18 yards into the end zone. In a bizarre sequence, the Colts went for two and ended up conceding a rare “pick-two” when Amani Hooker picked off the Minshew throw and returned it the distance for a five-point swing. Surely lightning wouldn’t strike again on the next Titans drive? 

Just three plays later, the punting unit was out again. This time, the Colts blitzed their gunner, Tony Brown, from out wide. The Titans had squeezed an extra lineman in the middle to help prevent another free rusher like the last go-around, which meant that due to his exquisite timing, Brown had a free run at Stonehouse. The collision this time happened before the punter even had a chance to begin the kick process so technically this goes in the book as a fumble. The Colts recovered and settled for a field goal.

It was a crazy game that ended up in overtime with Nick Folk taking on punting duties, as Stonehouse got injured on the second gaffe. The Colts ultimately won it in overtime with a Michael Pitman Jr. TD. The Titans will rue those nine points given up by their punt unit. It has cost Craig Aukerman his job and you have to think that, even with credit in the bag, Mike Vrabel has a warm backside of his own after yet another loss. [SB]

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DK ignores speed limit signs

Six receptions from eight targets, 134 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Sounds like an MVP performance for a winning team, right? But unfortunately for DK Metcalf, that wasn’t quite the case. The Seahawks receiver may have been a one-man highlight reel but his team came up short, losing 41-35 to the Dallas Cowboys in a humdinger at AT&T Stadium on Thursday night.

Seattle started fast. They bagged touchdowns on five of the first seven drives, ending a run of only three TDs over the last four weeks in some style, and Geno Smith passed for 334 yards, 3 TDs and an INT. Metcalf put his team on the board on their third play of the game. Facing a 3rd-and-9, Smith fired a perfectly placed dart between two defenders, Metcalf snagged it in stride and took it to the house for a 73-yard catch-and-run touchdown.

TV viewers could’ve been mistaken for thinking they’d hit the fast-forward button as, during the play, he hit 22.23 mph – making him the fastest ball-carrier this season. He topped Tyreek Hill’s 22.01 mph from Week 5 and ran faster than anyone since Raheem Mostert clocked 23.09 mph in Week 2, 2020. For added context, Usain Bolt’s 100m world record (9.58 seconds) works out at an average of 23.4 mph, although that does include getting up to speed from a stationary start. Afterwards, Metcalf said he had flashbacks to another game against Dallas in 2020, when he got run down by a determined Trevon Diggs for a turnover. “I just saw the ball in the air and nobody was in front of me. Last time I was in the open field, there was a defender behind me and he knocked it out of my hand. I was trying not to relive that moment.”

Having given the Seahawks a 7-3 lead – the first time the Cowboys have trailed at home this season – Metcalf went on to score a 1-yarder just before halftime and his third TD of the night, doubling his season’s tally, nudged Seattle 35-27 ahead at the start of the fourth. But for all his efforts, two late field goals and a Jake Ferguson touchdown closed the game out for the 9-3 Cowboys. In contrast, the Seahawks, now 6-6, stuttered to the finish with three straight turnover on downs, denting an otherwise an impressive offensive performance.

After his record-breaking run, the 25-year-old Metcalf gave the audience yet more to talk about: his American Sign Language (ASL) skills. Metcalf has been fined almost $100,000 for excessive celebrations and unsportsmanlike conduct so learning ASL to avoid further fines for taunting is a smart move. But on Thursday, Metcalf didn’t use it to trash talk; rather, he signed “standing on business” (or “taking care of your responsibilities”) in the end zone. And he certainly took care of business. It was just a shame that three touchdowns and almost breaking the sound barrier weren’t enough to earn the victory. [ST]

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Revenge… for now

We never got to see the best version of San Francisco vs Philadelphia in the NFC Championship game last year with Brock Purdy suffering an unfortunate injury early in that game. The rematch was therefore hotly anticipated, with the league-best Eagles (10-1) hosting the rejuvenated Niners coming in on the back of three successive wins. In the end, it was another one-sided affair but not because of injuries; it was simply that San Francisco just dominated.

Things had started off well enough for the Eagles. They put together two lengthy drives before stalling in the red zone and settling for Jake Elliott field goals. The lead stayed at 6-0 as the defense restricted the Niners to a pair of three-and-outs to start the game. Unfortunately for the Eagles, they were the last stops they made all game as the 49ers scored touchdowns on each of their next six possessions.

The day really belonged to Deebo Samuel. He had talked a fair bit of trash in the run-up to the game but backed up his words with a career day. He found pay dirt three separate times in the same afternoon for the first time ever, taking a pair in through the air alongside a 12-yard rushing score. It doesn’t really do him justice to say he had a pair of touchdowns through the air. Technically, yes he did, but on both occasions, it was all about yards after the catch.

As per Next Gen Stats, “Deebo Samuel gained a career-high plus-88 yards after catch over expected, the fifth-most YACOE in a game by any player since 2018.” When you consider that he finished the day with four grabs for 116 yards total, it’s incredible to think that he was only expected to gain a measly 18 yards and ended up with the stat line that he did.

The Eagles have been doing just enough in recent weeks but they came up against a superior foe on this particular occasion. The rushing defense has been a problem since the bye week and they need to get into much better shape in that regard before these two teams almost inevitably meet again at the back end of January. [SB]

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High on a Hill

The league MVP is essentially a quarterback accolade. QBs have won it 47 times, way more than running backs (16 times) and defensive players (twice). Even a kicker took the honours in the strike-affected 1982 season. But wide receivers? Never. However, in a down year for QB play, Tyreek Hill’s case is increasingly hard to ignore.

At a rain-soaked FedEx Field on Sunday, Hill scorched the Washington Commanders in a 45-15 win, with five catches for 157 receiving yards and two TDs. For his first (in the third play of the game), Hill flew past Quan Martin, waited for Tua Tagovailoa’s underthrown ball to catch up and still motored home untouched for a 78-yarder. In the second quarter, he did it again, this time burning up CB Kendall Fuller on a 60-yard TD. By halftime, Miami were 31-7 ahead and pretty much home and hosed, leaving half an hour of garbage time.

Hill’s record for the season now reads 93 catches for 1,481 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. The latter two metrics lead the NFL, as does his 123.4 receiving yards per game. That puts him on pace to have the NFL’s first 2,000-yard season, breaking his own single-season record (1,964 yards) in the process. Such an historic achievement will surely make the Cheetah the Offensive Player of the Year but is he a bona fide MVP candidate? There’s a bias towards QBs and if a wide receiver has a historically great season, the chances are his quarterback did too. In 2021, Cooper Kupp had 1,947 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns but received just one MVP vote, while Aaron Rodgers received 39. Tagovailoa currently has the fourth-shortest MVP odds, but 42% of his passes and half his 24 touchdown throws have gone to Hill, outlining the importance of the star wideout to his success. The WR himself is sixth in the MVP betting so rule him out at your peril.

