Category: Philadelphia Eagles

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PICK SIX – Week 11

Returning to pick six more talking points from the latest week of NFL action, Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler discuss the Jaguars and Bills rebounding nicely, a banged-up Geno Smith, the faltering Chargers and the charging Lions, plus an intriguing Monday Night matchup between the top seeds in each conference.

Welcome back Trevor

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have been thrilled to deliver an offensive breakout when putting divisional rivals Tennessee to the sword. Despite their positive record, the Jags have stumbled on the offensive side of the ball for weeks now and were smarting from the beating they took at the hands of the 49ers last weekend. That can now be relegated to being “old news” after this week’s 34-14 win.

Trevor Lawrence looked composed and eliminated the mistakes that had been so costly last week. He didn’t turn the ball over and completed 75% of his passes for 262 yards and a couple of touchdowns. It was a particularly nice day for Calvin Ridley who was the recipient of both touchdown tosses. His 103 yards marks the third time he has reached three figures during the campaign but was the first time since early October.

The first Ridley touchdown was a beauty. He faded to the back corner of the end zone and Lawrence put the ball right on him. The sideline, however, was not Ridley’s friend and he had to show great footwork to get both feet down just inside the playing surface. The second was a similar concept via play action from the signal caller.

Lawrence also found success in the rushing game, again finding a pair of scores. He scrambled in from 9 yards to cap the opening drive of the third quarter and scored from 5 yards out in the fourth. The rest of the ground game saw a committee approach, with 30 totes of the rock divided between the three running backs. It complemented an all-round display that the Jags have been craving for weeks.

The defense continues to play at a decent level. They limited the Titans to just two of seven on third down plays and shut down Derrick Henry and the running game. We said last week that the Jaguars will need to raise their game to be considered a real threat come January. The Titans certainly aren’t the level of competition they will be expecting to come up against but as a tune-up game, this ticked the boxes nicely. [SB]

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Chargers gonna charger

LA Chargers fans start each season with optimism and belief. “This will be our year”, they say, every single time, but it never is. Their team either underwhelms or the wheels fall off completely. This year is no exception. As ever, they have the personnel on offense (Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler) plus an expensive defense containing Derwin James Jr., Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, yet 2023 is turning into another wobbly wheel kind of season.

Los Angeles now sit at 4-6, 13th in the AFC, and their chances of making the playoffs in a hyper-competitive conference are fading fast. The Brandon Staley era has reached a critical point and one suspects the next seven games (if not the next couple) might determine if his seat becomes too hot to return to next year. He was hired for his defensive knowledge yet his team consistently ranks among the worst in the league in points allowed (29th, 21st and 24th since 2020). In Sunday’s 23-20 loss to a poor Packers team, the unit continued to be the Achilles heel. Jordan Love was gifted the first 300-yard passing day of his career and until then, Green Bay had the second-longest active streak (27 games) without reaching that benchmark. 

Inevitably, there were mistakes, like a huge pass interference call against Asante Samuel Jr. that handed the Packers a first down in their game-winning drive. And there were injuries: a tearful DE Joey Bosa left the field on a cart in the first quarter with an ankle injury. It wasn’t all plain sailing on offense either. The usually reliable Keenan Allen dropped two potential TD passes while Austin Ekeler fumbled inside the 5. The Chargers came into this game with the second-best red-zone efficiency in the league but went 1-for-4 where it mattered most.

Of course, there were a few bright spots too. Tight end Stone Smartt rumbled in from 51 yards for his first career TD while Khalil Mack secured two sacks (11 for the season). Yet the Chargers still squandered opportunities and lost another one-score game. Five of their six losses have now been by three points or fewer and they’ve yet to beat a team over .500.

Having failed to win a division title since 2009, we’ve been here many times before, only this time, ownership might have seen enough. The franchise has only fired one coach during a season but Staley is doing his best to be the second. With a league-worst pass defense, it’s only fair that reporters question his play-calling in post-game pressers but he still defends himself to the hilt, albeit in an increasingly irritated way. Well, the Baltimore Ravens, the league’s second-highest scoring offense, come to SoFi Stadium this Sunday so let’s see what he has to say after that – if he’s still here, that is. [ST]

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Seahawks out on a limb

Geno Smith had an up-and-down day as the Seahawks let a lead slip against the LA Rams in what could be a costly 17-16 defeat. As seems to be the recent pattern, the Seattle offense started hot with Geno orchestrating an 88-yard touchdown drive. It culminated in an 8-yard toss to DK Metcalf on a simple slant route down low. The offense continued to move the ball, posting field goals on its next two drives. Those three possessions accumulated 193 yards of total offense; the next seven yielded just 38 more.

To be fair to Geno, though, he was absent for a couple of those drives. A big hit from Aaron Donald put him on the sidelines, forcing Drew Lock into action. It was a complete and utter disaster. His final stat line was a measly two completions for 3 yards from his six passing attempts, along with an interception. The play, an underthrown deep shot for Tyler Lockett, breathed further life into the Rams’ comeback. When Geno exited the game, the scoreboard read 16-7 in favour of Seattle. He returned after that interception with the Seahawks down by a point and just 1:31 on the clock.

He had “convinced” Pete Carroll that he was able to go back in the game and immediately showed he had enough arm strength. He connected with his favourite duo, hitting Tyler Lockett for 13 yards and then DK Metcalf for 21 yards, moving the Seahawks into field goal range. A helmet malfunction then led to a poor play call as, rather than throwing again to make the field goal attempt more manageable, Seattle elected for a run that only gained 2 yards. A spike later and it was all there for last week’s hero Jason Myers to take the glory again. Alas, he pushed the FG attempt wide to the right from 55 yards away.

The Seahawks have a rough schedule ahead – two games with the 49ers along with contests against the Cowboys and Eagles – so this loss could be a big one. They need to find consistency as these patchy performances are becoming all too common. What is abundantly clear is that Geno’s arm better be OK because if it isn’t, it’s Drew Lock season and you may as well stick a fork in them now. [SB]

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Lions taking pride in success

Only four teams – the Browns, Texans, Jaguars and Lions – have never reached the Super Bowl but if the season ended today, all four would qualify for the postseason. Among them, Detroit have never won the NFC North nor hosted a playoff game at Ford Field so the fact that they are 8-2 for the first time since 1962 is mightily impressive.

You’ve got a heart of stone if you’re not enjoying what’s going on in the Motor City, where Dan Campbell is among the front-runners for Coach of the Year and his team have become one of this season’s feel-good stories. On Sunday, stunned by four turnovers (including three INTs by Jared Goff), they looked out of sync and trailed the Chicago Bears by 12 points with four minutes left. For context, teams down by at least 10 points with four minutes remaining were 0-83 before Sunday.

The Lions defense allowed their opponents 334 yards and 25 first downs but tightened up just in time to let their offensive colleagues stage an improbable comeback. Goff suddenly rallied, leading his team to 17 points in the final quarter to salvage a 31-26 win, with David Montgomery nudging Detroit in front with a 1-yard TD run with just 29 seconds remaining. A walk-off strip-sack safety by Aidan Hutchinson sealed the deal, spoiling Justin Fields’ return from injury.

Detroit join the Eagles and Ravens as the only teams with at least eight wins on the board and they still have four winnable division games to come, plus the Saints, Broncos and Cowboys. They have long been known for having a soft underbelly but this was exactly the type of come-from-behind, never-say-die victory that will see the new-look, knee-biting Lions progress well into the postseason. And you certainly can’t begrudge their long-suffering fans the chance to experience that for a change. [ST]

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Chiefs stutter while Eagles soar

A Super Bowl rematch months in the making played out on Monday Night Football, but the result this time was different. The Eagles improve to an NFL-best 9-1 record while the Chiefs join a cluster of AFC teams with three defeats, throwing the conference race up in the air.

It was an all-too-familiar tale for Kansas City as their once-potent offense failed to ignite once more. A comfortable 10-point lead at the half was not enough as their six second-half possessions resulted in four punts and two turnovers (one on downs). The receiving core is a real concern as we head towards the postseason.

Marques Valdes-Scantling will be the name getting most criticism after a key drop on what would have been a potentially game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter. A dime was tossed by Patrick Mahomes as MVS flew passed Bradley Roby from the slot but he couldn’t reel the pass in. It completed a miserable night for the group as Justin Watson finished as KC’s leading receiver with just 53 yards.

The Chiefs defense once again held up its end of the bargain, limiting Jalen Hurts to just 150 yards through the air. It wasn’t enough though. The Eagles have become masters of winning games despite not playing particularly well and this was no different. Two Hurts rushing touchdowns, including the now seemingly obligatory 1-yarder, helped the Eagles complete the comeback and take the spoils 21-17.

The Eagles appear to be a class above in the NFC. You could make a case for the Lions or 49ers but week in and week out, it feels as though Philly will find a way (how on earth did they lose to Zach Wilson though?). The Chiefs, on the other hand, are heading for uncharted waters where the AFC may not run through Arrowhead for a change. One thing is for certain: they need to get this offense firing if they are going to be a serious threat to the Eagles should there be another rematch in a couple of months’ time. [SB]

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Brady’s bunch back on track

Last week, Buffalo’s offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was fired and quarterback Josh Allen admitted “our backs are against the wall, the clock’s ticking.” Well, just a few days into Joe Brady’s spell as interim OC, the Bills saw off the Jets 32-6 to post their first win in three weeks. Those 32 points were the most allowed by the Jets since 2021.

