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PICK SIX – Week 7

Week 7 of the 2023 NFL season didn’t disappoint when it came to talking points. So much so that our regular scribes, Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler, were hard pressed to pick just six of them to unpack. But after some deliberation and cogitation, they settled on this little lot for your reading pleasure. Enjoy.

National Tight Ends Day

There are many awareness-raising and promotional days in the calendar and some are odder than others: National Talk Like a Pirate Day. National Men Make Dinner Day. Kiss A Ginger Day. National Cheese Toastie Day. And of course, National Tight Ends Day.

Yes, the fourth Sunday in October has been designated National Tight Ends Day by the NFL since 2o19, when a mic’d-up George Kittle joked that TEs should have their own holiday. This year, Kittle made a music video – featuring some Niners’ teammates, cameos from various TEs around the league and some historic footage of former greats – to celebrate the importance of the position.

So it was almost written in the stars that tight ends were going to play a big role in Week 7. Inevitably, the Chiefs’ Travis Kelce led the league in receiving (12 catches for 179 yards and a TD), as he and Patrick Mahomes celebrated their 50th scoring connection. And with his fifth game of 150-plus yards, Mr Taylor Swift is now only one behind the all-time leader, Hall of Famer Shannon Sharpe.

Not to be outdone, a tight end also led the league in receiving touchdowns. A drumroll for the Ravens’ Mark Andrews, please. Baltimore (more about them shortly, Ravens fans) destroyed the previously 5-1 Detroit Lions 38-6, thanks to an MVP-level performance from Lamar Jackson and a solid outing from Andrews. No.89 corralled four targets for 63 yards but two of them went for TDs: an 11-yarder and an 8-yarder either side of halftime.

We can’t move on without acknowledging that funny little dance that Mike Gesicki does when he scores. The Patriots tight end was entitled to his celebratory not-quite-a-griddy as he snagged the game-winning score against the Bills with just 12 seconds left on the clock – a tight end to a game if ever there was one (other dad jokes are available). The catch at the back of the end zone secured an unexpected 29-25 victory against their divisional rivals and keeps the AFC cauldron bubbling away nicely. [ST]

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Signs of life at Mile High?

It was only four short weeks ago that the Denver Broncos were on the wrong end of a 70-point drubbing at the hands of the Miami Dolphins. Fast forward a month and back-to-back decent defensive displays have allowed some small chunks of positivity to be found in the floundering franchise. After completing a 19-17 victory over the Packers, they have now kept their opponent under 20 points in consecutive games. Yes, Green Bay have their own issues but the other opponent in this mini revival was the Kansas City Chiefs.

Let’s not get carried away here though. Yes, the defense has improved but it is still not playing anywhere near Broncos units of years gone by. Too many penalties, not enough men on the field at times, missed tackles… you get the drill. Kareem Jackson was ejected for the second time this campaign after a vicious hit early in the fourth quarter. For those keeping score, he has already had four unnecessary roughness penalties with fines now close to $100,000. It’s hard to imagine that a suspension is not going to be forthcoming. It is systematic of the lack of discipline in the side.

Editor’s note: Jackson has indeed been suspended for four games for his consistent infringements of the unnecessary roughness rules.

Where the defense may offer some signs of life, the offense is really struggling badly. Russell Wilson was improved from last Thursday’s horror show, he couldn’t be much worse. However, it was another game with under 200 yards passing and only two receivers, Cortland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, registered catches. There is a lack of commitment to the running game, even though individually Javonte Williams is running pretty well. A reverse play that netted the only stat of the day for rookie Marvin Mims Jr. went for minus 11 yards.

Sean Payton was brought in to turn around the franchise and “save” the Russell Wilson trade. As we approach the halfway point of the year, it’s fair to question if it’s a forlorn hope. [SB]

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D-fence!

Many of our favourite players make the highlight reel catches and the spectacular touchdowns. After all, that’s the aim of the game. But I do love a last-gasp defensive play that somehow prevents an all-but-guaranteed score. As they say, the guys on the other side of the ball get paid too and this weekend, two of them definitely earned their corn. As it was, neither play affected the final result but that shouldn’t take anything away from their efforts.

The first one was in the Falcons game in Tampa Bay. With six minutes left and the score nicely poised at 13-10, Atlanta had the ball at the Buccaneers’ 12-yard line on a 1st-and-goal. After a faked handoff, QB Desmond Ridder went left and took a direct line to the pylon, looking to run in his second score of the day. Holding the ball in his right hand, he was almost level with the line when Antoine Winfield Jr. swooped in from behind and punched the ball down, out of Ridder’s hands. The Atlanta players still celebrated, as the initial ruling on the field was that their guy had crossed the plane before losing the ball, but on review, that decision was overturned. In the end, the Falcons held on to win 16-13 but that amazing play from Winfield nearly cost them.