On the defensive side, things are looking a bit dicey health-wise for Miami, with linebacker Jaelan Phillips lost for the season last week and three more starters – Jerome Baker, Terron Armstead and Rob Hunt – leaving the field on Sunday. Luckily, this Dolphins side have the league’s most explosive offense to balance things out. Sure, they’ve trounced the minnows – none of the teams they’ve beaten has a winning record – but they haven’t troubled the elite teams yet. Miami may have reached 9-3 for the first time since 2001 to lead their division by three games and head the entire AFC but their losses came against the Bills, Eagles and Chiefs – exactly the calibre of team they’ll meet in January.

On current form, Miami should see off the Titans and Jets but might struggle in their final three games (Cowboys, Ravens and Bills). An 11-6 record will be more than enough to make the postseason but whether it’s enough to retain the conference’s top seed remains to be seen. As with Tyreek’s individual hunt for records and honours, everything is ahead of them, it’s just a matter of keeping it going. [ST]

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Add Trevor and Kenny to the list

Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, Deshaun Watson, Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins: all starting quarterbacks who are done for the season (keep dreaming, Aaron). Add to that list Derek Carr, Justin Fields, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray and Ryan Tannehill, who were all pegged as starters in preseason (Murray was on IR) and have all missed significant time. This brutal season shows no signs of slowing down as we can now add Kenny Pickett and Trevor Lawrence to that list.

Pickett suffered an ankle sprain in the Steelers’ surprise loss to the Cardinals. A week after the offense had shown some signs of life, it had been a pedestrian first-half display before Pickett was injured on a 2-yard scramble. Compounding matters, it set up 4th-and-1 at the goal line, which the Steelers failed to convert. Pickett did not return and Mitchell Trubisky could not generate much in his time on the field, as Pittsburgh dropped what could be a crucial game. Pickett is not being placed on IR so the hope is he may be back for the playoffs, should the Steelers get there, but he will likely miss at least a few weeks.

The Jacksonville Jaguars rounded off the week with a Monday Night Football encounter with the Bengals. With the game tied at 28-28, Lawrence was leading the Jags up the field, just outside of the red zone. The play that silenced the stadium was a Cincinnati sack. With pressure being applied by Trey Hendrickson, it was left tackle Walker Little that inadvertently stood on the ankle of Lawrence when dropping back in pass protection. Lawrence dropped to the ground in obvious pain and took a long time to be helped off the field. 

At time of writing, we do not have an update on the severity of the ankle sprain but you have to imagine that Lawrence will miss some time at least, with CJ Beathard acting as his understudy for now. Insult was added to injury as the Jags went on to lose the contest in overtime, keeping the Bengals’ slim playoff hopes alive and pulling the Jags back within striking distance of Indianapolis in the AFC South. Jacksonville fans will be keeping fingers crossed and eyes glued to the internet for updates on their signal caller. What a brutal season to play quarterback! [SB]

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Love changes everything

As anyone who’s read Shakespeare or the Romantic Poets will know, love can blossom in the unlikeliest of places… even Green Bay, Wisconsin. Yes, we’re talking Packers QB Jordan Love here. The guy is suddenly the guy, with 11 touchdowns, two interceptions and three wins in his last three outings.

Two seasons ago, Love made his first career start against the Chiefs, stepping in at the last minute for the COVID-striken Aaron Rodgers. Alas, the young QB got blitzed to smithereens and lost his debut 13-7. But this Sunday night, he turned the tables on the reigning Super Bowl champions, posting 267 yards and three touchdowns while orchestrating a 27-19 win.

Love got hot at the start of each half. In the first, two 75-yard drives left the young QB with figures of 10 of 11 for 109 yards and two touchdowns – one each to Ben Sims and Christian Watson. Kansas City inevitably fought back to 14-12 in the third quarter but Love kept his team ahead with a 33-yard rainbow to Romeo Doubs on a 4th down before making a 12-yard connection to Watson, who ‘climbed the ladder’ to beat his man and snag his second TD of the night. It marked Love’s fourth game with 3+ passing TDs and no INTs this season, equalling Brock Purdy for the most this season.

After falling to 2-5, their worst start to a campaign since 2005, the Packers have steadily recovered under Love’s leadership. And since their bye in Week 7, Love has nailed 14 TD throws, more than anyone not named Dak Prescott. He is happier standing in the pocket now and has eight TD passes and zero INTs against the blitz, according to ESPN; only Tua (10:1) has been better. And he’s clearly confident enough to air it out now, connecting on some of those go routes that used to fall shy of their intended target. In short, he’s becoming everything the Green Bay front office told us he would be but no one believed.

On a run of four wins in five that includes the scalps of Detroit and Kansas City, Matt LeFleur’s team find themselves at 6-6 and occupying the final Wild Card spot in the NFC. Given their current form and remaining schedule (no opponents currently above .500 lie in wait), the unthinkable is starting to look more than likely: the Packers will be playing meaningful football in the New Year.

Notably, Sunday’s defeat, which knocks the Chiefs off the top of the AFC perch, was also the first loss that Taylor Swift has seen in person since she started dating Travis Kelce. She’s been to five games now and was, until this week, KC’s lucky charm. So which is the greatest Love story now, eh? [ST]

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PICK SIX – Week 12

This week’s NFL action was nicely spread out over several days, due to the holiday season in the United States. But while our American cousins gorged on turkey and pumpkin pie – and football of course – Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler set to work picking six more things to discuss from the Week 12 slate. This week, we expand on two players breaking records, the Steelers’ rejuvenated offense, our first Black Friday game, the sub-par NFC South and possibly the best game of the season so far.

DaRon sets Bland-new record

During his team’s annual Thanksgiving Day game on Thursday, Dallas Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland snared his fifth pick-six of the year, setting a new single-season record in the process. He intercepted Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell and returned it 63 yards, eluding Howell, Brian Robinson and Terry McLaurin on his way to the paint.

The ensuing celebration lasted so long that Head Coach Mike McCarthy had to call a timeout before the extra point attempt. And the timing couldn’t have been better for the Californian, whose family was in town for the holidays. “It means everything to break the record in front of them,” Bland said postgame, “and do it on Thanksgiving Day is another thing to be thankful for.”

As well as sticking a cherry on the top of a comfortable 45-10 victory, the play vaulted the second-year cornerback above Eric Allen, Jim Kearny and Ken Houston in the NFL record books for the most defensive TDs in a season. Bland also becomes the leader in career pick-sixes in Cowboys franchise history.

