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PICK SIX – Conference Championship Games

Four teams. Two Championship deciders. One game remaining. The ever-decreasing numbers leave Sean Tyler diving deeper into the detail so this week, our scribe shines a spotlight on the Chiefs defense, a pass-and-catch by Lamar, a crucial four-minute spell that save the Niners and some costly errors by the Lions.

In Spags we trust

Much will be made of Kansas City’s offensive stars in their 17-10 win over the Ravens on Sunday night. Patrick Mahomes was successful with 75% of his passes (30 of 39), Travis Kelce caught all 11 of his targets for 116 receiving yards and a touchdown, and Isiah Pacheco barged his way to 68 rushing yards and a score. All very impressive. But in restricting the free-scoring Ravens to just 10 points, Steve Spagnuolo’s defense – even without Willie Gay, who was ruled out before the game with a neck issue – should take much of the credit for this one. The Chiefs got touchdowns on their first two possessions and that proved to be enough to win. As safety Justin Reid said postgame, “Spags is a magician. His feel for the game, his timing of the calls, when to bring pressure and when to fake it. We have a plan for everything.”

Over the last couple of months, Lamar Jackson has been superb and Baltimore have looked imperious, coming into this game as 4.5-point favourites on merit. However, KC’s Defensive Coordinator stuck to his pressure-heavy approach and his boys blitzed Lamar 20 times – and it worked. The Chiefs D came away with four sacks, three QB hits and five passes batted down, allowed only three third-down conversions and conceded just 22-and-a-half minutes of possession to their opponents.

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Jackson, this year’s yet-to-be-crowned MVP, has been slicing and dicing teams for fun of late but KC somehow managed to pen him in the pocket from all sides, put him under pass-rush pressure and cover his downfield receivers all at once. George Karlaftis, Justin Reid, Charles Omenihu and Tershawn Wharton all brought him down, with Omenihu’s strip sack resulting in a fumble recovery (before he suffered an ACL injury that ends his season). Then, deep into the fourth quarter, Jackson was hurried into a deep ball into a crowded end zone. It was intended for Isaiah Likely but found the hands of Chiefs safety Deon Bush. With Baltimore’s OC Todd Monken relying on his QB to do the heavy lifting (Justice Hill and Gus Edwards combined for just six rushes), it wasn’t a balanced display from a team that normally relies much more on the ground game. They fell short and frustratingly, Lamar couldn’t carry the team by himself.

Even Mahomes has learned that it’s OK to lean on his defensive colleagues; it’s a team game after all. Should the Chiefs beat San Francisco next weekend and lift the Lombardi once more, Mahomes and Kelce (and Taylor bloody Swift) will inevitably dominate the headlines. But the ‘In Spags We Trust’ t-shirts, donned by KC’s defensive players during the warm-up at M&T Bank Stadium, will be out in force again.

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In spats we trust

Talking of warm-ups, who doesn’t appreciate a bit of childish nonsense between opposing players before a game? During their pregame routines, Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes were seen throwing Ravens kicker Justin Tucker’s equipment away. The kerfuffle quickly went viral, adding some extra spice to the contest but alas, a day later, Tucker dismissed the interaction as a storm in a teacup.

“It’s kind of silly that we’re even having to address something that happened before the game that I really don’t see as a big deal,” he said. “But for those that don’t know the way it works, each kicker goes to the other team’s designated warm-up area. I’ve been doing the exact same thing for 12 years and never had a problem with anybody. That’s just the way kickers around the league have always done it.”

Kelce told Tucker he needed to move because Mahomes had to warm up, then took matters into his own hands by kicking his ball away and tossing his helmet to the side. As Tucker explained, “While I was on the ground stretching, Travis asked if I could move my helmet. I happily got up and moved my helmet out of the way, or so I thought. And then Travis comes over and he just kicks my stuff and throws my helmet. I thought it was all just some gamesmanship, you know? All in good fun.”

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It seems that Mahomes and Kelce were miffed by Tucker’s presence but the kicker added “Those are two of the best players that have ever played the game. Obviously, it’s an intense environment but at the end of the day, they’re just trying to get ready for a football game.”

So there you have it, right from the horse’s mouth. The spat was something about nothing. You can step away now, there’s nothing to see here.

The need for Sneed

The 10 points posted by the Ravens equalled their season low but if it wasn’t for a crucial game-defining turnover near the goal line, it could have been a different story.

Early in the fourth quarter, Zay Flowers did his best to get seven on the board for his team, reaching out for the end zone to cap a 7-yard catch-and-run. But with the tip of the ball just shy of the line, Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed punched the ball out of his grasp. The Ravens rookie receiver initially thought he’d broken the plane but replays confirmed the fumble, which was recovered by Trent McDuffie, was the correct call. Flowers was clearly frustrated after the play, throwing his helmet and apparently cutting his hand in the process. When asked if he thought he’d scored, he replied “Yeah, I thought I did, honestly. But I’ll learn from my mistakes.”

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In his defence, Flowers was being a bit hard on himself. It wasn’t a mistake, just a great play by Sneed that snatched much-needed points away from the Ravens. In fact, Flowers led his team with five receptions for 115 yards (including a 54-yarder) and a touchdown. The would-be TD appeared to have made up for a taunting penalty earlier in the drive, when he put Sneed on the deck but alas, Flowers was an inch or two away from his second score of the game.

The Ravens are 0-8 when committing three or more turnovers in the postseason and the only other time they’ve committed three this season, in Week 5 against the Steelers, also resulted in a loss. Therefore, it should be no surprise that with Lamar Jackson accounting for two others – a strip-sack early in the second quarter and a desperation throw into triple coverage – the turnover battle proved to be the difference in this closely contested game.

Lamar wins MOTY (Multi-tasker of the Year)

If you’d read the play-by-play descriptions of the Chiefs/Ravens game on NFL.com without having seen the highlights, you may have been confused by one snippet from the second quarter:

13 Yard Pass
(5:38) (Shotgun) L. Jackson pass short left to L. Jackson to BAL 31 for 13 yards (D. Tranquill).

Yes, Lamar threw a pass… to himself!

The eye-catching play happened on a 2nd-and-5 on his own 18-yard line, when Jackson the quarterback had a pass tipped at the line of scrimmage by Justin Reid. The ball deflected up into the air but Jackson the receiver ran forward and pulled in the ball himself, eventually taking it for 13 yards. The crazy play is now the longest postseason completion by a player to himself in the Super Bowl era.

Summing up how the game went, however, the Ravens couldn’t take advantage of the lucky break and four plays later, they were forced to punt the ball away.

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Niners turn tide in four minutes

After a regular season in which the 49ers didn’t have to make a single second-half comeback, the team has had to do so in back-to-back playoff games. They fought back from behind to see off the spirted Packers last week and had to dig themselves out of an even bigger hole this weekend, overcoming a 17-point deficit to beat the Detroit Lions. Trailing 24-7 at the break, Brock Purdy was struggling to push the ball downfield. But despite being down by three scores, with their season on the line, no one quit. No one panicked. No one even blinked.

The tide turned in four action-packed third-quarter minutes. Having opened the second half with a 43-yard Jake Moody field goal, the Niners defense crucially stopped the Lions on a 4th-and-2 (more on that one below). Having secured the turnover on downs with 7:03 left in the quarter, the Niners then got a bit of luck. A 51-yard pass to Brandon Aiyuk was overthrown by Purdy but the ball bounced off the facemask of cornerback Kindle Vildor as he fell backwards and into the clutches of a diving Aiyuk, just 4 yards shy of the paint (6:29).

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Three plays later, the same player connected with his QB to make it a one-score game (5:22). On the opening play of Detroit’s next possession, Jahmyr Gibbs gave up a fumble to Arik Armstead (5:15) on his own 24-yard line and the 49ers comeback was well and truly on. Much of the necessary yardage was made on a 21-yard Purdy scramble and the irrepressible Christian McCaffrey eventually punched it in from a yard out with 3:04 left in the quarter.

Those 14 unanswered points in four minutes flipped the script, with the Niners going on to right the wrongs from their last two NFC Championship games with a 34-31 victory and the Lions never recovering their swagger. In the first half, Detroit bagged three touchdowns and a successful FG but hit a wall after that, getting nothing from their first four possessions in the second half. In contrast, San Francisco’s 27 second-half points equal the third-largest comeback in a Conference Championship game so the lesson here is to never count the 49ers out, even though they’ve put together just three good quarters in the playoffs. Andy Reid, you have been warned.

Lions mistakes take their toll

You can understand Dan Campbell going for it, with the ultimate prize – a first Super Bowl appearance for his franchise – on the line. The ultra-aggressive Head Coach of the Lions has always played on the front foot, looking at achieving the best-possible outcome from any situation rather than fearing the worst. And you can’t knock it; that approach has defined his leadership over the last three years and it’s brought Detroit to the brink of the big one.

However, such a gung-ho style will inevitably fail at times and on those occasions, you’re bound to face some heat. And so it was in their loss to the Niners on Sunday, when Campbell’s decisions contributed to his team letting a 17-point lead slip through their fingers. (Yeah, the Lions couldn’t just lose in a ‘normal’ way, they had to do something spectacular.)

As referenced above, the Lions faced a 4th-and-2, within field goal range, in the third quarter. Holding a 24-10 lead at that point, many a coach would have opted to take the potential three points from a 45-yard kick and reinstate a three-score lead. But maybe having the inconsistent Michael Badgley waiting in the wings convinced Campbell to try and keep the drive alive. Alas, the decision backfired as a wide-open Josh Reynolds couldn’t haul in Jared Goff’s pass.

“I felt really good about us converting and keeping our momentum,” a philosophical Campbell said afterwards. “It’s easy with hindsight, I get it. But I don’t regret those decisions. It’s hard, because we didn’t come through, it didn’t work out. And I understand the scrutiny I’ll get. It’s part of the gig.”

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There was also another play call he may want back. Trailing 34-24 with 1:05 left, the Lions faced a 3rd-and-goal from the 1-yard line. Campbell believed David Montgomery could run into the end zone with ease and, with all three timeouts in tact, would give his team a shot at forcing a three-and-out. Instead, Montgomery was dropped in the backfield for a loss of 2, and Campbell had to cash in a timeout. Jameson Williams caught a TD on the next play but with only two timeouts left, the Lions couldn’t stop San Francisco from running the clock down.