After an understandably slow start, with three field goals and a punt in their first four possessions, the offense came alive. Allen (275 yards, 3 TDs) hit five straight completions for 145 yards and two TDs, including an 81-yard bomb to Khalil Shakir. The win came despite more Bills’ defenders landing on the treatment table. With three starters already on IR, corners Dane Jackson and Taron Johnson both left the game with head injuries, and safety Taylor Rapp sustained a worrying neck injury. At least trade-deadline pick-up Rasul Douglas, who had two sacks and a fumble recovery, is still healthy.

When all is said and done, all victories are equal: they are each worth one W. But what does beating this abject Jets team really mean? On a day when Gang Green went 0-for-11 on third downs, allowed six sacks and managed only 155 total yards, Zach Wilson was benched late in the third quarter in favour of QB3 Tim Boyle. Wilson (7-of-15, 81 yards) was awful; he didn’t even complete a pass to a wide receiver. (Heck, even punter Thomas Morstead completed an 18-yard pass for a first down on a fake punt, kickstarting their first successful touchdown drive in a staggering 41 attempts!) Post-game, Robert Saleh wouldn’t commit to naming his starter for the Black Friday game against the AFC East-leading Dolphins but by Monday night, Wilson had been demoted beneath both Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian. Ouch.

As for the Bills, much stiffer tests lie in wait, with trips to Philadelphia and Kansas City coming up either side of a bye week. If they’re going to make the playoffs, Brady’s offense will need to repeat this level of performance against teams of a higher calibre than the New York Jesters. [ST]

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PICK SIX – Week 8

With no teams on a bye, Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season was jam-packed with talking points. Alas, one half of our regular team, Shaun Blundell, was unavailable for selection this week, leaving Sean Tyler to pick six of them to discuss in more detail. He remembered to change the clocks and didn’t miss a thing so read on for tales of a shock loss for the Chiefs, a tsunami of QB injuries, a terrible New York ‘derby’ and a monster debut for Will Levis.  

New York, New York, so bad they named it twice  

The co-tenants of New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium, the Jets and Giants, met in a key battle for a much-needed win and local bragging rights. Although the Jets eventually prevailed, winning a 13-10 OT game in steady rain, I don’t think either team has much to brag about.  

OK, maybe that’s a bit harsh. For the now 2-6 Giants, Saquon Barkley did at least look like he was trying, with a career-high 36 carries for 134 yards. On the other side of the ball, the defense was outstanding for 59-and-a-half minutes. Kayvon Thibodeaux in particular was a game-wrecker, with three sacks, three tackles for loss, three quarterback hits and a forced fumble. As for the eventually victorious Jets, Breece Hall had a nice 50-yard TD reception. Other than that, nope. I got nuthin’.

None of us wanted more than 60 minutes of this Mess-at-MetLife but still, we had to endure endless errors, sloppy play and poor coaching decisions. Where do I start? The fact that these two teams combined for more punts (24) than points (23) tells you everything you need to know. The only reason this can’t be classed as a dumpster fire is because it was raining too heavily.

With Daniel Jones already out for Big Blue, his deputy Tyrod Taylor sustained a rib injury during a sack midway through the second quarter. Taylor went 4 of 7 for 8 yards before undrafted practice squad rookie Tommy DeVito entered the fray. They clearly didn’t trust him to throw the ball as the Giants ran the ball on 33 of their 34 second-half plays, which included a rushing TD by DeVito himself. They ended the game with a historically bad -9 net passing yards, punted 13 times and converted just two of 19 third downs.

Nonetheless, their opponents were no better and after trading eight consecutive punts, the Giants looked to be snoozing their way to victory. Thibodeaux’s final takedown of Zach Wilson, which gave his team the ball at the Jets’ 26-yard line with 1:26 to play and a 10-7 lead, all but iced the game. But after three Barkley runs for a total of nine yards, Brian Daboll opted to send out kicker Graham Gano on the ensuing 4th-and-1. In missing for the second time during the game, he left the door to a unlikely Jets victory slightly ajar. They pushed it and stepped through.

With 24 seconds left and no timeouts remaining, Zach Wilson connected with Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard on consecutive 29-yard passes before rushing to spike the ball with just one second on the clock. Greg Zuerlein’s 35-yard field goal sent the game to overtime. Without a trusted QB, the fast-unravelling Giants inevitably went three-and-out and after the Jets reached midfield on their first possession in OT, a 30-yard defensive pass interference penalty by Adoree’ Jackson moved them into the red zone. Once again, Zuerlein split the uprights to give the 4-3 Jets a third consecutive win they barely deserved. [ST]

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Broncos buck the trend

Just two weeks ago, I wrote about Kansas City beating Denver 19-8, about how well Travis Kelce played and about how they’d won 16 in a row against their AFC West rivals, despite not firing on all cylinders. Well, a fortnight on, the Broncos turned the tables on their divisional foes in the reverse fixture, winning 24-9 and beating Patrick Mahomes for the first time.

Ranked 31st in points allowed and dead last in yards allowed, Vance Joseph’s Denver D unexpectedly kept Mahomes, Kelce and company out of the end zone, holding them to just three field goals. Mahomes, who began the day on the injury report with a dose of the flu, must have been under the weather. He had no touchdowns, three turnovers – two pretty poor INTs and a fumble – and got sacked three times. Kelce led the Chiefs with just 58 receiving yards, not just on Sunday but weirdly the last time they lost to Denver (way back in Week 2, 2015). Also noteworthy is that he’s averaging 46.5 yards when Taylor Swift isn’t in attendance, like this week, and 108 when she is. Go figure.

But it wasn’t just Mahomes and Kelce who looked off-colour. Marquez Valdes-Scantling gave away a fumble, Skyy Moore dropped a crucial TD pass and Mecole Hardman muffed a punt on his own 5-yard line in the fourth quarter, which inevitably led to the Broncos’ third and decisive TD.

The Broncos defense definitely won the day but the offense ate the clock up and did just about enough, despite the KC pass rush sacking Russell Wilson six times. Running the ball 40 times allowed Dange’Russ to be effective in the passing game when called on. He may have only thrown 12 of 19 for a measly 114 yards but he still managed to find Javonte Williams, Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton for touchdowns with a quarter of his completions. And unlike his counterpart, there were no picks to blot his copybook.

Albeit sitting at 3-5, the Broncos now enter their bye week with back-to-back wins, giving them at least some hope for the rest of the campaign, especially with the Raiders and Chargers also stuck on three wins. As for the Chiefs, they travel to Germany to face the Dolphins (also 6-2) in a battle of the top two AFC seeds. To get something from that game in Frankfurt, they’ll need a healthy Mahomes… and maybe a plane ticket for Ms. Swift. [ST]

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Once you strop, you just can’t stop

I’ve always told my kids that tantrums don’t get you what you want and to a large degree, that holds true. But there are exceptions, like when the Eagles’ star wideout AJ Brown threw his toys out of the pram in Week 2, complaining that he wasn’t getting enough of the ball. Well, since his well-documented sideline hissy-fit, he has been unstoppable. Brown now has produced six consecutive games with at least 125 receiving yards, which breaks the league record previously held by the great Calvin Johnson.

Week after week, he makes highlight-reel-worthy catches, trucks defenders and finds pay dirt, and this week was no exception. He racked up 130 yards and two touchdowns on eight receptions in Philadelphia’s 38-31 win over the Washington Commanders as he helped his QB Jalen Hurts to 319 passing yards and four TDs. It also doesn’t hurt that he now has another big-bodied receiver, Julio Jones, alongside him to draw some of the attention away.

Brown has amassed 60 catches for 939 yards and five TDs for the now 7-1 Eagles, although he still trails Miami’s Tyreek Hill in all categories so far (61 catches, 1,014 yards and 8 TDs). But with nine regular season games left, these two are surely in the race for Offensive Player of the Year honours – and who knows, maybe even MVP if their trajectories continue to soar.

Looking back to draft weekend 2022, GM Howie Roseman might also be worthy of the trade of the year award, if there were such a thing, for dealing the 18th and 101st picks to Tennessee for the 24-year-old receiver. [ST]

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Bengals begin to bite back

After a 0-2 start, Bengals fans hoped they’d turn a corner once the statuesque Joe Burrow healed up, just like last year (appendectomy). And in facing the 49ers in Santa Clara this weekend, they also hoped for a trajectory-setting win coming off their bye, just like last year (a 37-30 victory over the Steelers). Well, it appears that 2023 is the new 2022 and their wishes have come true. Cincinnati’s franchise quarterback seems mobile again and they registered their fourth win in five to go 4-3. The 31-17 result leaves the Niners nursing their first home loss in 12 games and QB Brock Purdy contemplating his first-ever home defeat, despite a career-high 365 passing yards.