Even last year, as a rookie drafted from Fresno State in Round 5, the promise of what was to come was evident in the five interceptions he made while filling in for an injured Jourdan Lewis. But this season, the step up has been exponential. The 24-year-old has transformed into a premier defensive playmaker, accumulating 48 tackles, 13 passes defensed and a league-leading seven interceptions.

This year, Bland has yet to go more than two consecutive games without a touchdown. His journey into the record books began even before he was thrust into the starting lineup when Trevon Diggs tore his ACL in practice ahead of Week 3. His 22-yard pick-six in an opening-day 40-0 rout of the Giants was soon followed by scores against the Patriots (54 yards), Rams (30 yards), Panthers (30 yards) and now the Commanders. His five defensive TDs are two more than any other team has accrued this season (the Colts and the Seahawks are the closest with three) and within the Cowboys camp, he only trails Cee Dee Lamb on either side of the ball. For added context, his tally is just one shy of the New York Jets’ entire offensive output.

With six more regular season games still to go, Dallas fans will be keen to see if Bland can extend his record yet further. But for now, his exceptional instincts and ability to read the game is something every Cowboys fan should be thankful for. [ST]

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Steelers win – with offense

The Pittsburgh Steelers finally ended the longest streak in the league for most games without 400 yards on offense in Week 12. They officially surpassed the 400-yard mark, in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s game against their divisional foes from Cincinnati, with a 13-yard run from Najee Harris.

The last time they put up 400 yards in a single game was way back, some 1,162 days ago — in Week 2 of the 2020 season. The 424 yards was also the most gained by their offense since the 429 posted against the New Orleans Saints in Week 16 of 2018. It was a welcome sight for an offense that ranked 28th in yards per game entering the pivotal AFC North matchup.

Despite only scoring 16 points in the victory over the Bengals, there’s little doubt that the Steelers offense looked as good as it has all season. The game came just five days after the firing of Matt Canada as the team’s offensive coordinator. Quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan and running backs coach Eddie Faulkner are working in tandem as interim OCs, with Sullivan calling plays from the sideline and Faulkner handling the bulk of the other day-to-day responsibilities.

The obvious conclusion from the eye test was a more explosive attack. The opening play of the game saw a 24-yard connection to Pat Freiermuth – the first of six plays over 20 yards. The tight end went on to register over 100 yards receiving. Najee Harris also had his best game of the season as the Steelers dominated time of possession and outgained an opponent for the first time all season.

Now, the Green Bay Packers hold the longest active streak for most consecutive games without 400+ net yards, holding an 18-game streak dating back to Week 11 of the 2022 season. [SB]

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Another black day for the Jets

The NFL does like to hitch itself to traditional holidays and milk them for all they’re worth. It’s had games on Christmas Day for decades and Thanksgiving matchups since 1934, with the late night game becoming an annual thing in 2006. Now, amid the retail madness that is Black Friday, the NFL has jumped on the bandwagon again.

At 3pm ET on Friday, the New York Jets – in black uniforms, naturally – played host to the Miami Dolphins in an all-AFC East clash, mirroring the three divisional games from the previous day. The first-ever Black Friday match was aired exclusively by Amazon Prime Video for free (even for non-Prime members) and inevitably, money lies at the heart of the development. The Thanksgiving Day games have separate TV rights and after CBS, Fox and NBC took their noses out of the trough, there was none of the $1 billion pie left. Undeterred, Amazon proposed an annual game the day after, to coincide with its biggest shopping event of the year, and shelled out $100 million to the NFL for the privilege.

Through the 11-year deal, they should make a healthy return on their investment through interactive adverts and QR codes for viewers to scan before, during and after the game. The ads were even tailored to different audiences – depending on whether the viewer was already a Prime member, for example. This latest move in the battle for consumer dollars during the holiday season is designed to encourage millions of football fans to leave the malls early, head home for the game and continue shopping from the couch, smart phone in hand, via Amazon. Ker-ching!

On the field, as expected, it was a one-sided affair, with Miami sealing a 34-13 win in a fast-emptying stadium. Raheem Mostert (94 rushing yards) ran in for two scores, Jaylen Waddle led the receiving corps with 114 yards and Tyreek Hill (nine catches for 102 yards) handed the ball from his 7-yard TD reception to his new wife Keeta (Keeta and the Cheetah? Cute!). But for the Jets, things got ugly… and stayed that way. Tim Boyle’s Hail Mary attempt being returned for a 99-yard pick-six by Jevon Holland pretty much summed up their day.  

But what now for BFF (Black Friday Football)? Well, the fixture is already being talked about as an annual affair and franchises like the Cincinnati Bengals have already volunteered to be the regular host, much like the Cowboys and Lions are on Thanksgiving. Not surprisingly, the NFL politely declined Cincy’s offer and opted to go with New York, the country’s biggest retail market – at least for now. Lucrative though that may be, the league should think twice before agreeing to head back to MetLife Stadium for the next one because on the day after Thanksgiving, Americans have probably had enough turkeys. [ST]

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11k Kelce

It’s not been a bad few months for Travis Kelce. Super Bowl champion, tick. Dating pop megastar, tick. Fastest tight end to reach 11,000 career receiving yards, tick.

His latest feat was accomplished on the back of a 27-yard reception in the second quarter against the Las Vegas Raiders, which contributed towards his tally of 91 total yards on six receptions. It was a gorgeous connection and fitting that such a play would be the record breaker. Kelce bullied Divine Deablo off the line and broke towards the corner. Mahomes dropped a dime into his bucket with a safety closing in and a couple of other trailing defenders narrowing the window.

It was a much-needed contribution that helped the Chiefs rebound from an early 14-point deficit. The aforementioned 27-yard catch came on the pre-half-time drive where KC knotted up the scoreboard and they would not look back. Recent second-half struggles were nowhere to be seen as Kelce and co. moved the ball with ease, gaining 17 second-half points and a big division win just when things were starting to look a little tricky for the Chiefs.

Kelce’s new mark, reaching 11,000 yards in just 154 games, comfortably eclipses the previous record set by Tony Gonzalez (191 games). The question now becomes whether Kelce can hunt down the other record held by Gonzalez: most receiving yards in history for a tight end. That currently sits at 15,127 so there’s still some way to go. Having just turned 34, Kelce would realistically need a strong finish to this campaign and probably sustain at least three more seasons at this level. Antonio Gates is next on the list to surpass, followed by Jason Witten so they are the next two hurdles to overcome. And while he is Patrick Mahomes’ most reliable target, it would be foolish to bet against him.