Sure, Campbell’s decisions will get the headlines, but the blame falls wider than that. Kindle Vildor’s facemask-ricochet interception to Brandon Aiyuk. Jahmyr Gibbs’ fumble. Another Reynolds drop. A missed downed punt at the 1-yard-line. Another failed fourth down when a 48-yard game-tying FG was on the cards. And lots of missed tackles in the open field. They all played a part. In the end, Detroit were just too error-prone, on and off the field, to withstand the onslaught of the 49ers’ second-half resurrection. But rest assured, if they iron out some of those blemishes, they’ll be a force to be reckoned with again next season.

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PICK SIX – Divisional Round

With only four games over the weekend, we’ve had to dive a little deeper this time, looking at individual players and even individual plays. With Shaun Blundell in the dog house (don’t worry, he’s just settling in a new pet pooch), Sean Tyler takes the reins and selects six aspects of the NFL’s Division Round to unpick.

Another Lamar-vellous performance

If you have Lamar Jackson on your team, you always have a chance, and if you have him playing at his best, then frankly, you have an unfair advantage. And so it proved on Saturday evening, when the No.1 seed Baltimore Ravens came off a week’s rest to put the spirited Houston Texans to the sword. Defying his 1-3 playoff record, Lamar went into full action hero mode in the Ravens’ 34-10 Divisional Round victory, throwing 16 of 22 for 152 yards and rushing 11 times for 100 more in a four-touchdown, zero-turnover performance.

Baltimore walked away with the spoils quite comfortably in the end but having gone into the break tied at 10-apiece, it wasn’t obvious that the dam was about to break. In fact, Lamar was blitzed time and again in the first two quarters, took three sacks – two in back-to-back plays – and ended the half with 23 net passing yards and just one TD pass to Nelson Agholor. It was an evenly matched contest up until that point, but something must have clicked into place in the locker room.

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In the second half, Jackson led four consecutive scoring drives, which ended in rushing TDs from 15 and 8 yards out – the latter saw him keep going through the back of the end zone, over the photographers and off down the tunnel – a TD pass to tight end Isaiah Likely and a 43-yard Justin Tucker field goal. Meanwhile, his defensive colleagues kept Houston at arm’s length, holding them to 213 total yards and no offensive scores.

Jackson is the first player in NFL history with two-plus passing TDs, two-plus rushing TDs, 100+ passing yards and 100+ rushing yards in a game, and must be nailed on to be the league MVP again. And on the back of his second playoff win, Baltimore progress to the AFC Championship game for the first time since 2012, when they last lifted the Lombardi. If Jackson is truly MVP-worthy, he needed to show more than a stellar regular season. There were still lingering doubts about his playoff credentials before this weekend but not any more; four TDs have a habit of silencing your critics.

Nonetheless, despite this impressive display, no one’s counting any chickens yet, least of all the man himself. “We’ve got to finish,” Jackson said after the game. “We’re still in the playoffs, not in the dance yet. I’m not even thinking of the Super Bowl until we handle business.” [ST]

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Jordan would Love a second chance

Even in the perfect game, I suspect every player is going to want one or two plays back. And in the Packers’ 24-21 loss to San Francisco on Saturday night, there are no prizes for guessing which one Jordan Love would nominate for a do-over.

After the Packers had gone behind for the final time, Love (194 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) had just over a minute left, and three timeouts at his disposal, to get his team into field goal range. He picked up an initial first down but on the next set of downs, starting from his own 36-yard line, he got flushed out of the pocket and had to roll to the right.

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Instead of throwing the ball away or attempting to scramble for a few yards – but importantly, living to fight another play – he had a rush of blood to the head and forced an off-balance, on-the-run, underthrown wing-and-a-prayer throw back across the field into a sea of red jerseys. His intended target, Christian Watson, was outnumbered 3:1 by Niners and the nearest one, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, dived in for his second INT of the game.

It wasn’t this one attempt, or even Love’s play in general, that lost them the game; there were ample chances for Green Bay to seal the deal, not least when Anders Carlson’s 41-yard FG attempt drifted wide left earlier in the game. But the errant throw did put the final nail in the Packers’ fifth straight postseason loss to the 49ers in the last 10 years. It was ironic that their season ended on a turnover, considering that Love had thrown for 2,422 yards, 21 touchdowns and just one interception since Week 10. It’ll feel pretty raw for a while but unlike seasons past, Matt LaFleur’s young team – including their impressive young quarterback – are on an upward trajectory and have a lot to look forward to. [ST]

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The Mac attack

Christian McCaffrey is pretty good at the worst of times but when he’s enjoyed a couple of weeks’ recuperation, he’s lethal. In the 49ers’ come-from-behind win against Green Bay on Saturday, the dual-threat running back ran the rock 17 times for 98 yards (averaging 5.7) and rushed for two touchdowns, and caught seven of 12 targets for another 30 in the passing game.

It should be no surprise, given that Run CMC has absolutely dominated the regular season, with more than 2,000 total yards to his name. Not only did he lead the league with 1,459 rushing yards – nearly 300 more than his nearest rival, Derrick Henry – and 14 rushing TDs but he also posted 564 yards and seven TDs (the same as teammates Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel) as a receiver. If you look up ‘workhorse’ in the dictionary, I’m pretty sure you’ll find a picture of McCaffrey there.

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His first score, with the Niners 13-7 behind midway through the third quarter, was a 39-yard scamper where he just barged his way up the middle, made a couple of cuts to the left and broke out into the open field. His other TD, from 6 yards out, saw his O-line open up a big channel for him to run right through, with only Jonathan Owens able to get anywhere near him. That was the fatal blow: five plays later, Jordan Love threw his second pick and the game was over. But as ever, it wasn’t just the touchdowns. McCaffrey was effective on screen passes and several times, he just barrelled into the heart of the Packers’ defensive line with the ball cradled tightly in both arms, pumping his legs and breaking tackles to secure the required yardage.  

McCaffrey’s winning score gave the Niners their first second-half comeback of the season and on a night when they weren’t at their best – with special teams blunders, their defense giving up big plays and Brock Purdy being off-target for much of the night – they needed to lean on him. But I guess it shows that the 49ers can come from behind if required, and they may well have to do the same again this week in the NFC Championship game. [ST]

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Dan’s the man as Lions tame Bucs  

Famously, the Detroit Lions are one of only four NFL franchises never to reach a Super Bowl and after a slow start against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, doubts crept in as to whether this year’s version could keep the dream alive. Luckily, a raucous home crowd finally woke the team up to secure a 31-23 victory and advance to a conference championship game for the first time since 1991. 

In front of their fervent fans, the Lions epitomised the grit, determination and honest endeavour of their (Honolulu) blue-collar town. The game was tied at 17-17 going into the final quarter but Dan Campbell’s team somehow dug a little deeper and found that extra gear. Jared Goff threw for 287 yards and two touchdown passes. Amon-Ra St Brown led the team with 77 receiving yards and scored the game-sealing TD. Sam LaPorta had nine catches for 65 yards, while running back Jahmyr Gibbs scored a touchdown and gained 114 total yards.   

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But it wasn’t plain sailing by any means. Through their first six possessions, the Lions punted four times and crossed into Bucs territory just twice as Tampa’s HC Todd Bowles shut down their ground game. But this team knows how to stay calm and make the necessary adjustments. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who looks set to land a head coaching gig once Detroit’s season ends, didn’t panic in the face of adversity, he just used the passing game to open things up for Gibbs. Touchdowns followed on the Lions’ next three drives.

Detroit have set themselves up nicely for the next few years with a trio of emerging stars in Gibbs, St Brown and LaPorta but for me, the ace in the pack is Coach Campbell. Exactly three years ago, the former tight end made headlines for his infamous introductory press conference, when he said his team would be biting kneecaps off and kicking teeth in. And when he started 0-10-1 and then 4-19-1, the critics piled in and the vultures started to circle. But Campbell stuck to his guns and steadily turned it around, improving from a three-win team in 2021 to one that’s about to play its first NFC title game in 32 seasons.

For all his potty-mouthed passion, Metallica quotes and meme-fodder clichés (if you watched Hard Knocks, you’ll know), the guy can coach football, build a culture and lead a team. He gives his guys the kudos when things go well and clearly believes in them. They obviously believe in him too. Everyone inside the camp seems bought in and thinks they can go all the way. And now, after three decades in the wilderness, the Ford Field faithful can finally dare to believe too. [ST]

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KC’s killer combo

There are three things in life you can be sure of: death, taxes and a Mahomes-to-Kelce touchdown pass in a big playoff game. And that lethal connection – between the best QB and the best TE in the league – proved to be the undoing of the Buffalo Bills in a 27-24 Kansas City Chiefs win on Sunday night. The pair now have the most combined TDs (16) by any QB–receiver duo in NFL postseason history, overtaking Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski.

Ironically, Travis Kelce (who posted five catches for 75 yards) was in the middle of a seven-game spell without a touchdown, his second-longest drought of a very productive career. But in the second quarter, Kelce hauled in a 22-yard TD pass and after halftime, his red-and-yellow gloves stuck to a 3-yard throw and he fought his way over the line near the pylon before directing lovehearts towards girlfriend Taylor Swift and brother Jason in celebration. The 34-year-old now has 18 TDs in the playoffs, and could edge closer to Jerry Rice’s postseason record (22) next week in the AFC Championship decider.

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Having battled back from 6-6 with six straight wins, the Bills have essentially been playing playoff football for two months and were definitely the team with momentum. In contrast, KC have been more inconsistent of late, with their offense ranked just 15th in scoring. But with Patrick Mahomes and his number one target in determined mood, you write these perennial Super Bowl contenders off at your peril – even when Mahomes is playing his first playoff game on the road.

This growing AFC rivalry produced yet another classic. The lead changed five times and neither team led by more than seven points. But the Bills found a new way to lose to the Chiefs, who have extinguished their season in three of the past four playoffs. After succumbing 38-24 in the 2020 AFC Championship game, Buffalo came up short in an epic 42-36 overtime loss in the Divisional Round a year later. This time, the result was even closer and the jeopardy came in the form of a game-tying FG attempt with 1:47 remaining. Alas for Buffalo, Tyler Bass’ 44-yard kick swerved off to the right and the Chiefs ran the clock down.

While this loss may not hit as hard as the “13 second” game from 2021, the heartache from yet another close-but-no-cigar, what-might-have-been season will linger in Buffalo. Meanwhile, the Chiefs will have to sharpen up in a few areas – Mecole Hardman not fumbling the ball through the end zone for a turnover, for example – if they’re going to give the Baltimore Ravens a run for their money at M&T Bank Stadium this weekend. It’s another road trip for Mahomes, Kelce and co but as they’ve just proved, with that dynamic duo in their ranks, you can never rule them out. [ST]

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Baker proves he’s worth the dough

Moving on to his fourth team in two years, Baker Mayfield bet on himself at the start of this season by signing a one-year ‘prove it’ deal with Tampa Bay. Having ‘proven it’ by throwing for more than 4,000 yards, 28 TDs and 10 INTs, the wager seems to have paid off.