Make no mistake: even as four-point underdogs, Cincy’s two-score victory wasn’t perfect. For the Niners, CMC posted 118 total yards and two touchdowns, equalling the NFL record of 17 consecutive games with a TD. George Kittle threatened to make it a George Kittle game (149 receiving yards from nine catches were both season highs) and even Brandon Aiyuk’s five catches went for 109 yards. Burrow was also sacked three times. But with their bend-but-don’t-break approach, they conceded yards but not points. Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt handed Purdy his second consecutive multi-interception game and despite sustaining an ankle injury, Trey Hendrickson soldiered on to claim another sack, taking his season’s tally to eight. 

That was enough to let a rejuvenated Cincinnati offense do its thing at long last. Ja’Marr Chase (100 receiving yards, 1 TD) was impressive once again, Tee Higgins was more involved after a recent rib injury and Joe Mixon (110 scrimmage yards, 1 TD) had his best game of the season. But the Bengals’ fortunes live and die by their franchise quarterback. While nursing a dodgy calf, Burrow was undoubtedly poor. As he healed, he improved and after a week’s rest, he’s seemingly back to his best, carving up the Niners like a pumpkin. His 283 passing yards, three passing TDs and no INTs included a series of 19 straight completions and his 87% completion rate (28 of 32) is the highest recorded against the 49ers in their entire history. The aerial onslaught was complemented by 43 on the ground through quarterback draws, sneaks and off-script scrambles, the likes of which we haven’t seen this year due to his injury, as well as the greatest escapolgy act we’ve seen so far this season.

Looking ahead, San Francisco take a much-needed week off, which should help them reset after three straight losses and get the likes of Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams back on the field. Meanwhile, the Bengals push on to a Sunday Night showdown with the Bills. Much has been made of Cincy’s tough schedule from here on in but if Joe Burrow is as dialled in as he was this week, it’s gonna be one hell of a game.  [ST]

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Will Levis be the answer?

From Levi’s Stadium to Will Levis…

“Not a bad debut,” said master of understatement Mike Vrabel. “He was ballin’, playing out of his mind,” stated Derrick Henry. As for Levis himself, he said “I dreamed of this moment as a kid and to get a win is incredible.”

In place of the injured Ryan Tannehill, the Tennessee Titans rookie quarterback put on an absolute show in a 28-23 victory over the Atlanta Falcons. In his first career start, Levis completed 19 of 29 passes for 238 yards and four touchdowns (one in each quarter of the game) and no picks. In so doing, he joins Marcus Mariota and Fran Tarkenton as the only players in NFL history with four-plus touchdown passes in their NFL debut.

Resplendent in a light blue throwback Oilers uniform, Levis turned back the clock to before the franchise moved east, when the great Warren Moon orchestrated Houston’s offense. Suiting Tim Kelly’s vertical offense perfectly, Levis showed off his cannon of an arm, hitting three TDs of 30-plus yards – the most ever in an NFL debut. All three are now among the 10 longest touchdowns by air distance this season, per Next Gen Stats. It’s also noteworthy that the 6’4” QB was only sacked twice. He can obviously move in the pocket, unlike Tannehill and the other backup, Malik Willis, who seems to have slipped down the pecking order.

It’s a short week for the Titans, who next play on Thursday night in Pittsburgh. The Steelers defense will be more of a challenge than the Falcons were but even a half-decent showing could see the rookie keep the job. His inconsistencies at Kentucky divided opinion when coming out of college but the second-round draft pick has already thrown twice as many TD passes this season than Tannehill (just two in six games). It’s therefore no surprise that Coach Vrabel has already indicated that he will re-evaluate the role once the veteran QB is fully healthy. The clock on Tannehill’s time in Tennessee is ticking louder than ever. [ST]

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Quarterback carnage

Blood. Bandages. Broken body parts. No, I’m not talking about a Halloween fancy dress party, I’m summarising the state of starting quarterbacks after a particularly destructive Week 8 slate.

Arguably the highest profile and most damaging of the injuries on Sunday was the season-ending Achilles tear sustained by Vikings QB Kirk Cousins in the fourth quarter against Green Bay. Now enamoured to many of us through the Quarterback series on Netflix, Cousins had completed 23 passes for 274 yards and two TDs when he went down, leaving rookie Jaren Hall to see the Vikes over the line with three completions for 23 yards in his NFL debut. Despite the 24-10 win, With Cousins’ time in Minnesota probably up now, the team now faces the long-term trilemma of letting Hall continue under center, hoping veteran Nick Mullens can return from a back injury or going shopping before Tuesday’s trade deadline. Andy Dalton or Jameis Winston, anyone?

The New York Giants are also down to the bare bones in the QB room. With Daniel Jones still out with a neck injury, Big Blue have been relying on Tyrod Taylor of late but he got knocked out of Sunday’s game with the Jets with a rib injury that needed hospital attention. Once again, an untested rookie, Tommy DeVito, was called into action. Alas, he completed just two passes for -1 yard and Gang Green stole an OT 13-10 victory, as detailed earlier. The Steelers’ Kenny Pickett (10 completions for 73 yards) also sustained a rib injury in the second quarter of their game against Jacksonville. Coming shortly after a hamstring injury to Minkah Fitzpatrick, it left too much for Mitch Trubisky to compensate for. The stand-in QB mustered 15 passes for 138 yards and a TD, but he also gave away two INTs in a 20-10 loss.

And there’s more. Rams QB Matthew Stafford injured the thumb on his throwing hand twice in their 43-20 loss to Dallas, first during a Micah Parsons sack and then when he hit it against an opponent’s helmet during a two-point attempt shortly after halftime. Brett Rypien (5 of 10 for 42 yards) deputised from then on but it was never going to be.

The Atlanta Falcons also played half a game with stand-in Taylor Heinicke after Desmond Ridder was evaluated for concussion (but cleared to return) in their 28-23 defeat to the Titans. Ridder led his team to just three points, lost a league-leading 12th fumble of the season, took five sacks and threw for just 71 yards before his departure. HC Arthur Smith later confirmed that Ridder’s removal wasn’t performance-based but his choice of starter going forward might well be, given that the team mustered 20 points with Ridder’s deputy. [ST]

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PICK SIX – Week 6

Wow, we’re a third of the way through the regular season already. Doesn’t time fly when Travis Kelce is impressing Taylor Swift, the Browns are beating the Niners and Cooper Kupp is doing Cooper Kupp things again? Anyway, here are the thoughts of Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler on these and some other talking points from the Week 6 slate.

Sweet 16 for Kelce and co.

A day after the premiere of her new concert movie, pop diva Taylor Swift returned to the corporate boxes at Arrowhead Stadium – resplendent in a Red Chiefs jacket – to watch her beau, tight end Travis Kelce, star in a 19-8 win over the Broncos. This was KC’s 16th successive victory against their AFC West rivals. The Last Time Denver won, in 2015, Peyton Manning led them to the Super Bowl.

Patrick Mahomes only threw one touchdown pass and also had an ugly red-zone INT, his fifth turnover of the season. Isiah Pacheco was a solid threat (62 rushing, 36 receiving), rookie Rashee Rice snagged four for 72 and Kadarius Toney reeled in the Chiefs’ only TD. Harrison Butker also took some of the limelight, hitting four FGs including a 60-yarder.

But once again, it was very much the Travis Kelce show. His bad ankle was heavily strapped but he was able to Shake It Off, hauling in all nine of his targets for 124 yards. Exploiting Denver’s zone coverage, he personally outgained his opponents 109-94 in the first half on the way to his 36th 100-yard game (extending his own NFL record) and his sixth against the Broncos. He’s a bit of an Anti-Hero at times but you can’t deny that he is The Man.

We mustn’t forget that the Kansas City defense also played their part. They held Denver to 197 total yards and restricted Russell Wilson to 13 completions, with two interceptions and five sacks. Courtland Sutton (46) was the only Denver receiver with more than 16 receiving yards as Sean Payton was six minutes away from his first career shut-out. Yet somehow, trailing 16-0 in the fourth, Denver made it a one-score game when Sutton caught an 11-yard TD pass with some Style.

Remember, their lacklustre opponents shipped 70 points a fortnight ago so the Chiefs do need to improve offensively. Their inability to turn red-zone trips into touchdowns nearly cost them but luckily, you don’t have to be that good to beat Denver at the moment. And it helps if you have a Travis Kelce on your roster. The Mastermind behind it all, HC Andy Reid, also had an off-night, opting to kick or fake punt on short fourth downs when the Mahomes–Kelce connection was obviously humming.

Still, good teams find a way to win even when they’re not playing at their best and that seems to be the case with KC. This was their second sub-20 score of the season but they still covered the 10.5-point spread (just), progressed to 5-1 and tightened their grip on the top seed in the AFC. Based on recent history, we know All Too Well how this story ends. [ST]

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Browns solve the Brock Purdy conundrum

The Browns needed a brilliant defensive display on Sunday to stand any chance of beating the San Francisco 49ers heading into the weekend. They got it – and then some – in grinding out a 19-17 victory. The Browns defense has started the year like a juggernaut and after the latest win, they became the stingiest unit through five weeks in over 50 years, giving up 1,002 total yards in that span.

Niners QB Brock Purdy was harassed all day. He seemingly looked out of rhythm throughout as the Browns pass rush consistently applied pressure. The box score will only say three sacks but there were a further six QB hits and five tackles for loss recorded. Special credit goes to defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson who was seemingly deeper in the backfield than the 49ers running backs for most of the afternoon. 