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Falcons heading north in the South

On Sunday, Taylor Heinicke’s hamstring injury meant Desmond Ridder came back in from the cold after his Week 9 benching but with his proclivity for turnovers (six lost fumbles and six INTs), it won’t be QB play that takes Atlanta to the playoffs, should they get there. Indeed, it was their RBs and DBs who starred in a 25-14 win over the New Orleans Saints. Atlanta’s ground attack cranked out an impressive 228 yards, with rookie Bijan Robinson rumbling for 91 rushing yards and a score, backed by Tyler Allgeier (64), Cordarrelle Patterson (43) and Ridder himself (30). On the other side of the ball, Jessie Bates’ 92-yard pick six was the game’s highlight, while his timely punch-out to force a Taysom Hill fumble on the 9-yard line wasn’t far behind.

The win not only ends a three-game losing skid but also vaults Atlanta over their opponents and up into first place in the basket case that is the NFC South. Last year, all four teams posted losing records, with the 7-10 Saints, Panthers and Falcons all trailing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who snuck into the playoffs at 8-9. These things are often one-season anomalies but in the worst division in football (© everyone), history is repeating itself. Pre-season, this was ranked the weakest pool by every pundit who proffered an opinion. And sure enough, all the other divisional pacesetters are currently 8-3 or better but here, the Falcons head the pack at 5-6.

The Panthers, now 1-10 after Sunday’s loss to the Titans, are the worst team in football. To be fair, they’d been decimated by injuries even before this weekend, when Leviska Shenault, Vonn Bell and others joined the growing list of casualties. But even so, rookie QB Bryce Young just isn’t cutting it and after 11 games, their offense sits at or near the bottom of the pile in just about every metric. No wonder HC Franck Reich got the Order of the Boot yesterday, not even getting to one-and-done. No one here’s making the postseason via the Wild Card route but the fact that Carolina can still win this dumpster fire of a group is mindboggling.

Their next opponents are the Bucs (4-7). It seems the post-Tom Brady experiment with Baker Mayfield hasn’t worked and with the NFL’s worst rushing attack and the second-worst pass defense, they may also be in the market for a new head coach soon. After more erratic play in a 27-20 loss to the Colts this weekend, they’re stuck in third place, behind the Saints (5-6). In the Big Easy, star man Alvin Kamara isn’t exactly tearing up trees, Michael Thomas is back on IR and the red zone has become their kryptonite.

So, by default, that leaves the Falcons – a team that hasn’t bettered seven wins since 2017 – as the least-worst bet for the NFC South crown as we enter December. The Dirty Birds are 3-0 in the division and there’s no team with a winning record left on their schedule. Looking down the stretch in the NFC South, there’s only one week left without a divisional clash of some sort and the final one – the Falcons/Saints rematch – may yet decide which of these unworthy teams hosts a playoff game. I’m hardly sticking my neck out by predicting there’s more ugly football to come in the remaining weeks but however bad it is, at least it’ll be competitive! [ST]

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Game of the season… so far

What a game! Buffalo 34-37 Philadelphia. It was a game that ebbed and flowed, and ultimately came down to some more Jalen Hurts brilliance as the Eagles found a way to secure yet another win. 

It was rather baffling and stupid that the home crowd booed off the team at halftime despite their impressive record to date. Yes, the Bills had been good, dominant in fact. They left six costly points off the board with a field goal block and a field goal miss either side of the half-time whistle. Josh Allen had a great night, throwing for more than 330 yards, but he could only look on as Hurts and company took over in the second half.

The Philly QB had five total touchdowns including three through the air. They included one to DeVonta Smith, who continues to turn heads towards the business end of the campaign. AJ Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus caught the others. 

It was almost in vain, however, as the Bills edged ahead after the two-minute warning. The problem, however, was that Hurts still had time. The Eagles drove into field goal range and Jake Elliott booted a 59-yarder to force overtime. The Bills won the toss and Josh Allen got down to the Eagles’ 22 but Buffalo had to settle for another FG. That gave the Eagles yet another life. They grasped it with both hands and capped a nine-play drive with a Hurts 12-yard scramble for the win. The Eagles yet again found a way, and their quarterback proved yet again he can be the difference maker in the big moments. [SB]

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PICK SIX – Week 5

We’re five weeks into the season and we – Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler – are here to pick six more things that caught our eye in the last round of games. This week, our interest-o-meter was set off by the Bears waking up, the Bills going to sleep and the Steelers defying all logic, plus CJ Stroud, Brock Purdy and Bill Belichick. Let’s pick the meat off the bones.

Bears emerge from hibernation

It’s fair to say that Chicago have not been having any fun lately. They came into Thursday night on a run of 14 losses stretching back 350 days (the longest losing streak in their 104-year history). They had just squandered a 21-point lead to the Broncos. Their DC resigned in Week 2. Exiled WR Chase Claypool was shipped off to Miami. And before the game, the passing of franchise legend Dick Butkus was announced.

But, as the saying goes, it’s always darkest before the dawn and on TNF, they – one of the league’s two remaining winless teams – finally got the dub they’d been so desperate for. The Bears travelled to Washington to face a feisty Commanders team that took the Eagles to OT the previous week and despite starting as six-point underdogs, they got a deserved 40-20 victory. They shot out to a 27-3 halftime lead but unlike last week, the Bears didn’t buckle when injuries, not least to RB Khalil Herbert, started to bite. Indeed, they sacked Sam Howells five times.

But it was the connection between Justin Fields and DJ Moore that decided this matchup. Despite only completing 15 passes to just three different players – Moore, plus tight ends Cole Kmet and Robert Tonyan – Fields (282 passing yards/4 TDs) torched Emmanuel Forbes and Kendall Fuller all night. With 617 yards, eight TDs and one INT in his past two games, he suddenly seems to have found his groove.

Moore was the main beneficiary, with a career-high (and TNF-high) 230 receiving yards and 3 TDs from just eight catches. That haul makes him the first Bears player in the Super Bowl era with 200+ receiving yards and 3+ receiving TDs in a game. Moore’s numbers were boosted by chunk plays of 58, 56, 39, 32 and 20 yards, and he could’ve had another big TD had a fourth-quarter bomb not been overthrown.

So, after an entire year of losing every which way, the Bears – and HC Matt Eberflus – can finally enjoy a W. Which means you can drag that meme, which showed Chicago as the only franchise across the big four US sports leagues (NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL) that hadn’t won a game since Elon Musk bought Twitter in October 2022, off your desktop and into the recycle bin. [ST]

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Stroud and proud

It has been a record-breaking start to a career for Texans quarterback CJ Stroud and during the Week 5 21-19 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, he added more records to his name. He has now started his young NFL career with 186 passing attempts without throwing an interception. That mark eclipses the 176 attempts made by Dak Prescott when he started in the NFL and sets the new benchmark for 2024 and beyond.