The other piece of phenomenal defending came in the Browns’ 39-38 win over the Colts in Indianapolis. In a thoroughly entertaining end-to-end game, every drive seemed to matter. With half a minute remaining, it looked like Cleveland – trailing 38-33 at the time – had got a vital go-ahead TD on a 1st-and-goal. PJ Walker, deputising for an injured Deshaun Watson, dinked an absolute dime to David Njoku, as he made his way to the front-left corner of the end zone. The 6’4” tight end jumped up, arms aloft, and literally had the ball between his hands when his blue-clad shadow, Rodney Thomas, reached in between his mitts and somehow knocked the ball away. Alas for Indy, Kareem Hunt managed to run in the crucial game-winner 15 seconds later but it was a hell of a play by Thomas nonetheless. [ST]

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Ravens offense joins the party

The Baltimore Ravens have been a tricky team to get a read on. A very good defense, certainly. The offense? Despite a 4-2 record heading into Sunday, it hadn’t been much to write home about. Then Sunday happened.

The Detroit Lions, full of praise and expectation after their own start to the campaign, were put to the sword by a first half offensive masterclass by the Ravens. They took their opening four drives for touchdowns as they opened up a 28-point cushion by the interval. Lamar Jackson rushed for one, threw for two more and Gus “The Bus” Edwards also crossed over. A four-play, 94-yard drive to open up the second half (after turning the Lions over on downs) was the final nail in an already pretty tightly sealed coffin.

The red zone, which had proved problematic recently for Baltimore, was also a big success this weekend. Those opening four touchdown drives all ended through a trip into the red zone. They would end the day with a five out of six touchdown conversion rate against such trips by the end of the day. The reliable Justin Tucker kicked a field goal on the other occasion. 

It was Jackson’s best performance of the season by some distance. He was decisive with his legs and more than efficient with his arm. His 357 passing yards were his most since way back in October of 2021. He has seemingly found himself a new favourite target alongside Mark Andrews in rookie Zay Flowers. With Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman also getting back up to full fitness, it suddenly seems as though Baltimore has a slew of options with which to attack teams with. 

On their day, the Ravens are a match for anyone and must surely be considered in the Super Bowl conversation if the offensive output stays at this level. [SB]

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Maher culpa

Though it pains me to admit it (as a Bengals fan), there were plenty of positives on show as Pittsburgh travelled west and beat the LA Rams on their own patch. We should’ve seen it coming, as HC Mike Tomlin rarely loses when he’s given a bye week to prepare for his next opponents.

The highlights include an impressive return from IR for wide receiver Diontae Johnson, who gave his sleep-walking teammates – they’d only scored three points in the first half – a much-needed jolt with five catches for 79 yards. Kenny Pickett and George Pickens (107 receiving yards) seemed to click and Najee Harris caught the eye with some nifty hurdling down the sideline. On the other side of the ball, an interception from TJ Watt saw him become only the second player since 1982 with 70-plus sacks and seven-plus interceptions in their first seven seasons.

The Rams weren’t without notable moments of their own, not least a 154-yard performance from Puka Nacua, the backfield committee of Royce Freeman and Darrell Henderson gaining 127 yards between them and two sacks by Michael Hoecht. But on a night when Cooper Kupp was restricted to just two catches for a paltry 29 yards, they needed to lean on kicker Brett Maher. 

Alas, Maher – who signed just before the season started – got a case of the yips, much like he did last postseason for the Cowboys when he couldn’t kick an extra point for love nor money (he missed four of five in the Wild Card game against the Bucs). The wheels seem to come off again on Sunday, despite playing in the controlled conditions of SoFi Stadium. He doinked a 53-yard FG attempt off the left upright, missed a PAT and then missed another field goal, veering left again from 51. Maher did make a 41-yard kick but you don’t need to be a mathematics professor to calculate the importance of those seven missed points in a game that ended 24-17.

The failed extra point was his first such miss of the season but he’s now missed six of his 23 FG attempts. Sunday was his third game this season with multiple misses, leaving him ranked 29th out of 33 kickers. No wonder HC Sean McVay said “We’ll look at it and we’ll see, but he’s got to be better.” Maher himself coughed up a bit of post-match mea culpa, saying: “I’m just a little disappointed for the team. I feel like I could have made a very positive impact on that game and didn’t do my part today.” [ST]

Editor’s note: Maher was released by Rams HC Sean McVay on Tuesday. With no other kicker on the roster, the search for a replacement begins.