Purdy completed just 44% of his passes for a mere 125 yards and threw his first interception of the season for good measure. It’s the lowest output for a Kyle Shanahan-led San Francisco team – that’s how special this Browns defensive performance was – after the Niners scored 42 against Dallas and put up 30-plus points in every game this campaign.

A lot will be made about Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel leaving the contest through injury. CMC had already scored his now-compulsory touchdown on the opening drive when he bagged 45 total yards. His final stat line read 11 carries for 43 yards so yes, he logged eight more carries for -2 yards after the opening drive. He left the game late in the third quarter.

Yes, Deebo was a big miss too but before we make too many excuses for the 49ers, let’s not forget about what the Browns were dealing with. No Deshaun Watson. No Nick Chubb. No Jack Conklin. And for the first time in his career, no Joel Bitonio. The deck was stacked against Cleveland but they had just enough from stand-in QB PJ Walker and company on offense to keep the game close. Walker was only sacked twice the whole day, Amari Cooper reeled in four grabs for 108 yards and the committee approach on the ground yielded 160 rushing yards. So if the Browns offense can get healthy, they have the luxury of playing with the best defense in football. [SB]

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Gang Green scalp the last of the unbeatens

After the Niners’ loss, we were left with just one undefeated team – the 5-0 Eagles – but by the end of Sunday night, the last 100% record in the NFL had also come crashing down. But Philly’s 20-14 defeat wasn’t just their first loss of the campaign; it was also their first loss to the Jets ever.

Despite their unblemished record, Philly haven’t been firing on all cylinders this season but have still found a way to win every week. But not this time. There were too many mistakes offensively and the Jets D came to play. They held the Eagles’ run game in check (Kenneth Gainwell posted just 13 rushing yards and D’Andre Swift ran for 18) and also restricted Jalen Hurts to 28 of 45 for 280 yards, one rushing TD and one TD pass. In playing Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and now Hurts, the 3-3 Jets have allowed three TD passes but had eight interceptions. Hats off to HC Robert Saleh and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich.

The one bright spot for the Eagles’ attack was AJ Brown, who made hay without corners Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed patrolling the New York backfield. His seven catches for 131 yards means he’s posted four consecutive 120-yard games, which makes you wonder why he only got three targets after halftime. In fact, the whole Eagles team seemed to switch off in the second half, having led 14-9 at the break. Their fruitless second-half drives ended punt, punt, interception, missed FG, interception and turnover on downs, and only one went further than 35 yards.

While much of Jalen Hurts’ troubles came through Haason Reddick (two sacks, two tackles for loss) and Bryce Huff (1.5 sacks, nine QB pressures), it was those three interceptions from Quinnen Williams, Bryce Hall and Tony Adams that proved decisive. CJ Mosley also picked up a fumble by Swift. In being handed the ball back four times, New York scored 11 points. That defined the result in a game where Philly outgained their opponents by 100 yards, allowed fewer sacks, gave away fewer penalties and were much more efficient on third down. And other than a Breece Hall rushing TD and Randall Cobb two-point conversion, the only points they gave up came from Greg Zuerlien’s boot.

But for all that, it was the giveaways that killed the Eagles. If they’re going to keep their lofty perch at the top of the NFC, they’ll have to iron out such flaws from their game. Next week’s opponents, Miami, will really make them pay if they don’t. [ST]

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Jags pass the London test

The Jacksonville Jaguars are effectively known as “London’s team” because of their long-standing commitment to playing games in the UK. The International Series will go down as a roaring success once more with great ticket sales and viewership – the two things the league will care about. The big question this season was how would an NFL team respond to playing back-to-back games overseas without a bye week to come home to? 

The Jags completed their London double-header last week by taking down the Bills. But this week was probably the bigger test: how would Jacksonville respond when they returned across the Atlantic? A defensive takeaway and two offensive touchdowns in the opening four series has to go down as a pretty good start. With just over three minutes to go in the third quarter, the score was Jacksonville 31, Indianapolis 6. Game, set and match.

The Jaguars forced four turnovers on the day, including picking off Gardner Minshew three times and forcing a fumble against their old QB to boot. The 37-20 win was powered by defense and special teams, with 17 points coming from those turnovers (20 if you want to include the additional three via a turnover on downs late in the game). The Jags made Indy abandon the running game, which had led to their success against the Titans a week ago. The combination of Zack Moss and Jonathan Taylor were limited to a measly 40 yards on a combined 15 carries.

Jacksonville looked sluggish out of the gates this season but the London trip was described three weeks ago by Doug Pederson as “hitting us at the right time”. His analysis certainly seems spot on. [SB]

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Can the backups step up?

This season, we’ve already seen a few QB injuries. Aaron Rodgers ruptured his Achilles four plays into the season, Joe Burrow has been struggling with a gammy calf, Deshaun Watson hasn’t suited up for the Browns in a couple of weeks and the Colts are currently riding with Gardner Minshew while Anthony Richardson contemplates season-ending surgery on his shoulder. And on Sunday, two more gunslingers went down, making their respective teams’ seasons all the more challenging.      

According to most pre-season pundits, the Las Vegas Raiders (now 3-3) were never going to tear up any trees this year but if they are without Jimmy Garoppolo for any length of time, their campaign will be even tougher sledding than expected. Jimmy G left the Raiders’ game with the Patriots in the first half after suffering a back injury, and was eventually taken to a local hospital for further tests. That left journeyman backup Brian Hoyer to pick up the pieces with the score at 13-3. Despite only throwing 6 of 10 for 102 yards and no TDs, at least he didn’t give away the ball, and eventually steered his team to a 21-17 victory.  

For all his limitations, at least we’ve all heard of Hoyer. When Chicago’s Justin Fields left Sunday’s game with Minnesota with a dislocated thumb after a Danielle Hunter sack, in stepped Tyson Bagent. Have you heard of him? Nope, me neither. The undrafted rookie immediately gave away a sack fumble that Jordan Hicks returned for a pick six. He did score a 1-yard rushing TD in the fourth to make it a one-score game but the newbie was picked off later, as the Bears slumped to a 19-13 loss.

Fields’ season so far has been a bit of a rollercoaster. After two great games against Denver and Washington, Bad Justin reappeared. Before his third-quarter injury, he was just 6 of 10 for 58 yards and an INT. Whether Bagent takes the reins in Chicago for an extended period of time depends on the results of an MRI but given the level of inconsistency at the position, this 1-5 team should be looking to draft a quarterback next year anyway. If the Bears select a Caleb Williams or a Drake Maye, it will push Bagent back down the pecking order (if they keep him at all) so what more motivation does he need to put some film together while he has the chance?

Next week, the Raiders and Bears face off at Soldier Field so with both teams potentially forced to employ stand-in QBs, each may feel that it’s the perfect time to play the other. [ST]

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Cream of the Kupp

Puka Nacua rightly made all the headlines in the opening weeks of the Rams’ season. Cooper Kupp, however, showed exactly why he has been the league’s leading receiver in recent years with a brilliant display in the LA Rams’ 26-9 victory over the Arizona Cardinals. Kupp was the star turn in a performance that saw Los Angeles rack up 23 unanswered points, fighting back to an even .500 record while dropping their divisional foes to 1-5.

The biggest play of the day for Kupp sprung the Rams into life after a pretty anaemic first half. With no timeouts remaining and the length of the field ahead of them, Matthew Stafford dropped a dime right into the bucket of his star man for 49 yards. This allowed LA to kick a field goal to close out the half. It was nothing more than a simple go route where Kupp accelerated past the coverage and bizarrely, the Cardinals did not have any help over the top.

On the first possession of the second half, the Rams put together a scoring drive covering 10 plays, culminating in Kupp’s first receiving touchdown of the campaign. Again, it was Kei’Trel Clark who was beaten in coverage as Stafford found Kupp at the right pylon. The Rams never looked back. Kupp finished the day with seven catches for 148 yards and the aforementioned touchdown, making up over 65% of the Rams’ total passing attack on the day. 

It was a second half in particular where the Rams leaned heavily on the run so special praise should also be heaped on Kyren Williams who had himself a career day (20 carries, 158 rushing yards and a TD). With that said, when the chips were down, it was always Kupp who had his number called. With a chance to put the game away in the fourth quarter, the Rams faced 2nd-and-17. Two passing plays later, we’d seen two Cooper Kupp receptions and 29 yards gained. He is Mr Reliable and it’s safe to say the main man is back in town. [SB]

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PICK SIX – Week 4

Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season is now in the books and Sean Tyler is back to pick six more things worthy of discussion and dissection (while Shaun Blundell spends his bye week taking in the first of this season’s International Series games). But enough of the preamble. David Montgomery, Khalil Mack, Mac Jones, the Super Bowl favourites, Lamar Jackson and the battling Denver Broncos: you have my attention!

David finally slays his Goliath

Cast your minds back a couple of years to October 2021. Sealing a 24-14 win over the Bears at Soldier Field, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers ran in a late TD, then turned to the crowd and yelled “I own you! I still own you!” It was unnecessarily provocative but factually correct, as he’d just secured Green Bay a 20th win in 23 encounters.