It is one of those stats that could be meaningless, however. Essentially tossing the ball into the stands on every play would avoid an interception but wouldn’t be an ideal gameplan to win in the NFL. The fact is, Stroud has accomplished this feat while playing well and pumping much-needed life and optimism into the Texans franchise.

He may not have had his best game on Sunday but the big players show up in the big moments. Down by 6 with just under seven minutes to go, Stroud orchestrated an 11-play, 75-yard drive that culminated in a beautiful 18-yard touchdown strike to tight end Dalton Schultz. It moved the Texans in front but it would be the last time Stroud touched the football as the Falcons managed the clock, to kick a game-winning field goal as the clock hit zero.

It would not be an understatement to suggest that Stroud doesn’t have the most stellar of supporting casts. With that said, it seems as though the Texans have found the answer at the most important position on the field. Stroud is giving his team every opportunity to win, he is not turning the ball over and he will surely only continue to get better and better. Houston may have found a really good one. [SB]

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To err is human

These days, everything is ‘smart’: our TVs, our central heating, our phones, pretty much every piece of tech has gone beyond automation and is now seemingly capable of sentient thought. The robots will soon take over, believe me, and the revolution seems to have started, ever-so-quietly, in the most unexpected of places: among the ranks of NFL quarterbacks.

Last month, Chicago QB Justin Fields blamed his ‘robotic’ play on his coaches, who were feeding him too much information. That’s just what a robot would do, isn’t it – blame us unpredictable, flawed humans for making him look too mechanical. Not convinced? OK, fair enough. But how do you explain Niners quarterback Brock Purdy?

The last name picked in the 2022 NFL draft has now been at the helm of 10 straight regular season wins since starting for the 49ers. He is a machine – literally. The so-called Mr Irrelevant has yet to lose (other than the time he had to leave the field in the first quarter against the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game, presumably to have a circuit board resoldered or his mainframe rebooted). He had just one incompletion last week against Arizona and has yet to throw an interception five games into the new season. In his latest outing – Sunday’s 42-10 trouncing of Dallas – he went 17 of 24 for 252 yards and a career-high four TDs, three of them to George Kittle. He’s improving week by week without regression: that’s machine learning for you.

Broadcaster Kyle Brandt, the co-host of Good Morning Football, has this running joke that Purdy is an AI experiment. He’s had some fantastic rants about Purdy not bleeding, sweating or even blinking, and his conspiracy theory has even been picked up by the UK press. “I think there is a conspiracy that will certainly come out years from now that they wanted the first artificial intelligence player,” he told The Mirror. “They’re like: ‘We need to start introducing AI into the game.’”

It’s obviously just a bit of fun but what if he’s actually right? With someone (something?) this consistent, this dependable, you can’t rule it out. Maybe it’s a Truman-Show-style social experiment but until Purdy shows that he’s fallible – and I’m not talking about them programming an algorithm into the matrix to make him appear more human – I’m with Kyle. Brock Purdy’s a machine, the 49ers are going 17-0 and the day the robots take over is closer than you think. [ST]

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The GOAT keeps being slaughtered

It’s been a long time since we’ve heard the boo birds at Gillette Stadium but this Sunday, they were out in full force. It’s been a quiet three years post-Tom Brady, with most fans giving Bill Belichick plenty of time and grace to rebuild the powerhouse franchise of the first 20 years of the millennium. Those heady days of winning 17 out of 20 divisional titles, nine conference championships and six Super Bowls feel like a lifetime ago.

For New England, the head coach is still the face of the franchise, and therein lies the problem. Name a superstar on the New England roster. You can’t. They don’t have any that you could name. But they do have plenty of journeymen. Ezekiel Elliot last played quality football three or four years ago. JuJu Smith-Schuster was the Steelers’ number 1 receiver three or four years ago. Hunter Henry, the tight end, may have become something special in San Diego – and no, that isn’t a typo, that’s how long ago it was. And I haven’t even mentioned Brady’s ‘replacement’, Mac Jones, as that’s a whole other story.

Normally, a Belichick defense will at least keep things tight. How does shipping 72 points in two weeks sound? The Cowboys are a team that can rack up points on any given week but the Saints? New Orleans had scored less than 21 points in 10 straight games, yet they rocked up to Foxborough and put up the biggest shutout scoreline against the Patriots in their history (34-0). 

The quote from the press conference Belichick used after the game was: “So just plain and simply, we’ve got to find a way to play and coach better than that. So that’s what we are going to do: start all over and get back on a better track than we’re on right now.” Maybe the answer is that the Patriots truly start again and hand the keys over completely, as this current version of New England is a mirage of what once was. [SB]

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No jet lag for the Jags

On reflection, the second International Series game of the season, a 25-20 win for the Jaguars over the Bills at Tottenham Stadium, didn’t quite live up to the hype. The game only kicked into life midway through the fourth quarter, when the teams traded four TDs – two each. Until then though, it had all been rather attritional, with the defenses on top and offenses struggling to fill the highlight reel.

Sure, the Jags secured their second win on these shores in a week and deserved to move to 3-2. Trevor Lawrence threw for 315 yards but only one TD – the game’s opener to Zay Jones – leaving the bulk of the damage to be done by Travis Etienne (136 yards and 2 rushing TDs) and Calvin Ridley (seven catches for 122 yards). They did have some trouble with drops and fumbles, but their D stepped up when needed, forcing the Bills to punt six times and leaving them with under 22 minutes of possession.

Beforehand, this clash looked to be one of the better of the 35 contests to be staged in our capital, and many – me included – were expecting a shootout. Both teams are tipped for postseason action and the Bills, who had scored 123 points in their last three games, were arguably the hottest team in the league. Yet they rarely showed it. Josh Allen threw for just 23 yards in the first quarter, the Bills mustered 29 rushing yards all game and they committed 11 penalties for 109 yards. With Greg Rousseau, Tre’Davious White and Shaq Lawson already out, Matt Milano leaving early with a broken leg, DaQuan Jones also injuring a pec and the returning Von Miller on a snap count, it was mainly left to AJ Epenesa (with two of his team’s five sacks) to keep things competitive on the defensive side. A scoreless third quarter meant that theoretically, everything was still to play for but the Jags looked in control and always stayed a score or two ahead.

On Friday’s media day, Stefon Diggs called his QB ‘sleepyhead’ and Allen himself admitted to having “a few coffees” to stay awake, even though he doesn’t normally drink the stuff. Then in the post-match presser, he confessed “We never felt like we got into a rhythm until late in the game.” Which does make you wonder: how much of a factor is the international travel? The Buffalo team flew in to the UK overnight on Thursday and stayed up to practice on Friday, in an attempt to overcome the five-hour time dfference. But it didn’t seem to have the desired effect, with the Bills looking like they had yet to acclimatise or adjust to a game that kicked off at 9.30am Eastern time.