The Bucs backed their way into the playoffs by winning the sub-par NFC South, then beat the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card Round and gave the feisty Lions a scare on Sunday before bowing out 31-23. Mayfield had a lot to do with that run of success and on Sunday, he played his part too, trying to keep his team in the game as his defense struggled.

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Unfortunately, with the Buccaneers fighting back from a two-score deficit against Detroit, Baker threw a devastating interception with 1:35 remaining. He’d tried to squeeze a pass into tight end Cade Otton, but it was cut out by Derrick Barnes. The pick ended the game and the Bucs’ season, leaving the QB bent over, head in hands in horror and disbelief. Tampa’s first possession of the game had also ended in an INT, although that pass bounced right off Mike Evans’ hands. Nonetheless, despite the turnovers, and the four sacks, Mayfield rallied his troops time and again, completing 26 of 41 passes for 349 yards and three touchdown passes. 

After the game, he confirmed that he would like to return to the Gulf Coast of Florida in 2014, adding that he’d also like 30-year-old receiver Mike Evans, who had eight catches for 147 yards and a TD on Sunday, there with him. “The guy hasn’t regressed at all,” Mayfield said. “I think he had one of his best years. He makes my life easy. So yeah, if I’m back, I want Mike back. That guy’s a stud.”

HC Todd Bowles agreed that Mayfield has earned the right to return but with the franchise tag for QBs projected to be approaching $36 million in 2024, Bucs GM Jason Licht will need to do some financial jiggery-pokery. Licht also wants Evans to sign a new deal. After all, he is the franchise’s all-time leader in receptions, receiving yards, receiving TDs and total TDs, and has just become the only player in NFL history to surpass 1,000 receiving yards in 10 consecutive seasons. So however it shakes out, I suspect Mayfield and Evans will both be in demand… and in the money. [ST]

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PICK SIX – Wild Card Round

Or the Super Wild Card Round, as the NFL likes to call it. The playoffs opened up with six intriguing games – two each on Saturday, Sunday and Monday – so our resident scribes, Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler, have picked three each to dive into. For tales of Arctic weather, young QBs putting older ones in their place and a couple of surprisingly high scores, read on…    

Chiefs D in their element

According to legendary Alabama coach Bear Bryant, “offense sells tickets but defense wins championships”. And sure enough, when the Chiefs beat the Dolphins 26-7 on Saturday night to reach the AFC Divisional Round for a sixth straight season, it was Steve Spagnuolo’s defensive unit that dominated proceedings.

With the temperature at Arrowhead plummeting to -32°C with wind chill, making it the fourth-coldest NFL game ever, icicles were seen dangling off Andy Reid’s moustache, fans were decked out in ski wear and Mahomes’ helmet shattered like plastic after a hit from safety DeShon Elliott. But despite the inhospitably cold conditions, the Chiefs D were on fire. Through the first three quarters, the league’s second-ranked defense froze Miami out, limiting them to 151 total yards and one big play, a 53-yard TD pass to Tyreek Hill. They pressured Tua Tagovailoa 16 times, sacked him twice (George Karlaftis getting 1.5 of those) and forced him to delay passes or make errant ones by keeping Hill (on his much-touted return to Kansas City) and Jaylen Waddle under wraps. Even the run game got iced, with neither Raheem Mostert nor De’Von Achane able to bust out anything longer than 8 yards.

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On the other side of the ball, Miami’s depleted defense (no Chubb, Phillips, Van Ginkel or Holland) tried to blitz Patrick Mahomes but he seemed chill all game, even on the rare occasions he has a defender up in his grille. After a lukewarm season, the Chiefs offense finally turned up the heat with 409 yards and 25 first downs. Second-year RB Isiah Pacheco rumbled for 89 yards and a TD, aided by a further 41 rushing yards by Mahomes himself, while another young buck, rookie Rashee Rice, had eight catches for 130 yards and a TD. Travis Kelce (seven for 71 yards) and kicker Harrison Butker (four field goals) were the other standouts.

Injuries and the weather were clearly factors in Miami hitting their lowest points tally of the season but the narratives about the one-and-done Dolphins still hold water: they can’t beat teams with a winning record and their Hawaiian QB can’t win in cold-weather games. Having been the NFL’s hottest team for a while, they definitely cooled off down the home straight, slipping from favourites to frauds as their once-promising campaign ended with consecutive losses to the Ravens, Bills and Chiefs. In turn, those defeats ended up costing them the top seed in the AFC (and subsequent home ties played in 80 degrees), the AFC East title and then what would have been only their second playoff win this century.

As for KC, they not only coped with the Arctic conditions, they thrived in them. Coach Reid notched his 23rd playoff victory, the defense was dominant, Mahomes was unflustered, Pacheco and Kelce were solid, and Rice posted the most receiving yards by a rookie receiver in a home game in NFL playoff history. Like cybermen from Doctor Who, the Chiefs march on through the postseason with an ominous inevitability, seemingly untroubled by ice and wind, aquatic mammals or anything else. [ST]

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When defense doesn’t win championships

“We picked a bad day to have a bad day,” said Cleveland Browns coach Kevin Stefanski. “Just disappointing.” Did they ever? And was it ever.

The Houston Texans crushed the Browns 45-14 on Saturday to advance past the Wild Card Round in a humbling rout that could’ve been worse. Cleveland’s vaunted pass rush, headlined by Myles Garrett, produced one quarterback hurry and zero sacks against the Texans rookie passer, CJ Stroud. There were big plays and missed tackles a plenty and the Texans could’ve put up a 60-burger.

The Browns entered the playoffs looking like they had the goods to make a deep run. Their defense had been the most dominant unit of any to make the postseason, and shut down the San Francisco 49ers’ top-ranked offense in October. They rattled Lamar Jackson in November. And they surged into the playoffs with a string of stifling performances in December. But in January, when it really counted, Cleveland’s defense was absent. Stroud completed 16 of 21 passes for 274 yards and three touchdowns before exiting early in the fourth quarter with the game well in hand.

Joe Flacco’s back-to-back pick-sixes eliminated any hope of another Cleveland comeback. But Stroud was cooking the Browns defense long before that. The Texans’ 24 first-half points were the most Cleveland had surrendered this year, and Houston’s 286 yards were the most the Browns had allowed in any half all season.

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Houston located their opponents’ vulnerabilities early and often. They even capitalised on the aggressiveness of linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who was the lone Browns player on either side of the ball to bring his best, highlighted by his four tackles for loss. After the Browns had taken a 14-10 lead on the opening play of Houston’s next possession, Stroud rolled right off play-action. Instead of sticking with tight end Brevin Jordan, who looked like he would stay in and block on the play, Owusu-Koramoah went after Stroud along with defensive end Ogbo Okoronkwo. Stroud tossed the ball to the uncovered Jordan, who dashed through cornerback Martin Emerson Jr.’s arm tackle on the way to a 76-yard touchdown. The Texans regained the lead, 17-14, and never relinquished it.

The Browns kept on making mistakes. And when it became evident that Cleveland wouldn’t be able to slow down Stroud or the Texans, DC Jim Schwartz opted against making any major adjustments, especially in coverage. They couldn’t get going or do much of anything against the youngest quarterback to ever win a playoff game in the Super Bowl era. The Browns didn’t bring their best to the postseason – and no-showed when it mattered most. [SB]

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Love will tear us apart

In a Super Wild Card matchup that brought the home side very little joy, division winners Dallas succumbed to an early onslaught when hosting the No.7 seed Green Bay Packers. The Cowboys trailed 27-0 shortly before half-time and while they eventually lost by a more flattering scoreline of 48-32, the damage had already been done.

As the NFC’s second seed, Dallas were riding a 16-game home winning streak, having won all eight this year with a +172 point differential. The odds may have been stacked against Matt LeFleur’s Packers but QB Jordan Love – who sat behind Aaron Rodgers for three years to earn his shot – has been electric of late. Since Week 11, he’s gone 7-2 with 21 TDs and just one interception, and there was a whole lotta Love on show again on Sunday night. His passer rating of 157.2 (interestingly, the same as CJ Stroud’s) is the highest in a road playoff game in the Super Bowl era and it would’ve been perfect if not for a garbage-time drop by Tucker Kraft. Even though he completed just 16 passes, the largely unpressured QB had plenty of time to shred the Dallas defense, amassing 272 yards, three TDs and 0 INTs as the Pack stunned AT&T Stadum into silence.

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The main beneficiary of the Love bombs was Romeo Doubs (151 receiving yards and a TD from just six receptions), while Luke Musgrave and Dontayvion Wicks also caught touchdown passes. With a healthy dose of Aaron Jones (21 carries for 118 rushing yards and 3 TDs) added to the mix, it was soon clear that Dan Quinn’s defence – ranked fifth over the regular season – couldn’t stop a dripping tap, let alone this increasingly impressive Green Bay attack. The 48 points Dallas shipped set an unwanted postseason record for the franchise and must cast serious doubts in the minds of those currently considering Quinn as a potential HC hire.

After a sticky patch, the Packers defense also chose a good time to come out and play. They forced Dak Prescott into two first-half turnovers – a Jaire Alexander INT and a Darnell Savage pick-six – and were seconds away from shutting the Cowboys out in the first half. Prescott, the one-time MVP favourite, just couldn’t get on the same page as his targets, and failed to record any passing yards in the first quarter. By the end, Cee Dee Lamb (110 yards), Michael Gallup (103 yards) and Jake Ferguson (93 yards and 3 TDs) had made their mark on the box score, but the Packers were already 32 points to the good and resting key defensive players by the time the league’s highest-scoring team finally started to click.

Just like they have over the last quarter of a century or so, the Dallas players will now watch the latter stages of the postseason from the comfort of their couches, while Mike McCarthy – despite becoming the first Dallas coach with three consecutive 12-win seasons – will have an uncomfortable time waiting for Jerry Jones to call after losing to the franchise he once led to Super Bowl glory.