That day, Bears RB David Montgomery was on IR but during his four years there, he lost all seven matchups against the Cheeseheads. But things are different now. In the offseason, he moved 400 miles due west to Detroit – another divisional foe – and on Thursday night, at Lambeau Field, the Lions won 34-20, their fourth straight win against Green Bay. Montgomery finally beat his old nemesis and while Rodgers himself was no longer there, I bet the taste of victory was no less sweet.

He was undoubtedly the workhorse of the game, carrying the rock 32 times – the most by any player this season – for 121 yards. He also rumbled into the paint for a career-best three touchdowns, from 3, 2 and 1 yard out, and had two catches for 20 yards for good measure.

Sure, his average (3.8 yards) suggests volume over efficiency but it was one hell of an effort, considering he missed last week’s game against Atlanta with a thigh injury and was questionable for this one. “To come out here with these guys and get the dub, that’s big for me,” he told reporters. “I can now tell my son that I beat the Packers!”

Another new experience for the former Iowa State man is sitting on top of the NFC North. Chicago never finished higher than second when he was there and the Lions haven’t won the division for 30 years. So after two big road victories (having won the season opener at Arrowhead), you can’t begrudge the 3-1 Lions – and especially Montgomery – their lofty perch. [ST]

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The cream always rises to the top

Before the season, the four teams with the shortest Super Bowl odds were the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers and Eagles. Well, whaddya know: Kansas City and Buffalo are up at the top of the AFC standings at 3-1 while in the NFC, San Francisco and Philadelphia are the only two teams in the league with a 100% record.

After wobbly starts on the opening weekend, the Bills and Chiefs have rediscovered their mojo. Buffalo lost 22-16 to the Jets on the first MNF of the season but have since despatched the Raiders, Commanders and Dolphins while scoring 123 points. This weekend’s 48-20 destruction of Miami was a Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs masterclass, with Allen posting four passing TDs, an 11-yard rushing score and a perfect 158.3 passer rating. The main beneficiary was Diggs, who totalled 120 yards and caught three of those TD passes. Suffice to say, the Bills are looking scarily good right now and should put on a show for UK fans this Sunday.

The Chiefs also bounced back from an opening-day defeat to the Lions with wins over Jacksonville and Chicago, and then eeked out a 23-20 victory over the Jets in Sunday’s late game. They built a 17-0 lead, on the back of a 115-yard/1 TD rushing performance from Isiah Pacheco but two uncharacteristic INTs from Patrick Mahomes at least made it interesting. Nonetheless, the big red machine marches on and they currently sit where you’d expect: top seed in the AFC.

In the other conference, the Niners have looked imperious, scoring exactly 30 in wins over the Steelers, Rams and Giants before seeing off the Cardinals 35-16 this weekend. Unsurprisingly, the stars of the show were once again Brock Purdy (20 of 21 for 283), Brandon Aiyuk (148 receiving yards) and the irrepressible Christian McCaffrey. As well as rushing for 106 yards and 3 TDs, he also made seven catches for 71 yards and another tuddy. Run CMC’s 459 rushing yards this season put him almost 100 ahead of his nearest rival already.

Matching them win for win are the Eagles, carrying on from last season’s Super Bowl run with barely a blip, despite changing both offensive and defensive coordinators. After Ws over the Patriots, Vikings and Buccaneers, they needed OT to see off a spirited Commanders side this weekend. Luckily, AJ Brown (175 receiving yards, 2 TDs) was in the mood and Philly stay undefeated with a 34-31 victory.

So, there you have it. It’s a little demoralising for the other 28 franchises to see the usual contenders setting the pace already but if you had a flutter on one of them to go all the way, you’re probably feeling pretty chuffed so far. Let’s see if they can keep up the pace. [ST]

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Lamar: last man standing in the North

The general consensus is that the AFC North is the NFL’s most competitive division this year. The Bengals had won back-to-back titles, signed Joe Burrow to a historically large contract and brought in Orlando Brown Jr to sure up the O-line. The Ravens signed Lamar Jackson to a mega-deal, picked up Odell Beckham Jr off the street and got all their guys back after two years blighted by injuries. With Myles Garrett and Za’Davius Smith in their ranks, Cleveland are by far the strongest of the four defensively and, as we like to say here at F10Y headquarters, “the Steelers won the offseason” so even their tails were up.

But a month is a long time in football and after just four games, it’s all starting to unravel for three of these teams.

Let’s get the big one out of the way first: the 1-3 Bengals are absolutely awful this season! At the bottom of almost every metric you can think of, the offense is (if you’ll excuse the mixed metaphors) clearly hamstrung by Burrow’s calf injury. He’s almost immobile in the pocket, which makes him a sitting duck. With just three TDs in four games, two outings with only a field goal to show for their efforts, including Sunday’s 27-3 loss to the Titans, and a suddenly leaky defense that let Derrick Henry rumble for 122 yards, run in a score and throw a TD pass as well(!), you can make a solid case for them being the worst team in the league at the moment.

So, to Pittsburgh, now 2-2. Kenny Pickett amassed 15 of 23 for 114 yards and an INT before leaving the field during their 30-6 loss at the Houston Texans with a knee injury. And their defense let the improving Texans rack up 451 yards of offense. For now at least, they contemplate life with backup Mitch Trubisky flinging the pigskin, which surely can’t be a good thing, can it?

And what of the 2-2 Browns? Their defense is, as expected, a force to be reckoned with but again, offensively, there are issues. Nick Chubb’s ghastly knee injury a couple of weeks ago left their running game severely weakened for the rest of the year and on Sunday, Watson was replaced by debutant Dorian Thompson-Robinson due to a shoulder injury. The rookie stand-in completed 19 of 36 for 121 yards, threw 3 INTs and his team scored just three points in a 28-3 humbling by Baltimore. Room for improvement there, for sure, but at least they have a bye week to help them reset.

The 3-1 Ravens are not without their own injury woes, with their left tackle and two receivers missing on Sunday. But they are at least the last of the four teams with a fully fit starting QB… and it’s Lamar Jackson. On Sunday, he ran in two TDs, threw for two more (both to Mark Andrews) and only had four incompletions all day. So it seems whoever’s missing from their ranks, Jackson can still carry the team on his back.

As expected, it’s been attritional and much of it hasn’t been pretty, with the Bengals sinking, the Steelers struggling and the Browns regressing. And unless something changes quickly, the AFC North already looks like its Baltimore’s to lose. So much for competitive. [ST]

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Return of the Mack

The LA Chargers gave up at least 24 points in their first three games and Joey Bosa was sidelined for Sunday’s clash with the Raiders. So was rookie QB Aiden O’Connell – making his first start for Las Vegas in place of Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion) – going to get an easy ride of it? Not on your nelly.

Step forward 32-years-young Khalil Mack. The edge rusher posted double-digit sacks every year from 2015 to 2018 (with Oakland and Chicago), but his team needed him to wind back the clock and regain that kind of game-changing form. And boy, did he prove he can still bring the heat. Mack recorded all six of his team’s sacks, only one short of tying the NFL’s single-game record set by Derrick Thomas in 1990. In so doing, he joins Thomas as the only other player with multiple games with five-plus sacks. Mack now goes straight to the top of the current NFL sack race, joining (the other) Josh Allen and TJ Watt with half a dozen each.

Terrorising the team that drafted him back in 2014, Mack was a one-man wrecking crew who just couldn’t be contained. Coming off both sides like a heat-seeking missile, he also logged nine tackles, five tackles for loss, 10 QB pressures and seven QB hits, giving O’Connell a torrid debut. To say Mack’s sack attack was pivotal to the Bolts securing a 24-17 win is definitely the understatement of the week.

As HC Brandon Staley said afterwards, “He’d been close to having three monster games. Today, he put it all together. This guy’s one of the best edge players of his generation. He’s still that guy.” [ST]

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The comeback kids

Those of you who watch Red Zone on DAZN/Game Pass will be familiar with the Witching Hour. That’s the point, late in the 6pm Sunday window, when Scott Hanson tells us, in his scariest Halloween voice, “it’s the time when wins become losses, and losses become wins”.

Well, you can tell we’re in October already because there was something spooky going on this Sunday. Take the clash between the Rams and Colts, for example. It all seemed plain sailing for Los Angeles, who took a 23-0 lead midway through the third quarter. But once Scott had delivered his line, the witches cast their spells.

A 35-yard TD pass from Indy QB Anthony Richardson to tight end Moe Ali-Cox and a 2-point conversion: 23-8. Then, a missed field goal by the Rams’ Brett Maher followed by a 1-yard rushing TD by Richardson: 23-15. A short TD pass to Andrew Ogletree and another 2-point conversion: 23-23! Frustratingly, once parity was reached, the teams traded punts, the comeback stalled and OT was needed. The Rams finally prevailed, with that man Puka Nacua getting his first TD of a standout debut season, but the Colts deserve a lot of credit for their supernatural 23-point comeback.

Then there was the game between the winless Bears and Broncos. Chicago had built up a 28-7 lead with less than half a minute left in the third quarter so again, enough for a first win of the season, surely? You’d have thought so but no sooner had “when wins become losses” been uttered, the momentum switched and the Broncos went on a stampede.