By contrast, Jacksonville had been in London for 10 days, having beaten Atlanta at Wembley the week before. I guess the success of the Jaguars’ extended stay makes back-to-back games in London more likely in the future, but it also raises the question as to whether it will give them a massive advantage. [ST]

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The Steelers top the North. How?

“The AFC North: toughest division in football” is a line often thrown around by commentators. But after five weeks of the season, the toughest thing about it is figuring out if any of the teams are actually any good. There is a solitary game between the four divisional rivals after the opening quarter of the season. The team at the top? The one with a minus 31 point differential: the Pittsburgh Steelers.

In an awful game full of mistakes and miscues from both sides, the Steelers somehow managed to conjure up 14 points in the 4th quarter to beat the Baltimore Ravens 17-10. It started with a safety on a blocked punt. The next drive resulted in a field goal so the Steelers were just two points behind. The final seven minutes of the game were simply bizarre.

The Ravens punted again but this time the Steelers muffed the return, setting up Baltimore at the Steelers 7-yard line. Lamar Jackson inexplicably threw an interception. The Steelers edged towards field goal territory when Kenny Pickett unleashed his best pass of the day, 41 yards to George Pickens, for a touchdown. It surprised everyone in the stadium and it also gave Lamar the ball back with 1:17 to go. He fumbled, and the ball was recovered by TJ Watt. Surely it was game over?

Even then, Pittsburgh seemingly didn’t want the win. They knelt twice, forcing the Ravens to use timeouts, and were going to kneel a third time. But on the play, there was an illegal procedure so it brought up 4th down after running just 13 seconds off the clock and going backwards 6 yards. They kicked an FG but that still left Lamar with one last chance of redemption… until a Watt sack on 4th down ended the game. Somehow, Pittsburgh improved to 3-2.

Surely the Steelers won’t win the division playing like this? They are, however, consistent in that they know the limitations of their offence and play behind a big play defence that has 11 turnovers through five games. The rest of the division needs to sort out their Jekyll and Hyde play because as always, Mike Tomlin will get the Steelers to at least .500 by hook or by crook. [SB]

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PICK SIX – Week 2

Welcome back to our new series, in which Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler pick over half a dozen things from this week’s action. After Week 2, we’re unsure about the Broncos, impressed by Puka Nacua, entertained by the Bills and concerned about the QBs for the Bengals, Bears and Jets. So, without further ado, here’s our Pick Six…

Nacua looks pukka in Rams’ young offense

If you play fantasy football, then the name Puka Nacua was probably a hot commodity on the waiver wire last week. And if he’s still available in your league, he won’t be for very much longer. The fifth-round pick impressed on his debut with 10 catches for 119 yards in the Rams’ win over the Seattle Seahawks and his follow-up earned him a place in the NFL record books. Nacua hauled in 15 of his 20 targets from Matthew Stafford against the impressive 49ers defense on Sunday, totalling 147 yards. Those 15 receptions are the most by a rookie in a single game in NFL history. 

Nacua is also the first rookie to have double-digit receptions in each of his first two NFL games, and his 25 receptions so far is a new record for a rookie in his first two games – a league high held by ex-49er Earl Cooper that had been in the books for over 40 years. Nacua is on pace for 212 receptions this year, which would smash the single-season reception record by 63. Let’s pump the brakes on that one, but it certainly highlights the exceptional start he has made.

When you lack draft capital and cap space, hitting on late-round draft picks is a necessity. The Rams have possibly unearthed a real gem here in the BYU man. Nacua’s emergence is especially timely with Cooper Kupp on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Kupp’s absence left many questions about how the Rams would start the season. Nacua is not only filling that absence, he’s thriving because of it. The question on Rams fans’ lips now will be “what might this offense look like when both get on the field?” [SB]

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Joe’s woes are a pain in the calf

Things are definitely not going to plan for the Bengals, whose second divisional loss – 27-24 to the Ravens – leaves them slumped at 0-2. With only two starters playing preseason games and franchise QB Joe Burrow easing back from injury, a slow start was inevitable. The team faced exactly the same circumstances last year and still made the AFC Championship decider so there’s no panic or overreaction… yet. Then again, only 9.6% of teams starting 0-2 since the 1970 merger have made the playoffs so it’s not ideal.

In 2022, Burrow’s issue was an appendectomy. This time, a calf strain that wiped out his training camp was clearly still a problem in the disastrous season opener (a 24-3 shellacking by Cleveland). And the Cincy offense stuttered yet again on Sunday: early in Q2, they’d gained 14 yards from six plays and had no first downs, and Burrow’s 35 passing yards at HT were actually down from last week. He did eventually find some sort of rhythm (27 of 41, 222 yards, 2 TDs) but with a red zone INT as well, it wasn’t enough.

Losing to an AFC North foe is one thing but having your franchise QB – and the league’s highest-paid player – unwilling to run in case of further injury is quite another. Despite the obvious caution, he still tweaked his calf late in the game and limped off. Even a couple of weeks out could totally scupper the season for Cincinnati, who only have Jake Browning and Will Grier as cover. Worryingly, in the post-game presser, Burrow could only muster “I don’t know”, “it’s tough to tell” and “we’ll see” answers when asked about his immediate and long-term fitness. 

If the Bengals are going to dig themselves out of this hole again, they’ll need Burrow available and back at his best. But at the moment, neither of those things looks very likely. [ST]

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Sean Payton can’t Hackett

Here’s a life lesson: if you have nothing nice to say, then don’t say anything at all. 

“One of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL” – these are the words of Sean Payton, who replaced Nathaniel Hackett as head coach of the Denver Broncos this offseason. Those words may come back to bite the new HC in the backside as the Broncos slipped to 0-2, unfathomably a worse start than the team made under Hackett’s stewardship last term.

It is still early days and there are some small glimpses from which to take some optimism. Russell Wilson looks better than he did a year ago. Admittedly, that’s a low bar to cross but in the first half in particular, Wilson and the offense looked good. Marvin Mims had a breakout game, getting on the end of two deep shots and also posting a long punt return. Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton were back on the same field for what feels like the first time in forever, and Javonte Williams showed some nice bursts in the running game. A handsome lead grew, and optimism ensued. Maybe, finally, the Broncos had flipped the switch.

Unfortunately though, when up 21-3, a costly Wilson fumble changed the direction of the game. Washington would go on a 32-points-to-3 run with the Broncos defense gashed by Sam Howell through the air and Brian Robinson on the ground. The offense could not sustain drives and, despite a late field goal and Hail Mary almost getting Denver out of trouble, they fell short on the two-point attempt needed to tie the game. 