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Al Michaels, it’s time to go

I appreciate commentary is a matter of personal choice and opinion. For me, hearing the likes of Kevin Harlan on the play-by-play or the analysis of a recent player such as Greg Olsen doing the colour commentary job improves my enjoyment of the game. Put simply, a commentator should enhance your experience and not ruin it. You only have to look at the reported $165 million that ESPN paid out to bring Joe Buck and Troy Aikman to Monday Night Football for the broadcasters understanding of this too. Which leads me to Al Michaels.

It must have been quite the coup for Amazon when they were announced as the exclusive broadcaster for Thursday Night Football. Michaels had been the voice of Sunday Night Football for many years and, as such, had built himself a reputation for being the man for the big occasion. There have been signs of decline in his output over the past 18 months with the lack of enthusiasm in his voice being the real noticeable difference. Thursday Night saw a new low point.

With the Jaguars and Saints tied at 24 points each and time winding down, Michaels completely botched what turned out to be the game-winning play. Trevor Lawrence dropped back and found Christian Kirk, who ran an excellent whip route against Tyrann Mathieu. Kirk managed to sprint past and in-between multiple Saints defenders on his way to a 44-yard touchdown reception. 

“Christian Kirk, inside the 20, and he goes… and Christian Kirk takes the ball all the way… to about the 1-yard line,” the 78-year-old said while pausing during the play. Then, while Kirk celebrated the touchdown with his teammates, Michaels said: “They’re gonna spot it as [Kirk] thinks he scored the touchdown… And they’re gonna call it a touchdown now.”

He was nowhere near the sideline so I have no idea what Michaels was watching. In terms of enthusiasm, you would be forgiven for thinking Michaels was commentating on a chess game as opposed to an NFL contest. It’s no doubt hard to walk away from something that you love but I’m sorry Al, it’s time to go. [SB]

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PICK SIX – Week 5

We’re five weeks into the season and we – Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler – are here to pick six more things that caught our eye in the last round of games. This week, our interest-o-meter was set off by the Bears waking up, the Bills going to sleep and the Steelers defying all logic, plus CJ Stroud, Brock Purdy and Bill Belichick. Let’s pick the meat off the bones.

Bears emerge from hibernation

It’s fair to say that Chicago have not been having any fun lately. They came into Thursday night on a run of 14 losses stretching back 350 days (the longest losing streak in their 104-year history). They had just squandered a 21-point lead to the Broncos. Their DC resigned in Week 2. Exiled WR Chase Claypool was shipped off to Miami. And before the game, the passing of franchise legend Dick Butkus was announced.

But, as the saying goes, it’s always darkest before the dawn and on TNF, they – one of the league’s two remaining winless teams – finally got the dub they’d been so desperate for. The Bears travelled to Washington to face a feisty Commanders team that took the Eagles to OT the previous week and despite starting as six-point underdogs, they got a deserved 40-20 victory. They shot out to a 27-3 halftime lead but unlike last week, the Bears didn’t buckle when injuries, not least to RB Khalil Herbert, started to bite. Indeed, they sacked Sam Howells five times.

But it was the connection between Justin Fields and DJ Moore that decided this matchup. Despite only completing 15 passes to just three different players – Moore, plus tight ends Cole Kmet and Robert Tonyan – Fields (282 passing yards/4 TDs) torched Emmanuel Forbes and Kendall Fuller all night. With 617 yards, eight TDs and one INT in his past two games, he suddenly seems to have found his groove.

Moore was the main beneficiary, with a career-high (and TNF-high) 230 receiving yards and 3 TDs from just eight catches. That haul makes him the first Bears player in the Super Bowl era with 200+ receiving yards and 3+ receiving TDs in a game. Moore’s numbers were boosted by chunk plays of 58, 56, 39, 32 and 20 yards, and he could’ve had another big TD had a fourth-quarter bomb not been overthrown.

So, after an entire year of losing every which way, the Bears – and HC Matt Eberflus – can finally enjoy a W. Which means you can drag that meme, which showed Chicago as the only franchise across the big four US sports leagues (NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL) that hadn’t won a game since Elon Musk bought Twitter in October 2022, off your desktop and into the recycle bin. [ST]

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Stroud and proud

It has been a record-breaking start to a career for Texans quarterback CJ Stroud and during the Week 5 21-19 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, he added more records to his name. He has now started his young NFL career with 186 passing attempts without throwing an interception. That mark eclipses the 176 attempts made by Dak Prescott when he started in the NFL and sets the new benchmark for 2024 and beyond.