In contrast, Green Bay (who, don’t forget, were 3-6 midway through the season) become the first 7th seed to win a playoff game since the expanded 14-team format was introduced in 2020. The youngest team in the league progresses to the Divisional Round for the fourth time in five years only this time, it’s with a new QB, a promising cast of offensive playmakers and a very bright future. The betting for Saturday’s game against top seeds San Francisco may have opened with them as 9.5-point underdogs but as Mark Twain once wrote, “It’s not the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the fight in the dog.” And if Sunday’s win is anything to go by, there’s a lot of fight in this dog. [ST]

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Goff wins the big one at last

Has a kneel-down ever generated such a noise? As Jared Goff directed the Ford Field fans to get even louder, he took the final snap and ended his long-suffering franchise’s playoff drought after 32 years.

It was billed as Goff vs Stafford, the past against the present, and Goff came through in a big way. Against the franchise he once led to the Super Bowl, Goff was 22 of 27 for 277 yards and a touchdown. He also threw the crucial completed pass for a victory-sealing first down against the team that cast him away, beating Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams 24-23 on Sunday night.

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The Lions ended a nine-game postseason losing streak – the longest in NFL history – that dated back to a victory over Dallas on 5 January 1992. They lost a home playoff game two years later and hadn’t hosted one since. But now Detroit, the NFC’s No.3 seed, will have two home playoff games for the first time in their 90-year franchise history, hosting Tampa Bay in the Divisional Round next Sunday. The Lions started strong and looked as fired up as their long-suffering fans, with rapper and Motor City native Eminem in the house along with Hall of Famers Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson.

With that said, LA was always in this contest. Stafford, who played most of the game with a bandaged and bloody hand after he slammed it into a defender’s helmet, finished 25 of 36 for 367 yards with two touchdowns. The Rams moved the ball at will for much of the game, but had to settle for short field goals by Brett Maher to get to 24-23 with 8:10 remaining. Stafford has made a career of fourth-quarter comebacks, a fact that the fans at Ford Field were well aware of. With a chance to put the Rams ahead for the first time, he led a drive to the Detroit 34, but the Lions’ defense forced him backwards from there. Detroit took over with 4:07 to go, and Los Angeles had only one timeout left after calling two earlier in the half to cope with the crowd noise. That allowed Goff to take a knee after his throw to Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Detroit drafted Stafford No.1 overall in 2009 and while he put up great statistics, he didn’t win a playoff game in his 12 seasons in Michigan. Stafford hugged dozens of Detroit’s players and staff members after the game and, in a classy act, he signed off with “I’m happy for the players, I’m happy for those guys.” It’s a trade where both sides can claim to be very happy with the results. [SB]

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Philly’s season scuttled by the Buccaneers

Well, shiver me timbers, the Philadelphia Eagles’ implosion is complete. After completing five straight wins to go 10-1, they stumbled to 11-6 and now they’re one-and-done in the playoffs, losing 32-9 to the swashbuckling Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium.

The defending NFC champions played like they were walking the plank from the off, looking disinterested on offense and scared on defense. Other than DeVonta Smith, the lone bright spark with eight catches for 148 yards, their passing game was clearly missing the injured AJ Brown. They failed to convert a single third down and went scoreless in three quarters, Dallas Goedert’s TD and their single field goal both coming in Q2. Summing up their day, their ground game delivered just 42 yards and the Bucs even managed to repel their notorious ‘Brotherly Shove’ on a two-point conversion attempt.

To be fair, Tampa Bay had looked like scurvy dogs coming into the game too and only locked up the NFC South last week with an ugly 9-0 win over the lowly Panthers. But their performance on Monday night was a vast improvement. They mustered 426 total yards, with five players exceeding 45 receiving yards and Rachaad White (72 rushing yards) running well. Todd Bowles’ blitz-heavy defense also gave Jalen Hurts, playing with an injured finger, no time and no place to run.

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While Tampa Bay were aggressive on both sides of the ball, Philly tackled like it was a flag football game. The Bucs finished with 219 yards after catch, with Trey Palmer’s 56-yard touchdown reception a classic case in point: he should have been stopped by corner James Bradberry (and others) after snagging a six-yard pass, not left unchecked to run half the length of the field. As well as some offseason tackling practice, some new playing personnel wouldn’t go amiss, with center Jason Kelce announcing his retirement on Tuesday, and Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham possibly playing their last game in green too. And after dropping six of the last seven, I’m sure Head Coach Nick Sirianni will also be ‘having a chat’ with GM Howie Roseman.

Like Green Bay, Tampa fought back from a midseason hole (4-7) and having won six of seven, seem to be revelling in their role as the dark horse slipping in under the radar. Had they faced a stronger opponent, their early drops (half a dozen in the first half alone) might have cost them. But Baker Mayfield, playing through a rib issue, did enough to compensate from his clumsy teammates, racking up 337 yards and three touchdowns. After bouncing around four teams in three years, he seems to have silenced his critics with his best season to date and helped the Buccaneers pillage their third straight NFC South title. But this weekend, he and his butter-fingered receivers will need to be shipshape for a much sterner challenge: a Divisional Round clash with the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. [ST]

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Snow plough Josh

After seeing some of the images of Highmark Stadium on Sunday, it is quite remarkable that we got a game on Monday. The Buffalo faithful came out in force to get the game against Pittsburgh on, albeit a day later than originally scheduled, and as a reward for all their snow-shovelling, quarterback Josh Allen gave them one of the most memorable plays in postseason history. 

Faced with 3rd-and-7 from the Bills 48-yard line, Allen began to scramble. His rookie season was filled with highlight rushes but it has been a part of his game that has been restricted in more recent times. This scramble, however, had picked up enough for first-down yardage and, because he was close to the sideline, you could see plenty of encouragement from his teammates and coaches for him to slide. He didn’t.

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A full 52 yards later, he was in the end zone. He was seemingly aboard a snow plough all of his own after the initial part of his run when it became apparent that the opportunity of getting to the end zone was opening up for him. He turned on the engine boosters as a bunch of Steelers were left floundering and wondering what had just happened.

Allen’s play powered Buffalo to a 31-17 victory over the Steelers. Cue the snow being thrown in the air around Highmark Stadium. Allen finished the rescheduled game by completing 21 of 30 passes for 203 yards and three passing touchdowns. He also ran for 74 yards on eight carries and the score. The touchdown run was the longest rushing score in Bills postseason history and the second-longest by a quarterback ever, behind only Colin Kaepernick (56 yards, 2012 Divisional Round).

Allen’s third career playoff game was marked with four combined passing and rushing touchdowns, tying Joe Montana and Patrick Mahomes for the most in NFL history, and zero turnovers. It was just the second time since Week 4 that Allen did not turn the ball over. A reduction in turnovers by the Bills offense has been tied to Joe Brady taking over play calling in Week 11 and his increase in running the football. From Weeks 1 through 10, Buffalo had a designed rush percentage of 36% and a drive turnover of 17%. Since then, the rushing play percentage has increased to 47 and the drives that end in turnovers has dropped to 10%.

Despite the freezing cold temperatures, it is safe to say the Bills are getting hot at just the right moment. Next up, their kryptonite: the Kansas City Chiefs. Maybe this time, they can get over the hump.

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PICK SIX – Week 18

Well, there you have it. Another regular NFL season, all 18 weeks of it, is behind us. For 14 teams, there’s more to come as the playoffs begin while the rest slink off home to lick their wounds, revise their strategies, assess their on- and off-field personnel and, in a couple of cases, have a good old cry. Probably. In the meantime, Sean Tyler and Shaun Blundell dissect six more exciting, entertaining and intriguing things from the first week of 2024 action.

Ten-win Texans back in the big time

Back in September, the Houston Texans had a rookie quarterback, their fourth Head Coach in as many years and just 11 victories to show for the previous three campaigns. Come Saturday night, they had 10 wins, a bona fide franchise QB, an impressive HC in DeMeco Ryans, a Wild Card place in their back pocket and a shot at the division title. Yes, after three seasons of double-digit defeats, the 10-6 Texans returned to the postseason with a bang, winning the late Saturday night game against their divisional rivals, the Indianapolis Colts. The 23-19 victory in the win-or-go-home contest took them to the top of the AFC South, a position they retained when the Jaguars lost the following day.

Indy’s postseason hopes ended with just 1:06 remaining when, down by six, they turned the ball over on downs on a 4th-and-1 at Houston’s 15-yard line. Inexplicably, after Jonathan Taylor had run 30 times for 188 yards, the Colts’ star running back was kept on the sideline for the crucial play. Gardner Minshew underthrew a quick pass, Tyler Goodson couldn’t reel in and that was that. An odd decision that I bet HC Shane Steichen would like to take back.

While the Texans’ D sealed the deal, it was their impressive attack that stole the show. On their very first offensive snap, CJ Stroud – playing in his first primetime game – threw a bomb half the length of the field, with Nico Collins taking it in stride for a 75-yard TD catch-and-run. And with Tank Dell, Robert Woods and Noah Brown all out injured, the Stroud-Collins connection went on to dominate the game script. The young QB finished with 20 of 26 for 264 yards with two touchdowns and became only the fifth rookie ever to throw for 4,000 yards in a season. Meanwhile, Collins caught all nine of his targets for 195 yards and that early score, taking him over the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his three-year career.

These teams had a combined seven wins between them last season so battling it out for a playoff berth this time around suggests that both rebuilds are well ahead of schedule. Reaching Week 18 with a shot at the division title is clearly a tick in the box for Steichen, and his team could push on next year with a few shrewd additions. Meanwhile, back in training camp, Stroud declared that the Texans would “shock the world” this season… and so it’s proved. He remains the favourite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year while Ryans has a solid claim to be NFL Coach of the Year in his debut campaign. That said, I suspect both would sacrifice individual honours in favour of a deep playoff run. Given their explosive offense and the league’s third-best run defense, Houston’s next opponents –Cleveland – won’t be taking anything for granted in the Wild Card round. [ST]

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From Jordan with love

While CJ Stroud has taken plenty of headlines as the dazzling rookie QB of 2023, maybe more attention should be going the way of a quarterback who only became a full-time starter this year: Jordan Love. Unlike his much-talked-about predecessors in Green Bay, Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, Love can claim the distinction that he is a playoff quarterback in his first season as a full-time starting QB, doing so with the league’s youngest roster to boot.

The upwards trajectory has been gradual. Over the final eight games, Love completed over 70% of his passes and tossed 18 touchdowns against just one interception. For the entire campaign, Love finished second in the NFL with 32 touchdown passes, a 64.2% completion rate and 4,159 yards. All but one of those touchdowns were to either first- or second-year players, highlighting the bright future ahead for this organisation.