An ugly-looking trip across the country to the red-hot and explosive Dolphins is next on the schedule as the Broncos stare into an 0-3 hole. The progression between Wilson and Payton will determine whether this season is a success or not but the early returns are not encouraging in Mile High. [SB]

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Cool your jets on Zach

After a dramatic Week 1 win against the Bills, New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson came back down to earth with Sunday’s 30-10 loss to Dallas. Sure, the highlight reel includes a 68-yard touchdown pass to namesake Garrett (much of which was YAC) in the first half and he kept things close for a while. But as the game began to unravel, so did he.

As we discussed last week, the Cowboys defense is rock solid, having allowed just one TD so far this season (the aforementioned Garrett Wilson catch-and-run). In particular, DOPY-in-waiting Micah Parsons is on fire. He wreaked havoc all day and got two of his team’s three sacks this weekend. The backup QB buckled under the pressure, completing just 12 of 27 (44.4%) for 170 yards and throwing three INTs in the fourth quarter, killing any faint hopes of a comeback.

To be fair, they weren’t the reason the Jets lost. His second and third turnovers came from blind-faith throws when the game was all but over anyway. But with no run game to share the load (Breece Hall, Dalvin Cook and Michael Carter combined for a paltry 24 yards, 12 less than Wilson himself), New York had little to offer without a mercurial QB able to weave some magic.

I don’t know what a healthy Aaron Rodgers would’ve done against this Dallas team but I’m guessing his second-half drives would’ve delivered more than one fumble, two three-and-outs and three interceptions. I also don’t know what the long-term answer at QB is but if this outing is anything to go by, it’s not Zach Wilson. Even if he isn’t terrible, he needs too much help around him to be good and yet HC Robert Saleh remains adamant that he’s rolling with the 24-year-old.

With the Patriots and Chiefs next up, let’s see how far they roll… and in which direction. [ST]

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Anything but a Fields day

The Chicago Bears felt they hit the jackpot in the draft. Number 1 overall pick in hand and their own quarterback of the future on the roster. Or so they thought…

Fields made improvements in Year 2, developing as a passer and adding an extra dimension with his ability in his legs. He rushed for over 1,100 yards a season ago but whether by choice or by coincidence, he doesn’t seem intent on rushing this campaign. Fields took six sacks against the Buccaneers on Sunday. On several of those sacks, the protection up front was solid for long enough for Fields to either try to escape or throw the ball away. However, Fields repeatedly held onto the ball too long, which allowed the defense to converge on him. 

Fields was fortunate to only commit two turnovers. He fumbled the ball twice, both of which the Bears managed to recover. He did, however, throw two interceptions with the game on the line. The ugliest-ever pick six might go to Shaq Barrett who was the recipient of the first gift. After a bit of pinball, the linebacker came down with the ball and was pushed into the end zone by the rest of the defense from the 4-yard line. (Barrett has dedicated this season to his late daughter Arrayah, who drowned in April aged two, and marked his first NFL TD by blowing a kiss to the sky so maybe it was also the most beautiful pick-six ever.) With the Bears now in desperation mode, 10 points behind, the next drive would lead to another interception on 3rd and 19 following a crippling 11-yard sack on 2nd down.

Fields has the ability to make some amazing throws to all levels of the field but he lacks any sort of consistency. Yesterday, he missed some wide-open targets that kept points off the board for the Bears. Fields is now almost 30 starts into his career so his lack of field vision is a huge concern for Chicago. The only silver lining would be that if Fields continues to be this bad, the team might have a chance to put it right at the next draft. Well, maybe. [SB]

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Normal service resumes in Buffalo

Forget Week 1’s poor showing against the Jets. The Bills are back in business and all is well in upstate New York.

In a blowout 38-10 win on Sunday evening, Buffalo absolutely suffocated the Las Vegas Raiders. A 75-yard TD drive on the opening possession was as good as it got for the Silver and Black, before it all became too easy for the Bills. They barely needed to get out of second gear all night.

Josh Allen went from four turnovers last week to completing his first 13 passes of the game this week, not missing a target till three minutes before half-time. He ended up with 31 of 37 (83.8%) for 274 yards and three TDs (and crucially, no INTs this time). His touchdown pass to Khalil Shakir was a great piece of improvisation after an abandoned scramble forced him to retreat, while the others – a gentle lob to Dawson Knox and an impressive cross-body throw to Gabe Davis – were both made on the run.

Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey mixed in plenty of ground game and for once, it wasn’t all left to Allen to carry the load. The rushing attack contributed 183 yards, with James Cook’s career-high of 17 carries for 123 rushing yards complemented by Damien Harris (33 yards) and Latavius Murray (22 yards), both of whom trundled in for touchdowns. Even the run defense held firm, limiting the Raiders’ Josh Jacobs to -2 yards on nine carries (the lowest total by a reigning rushing champion in the Super Bowl era).

So it’s as you were, people. The Buffalo Bills are fine and should be right up there in the AFC title race come the end of the season. [ST]

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Week 14 and 15: Rookie Standouts

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Is it just me, or is the season getting better every week? This week had it all: high-stakes drama, questionable refereeing, the biggest comeback win in NFL history, and possibly the most mind-blowing finish to a game this season. Since I missed last week’s entry, here are three rookies that stood out in weeks 14 and 15.

Week 14 

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Brock Purdy, Quarterback – San Francisco 49ers

Purdy looked confident in the pocket as he finished 16 of 21 for 185 yards and two touchdowns with a quarterback rating of 134.0, all of this while starting opposite the greatest of all time.

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Travon Walker, Edge – Jacksonville Jaguars

The number one pick in the draft finally regained that swagger as he ended his five-week sack drought with a dominant performance. Finishing with two hurries, one sack, and one fumble, he recorded a 91.6 PFF pass rush rating.

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Isiah Pacheco, Running Back – Kansas City Chiefs

After delivering solid rushing performances this season, Pacheco has started to become a threat in the passing game. Finishing the game with 93 all-purpose yards, he also forced five missed tackles with his aggressive running style.

Week 15 

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Kayvon Thibodeaux, Edge – New York Giants

Thibodeaux bet the house on himself this week with a bold statement in the lead up to the Giants’ 20-12 win over the Washington Commanders. When asked if he liked prime time, the rookie responded with bravado and swagger: “Prime time like me.”