With 20 seconds left of Q3, Russell Wilson connected with Brandon Johnson for a 4-yard TD. The Bears punted their next possession away and Denver roared back on a 12-play, 70-yard drive that culminated in a Courtland Sutton score. The ensuing Chicago drive ended with a sack fumble of Justin Fields, which Jonathon Harris returned for six. The 21-point deficit was erased in about 8 minutes, and there was still time for the Bears to hand the ball over yet again after a failed 4th-and-1. One magnificent 48-yard play by Marvin Mims later, Denver were in field goal territory and Wil Lutz’s trusty boot secured an unlikely but very welcome 31-28 victory.

So, however big your team’s lead is going into the final quarter, assume nothing – and beware the Witching Hour! [ST]

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Bill and Mac: most heinous

I usually prefer to focus on the positive and the impressive but sometimes, you can’t avoid the tales of woe. So let me introduce you to the main characters of my last observation this week: Mac Jones and Bill Belichik.

On the face of it, the Patriots’ 38-3 gubbing by the 3-1 Cowboys in the late window (what is it with teams scoring 3 points this week?!) wasn’t great. Dallas took last week’s disappointing loss out on New England, who now fall to 1-3. With CeeDee Lamb catching Dak Prescott’s one passing TD and fullback Hunter Luepke running in the only score on the ground, it was again the Cowboy’s defense that starred in this one. Leighton Van Der Esch scooped up the ball for a TD after Jones had the ball stripped out by Dante Fowler, and DaRon Bland jumped a cross-field pass for another pick six (the replacement for the injured Trevon Diggs bagged another INT too). But what makes this game all the more incredible is that it’s the worst defeat Belichick has presided over in his 29 years as head coach. Wow.

Now, you don’t lose by 35 points without several things going wrong and there are many directions in which irate Pats fans can point their accusatory fingers. Some will definitely be aimed at the sieve-like offensive line, and many more at their ineffective quarterback. Jones completed just 12 of 21 pass attempts for 150 yards and turned the ball over three times, leading to 18 points for the opposition, before he was hooked late in the third quarter. His replacement, Bailey Zappe, only competed four throws, which at least makes the news that Jones will start against the Saints this week slightly more palatable.

“We obviously didn’t do much of anything well enough to be competitive tonight,” Belichick said afterwards. “I think we’re a lot better than what we showed out there tonight, but that’s what we showed. That’s what it was. We’ve got a lot of work to do to perform better.”

As the other great mind called Bill (from Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure) once said, “the only true wisdom consists of knowing that you know nothing”. So Bill B, forget the last 29 years and go back to the drawing board. [ST]

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Rookies of the Week – Week 3

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50-point demolitions, supposed tanking teams pulling off shock wins, and a media frenzy in Kansas. Has the NFL ever been more eclectic than it is at the moment?

Anyway, let’s shake it off and take a look at the standout rookies from Week 3.

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De’Von Achane, Running Back – Miami Dolphins

Achane was outstanding in the Miami Dolphins’ 70-20 victory over the Denver Broncos, rightfully earning himself the AFC Offensive Player of the Week title.

Finishing with four touchdowns and 233 all-purpose yards, Achane became only the second player in NFL history to have two rushing touchdowns, two receiving touchdowns, and at least 200 rushing yards in a game.

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Brian Branch, Cornerback – Detroit Lions

Branch, who was unlucky not to get in my Week 1 article, was outstanding in the 20-6 win against the Falcons. Not only did he hold his own against Kyle Pitts and Drake London in coverage, but he also helped his team stifle fellow rookie sensation Bijan Robinson, limiting him to 60 total yards.

Finishing the game with two quarterback hurries, 11 solo tackles, three for a loss, and two pass breakups, Branch only seems to be getting better.

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Jalen Carter, Defensive Line – Philadelphia Eagles

Carter continued his dominant streak for the third consecutive week, wreaking havoc on Tampa Bay’s offensive line. With half a sack, a QB hit, four pressures, and a first-career forced fumble, he’s proving to be a game wrecker. His 20.5% pressure rate so far this season is not just good; it’s All-Pro level good.

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Christian Gonzalez, Cornerback – New England Patriots

Could Gonzalez be having a Sauce Gardener-type year? It may be early in the season, but if his start is anything to go by, then he is well on pace. In Sunday’s 15-10 win over the Jets, Gonzalez was lined up against Garrett Wilson on 23 of his 41 snaps and held him to only three catches for 18 yards.

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Sam LaPorta, Tight End – Detroit Lions

LaPorta continues his hot streak on this list thanks to an eight-reception, 84-yard showing where he also scored his first touchdown as a pro. He now leads all tight ends in receiving yards with 186 and is second in receptions to T.J. Hockenson.

It’s also a third week in a row for the rookie tight end! To put that into perspective, only two players got on the list three times last year: Garrett Wilson and Dameon Pierce, albeit on a smaller ranking list last year.

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C.J. Stroud, Quarterback – Houston Texans

If Week 2 saw Stroud sneak into my article over Anthony Richardson, then Week 3 was where he cemented his place. The young quarterback had 20 completions on 30 attempts for 280 yards and two touchdowns. His PFF grade of 91.1 when throwing from a clean pocket led all quarterbacks in the league.

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Tuli Tuipulotu, Edge Rusher – Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers haven’t exactly wowed on defence, but that hasn’t deterred Tuipulotu from making his case as an early Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate, and his performance against the Vikings will only help his case. With nine pressures and three sacks in the game, he now totals 12 pressures and three sacks in just two starts this season.

Honourable Mentions: JuJu Brents (Colts), Tank Dell (Texans), Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions), Marvin Mims Jr. (Broncos), Michael Wilson (Cardinals)

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Rookies of the Week – Week 1

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The return of the NFL season really had everything. Shock results, devastating injuries, struggling superstars, and outstanding rookies.

Let’s look at my standout seven from Week 1.

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Will Anderson Jr, Edge – Houston Texans

Emotions may have gotten the better of Anderson pre-game, but he was zoned in as soon as he stepped on the field to start his NFL career. The versatile rusher, who lined up predominantly on the left side, recorded four tackles, three hurries, two quarterback hits, and a sack against the normally elusive Lamar Jackson.

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Jalen Carter, Defensive Line – Philadelphia Eagles

Now that’s why he was touted as potentially going first overall! A 92.1 overall PFF grade puts Carter as the 2nd overall defensive tackle, and it’s not hard to see why. In a monstrous performance, Carter had eight pressures, one sack, and one assisted tackle. It’s no wonder that Mac Jones will be seeing him in his nightmares.

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Zay Flowers, Wide Receiver – Baltimore Ravens

Does Lamar Jackson have a new favourite weapon? Flowers continued his strong preseason with an outstanding showing against the Texans, and much like the later mentioned Bijan Robinson, he was making defenders miss all over the place. Nine catches on ten targets for 78 yards led the Ravens, while he also had two rushes for nine yards.

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Xavier Gipson, Wide Receiver – New York Jets

It’s the stuff that dreams are made of! No one saw the Jets game winner being an undrafted rookie free agent, but here we are. He forced his way into contention due to his electric preseason on special teams, which caught the eye of head coach Robert Salah. Now, thanks to his 65-yard walk-off punt return touchdown, he can now say he is the AFC Special Teams Player of the Week.

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Puka Nacua, Wide Receiver – Los Angeles Rams

If you were asked to predict the only rookie receiver to go over 100 yards this weekend, I can guarantee no one would have mentioned Puka Nacua. With Cooper Kupp now on IR, the Rams needed someone to step up, and their fifth-rounder did just that. 14 targets, 10 receptions, and 119 yards. Job done.

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Anthony Richardson, Quarterback – Indianapolis Colts

Richardson wasn’t perfect by any means, as he played conservatively and had an ugly interception, but he is now the proud owner of two NFL records. Against the Jaguars, Richardson not only became the youngest player ever with a passing and rushing touchdown in the same game, but he also became the first rookie in history to have at least 200 passing yards, 40 rushing yards, a passing touchdown, and a rushing touchdown.

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Bijan Robinson, Running Back – Atlanta Falcons

A shared snap count with Allgeier didn’t count against Bijan on Sunday, as he finished with 10 rushes for 56 yards while adding six receptions on six targets for 27 yards and a touchdown in the passing game. Add in five forced missed tackles, including that disgraceful stop-start on an attempted tackle from Frankie Luvu, and you’ve got yourself a debut.

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Will Burrow’s deal reset the QB market?

Before we get completely deluged by Draft content, quarterback contracts are still a talking point in the NFL. There’s Aaron Rodgers’ pending move from Green Bay to “Gang Green”, with the finer details still being thrashed out. Then there’s Lamar Jackson, who wants out from Baltimore but no one seems to be rushing to acquire his services – not yet at least. And there are the contracts for Year 3 QBs that are up for extensions.

Having played three years in the league, the likes of Joe Burrow, the Chargers’ Justin Herbert, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts of the Eagles are now eligible to sort out long-term deals. The first to do so might get the best deal, as each new contract tends to gazump the last, pushing the benchmark ever higher. Yet regardless of whether his contract gets signed before or after the others, the widely held consensus is that Burrow might reset the QB market with the biggest deal ever seen in the NFL.