With a playoff berth on the line once again, Love had a day to remember and led the Packers to a 17-9 win over visitors Chicago. Love was brilliant, completing 27 of 32 passes (84.4%) for 316 yards. He threw two touchdowns, no interceptions and had a passer rating of 128.6. The man himself was in a reflective mood post-game. “You want to play in big-time games and, when the pressure’s on, just to be able to go showcase what you’re made of,” Love said. “Definitely being on the bench for those three years, and being behind Aaron and wanting to be out there so bad, now that I’ve got my opportunity, just making the most of it, taking it and running with it.”

Love has certainly accomplished that, which is why the Packers finally shone in a huge game – something that, despite his individual brilliance, had been the knock on Aaron Rodgers in recent times. The Packers threw away the playoffs in Week 18 last year but were not to be denied with their new quarterback in situ this time around. 

Next up, the playoffs: a place few believed possible when they sat at 2-5 a few short months ago. With the win, the Packers improved to 9-8, earned the No.7 seed in the NFC and will head to Dallas for a Wild Card game. If Love can continue to show his second half of the season form, it will be a tricky proposition for the Cowboys. [SB]

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Hit-and-miss Bills take AFC East title

At Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium, the 11-6 Buffalo Bills won their fifth straight game, clinched their fourth consecutive AFC East title and locked up the No.2 seed in the conference. Yet six weeks ago, few pundits even had them making the playoffs after a mid-season slump threatened to derail their year. November losses to the Bengals, Broncos and Eagles left the Bills at 6-6 but they’ve bounced back, seeing off the Chiefs, Cowboys and Dolphins in recent weeks. They’re now the only team since playoff seedings began in 1975 to earn a top 2 seed after being .500 or below with five games left.

Buffalo rallied from 14-7 down at the start of the final quarter against Miami to beat their divisional rivals 21-14, and the late turnaround mirrored their entire season to perfection. There were mistakes and missed chances, injuries to the defense and turnovers by the offense. But when it mattered most, they found a way and came up smelling of roses. Fans were treated to the full spectrum of what Josh Allen offers. Bad Josh started the game with three turnovers – two end-zone picks (taking him to a career-high 18 INTs for the season) and a fumble just outside the red zone – but Good Josh prevailed, playing lights out in the fourth quarter (going 7 of 7 for 83 yards). Overall, he threw for 359 yards and two TDs, and led the team with 67 rushing yards, including a signature 15-yard scramble on a 3rd-and-13.

Several of Buffalo’s unsung heroes shared the limelight with their quarterback. WR Trent Sherfield had just 11 catches before Sunday but it was his toe-drag grab at the back of the end zone that gave Buffalo their first TD, albeit from a throw that ricocheted off a Miami helmet. Deonte Harty found a seam and posted an electric 96-yard punt return TD to tie the game at 14-14. And tight end Dawson Knox got the go-ahead score with 7:16 on the clock before Taylor Rapp’s first INT for Buffalo put a full stop on the contest.

The Dolphins, held to just 57 yards of total offense after the break, have now gone 15 straight seasons without a division title and they’ve dropped three of their last five games. But all is not lost; postseason football awaits and everyone has a clean slate. As the No.6 seed, their path to a potential Super Bowl starts in Kansas City on Saturday night, with Tyreek Hill returning to Arrowhead for the first time since his trade. But unless some of their injured stars – Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips and Xavien Howard – return, it could be a tall order.

As for Buffalo, they host the Pittsburgh Steelers at Orchard Park, where they are 7-1 this season. They’re the AFC’s in-form team but Allen’s hot-and-cold play could define how this one goes. Bad Josh might make their Wild Card matchup more competitive than it should be. Conversely, Good Josh, the league leader in passing touchdowns (44), might just blow them away. Will the real Josh Allen please stand up and make himself known? [ST]

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Fitting end for a legend

Sorry Bill Belichick, this isn’t your section. No, this title is for Titans running back Derrick Henry. He gave Tennessee fans some great memories over his eight seasons with the team and it’s only fitting that he should end his tenure (likely) with a final stat line of 153 yards rushing and a touchdown against old divisional foe Jacksonville. It ended a miserable finish to the campaign for the Jags who somehow managed to throw away a playoff berth after leading the division for three months. 

This piece, though, is about Henry. The man simply known as “King” took a microphone post-game and addressed the crowd at Nissan Stadium. “Titans fans, I just want to say thank you for the greatest eight years of my life,” he said. “The ups and the downs, y’all been there for everything — through the adversity, watching me grow as a person and a player, always supporting me. I love y’all. … Hopefully I was an inspiration to all the young kids and everybody in the community.”

Henry’s contract technically goes for two more years, but is out of guaranteed money. With a looming Head Coaching change now also confirmed, it’s very likely his tenure is over. He could find a role on a team somewhere as a short-yardage back but as a running back now in his 30s, his prime is likely behind him.

He became Tennessee’s featured running back in 2019, leading the league in rushing yards and rushing attempts that season – as well as in 2020 – helping the Titans lead the playoffs both times, while earning Pro Bowl honours personally. The next year, Henry became the first NFL player since Adrian Peterson in 2012 to surpass 2,000 rushing yards in a single season. He reached the Pro Bowl two more times, in 2022 and 2023, after injuries limited him in 2021. In total, Henry rushed for 9,349 yards and accounted for 98 total touchdowns during his time in Nashville. 

It is a badge that is given out far too often these days but, Derrick Henry, you sir, are a legend. [SB]

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Jalen hurts finger as Philly falter (again)

At this time of the year, it’s inevitable that some teams find themselves on a bit of a losing streak but they usually have to pack up for the offseason as a result. The woeful Panthers have lost 15 times this season and failed to score a point in their last two games, while the 4-13 Commanders have lost eight on the bounce. The Jaguars lost five of their last six, the Chargers have lost five straight and the Vikings four. None are playing again till September. But the Philadelphia Eagles have lost four of their last five too. Yep, the “11-6, runners-up in the NFC East, 5th seed in the conference” Eagles.

Philly started the 2023 campaign on fire, racing out to 5-0. By early December, their record stood at 10-1 and we all thought emulating last year’s run to the Super Bowl was the minimum they should expect. Then the wheels fell off. In the last six weeks, the Eagles have suffered losses to the Niners, Cowboys, Seahawks, Cardinals – and now a 27-10 defeat to the New York Giants. They look a totally different team now and not in a good way. Their consistency has deserted them and the flair and fun seem to have gone with it.

With three first-half turnovers and some pretty abject defense against a Tyrod Taylor-led Giants team, Philly soon found themselves 24-0 down at MetLife. With defeat all but assured before half time, Nick Sirianni began pulling his starters but even so, it wasn’t soon enough. Jalen Hurts went 7 of 16 for 55 yards before his finger “popped out”, Marcus Mariota joining the fray in his stead, while AJ Brown made one catch for 9 yards before getting his knee banged up. Should the likes of Hurts and Brown have even been on the field? Most would argue “not on your Nelly”, even without the benefit of hindsight. Time will tell if these injuries impact them this weekend or beyond.

In their favour, their Wild Card opponents are the 9-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who won the NFC South despite managing just three field goals in a 9-0 win over the Panthers. They don’t look like a playoff team and are probably the weakest of the bunch on the NFC side of things. But maybe they think the same about the dysfunctional Eagles? Philly have been well below par for weeks and Sunday’s performance didn’t suggest that things are going to change anytime soon. With their season on the line, they have less than a week to rediscover their mojo. [ST]

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Rolex sales spike

Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones backed himself in the offseason to secure his own reworked contract. That included a tidy $1.25 million bonus for accumulating 10 sacks. Thanks to his performance against the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend, Jones was laughing all the way to the bank.

The sack occurred in the third quarter when the Chargers were in the red zone looking to score a touchdown and take the lead. After sacking Easton Stick, Jones ran towards the sideline to celebrate with his teammates, including Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. If you like a big man dancing then, I highly recommend you search out the amusing clip on social media.

Having already secured a place in the playoffs before the game at SoFi Stadium, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid bucked a bit of a Week 18 trend and decided to keep Jones on the field for most of the contest. With the second half underway and time winding down, Reid had initially planned to take his stud defensive tackle out of the game to protect him from injury. Jones, however, managed to persuade Reid to let him stay on the field long enough to secure the sack he needed for his bonus.

It was a nice culmination to the story that took up a lot of column inches in the Chiefs preseason. It was excellent coaching and leadership on the part of Reid to not hold any grudges and allow Jones the opportunity to cash in on the incentive agreed upon the restructure. Above all else, it was also fitting for Jones to make his splash play on his final snap, particularly as he has hinted this may be his final season at Arrowhead.

Jones will not be seeing too much of the bounty, however, as he revealed after the game that the entire defensive line group, including the coaches and coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, would all be treated to a new Rolex. Jones recognises that football is the ultimate team sport and without the help of those around him, he wouldn’t be the star he backed himself to be ahead of the season. [SB]

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Takeaways as the Broncos season ends in disappointing fashion

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After a long and tumultuous 18 weeks, the Denver Broncos season has come to an end with a loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, wilting 27-14 to their division rivals and falling to third in the AFC West. 

The Broncos started the season 1-5 and inevitably dug themselves too big of a hole to climb out of. Despite their five-game winning streak in the middle of the season, they were always on the outside looking in and fell away again at the end of the year going 2-4 to close out the season, missing the playoffs again.

The losing streak to the Raiders continues 

Perhaps, the most disappointing part of Sunday’s loss is the continuation of the Broncos’ losing streak against their bitter AFC West rivals. 

Sean Payton’s team could have bucked two huge losing trends this season had they won on Sunday, having already put an end to their 16-game losing streak against the Kansas City Chiefs earlier in the season. 

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It wasn’t to be however and they got thoroughly outplayed by the Raiders who looked better and more hungry in every facet of the game, from coaching to quarterback play and everything in between. 

To put the icing on the cake, the loss meant that the Broncos have now had a losing record for seven straight seasons ending Payton’s first campaign 8-9. 

The rebuild starts now 

Now the season is over, the conversations will turn to offseason movement in free agency and the NFL Draft which will take place in late April. 

As discussed last week, the Broncos have several big pending free agents who they likely won’t be able to retain if they also take the route of cutting Russell Wilson and eating his hefty dead cap hit. 

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As a result, Denver will likely be constructing a roster of cheap veteran and rookie players next year, unless they can convince some of their stars that remain on the roster to reconstruct their contracts and give the Broncos some breathing room on their cap.

An 8-9 record partnered with a Superbowl-winning head coach, is a great base to rebuild on and defensively Vance Joseph found a formula that clicked in the middle part of the season.