He backed up that quote straight away by stuffing two runs on the Commanders first possession before getting another on their second. Despite being shown on the sidelines getting oxygen, nothing was slowing him down. However, at the start of the 2nd quarter, he charged past Washington lineman Charles Leno Jr. to bat the ball out of Taylor Heinicke’s hands, pick up the fumble, and rumble in for his first career touchdown. Kayvon finished the day with 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 fumble, 1 fumble recovery, 1 touchdown, and 12 tackles (9 solo).

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Tyler Allgeier, Running Back – Atlanta Falcons

This is probably an overdue appearance for the Falcons’ rookie running back. He’s quietly flown under the radar due to his split load with Cordale Patterson, but has made the most of his opportunities, picking up tough yards and first downs.

Despite a slow start this week, where he only had one carry in the first quarter, he quickly found his rhythm, and despite finishing on the losing side in the game against the New Orleans Saints, he managed to have a career day. Finishing with 139 yards from 17 carries, Allgeier tore up the Saints defence at a rate of 8.2 yards per carry, converting eight first downs and forcing six missed tackles, leading to 100 of his 139 yards coming after contact. He also converted a touchdown and a 2-point conversion. Allgeier now sits at 743 yards, only 280 yards behind the Falcons rookie rushing record set by William Andrews in 1979. 

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Jahan Dotson, Wide Receiver – Washington Commanders

In the last three weeks, Dotson has played the Giants twice either side of a well-deserved bye week, and on both occasions, the continued evolution of the chemistry between him and Taylor Heinicke has been in full flow, and as such, Dotson has been able to showcase his ability to make highlight reel catches.

The rookie out of Penn State eclipsed 100 yards for the first time in his career, with the majority of them coming after a 61-yard catch that almost sparked a late-game tying drive. With the Commanders backed up at their own 9-yard line, Heinicke uncorked a deep shot that Dotson managed to haul in despite impressive coverage by the Giants’ Jason Pinnock. Finishing the game with four receptions for 105 yards and a touchdown, Dotson took his touchdown total to six for the season, only two behind the Commanders rookie franchise record held by Charlie Brown.

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5 things to look out for in Week 13

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A reunion in San Francisco and the 2022 AFC Championship Game rematch headline an entertaining Week 13 slate

1. Will Mike White keep the Jets flying?

Robert Saleh’s New York Jets made a successful QB change last week, beating Chicago after moving on from 2021 2nd overall pick Zach Wilson, in favour of Mike White.

White helped the Jets to their best offensive performance since Week 5, but it may be their defense that could give them the win against Minnesota on Sunday.

Kirk Cousins is having a sneaky good year and helped his team beat New England on Monday night, getting back to winning ways after the disappointing loss to Dallas.

2. Washington Commanders and New York Giants meet in first of two must-win division games

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Washington has won six of their last seven, and are looking like a completely different team since moving from Carson Wentz to Taylor Heinicke

The Commanders have gone from being in contention for the #1 overall pick to having a serious chance of making the postseason.

Up next are two crucial matchups against the New York Giants, either side of a bye week, whoever comes out of the series the best should be a playoff team.

3. Will the Titans hurt the Eagles?

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Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles put up an impressive offensive display against the Packers on Sunday night, bouncing back from two disappointing performances, after initially starting 8-0.

Now sat at 9-1, their toughest test may still be yet to come, as they welcome the Tennessee Titans to Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday.

The Titans are winning games like they always have under Mike Vrabel, by playing excellent defense and an unstoppable run game, that type of a threat can beat any team, especially late in the year. 

4. Mike McDaniel returns to San Francisco in the hunt for Dolphins first division title since 2008

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The most explosive offense in the league faces off against the best defense in what should be must-watch TV in Sunday’s late window.

Mike McDaniel has worked wonders for Tua Tagovailoa, restoring his confidence and coaching him from being a potential bust to a legitimate shot of winning MVP.

His Miami Dolphins offense has scored 30 or more points in four straight games, whilst San Francisco’s defense has only allowed over 30 once all season. 

5. Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs meet in AFC Championship rematch

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Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes meet again on Sunday, 10 months after the Bengals defeated the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.

Cincinnati may be without superstar wide receiver Jamarr Chase, and starting running back Joe Mixon for this one, a win without them would be a big statement.

Every game that Kansas City has scored over 20 points in this season, they’ve won, meaning that whilst their defense may be giving up yards, they’re great situationally. 

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Week 12: Rookie Standouts

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Thanksgiving week always brings us a feast of games, and this year was no different, with three exciting contests on Turkey Day itself. The weekend didn’t disappoint either, with multiple shock results and a couple of overtimes sprinkled in for good measure. Here are three rookies that stood out among the pack:

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Garrett Wilson, Wide Receiver – New York Jets

What a difference a week makes. After being frustrated by last week’s abysmal quarterback performance from Zach Wilson, there was a new man under centre this week, and Mike White was able to turn things around thanks in part to his main target, Garrett Wilson.

Wilson continued his stellar year by catching five passes for 95 yards and two touchdowns. His second touchdown, a 51-yard catch and run, was somewhat fortuitous as the Bears’ Eddie Jackson, who was covering Wilson, suffered a foot injury on the play, which put him on the ground; however, it was still an outstanding midair catch, and as they say, they all count. Wilson’s second score wrestled the lead back from the Bears just before halftime, and the Jets took care of the rest, shutting the Bears out in the second half.

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Brian Robinson, Running Back – Washington Commanders

Another week and another stellar performance from the Washington running back, who, along with Taylor Heinicke, has been a major part of the Commanders’ recent resurgence, and both players’ fortunes could be a major factor in a late playoff push for yet another NFC East team.

Robinson finished the day with 105 yards on 18 carries, including a long of 21 yards. He also had two catches on three targets for 20 yards and a touchdown. In the last three games, all wins for the Commanders Robinson has now recorded 248 rushing yards on 59 carries at an average of 4.2 yards per carry. With two upcoming games against the Giants, who allow the second-most yards per carry, Robinson will be confident in his ability to maintain his ground dominance.

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Trent McDuffie, Cornerback – Kansas City Chiefs

It’s safe to say that it’s been a fractured season for first-rounder Trent McDuffie. Following a hamstring injury in Week 1, the cornerback was placed on injured reserve before being activated at the start of November. Though it is highly unlikely that McDuffie will get close to a defensive rookie of the year nomination, it could very well be a case of what might have been.

Since his return, McDuffie has stayed mostly under the radar while playing some of the best football of any of the rookie cornerbacks. This past week, he only allowed two catches for 13 yards on six targets and had a pass breakup. In his four games since his return from injury, he’s been targeted 19 times and only allowed 10 receptions.

Honourable Mentions

Kayvon Thibodeaux (New York Giants), Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh Steelers), Jake Ferguson (Dallas Cowboys), Malcolm Rodriguez (Detroit Lions), Skyy Moore (Kansas City Chiefs)