We know from the Bengals bigwigs the process is already in motion ahead of Burrow’s fifth-year option deadline. At the owners’ meeting in Kansas last week, Cincinnati’s Executive Vice President Katie Blackburn stated that nothing was imminent but confirmed that talks had started. The Bengals will want to know his long-term salary cap hit sooner than later, as they also have other mouths to feed, not least wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. As Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin stated at the NFL Combine, “Sooner is better. Maybe it’s the first piece to come, maybe it’s the last. But we’ll work towards it. We’re not going to rush the process. It’s of vital importance to us. It’s important to Joe, and we’ll work to get it accomplished.”

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There’s no doubt that Joe Burrow has earned the right to a huge deal. His rookie year was curtailed by a nasty ACL injury (the Bengals were 2-7-1 at the time) but a year later, he steered them to their first Super Bowl appearance since 1988. And in 2022, despite an emergency appendectomy during the offseason, he led Cincy’s return to the AFC Championship game and ended a 12-4 campaign with a 35 TD:12 INT ratio and a 68.3% completion rate. Over the past two seasons, only the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes, now-retired Tom Brady and Justin Herbert have logged more passing yards, and he trailed only Mahomes and Buffalo’s Josh Allen for passing touchdowns. Having set his team’s single-season passing yard and touchdown records, he is definitely in line to land a huge contract.

So what else tells us that he’s in line for a mega-payday? Well, despite the (increasingly inaccurate and outdated) reputation for being cheapskates, the Bengals traditionally pay their QBs handsomely. Andy Dalton signed a six-year, $115m extension in 2014. Before him, Carson Palmer penned an extension worth $118m over nine years. Going back yet further to 1990, Boomer Esiason became the second-highest paid player in the league with a six-year, $16m deal (those were the days, eh?). So the precedent is there: owner Mike Brown isn’t afraid to open his wallet when it comes to his quarterbacks.

The ever-rising salary cap is another factor here. It climbed to $224.8m for the forthcoming 2023 season, up nearly $20m on 2022, and that level of increase is widely expected to continue for the rest of the decade. So if the pot of money keeps getting bigger, Cincinnati should be able to dig deeper to keep the likes of Burrow happy.

All this contract shenanigans doesn’t happen in a vacuum so we can’t ignore the current QB market either. In recent weeks, we’ve seen Seattle’s Geno Smith pen a three-year, $105m deal ($35m/year) and Daniel Jones sign a four-year, $160m contract ($40m/year) with the Giants. At the top of the current list, Aaron Rodgers is the only NFL quarterback with an average salary over $50m a year. Sure, Mahomes signed the biggest total contract ($450m over 10 years) but he still trails Rodgers ($50.2m), Russell Wilson in Denver ($49m), Arizona’s Kyler Murray ($46.1m) and Deshaun Watson in Cleveland ($46m) when it comes to annual salary.

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To recap, there’s a strong argument for believing that Joey B is about to recalibrate the QB market. His performances over the last two years warrant it. The Bengals always pay their QBs. The size of other recent deals is on the rise, as is the salary cap. Everything suggests he’s in line to receive for a historic pile of moolah. How historic? Well, Yahoo Sports’ Charles Robinson states, “I’ve had a chance to talk to people now, and they’re already saying Burrow is going to get $55m. He might even get $6om.” Cap expert Andre Perotta suggested eight years/£408m ($51m/year). And most recently, Brad Spielberger of Pro Football Focus projected a four-year deal worth $214m, which works out at a benchmark-setting annual salary of $53.5m.

But yet… There’s just something niggling away at the back of my mind that says “nope, he’s not going to top the list”. So why am I thinking that?

Well, for one, I’ve seen that Spotrac projects Burrow to earn around $44m/year, based on his current market value. I actually think that undersells him a bit, but I can still see something under the magic 50-mark being possible.

My sense is that Burrow is a shrewd chap. I’m not expecting the lad who attended high school in Athens, Ohio, to offer Cincinnati a home-town discount and leave millions on the table. But like TB12 before him, he could be open to a more team-friendly deal – one that helps the Bengals retain Chase and Higgins (a free agent after next season), as well as Logan Wilson, DJ Reader and others with contract negotiations on the horizon. By his own admission, Burrow sees his Super Bowl window as his “entire career”, he wants to stay a Bengal and wants HC Zac Taylor to be there for the duration too.

Ja’Marr Chase himself said, “At the end of the day, I don’t think Joe is really too worried about how much money he’s going to make because he’s already making a tremendous amount. But it’ll all work out. I think Joe knows how he wants to set up his contract to keep some of his weapons around him. And I think that’s the biggest part for him.” These sentiments were echoed by Tobin, who told The Athletic that Burrow is aware of how his contract will impact the rest of the team. “I think Joe understands better than most people. That’s what makes him a great player. Joe sees the big picture.”

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Heaven only knows what the numbers will be but the quotes from Chase and Tobin give me faith that on-field success outweighs hard cash. He can still “get his bag”, as they say, but not at the expense of the rest of the roster. First and foremost, #9 wants to win games, division titles, conference crowns and Super Bowls. I’m not suggesting his next deal follows in the footsteps of Tom Brady, whose biggest-ever contract was his two-year, $50m deal with the Buccaneers. After all, Burrow deserves to be paid what he’s worth – but there are ways and means to do so that suit both team and player.

Like an incentive-based deal, for example. With the Bills, Josh Allen chose to sign a below-market deal of $43m/year, but it was incentive-based, reducing the cap hit. Mahomes’ deal is also loaded with annual incentives, including $1.25m a year for reaching the Super Bowl and $1.25m for winning the league MVP title (so far, so good!). Something similar might work for Joey B; after all, he thinks his team will be contenders for years to come if he can keep the band together. Being locked in for a decade like Mahomes might not be ideal but a long(ish) contract also makes sense. It’ll mean other quarterbacks will eventually pass him in annual salary, making it increasingly good value for the team over time, and it’ll give them some wiggle room should more accounting gymnastics be required.

So after all this to-ing and fro-ing, where am I landing? I’m thinking six years (the same as Allen, less than Mahomes), which is long enough to allow time for some mid-contract restructuring. And I’m thinking $288 million (a fair way behind Mahomes in total contract value but above everyone else) could swing it, which equates to $48 million/year (more than Mahomes, Allen, Watson and Murray but below Rodgers and Wilson). Enough to set you, your kids and your grandkids up (very comfortably) for life, but not a figure that sets new precedents.

I’m sure it can be done with a bit of give and take on both sides. Let’s see if it comes to pass.

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Free Agency Preview: Top 10 Players

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It’s that time of year, again, free agency! Star players such as  Lamar Jackson, Bobby Wagner, and Javon Hargrave, among others, all might be on the move in the coming days. Who else is available?

Whilst the new league new year doesn’t actually start until Wednesday, from 5 PM GMT today, teams will be able to contact players regarding contracts, triggering the start of free agency, and movement in the hours afterwards.

Who are the Top 10 players in the 2023 Free Agency Class?

1. Lamar Jackson – QB

Baltimore strangely decided to use the non-exclusive franchise tag on their former MVP quarterback, meaning he is now available for the price of two first-round picks, technically keeping him a free agent.

While a move is unlikely at this point due to Jackson wanting a fully guaranteed contract, if any team wanted to put a contract on the table, Baltimore would then have five days to match the offer.

If no one wants Lamar what does he do? Hold out? Play on the tag? Or agree to an improvised contract?

2. Javon Hargrave – IDL

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At the age of 30, Hargrave looks set to be on his third contract for his third team. Due to the interior defensive line class being one of the weaker position groups, he looks set to be in for a big payday.

Hargrave is one of many Eagles defensive players set to test free agency after making the Super Bowl in February. He had a career-high 11 sacks, putting up an 80.1 PFF grade, tied for 11th highest at IDL in the league.

3. Bobby Wagner – LB

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On top of Jackson, another man who will be the talk of the next week is Bobby Wagner. The nine-time All-Pro linebacker, eight-time pro bowler, and 2013 Super Bowl champion is coming off a strong season and chasing another ring.

Even at the age of 32, Wagner is still one of the top free agents and the league’s best at his position, putting up only a 2.9% missed tackle percentage and NFL best 90.7 PFF grade in 2022.

4. Tremaine Edmunds – LB

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At the young age of 24, Edmunds has already played five seasons and is on to his second contract. He’s one of the most sought-after players in this free agency class, but will he re-sign with Buffalo?

In 2022 he put up a career-high PFF grade of 81.9, the 5th best among all linebackers. Six pass breakups was also the best in his young career, as was a 6.5% missed tackle percentage. 

5. Lavonte David – LB

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Another player going strong in his 30’s is Lavonte David. Whilst he won’t make as much as the other two big linebackers testing free agency, he is an excellent pick-up for a contender.

In a down year for the Buccaneers’ defense, David still managed an 85.1 grade, the fourth-highest of his career, and the third-best number of all linebackers in 2022.

6. Orlando Brown Jr – OT

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With offensive tackle being a premium position in free agency, another big money maker will be Orlando Brown Jr. After being unable to agree to a long-term deal with Kansas City a top tackle is set to test the market.

2022 was a pro bowl season for Brown, who was the 19th-best offensive tackle according to PFF. He only allowed four sacks and seven quarterback hits on the year. 