Nonetheless, there are still plenty of holes on the roster that need filling on both sides of the ball, coaching can provide the players with a strong floor, the Los Angeles Rams showed that this season, and perhaps the Broncos will still be able to take positive steps next season.

January blues

It was sealed last week, but the Broncos will be without playoff football in January for the seventh year in a row, the second-longest post-season drought in the NFL currently.

Payton’s team gave it a good shot and for the first time since the 2016, Super Bowl 50 team, it felt like Broncos Country had a team that they could root for and a team that could bring some cheer back to Mile High. 

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Payton brought a sense of optimism back to the Broncos and he has begun to change the culture of this team, it’s clear for all to see when they look at the tape, and the midseason turnaround personified it. 

So while the short-term future of the franchise seems bleak, there are reasons to be optimistic and in a couple of seasons, there is reason to hold out hope that Payton can bring the Broncos back into the AFC playoffs in the future.

Thank you! 

Finally, a thank you from me to anyone reading this week’s takeaways or to anyone who read one of my takeaway pieces this season.

If you’re a general NFL fan then I hope you enjoy the storyline-littered NFL playoffs, and if you are a member of Broncos Country then have hope and get mock drafting!

I hope to see you back again reading takeaways throughout the offseason and into 2024.

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Takeaways as the Broncos’ playoff hopes officially end despite victory

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After their most tumultuous week in the Sean Payton era, the Denver Broncos overcame their lacklustre divisional rivals, the Los Angeles Chargers.

The win ensures they’re still in with a chance of ending with a winning record for the first time since 2016, here are my takeaways from the Broncos’ victory on a bittersweet day in Mile High closing out 2023.

Out of the playoffs

Despite all the improvements this year from last season’s fiasco, the Broncos still fell short and will be absent from the NFL playoffs for an eighth year. 

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They had chances to make the post-season and the ball was in their court on numerous occasions throughout the year including losses to the Las Vegas Raiders, Washington Commanders, New York Jets and New England Patriots at home, those losses have not only cost the Broncos a playoff spot but also a shot at winning the AFC West. 

Hindsight is wonderful and in reality, the rest of the schedule may have played out differently but when looking at the results this season it’s tough to look past the early 1-5 hole the Broncos dug themselves in early this year, which was their downfall.

No dip in QB play

A positive for the Broncos, in the medium term, was their level of quarterback play from Jarrett Stidham didn’t appear to drop off from the level that we saw in the previous 16 weeks with Russell Wilson under centre. 

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The good news about that is, that Stidham’s contract is $242 million cheaper than Wilson’s, so if Payton can get a similar level of production for $242 million cheaper the Broncos may be able to take the dead cap hit if they cut Wilson.

Looking ahead to the off-season 

With the playoffs now out of reach for good, Sean Payton will be casting half an eye to the offseason and assessing who he wants to keep in the building to take the next step forward in his Broncos tenure. 

This season didn’t quite see the ‘fire sale’ most were expecting ahead of the trade deadline, but in the end, it still seems that the Broncos will be letting some stars go in the offseason, just for different reasons than it was in weeks five and six of the season.

As it seems more likely that the Broncos will cut Wilson in the offseason it all depends now on whether he is designated as a pre or post-June 1st cut, which will determine how much of the dead cap hit is eaten by the Broncos in 2024, coincidently determining how extensive the roster deconstruction will be in the summer. 

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A number of stars in the roster will become unrestricted free agents including Lloyd Cushenberry, Josey Jewell and P.J. Locke. 

If the Broncos do decide to take the full brunt of the dead cap hit it would be near-impossible to keep any of the impending free agents around, it would also mean one or two stars would likely have to be traded, or some mega contract reconstructions would have to take place.

Potential future QB auditions? 

About 24 hours after the Broncos closed out their final home match of the season, two of the possible suitors for the Broncos at the quarterback position took the field in the College Football Playoff. 

JJ McCarthy led a game-tying drive late in the Rose Bowl before leading the game-winning drive in overtime to see the Michigan Wolverines make the National Championship. 

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McCarthy is yet to declare for the draft and as a junior he could return to Ann Arbor to compete for the Wolverines in his senior year, but some draft projections have McCarthy as a late first-rounder/second-round talent this year and depending on the Broncos’ draft position, McCarthy could be a target. 

In the later semi-final, Michael Penix Jr. suited up for the Washington Huskies and guided them to the National Championship game, overcoming the Texas Longhorns in New Orleans. 

Penix impressed going into Sean Payton’s old stomping ground and could improve his draft stock more if he takes the Huskies to a National Championship victory next Monday.

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Penix has an injury history which may tank his draft stock somewhat and his projections place him as high as a first-rounder and as low as a day-three pick.

Week 18 preview 

For the final time until September, the Broncos will take the field searching for something to salvage their 2023 season, all that stands between them and a first-winning season in seven years is a trip to the 7-9, Las Vegas Raiders. 

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The Raiders have been without a permanent head coach since the night of Halloween but have gone 4-4 under interim head coach Antonio Pierce including a win over the Chiefs in Arrowhead and a 63-21 dismantling of the Chargers. 

Stidham started the final two games of the 2022 season for the Raiders going 0-2 throwing four touchdowns and three interceptions. 

The Broncos will be hoping to avenge their narrow week one defeat to the Raiders which proved costly at the end of the season.

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PICK SIX – Week 17

Happy New Year everyone, we hope you all enjoyed some NFL action to close out 2023. It’s the penultimate week of the regular season and Shaun Blundell is here to complete the holiday season Pick Six with three things that caught his attention as we head into a new calendar year.

MVP now locked and loaded?

As little as a couple of weeks ago, there was no clear favourite for the NFL MVP award. Fast forward a fortnight and a certain Lamar Jackson seemingly has his hands firmly on the trophy. The latest instalment of Lamar brilliance came as the Baltimore Ravens locked up the No.1 seed in the AFC after a completely dominant display against the Miami Dolphins in Week 17. The final score was an eye-opening 56-19.

It was reminiscent of the opening game of the 2019 season when Jackson took over as starter and orchestrated an offensive masterclass that produced 59 points – ironically also against Miami. Jackson used his legs, running six times for 35 yards and picking up some key first downs. This, however, was mostly about Lamar the passer. Living mostly from the pocket, he gashed the Dolphins defense with throws to eight different weapons. Jackson finished the game 18 of 21 for 321 yards and five passing touchdowns, good for a perfect 158.3 passer rating on the day. Surely, it all but secures that MVP crown.

Jackson may well be the shining light but there is no doubt that Baltimore looks like the most complete team in the AFC heading towards the playoffs. The defense was its usual gritty self and caused trouble for Miami after making adjustments at the end of the first quarter. Geno Stone recorded his seventh interception of the season and Roquan Smith added another pick in this game. Justin Madubike continues his career year with his 13th sack as does Kyle Van Noy, who recorded his 8th of the campaign. Special teams also contributed, with a Justice Hill 78-yard kick return to begin the second half that extinguished any hopes of a miracle second-half Miami comeback.

A day to forget for the Dolphins was capped off with injuries to Bradley Chubb, Xavien Howard and Tua Tagovailoa. They head to a must-win game against the Bills to secure the division title, the No.2 seed and at least the chance of a couple of home playoff games. Meanwhile, the Ravens must now decide how to manage their stars as they have secured the first round bye. A couple of years ago, John Harbaugh regretted not getting some reps into guys in Week 18, so let’s see what he does this time around. [SB]

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Anyone for the South?

Both the NFC and AFC South division titles will be on the line in Week 18. It’s advantage Jacksonville and Tampa Bay at the moment, but three teams in both divisions are still alive heading into the finale.

The Bucs could have wrapped up the NFC South on Sunday but chose the wrong time for an offensive stinker against the Saints. A turnover-laden day meant they had a goose egg on the board until the fourth quarter in a game New Orleans comfortably won by 10 points. Baker Mayfield tossed two picks and Trey Palmer had a key fumble when the improbable comeback was threatened. It keeps the Saints alive when they battle the Falcons this week. Atlanta suffered a 37-17 humiliation to the Bears and another loss next week would surely secure the firing of Arthur Smith… so losing might be beneficial. That game will be irrelevant, however, if the Bucs defeat the Panthers.

On the AFC side, it was a different set of performances that set up the grand finale as all three of the teams in contention found wins. The playoff spot is the Jags’ to lose after they were able to ride the legs of Travis Etienne and the boot of Brandon McManus in a comfortable win over the aforementioned Panthers. They will be hoping to get Trevor Lawrence back this week in a must-win game. The Colts got a good day out of Jonathan Taylor as they outlasted the Raiders. His 96 rushing yards were a season-high mark and the Colts will certainly want more out of their investment moving forwards. The Texans welcomed back CJ Stroud in a comfortable victory over the Titans. I’m sure they are wondering what might have been had he not suffered the concussion that meant he missed the Browns matchup.

The NFL schedule means that either the Colts or the Texans will lead the division as we enter the final Sunday as they have been slated to play on Saturday evening. It will then be over to Jacksonville to see how they handle the pressure in what might end up being the last game for Mike Vrabel as HC in Tennessee. The NFC South will be the feature of the early window on Sunday. [SB]

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Chiefs secure West in unfamiliar fashion

The Kansas City Chiefs winning the AFC West is nothing new. In fact, it is getting repetitive now, to the tune of eight consecutive seasons. We usually purr about the explosive offense, the brilliance of speedy wide receivers, the brute strength of their tight ends or the ridiculous angles Patrick Mahomes releases the ball from to make something out of nothing. This year, however, we are talking about the defense and the kicker.

The champs were in another hole on Sunday, down 10 points to the Bengals who themselves were clinging on to their playoff lives. Jake Browning’s 1-yard scramble at the midpoint of the second quarter that opened up that double-digit lead turned out to be their last points of the day as the Chiefs defense and placekicker took over.

The Bengals mustered four punts and a pair of turnovers on downs the rest of the way. The crucial one – on the opening drive of the second half – saw Joe Mixon stuffed in the backfield by Willie Gay when faced with 4th-and-1 at KC’s 6-yard line. It was one of eight tackles for loss, along with six sacks, as the Bengals offensive line’s woes reopened. Back-to-back sacks on the final Cincy drive was the final nail in the coffin of a season that threatened to be over a month ago. It was officially extinguished as the clocks ticked over to 2024.