It is one of those stats that could be meaningless, however. Essentially tossing the ball into the stands on every play would avoid an interception but wouldn’t be an ideal gameplan to win in the NFL. The fact is, Stroud has accomplished this feat while playing well and pumping much-needed life and optimism into the Texans franchise.

He may not have had his best game on Sunday but the big players show up in the big moments. Down by 6 with just under seven minutes to go, Stroud orchestrated an 11-play, 75-yard drive that culminated in a beautiful 18-yard touchdown strike to tight end Dalton Schultz. It moved the Texans in front but it would be the last time Stroud touched the football as the Falcons managed the clock, to kick a game-winning field goal as the clock hit zero.

It would not be an understatement to suggest that Stroud doesn’t have the most stellar of supporting casts. With that said, it seems as though the Texans have found the answer at the most important position on the field. Stroud is giving his team every opportunity to win, he is not turning the ball over and he will surely only continue to get better and better. Houston may have found a really good one. [SB]

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To err is human

These days, everything is ‘smart’: our TVs, our central heating, our phones, pretty much every piece of tech has gone beyond automation and is now seemingly capable of sentient thought. The robots will soon take over, believe me, and the revolution seems to have started, ever-so-quietly, in the most unexpected of places: among the ranks of NFL quarterbacks.

Last month, Chicago QB Justin Fields blamed his ‘robotic’ play on his coaches, who were feeding him too much information. That’s just what a robot would do, isn’t it – blame us unpredictable, flawed humans for making him look too mechanical. Not convinced? OK, fair enough. But how do you explain Niners quarterback Brock Purdy?

The last name picked in the 2022 NFL draft has now been at the helm of 10 straight regular season wins since starting for the 49ers. He is a machine – literally. The so-called Mr Irrelevant has yet to lose (other than the time he had to leave the field in the first quarter against the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game, presumably to have a circuit board resoldered or his mainframe rebooted). He had just one incompletion last week against Arizona and has yet to throw an interception five games into the new season. In his latest outing – Sunday’s 42-10 trouncing of Dallas – he went 17 of 24 for 252 yards and a career-high four TDs, three of them to George Kittle. He’s improving week by week without regression: that’s machine learning for you.

Broadcaster Kyle Brandt, the co-host of Good Morning Football, has this running joke that Purdy is an AI experiment. He’s had some fantastic rants about Purdy not bleeding, sweating or even blinking, and his conspiracy theory has even been picked up by the UK press. “I think there is a conspiracy that will certainly come out years from now that they wanted the first artificial intelligence player,” he told The Mirror. “They’re like: ‘We need to start introducing AI into the game.’”

It’s obviously just a bit of fun but what if he’s actually right? With someone (something?) this consistent, this dependable, you can’t rule it out. Maybe it’s a Truman-Show-style social experiment but until Purdy shows that he’s fallible – and I’m not talking about them programming an algorithm into the matrix to make him appear more human – I’m with Kyle. Brock Purdy’s a machine, the 49ers are going 17-0 and the day the robots take over is closer than you think. [ST]

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The GOAT keeps being slaughtered

It’s been a long time since we’ve heard the boo birds at Gillette Stadium but this Sunday, they were out in full force. It’s been a quiet three years post-Tom Brady, with most fans giving Bill Belichick plenty of time and grace to rebuild the powerhouse franchise of the first 20 years of the millennium. Those heady days of winning 17 out of 20 divisional titles, nine conference championships and six Super Bowls feel like a lifetime ago.

For New England, the head coach is still the face of the franchise, and therein lies the problem. Name a superstar on the New England roster. You can’t. They don’t have any that you could name. But they do have plenty of journeymen. Ezekiel Elliot last played quality football three or four years ago. JuJu Smith-Schuster was the Steelers’ number 1 receiver three or four years ago. Hunter Henry, the tight end, may have become something special in San Diego – and no, that isn’t a typo, that’s how long ago it was. And I haven’t even mentioned Brady’s ‘replacement’, Mac Jones, as that’s a whole other story.

Normally, a Belichick defense will at least keep things tight. How does shipping 72 points in two weeks sound? The Cowboys are a team that can rack up points on any given week but the Saints? New Orleans had scored less than 21 points in 10 straight games, yet they rocked up to Foxborough and put up the biggest shutout scoreline against the Patriots in their history (34-0). 