7. Jessie Bates III – S

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Bates is the first of two Cincinnati Bengals safeties to test free agency this week. He’s definitely earned his big contract over the years, but will he choose to stay and help a real contender?

He would be a huge loss for Zac Taylor’s team, and may well be a bit cheaper than he was last offseason after a down year in coverage. That being said, Bates was as great in the box, posting the fifth-best run defense grade of all safeties. 

8. Marcus Davenport – EDGE

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Davenport is a bit of a strange one, because he only put up one sack last year, but is still a top player at his position. Whilst he still had seven quarterback hits, the one sack was a career low.

Had he been a free agent after a strong 2021 season, he may well be a whole lot richer. Whilst the end product wasn’t their Davenport still had a good year in many categories. Will he make a similar jump to Trey Hendrickson, should he leave New Orleans?

9. Mike McGlinchey – OT

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Mike McGlinchey is another top tackle who is expected to make a buck or two this week. He’s a solid player who’s always played at the calibre of the top half of the players at his position in his five years in San Francisco.

2022 saw the 49ers reach the NFC Championship game, and McGlinchey allowed the lowest amount of pressures in a full season in his career. Could a reunion with Mike McDaniel in Miami be a fit?

10. James Bradberry – CB 

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In his one and only year in Philadelphia, James Bradberry earned himself another big contract. The 29 year old made it all the way to the Super Bowl having only joined the team in May.

Bradberry was as excellent as ever in coverage, allowing a 54.2 passer rating, the 3rd lowest number among all cornerbacks, and intercepting the ball three times on top of the 12 pass breakups.  

Follow us at Full10Yards to keep up to date with all the latest moves this week, as well as the upcoming NFL draft. Be sure to get in touch on both Facebook and Twitter.

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F10Y Betting; Super Bowl Novelty Bets; #SuperBowl #SBLVII

It’s officially Super Bowl week and as we look forward to the big one in Glendale, Arizona we want to first have a look at the stupid punts available for the game, and of course, there are more than ever in the week building up to the game.

There’s a myriad of markets available, mainly in the UK on SkyBet although PaddyPower will offer a few markets as well – After checking this, apparently, there are sod all places offering markets on Novelty bets for the Super Bowl, which is a little tedious. I’ll keep a lookout on other sites, but for now pretty much everything on this post will be Skybet.

So, let’s have a nose through from beginning to end and see if there’s anything we can jump on.

Final note before this – KEEP AN EYE ON TWITTER AND MOVE QUICKLY – There will be people leaking information from rehearsals, so you can get some easy wins before the action starts if you work quickly.

Obviously, go easy on these markets, they are stupid, and good for a bit of fun, so don’t go staking stupid amounts on things even after the inevitable leak.

Gambleaware.org

Pre-Game

Coin Toss

History; Because it’s DEFINITELY a predictive thing… 29-27 to Tails, the last two have been Heads leading them to 6 in the last 10 years.

Out of interest, weirdly the winner of the Coin Toss tends to lose the game – In fact, the last NINE winners of the coin toss have gone on to lose the game, it makes no sense, but there we are. – That is a bet-able market – “Will the coin toss winner win the game” – Obviously the no seems like the way to go there. 10/11 on both sides on PaddyPower.

Now, I have requested a market that SkyBet priced up last year, which was simply what the Chiefs (as the designated away team) will call – I believe they’ll call Tails, there’s not a whole lot out there but it seems like they tend to lean that way… The only way to get on that at the moment is “Chiefs to win the toss, Coin to land Tails” or “Eagles to win the Toss, coin to land on heads” – Both at 5/2, so that works out as a little profit. – I have requested just what they’ll call, I’m hoping they’ll go near evens on Tails.

National Anthem

Of course the most fun you can have, and easily the most easily corrupted, if you’re VERY quick is the length of the National Anthem, we’ve got a fella singing it this year, a Country singer by the name of Chris Stapleton, the length has gone over in recent years with a bevvy of ladies singing the anthem, I’m actually tempted to go under the length this year.

It opened at 2min 02seconds and is now up to 2mins 07 seconds – BUT the key here is to keep an eye on Twitter during the week. Someone WILL post a recording from outside the stadium and tell you exactly how long the anthem is.

Opening Kick-off to be a touchback?

In most games the opening kick-off will be a touchback, but the Super Bowl is a little different, it’s a brand spanking new ball that’s untouched before the kick-off, so it’s harder and doesn’t travel as far… last year the Rams vs Bengals was NOT a touchback. I’d be leaning to no touchback at plus money – 11/8 on 888 seems all right.

Half-Time Show – Rihanna

That’s the pre-game stuff looked at, now on to the Half Time show, which this year sees Rihanna break her 5-year hiatus from performing to come back in the big time in Arizona.

Again, of course, you want to keep an eye on Twitter during the week as someone may well leak what the 1st/last song will be, but we’ll have a little look at it here, why the hell not…

It looks like “Don’t stop the Music” has been taking money since the markets opened and is now into favouritism to open the show. I would assume that Umbrella would be closing the show, but it looks like I’m not the only person expecting that with it the fave for the final song of the set. Or former leader here at Full10yards.com Tim, was looking for Disturbia – A song which isn’t listed in many sites in the states.

Total Songs

Over is the usual go-to on total songs, they tend to play a minute or so of each, o9.5 is 4/5, so a slight lean according to the odds on that side of things.

Appear on stage

Rihanna – Feminist icon and hero, will she really allow a man to appear on stage? Even JayZ who has helped organise this show? Hmmm, it’s not something I’d be backing, especially at odds-on for him, Drake is at 1/2 as well, please god no, or her fella A$AP Rocky is there at 5/2 to get on stage.

You can’t bet on it in the UK, but putting your mortgage on Cleavage at 1/5 would have been a banker, surely?!

Post-Game

Gatorade Shower

So, maybe not post-game but the end of the game at least, you can obviously pick the colour of the Gatorade thrown over the winning coach and we’ve got two fairly recent Super Bowl winners here, the Eagles had Yellow a few years back when they beat the Pats, while the Chiefs went for Orange when beating the 49ers three years ago.

Same coaching staff for the Chiefs, different for the Eagles, but Yellow looks like it could be the one to bet on here – 3/1 isn’t bad on that I guess, and it was Yellow which went on Sirianni when they won the NFC Championship game a couple of weeks ago

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5 things to look out for on Christmas Eve

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As the year draws to a close, the main slate of games is shifted to Christmas Eve with many having major playoff implications. Here are five things to look out for on a festive NFL Saturday.

1. Will the Patriots shock the Bengals to stay right in the playoff hunt?

The New England Patriots are one of many teams on the outside of the playoffs looking in. Unfortunately, they have the league’s joint toughest schedule through the final three weeks, as Joe Burrow and the Bengals come to town.

After the Jets lost on Thursday night, it’s looking a tiny bit better for Bill Belichick’s Patriots, but that final very un-Belichickian play in Las Vegas may be costly when it comes to who gets the final AFC wildcard spot.

Who would’ve thought Zac Taylor’s Bengals would have secured a second straight playoff berth at the beginning of last season? A win today will be nice, putting them in control of the race for the division with Buffalo and Baltimore coming up.

2. Might the Houston Texans hurt their division rival?

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Under Love Smith’s leadership, the Houston Texans have caused problems for both Dallas and Kansas City these past two weeks, but can they hamper the Tennessee Titans?

A loss for Mike Vrabel’s men will make a fourth straight playoff berth increasingly unlikely, giving the Jacksonville Jaguars the lead of the AFC South.

Trevor Lawrence’s rise to stardom paired with the Titans’ four-game losing streak has put pressure on a team that looked like a shoo-in for the playoffs a month ago.

3. Can the Seahawks come away from Arrowhead still in wildcard contention?

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Pete Carroll’s Seattle Seahawks are in need of a win in Kansas City today to keep their season alive. The Hawks currently sit at a 31% chance of making the postseason, that number will be way bigger if they are to pull off the shock.

Their opponents, Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs were crowned AFC West Champions for the seventh time in a row. Focus now turns toward getting the one seed from the Buffalo Bills.

Reid’s men will need the Bills to lose one, the most likely being the next MNF against the Bengals, but also need to be wary of a slip-up themselves. It got super close in Houston last week.

4. The New York Giants can potentially clinch a playoff spot with a win

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Fresh from the hold-on SNF win over their division rival Washington Commanders, the New York Giants can clinch a playoff spot this week with a win and a loss from two of Washington, Seattle, and Detroit.

Sunday night’s win was mega, putting them in the driving seat for a first postseason berth since 2016, a big achievement for Brian Daboll in his first season as head coach.

In their way are the Minnesota Vikings, who will be hoping to be on the boil for the whole game this week. Last Saturday’s first half in Indianapolis was abysmal, needing a record-breaking comeback to secure their eventual victory. 

5. Could Gardner Minshew secure the #1 seed for the Philadelphia Eagles?

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Gardner Minshew will start for the Philadelphia Eagles in Dallas tonight as Jalen Hurts is out with a shoulder injury. Can he win them the NFC East?

A win would not only wrap up the division but also the number one seed, giving some key Eagles players potentially a few weeks of rest, ready to begin again deep into January.

The Cowboys are very unlikely to win the division, and already have secured a spot in next month’s playoffs, but a win over their bitter rivals will still be sought after.