The Chiefs themselves moved the ball well in the second half in particular but continually stalled in the red zone. It will undoubtedly be an area that they look to tidy up but on this day, the boot of Harrison Butker proved enough. He was a perfect 6-6 on his field goal tries, with four of them coming from at least 43 yards away.

They may not have reached their usual scintillating levels of performance throughout the season but it is another postseason appearance secured and another contest at least in Arrowhead. The tantalising matchup will see whoever loses this Sunday’s game between the Bills and the Dolphins heading West for the contest. Kansas City may need to rely on the formula of defense and special teams to be the difference maker once more. [SB]

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PICK SIX – Week 16

Merry Christmas, everyone – we hope you had a good one. With Week 16 behind us and Week 17 looming, the NFL is coming at us thick and fast. And with the other demands of the festive season competing for our attention (you know, kids’n’that), we’ve decided to spread our Pick Six over the holiday season. So here, I’ve ‘picked three’ and my partner in crime Shaun Blundell will pick another three next week. We hope you understand. So here’s Puka, Pickens and the Detroit Lions for you.

On the third day of Pickmas…

… GM Les Snead and HC Sean McVay’s true love gave them a compensatory pick in Round 5 of the 2023 NFL Draft. And with that Day 3 selection back in April, the LA Rams chose a wide receiver from Brigham Young University, Puka Nacua. Eight months on, it seems they might have won Christmas with that pick.

Nacua is a very smiley man, has great hands and, according to his latest presser, finds everything “super fun”. Which is not surprising, given that he is fast becoming a solid bet for Offensive Rookie of the Year. With two games of the regular season remaining, Nacua has 96 receptions (third all-time among rookies), 1,327 receiving yards (fifth, but only 147 shy of the record) and five touchdown catches to his name, and now holds the rookie record for games with 150+ scrimmage yards (four), nudging ahead of Randy Moss and Ja’Marr Chase.

Last Thursday night, in the Rams’ 30-22 win over the New Orleans Saints, he may have had his best performance yet, giving all those intending to vote for a certain QB in Houston as OROTY pause for thought. Nacua hauled in nine receptions for a season-high 164 yards, including a 2-yard touchdown, recovered an onside kick and earned a first down with a 9-yard run that allowed LA to run out the clock.

Ever since Week 1, Nacua has given Matthew Stafford someone reliable to aim for while Cooper Kupp recovered from injury. While Kupp missed the first four games, Nacua had three 100-yard outings. His unexpected success has been a key reason why the Rams – tipped by many (including me) to struggle this year – have won five of the last six. That run has seen them rise from 3-6 to 8-7 and as the sixth seed in the NFC, their chances of postseason action are now up to 67%. If Nacua can help LA reach the playoffs and take the OROTY title in the process, I think that makes this season an unqualified success. [ST]

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Slim Pickens for Cincy

After three straight losses, two of which were to 2-10 teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers were looking like an old boxer, on the ropes and out of fire power. But there’s something about playing their AFC North foes from Cincinnati that gets them fired up. On Saturday, they came out of their corner like Mike Tyson in his prime and sent the Bengals home from Acrisure Stadium with two black eyes and a bloodied nose.

The Steelers were averaging just 16 points a game this year and have scored 30 points just twice in the last two seasons: the home game against the Bengals last year and the equivalent fixture this weekend. In amassing 397 total yards and 34 points, their two stand-out players this time were third-string QB Mason Rudolph and wide receiver George Pickens, who faced criticism for his lack of effort against the Colts last week. Together, these two unlikely heroes combined for almost 69% of their team’s passing yards and if you had that on your Christmas bingo card, I’d be staggered.

After their poor run of form, Mike Tomlin gave Rudolph the nod over Mitch Trubisky and it paid dividends from the off. On their second play of the game, the 58th quarterback to start an NFL game this season found Pickens on a post route. It should’ve have been a 10-yard gain but the former Georgia Bulldog turned on the afterburners and left the Cincy secondary for dead on an 86-yard TD catch and run. But Pickens wasn’t done by any means. On a career day, he also caught a 66-yard TD pass from Rudolph, leaving CB Chidobe Awuzie in his wake, and made a spectacular 44-yard catch, somehow getting both heels in bounds as he fell backwards clutching the ball. All told, Pickens racked up 195 yards and 2 TDs on just four receptions.

On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh’s depleted D (without four safeties and three inside linebackers) only shipped 11 points, held the Bengals to 59 rushing yards and sacked Jake Browning three times. They also secured three INTs, courtesy of Eric Rowe, elevated from the practice squad, Patrick Peterson, who was playing safety to cover for injuries, and Alex Highsmith.

After three losses, the Steelers came to play this week – and play they did. The loss dumps Cincinnati out of the AFC playoff picture (10th) but the victors are also on the outside looking in, just one spot ahead. With two games left, either of these 8-7 teams could still mathematically make the postseason but it’s increasingly unlikely. But whatever transpires over the next fortnight, the Steelers have swept the Bengals and can at least claim bragging rights over their divisional rivals till next season. [ST]

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Lions keep pedal to the metal

Head Coach Dan Campbell has done what no one else has done since 1993: win a divisional title with the Detroit Lions. And in the words of his beloved Metallica, Nothing Else Matters.

The Lions dispatched their rivals from Minnesota with a 30-24 win that gives the team their first playoff berth since 2016, and their first-ever NFC North crown. There’s been a steady improvement under Campbell, from his inaugural 3-13 campaign, through last year’s 9-8, to their current record of 11-4, which equals their most wins this century. If you include last season’s 8-2 finish, Campbell’s Lions are 19-6 over their last 25 games, making him a worthy Coach of the Year candidate.

The win against the Vikings saw Detroit’s defense come away with four interceptions and four sacks, but Nick Mullens did gash them for over 400 yards. Still, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St Brown did the business offensively. Gibbs ended up with 100 scrimmage yards and two rushing TDs while St Brown added 12 catches for 106 receiving yards and a touchdown, becoming only the fourth player in NFL history to have 300+ receptions in their first three seasons. After the win, Campbell got emotional as he dedicated the win to the “old guard” of players who suffered through the team’s barren years.

With this latest triumph in an impressively consistent campaign, the Lions keep themselves in the hunt for the NFC’s No.1 seed and are now assured of finishing no worse than third in the conference. This means that Ford Field will host a playoff game for the first time since it opened in 2002. The division-clinching victory also means that Campbell and his players have the opportunity to end the franchise’s 32-year wait for a postseason victory. So while it was a Merry Christmas in the Motor City, the team need to keep grinding down the stretch to make sure the fairytale doesn’t end after chapter 1. [ST]

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Takeaways as a disastrous third quarter all but ends the Broncos’ playoff hopes

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Denver were so close to finally making the playoffs, all they had to do was win their final three games, all against backups and all against AFC teams with losing records. 

After the loss to Detroit, Sean Payton’s team had to be flawless if they were to make the postseason, unfortunately, they fell at the first hurdle and an old nemesis, the New England Patriots sealed the Broncos’ fate. 

Here are my takeaways as the Broncos’ playoff hopes came grinding to a halt in primetime.

Reality Check

Perhaps this result was a message from the football gods, a reality check to remind Broncos fans of the reality of this roster, in truth it just simply isn’t good enough yet to make the playoffs, they showed us that earlier in the season.

Despite a rejuvenation that showed there is hope for the future, when it gets to crunch time this team still lacks the pieces to get themselves over the line and show they’re a proper playoff unit. 

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There are reasons for Broncos country to be optimistic for the future, and for nine weeks Sean Payton and Vance Joseph had the team riding a wave, unfortunately, the playoff train is over. 

Third quarter woes

The Broncos went into halftime winning seven to three, it was a lacklustre offensive first half but the defence kept an underwhelming New England offence in check. 

It seemed like the recipe for success was just for the Broncos’ offence to move the ball on one or two drives early in the second half and they could get over the line.

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In reality, the opposite happened and a disastrous third-quarter showing took the Broncos from a probable playoff team to middling mediocrity.

Bailey Zappe did well navigating the soft Broncos pass rush climbing up in the pocket on a couple of drives that resulted in Ezekiel Elliott and Mike Gesicki touchdowns to give the Patriots a 17-7 lead before Marvin Mims fumbled the kickoff into the oncoming Patriots who carried it in for another score putting the Patriots up 23-7. 

A snowball of errors paired with some questionable playcalling and poor quarterback play saw the Broncos fall too far behind the Patriots to mount a comeback. 

Some good high-tempo offence and more explosive playcalling saw the Broncos march down the field twice in quick succession to draw level, but in the end, the Patriots managed to get into field goal range and put the game away for good.

Offensive play calling

It wasn’t until those two drives in the fourth quarter when the Broncos were backed into a corner that the gameplan shifted from running between the tackles on first down, outside on second down, then a long developing route concept on third down, before Riley Dixon stepped on to punt on fourth down. 

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Sean Payton deserves a lot of credit for how he’s changed the culture of this group and they’ve come a long way from where they were under Nathaniel Hackett last season. 

Nonetheless, in the last few weeks the offensive play calling has been questionable and when the opposition stops the run Payton seems to be reluctant to call any high-tempo offence or any explosive offence that threatens to take the top off of the opposition’s defence.

Whether that’s because he doesn’t trust his quarterback or whether he just trusts indefinitely in his offensive scheme is up for debate but somewhere, the playcalling needs to change and become less predictable. 

Offseason movement?

Now the Broncos don’t have to think about the post-season, they can start to look to the offseason beyond and think about who will move on the roster. 

The biggest questions come on the offensive side of the ball, what happens at quarterback? Are there any more offensive line additions? Where do they look in the draft? 

The future of Russell Wilson is in question, his contract is so big but this offseason is the cheapest ‘out’ they will have across the entire extension he was given in 2022. 

There’s a very real possibility that George Paton (if he’s still there), takes the dead cap hit for 2024 and looks to the draft for a rookie to sit behind an affordable veteran for a year or two. 

It was announced on Wednesday that Wilson would be benched in place of Jarrett Stidham for the final two weeks of the season, this doesn’t necessarily mean that Wilson’s fate is sealed and some journalists have speculated that the front office is just protecting themselves against a $37 million that Wilson would get guaranteed if he got injured. 

Whoever is the general manager next season has a dilemma to make at the quarterback position as well as with underwhelming receiver Jerry Jeudy (who attracted trade interest earlier in the season) and centre Lloyd Cushenberry III who will be hitting free agency in the offseason but will command a sizeable fee if his services are to be retained.

Week 17 preview

On Sunday it will be Stidham who takes the field against the Chargers with the Broncos’ playoff hopes hanging by a thread. 