The quote from the press conference Belichick used after the game was: “So just plain and simply, we’ve got to find a way to play and coach better than that. So that’s what we are going to do: start all over and get back on a better track than we’re on right now.” Maybe the answer is that the Patriots truly start again and hand the keys over completely, as this current version of New England is a mirage of what once was. [SB]

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No jet lag for the Jags

On reflection, the second International Series game of the season, a 25-20 win for the Jaguars over the Bills at Tottenham Stadium, didn’t quite live up to the hype. The game only kicked into life midway through the fourth quarter, when the teams traded four TDs – two each. Until then though, it had all been rather attritional, with the defenses on top and offenses struggling to fill the highlight reel.

Sure, the Jags secured their second win on these shores in a week and deserved to move to 3-2. Trevor Lawrence threw for 315 yards but only one TD – the game’s opener to Zay Jones – leaving the bulk of the damage to be done by Travis Etienne (136 yards and 2 rushing TDs) and Calvin Ridley (seven catches for 122 yards). They did have some trouble with drops and fumbles, but their D stepped up when needed, forcing the Bills to punt six times and leaving them with under 22 minutes of possession.

Beforehand, this clash looked to be one of the better of the 35 contests to be staged in our capital, and many – me included – were expecting a shootout. Both teams are tipped for postseason action and the Bills, who had scored 123 points in their last three games, were arguably the hottest team in the league. Yet they rarely showed it. Josh Allen threw for just 23 yards in the first quarter, the Bills mustered 29 rushing yards all game and they committed 11 penalties for 109 yards. With Greg Rousseau, Tre’Davious White and Shaq Lawson already out, Matt Milano leaving early with a broken leg, DaQuan Jones also injuring a pec and the returning Von Miller on a snap count, it was mainly left to AJ Epenesa (with two of his team’s five sacks) to keep things competitive on the defensive side. A scoreless third quarter meant that theoretically, everything was still to play for but the Jags looked in control and always stayed a score or two ahead.

On Friday’s media day, Stefon Diggs called his QB ‘sleepyhead’ and Allen himself admitted to having “a few coffees” to stay awake, even though he doesn’t normally drink the stuff. Then in the post-match presser, he confessed “We never felt like we got into a rhythm until late in the game.” Which does make you wonder: how much of a factor is the international travel? The Buffalo team flew in to the UK overnight on Thursday and stayed up to practice on Friday, in an attempt to overcome the five-hour time dfference. But it didn’t seem to have the desired effect, with the Bills looking like they had yet to acclimatise or adjust to a game that kicked off at 9.30am Eastern time.

By contrast, Jacksonville had been in London for 10 days, having beaten Atlanta at Wembley the week before. I guess the success of the Jaguars’ extended stay makes back-to-back games in London more likely in the future, but it also raises the question as to whether it will give them a massive advantage. [ST]

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The Steelers top the North. How?

“The AFC North: toughest division in football” is a line often thrown around by commentators. But after five weeks of the season, the toughest thing about it is figuring out if any of the teams are actually any good. There is a solitary game between the four divisional rivals after the opening quarter of the season. The team at the top? The one with a minus 31 point differential: the Pittsburgh Steelers.

In an awful game full of mistakes and miscues from both sides, the Steelers somehow managed to conjure up 14 points in the 4th quarter to beat the Baltimore Ravens 17-10. It started with a safety on a blocked punt. The next drive resulted in a field goal so the Steelers were just two points behind. The final seven minutes of the game were simply bizarre.

The Ravens punted again but this time the Steelers muffed the return, setting up Baltimore at the Steelers 7-yard line. Lamar Jackson inexplicably threw an interception. The Steelers edged towards field goal territory when Kenny Pickett unleashed his best pass of the day, 41 yards to George Pickens, for a touchdown. It surprised everyone in the stadium and it also gave Lamar the ball back with 1:17 to go. He fumbled, and the ball was recovered by TJ Watt. Surely it was game over?

Even then, Pittsburgh seemingly didn’t want the win. They knelt twice, forcing the Ravens to use timeouts, and were going to kneel a third time. But on the play, there was an illegal procedure so it brought up 4th down after running just 13 seconds off the clock and going backwards 6 yards. They kicked an FG but that still left Lamar with one last chance of redemption… until a Watt sack on 4th down ended the game. Somehow, Pittsburgh improved to 3-2.