Two weeks ago the Broncos brushed the Chargers aside 24-7, since that game both teams have lost two games in a row and the Chargers moved on from head coach Brandon Staley. 

It will be a game between backups as the Chargers will continue to field Easton Stick under centre while Stidham will take the snaps after Wilson’s benching. 

The Chargers will be hoping to not be swept by the Broncos for the first time since 2019, whilst the Broncos are looking to keep their playoff hopes alive in week 18 and chase a first winning season since 2016.

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Playoffs: Who’s in and who’s out in the AFC? 

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It’s that time of year when we start seeing graphics on X (formerly known as Twitter) from ESPN, FOX and CBS about who is eliminated from playoff contention and who has clinched a playoff berth. 

While the AFC has some frontrunners the race for the wildcard spots is encapsulating viewing, for example, the AFC South has three teams on 8-6 alone. 

Let’s dive into the playoff picture, see who everyone still has to play and how the playoff picture may end up working itself out. 

The locks: 

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While this article is mostly about discussing the convoluted wildcard picture, we should pay homage to the teams at the top of the conference who are already locks to make it in. 

The Baltimore Ravens have already clinched their place in the playoffs, while the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs are definitely making the playoffs and will be playing at least one home game this January. 

Watch out for the week 17 clash as Miami heads into Baltimore in a matchup that could define who earns the all-important one seed in the AFC.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 

The Jaguars get their own tier because they’re definitely in, but aren’t 100% locked into the top of the AFC South (yet).

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Their schedule is one of the easiest down the stretch, they travel across Florida to play the resurgent, playoff-chasing, Tampa Bay Buccaneers this weekend before playing the Carolina Panthers and Tennesee Titans who are both out of the playoff picture. 

Jacksonville should win out from here thanks to their head-to-head record against the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans, if they can achieve that they will be top of the AFC South and earn themselves the fourth seed in the AFC.

Cleveland Browns:

The Browns are in and Kevin Stefanski needs to be nominated for Coach of the Year after his miraculous work with this team despite all of their injuries. 

They’re 9-5 and probably need one more win to solidify their position in the playoffs, (albeit a wildcard place due to the Ravens’ record atop the AFC North) their schedule is a tough one though. 

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Facing exclusively AFC opponents, Joe Flacco will be the signal-caller as they head to the Texans and the Cincinnati Bengals on either side of a home meeting with the New York Jets. 

While they’re all but in themselves the Browns could play a huge role in the rest of the AFC Wildcard picture playing two of the chasing pack both on the road.

The rest

Now, we’ve named five teams who are in for sure, most seasons we’d be discussing three or four teams who are fighting it out for the final two wildcard spots. 

Not in 2023, this year the AFC is a gauntlet, we have a six-horse race for the final two wildcard spots as we head into the latter part of December. 

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As of week 15, the Bengals and Colts are occupying the final two spots with 8-6 records, just outside because of tiebreakers are the Bills and Texans, while the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos are a game back at 7-7. 

Four of the six are playing backup quarterbacks and the Broncos and Bills have both experienced torrid runs at some stage this season. 

Yet somehow, with three weeks to go, every team is in the thick of the playoff race and it’s looking to be the most compelling run-in we’ve seen in a while. 

Who does everyone face? :

Buffalo Bills (8-6) – @ Chargers, vs Patriots, @ Dolphins 

Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) – @ Steelers, @ Chiefs, vs Browns 

Denver Broncos (7-7) – vs Patriots, vs Chargers, @ Raiders

Houston Texans (8-6) – vs Browns, vs Titans, @ Colts 

Indianapolis Colts (8-6) – @ Falcons, vs Raiders, vs Texans

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7) – vs Bengals, @ Seahawks, @ Ravens 

Who’s in and who’s out? : 

It’s impossible to call, none of these teams convince you that they’re going to run away with it and stroll into the wildcard places, but we can make some educated predictions. 

By the end of week 18, there’s the possibility that we see three teams with 11-6 records in the wildcard spots and two teams sitting on the outside looking with 10 wins and no postseason to show for it, on the contrary, in the NFC we could see teams with losing records make it into the playoffs.

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Buffalo Bills (Current record: 8-6, vs division 2-2, vs AFC 4-5, AFC games remaining – 3, Ninth seed)

Starting with the Bills, they have been rampant since losing to the Broncos on Monday Night Football in early November, despite being unlucky in the early half of the season they’re now earning their own luck and convincingly stringing together strong performances. 

They beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead and blew out the Dallas Cowboys at home, building some strong momentum ahead of their final three games. 

Given their form they should brush past the Chargers and the Patriots and Bills Mafia will have their trip to division rivals, the Dolphins in week 18 earmarked as a potential ‘win and in’ game. 

What complicates that, of course, is Miami could still be playing for the one seed in week 18 so won’t be pulling any punches, conversely, the Bills could find themselves in a situation where, if they win they win the entire AFC East, but if they lose they don’t make the playoffs at all.

Either way, it promises to be a show-stopping game that will likely head the national Sunday Night Football billing in week 18. 

Key game: Week 18 @ Miami Dolphins

Prediction: 10-7

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Cincinnati Bengals (Current record: 8-6, vs division 0-4, vs AFC 3-6, AFC games rem. 3, sixth seed)

When Joe Burrow got hurt it felt like most of the league had given up on the Bengals, no one would have been talking about them being a leading horse in the AFC playoff picture as of week 16. 

As it turns out, Lou Anarumo’s defence has done excellently keeping them in games allowing backup quarterback Jake Browning to play with little pressure and do enough to get them across the line in close games.

The Bengals face a tough schedule though and it’s difficult to see them going any better than 1-2 over this stretch. 

The best they can hope for is beating Pittsburgh on the road (an extremely tough task) and then beating the Browns who may have nothing to play for in week 18 at home. 

Key game: Week 16 @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Prediction: 8-9

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Denver Broncos (Current record: 7-7, vs div. 2-2, vs AFC 4-5, AFC games rem. 3, 11th seed)

The Broncos have the easiest schedule of the chasing pack and do hold the tiebreaker over the Bills as well as facing three beatable AFC opponents in their final three games. 

After starting 1-5 no one expected the Broncos to be anywhere near this conversation and it’s a credit to Sean Payton and Vance Joseph that the Broncos have a chance to make it in. 

The Texans hold a tiebreaker over the Broncos which could be a key factor to follow but facing three backup quarterbacks against teams that have nothing to play for may come into the Broncos’ favour.

Already being a game back at 7-7 their task is simple, you MUST win out and hope some of the teams around them drop games against other playoff chasers, or perhaps even slip up on a nonchalant game against a team that is already eliminated.

Key game: Week 18 @ Las Vegas Raiders

Prediction: 10-7

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Houston Texans (Current record: 8-6, vs div. 2-2, vs AFC 5-4, AFC games rem. 3, eighth seed)

Demeco Ryans is the probable front-runner for Coach of the Year, and for good reason. He’s totally transformed the Texans from a number-one pick candidate to a playoff contender overnight. 

CJ Stroud’s play at quarterback has been phenomenal and stands him in good stead to pick up the Offensive Rookie of the Year award at NFL Honours this February.

However, with Stroud in concussion protocol and Case Keenum starting at quarterback, partnered with a tough schedule featuring two playoff contenders and a division rival, the Texans face a huge challenge to make it in. 

They’re capable of beating anyone on their day and their next two games being at home helps massively, but they won’t want to be in a position requiring them to win on the road in Indianapolis in week 18 if they can help it.

Key game: Week 18 @ Indianapolis Colts

Prediction: 9-8

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Indianapolis Colts (Current record: 8-6, vs div. 3-2, vs AFC 6-4, AFC games rem. 2, seventh seed

The Colts have been on a rollercoaster ride in 2023, going from inconsistent, yet mesmerising play under rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, to the return of ‘Minshew Mania’, the Colts have continued to defy the odds. 

They have the best standing of any of the teams we’ve discussed because their divisional and conference records are superior to any team, but they also have one of the more inconsistent track records of any of the teams that we’ve looked at. 

They scraped past the Patriots in Germany, had a shootout with the Browns, were blown out against the Bengals and blew the Steelers out themselves, it’s so difficult to try and place the Colts on this list because they can go toe-to-toe with the best, but drop a game to absolutely anyone. 

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In week 16 they will head to the Atlanta Falcons who are a game back from the playoffs in the NFC South but are coming off the back of an embarrassing loss to the Carolina Panthers last week and somewhat mirror the Colts in their inconsistencies. 

Arthur Smith is on the hot seat and has resorted to his third quarterback change of the year opting for Taylor Heinicke and this is a game that the inconsistent Colts could drop given their record across the season as previously highlighted.

In their last two games, they welcome the Raiders who can cause any team problems on their day under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, and then fellow AFC South playoff hopefuls the Houston Texans in week 18. 

They’re the toughest team to place but given their divisional and conference records they’re certainly the favourites to make the wildcard round out of all the teams in the race. 

Key game: Week 18 vs Houston Texans

Prediction: 11-6

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Pittsburgh Steelers (Current record: 7-7, vs div. 3-1, vs AFC 5-5, AFC games rem. 2, 10th seed)

It’s well-documented that the Steelers have never had a losing record under head coach Mike Tomlin in his 16 years as head coach in the Steel City. 

While that streak could very much continue it’s difficult to see a scenario where the Steelers come out of their last three games as a wildcard team. 

They’d need to run the table due to their 7-7 record and they face three teams all with their eyes set on the post-season themselves. 

They welcome the Bengals in a huge game on Saturday before travelling across the country to Seattle to play the Seahawks who are currently one game out of the NFC wildcard picture before heading back across to Baltimore in week 18 who may be playing to secure the one seed. 

It’s certainly plausible that the Steelers win two of those games to preserve Tomlin’s streak but they will need to win out to even stand a chance, of getting into the playoffs. 

Key game: Week 16 vs Bengals 

Prediction: 8-9

Final Prediction: 

  1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4) 
  2. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) Head-to-head tiebreaker vs Miami
  3. Miami Dolphins (12-5)
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6)
  5. Cleveland Browns (11-6) Head-to-head tiebreaker vs Indianapolis (WC)
  6. Indianapolis Colts (11-6) (WC)
  7. Denver Broncos (10-7) Head-to-head record vs Buffalo (WC)
  8. Buffalo Bills (10-7) (OUT)
  9. Houston Texans (9-8) (OUT)
  10. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-9) Division record tiebreaker (OUT)
  11. Cincinnati Bengals (8-9) (OUT)