Surely the Steelers won’t win the division playing like this? They are, however, consistent in that they know the limitations of their offence and play behind a big play defence that has 11 turnovers through five games. The rest of the division needs to sort out their Jekyll and Hyde play because as always, Mike Tomlin will get the Steelers to at least .500 by hook or by crook. [SB]

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PICK SIX – Week 4

Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season is now in the books and Sean Tyler is back to pick six more things worthy of discussion and dissection (while Shaun Blundell spends his bye week taking in the first of this season’s International Series games). But enough of the preamble. David Montgomery, Khalil Mack, Mac Jones, the Super Bowl favourites, Lamar Jackson and the battling Denver Broncos: you have my attention!

David finally slays his Goliath

Cast your minds back a couple of years to October 2021. Sealing a 24-14 win over the Bears at Soldier Field, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers ran in a late TD, then turned to the crowd and yelled “I own you! I still own you!” It was unnecessarily provocative but factually correct, as he’d just secured Green Bay a 20th win in 23 encounters.

That day, Bears RB David Montgomery was on IR but during his four years there, he lost all seven matchups against the Cheeseheads. But things are different now. In the offseason, he moved 400 miles due west to Detroit – another divisional foe – and on Thursday night, at Lambeau Field, the Lions won 34-20, their fourth straight win against Green Bay. Montgomery finally beat his old nemesis and while Rodgers himself was no longer there, I bet the taste of victory was no less sweet.

He was undoubtedly the workhorse of the game, carrying the rock 32 times – the most by any player this season – for 121 yards. He also rumbled into the paint for a career-best three touchdowns, from 3, 2 and 1 yard out, and had two catches for 20 yards for good measure.

Sure, his average (3.8 yards) suggests volume over efficiency but it was one hell of an effort, considering he missed last week’s game against Atlanta with a thigh injury and was questionable for this one. “To come out here with these guys and get the dub, that’s big for me,” he told reporters. “I can now tell my son that I beat the Packers!”

Another new experience for the former Iowa State man is sitting on top of the NFC North. Chicago never finished higher than second when he was there and the Lions haven’t won the division for 30 years. So after two big road victories (having won the season opener at Arrowhead), you can’t begrudge the 3-1 Lions – and especially Montgomery – their lofty perch. [ST]

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The cream always rises to the top

Before the season, the four teams with the shortest Super Bowl odds were the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers and Eagles. Well, whaddya know: Kansas City and Buffalo are up at the top of the AFC standings at 3-1 while in the NFC, San Francisco and Philadelphia are the only two teams in the league with a 100% record.

After wobbly starts on the opening weekend, the Bills and Chiefs have rediscovered their mojo. Buffalo lost 22-16 to the Jets on the first MNF of the season but have since despatched the Raiders, Commanders and Dolphins while scoring 123 points. This weekend’s 48-20 destruction of Miami was a Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs masterclass, with Allen posting four passing TDs, an 11-yard rushing score and a perfect 158.3 passer rating. The main beneficiary was Diggs, who totalled 120 yards and caught three of those TD passes. Suffice to say, the Bills are looking scarily good right now and should put on a show for UK fans this Sunday.

The Chiefs also bounced back from an opening-day defeat to the Lions with wins over Jacksonville and Chicago, and then eeked out a 23-20 victory over the Jets in Sunday’s late game. They built a 17-0 lead, on the back of a 115-yard/1 TD rushing performance from Isiah Pacheco but two uncharacteristic INTs from Patrick Mahomes at least made it interesting. Nonetheless, the big red machine marches on and they currently sit where you’d expect: top seed in the AFC.

In the other conference, the Niners have looked imperious, scoring exactly 30 in wins over the Steelers, Rams and Giants before seeing off the Cardinals 35-16 this weekend. Unsurprisingly, the stars of the show were once again Brock Purdy (20 of 21 for 283), Brandon Aiyuk (148 receiving yards) and the irrepressible Christian McCaffrey. As well as rushing for 106 yards and 3 TDs, he also made seven catches for 71 yards and another tuddy. Run CMC’s 459 rushing yards this season put him almost 100 ahead of his nearest rival already.

Matching them win for win are the Eagles, carrying on from last season’s Super Bowl run with barely a blip, despite changing both offensive and defensive coordinators. After Ws over the Patriots, Vikings and Buccaneers, they needed OT to see off a spirited Commanders side this weekend. Luckily, AJ Brown (175 receiving yards, 2 TDs) was in the mood and Philly stay undefeated with a 34-31 victory.

So, there you have it. It’s a little demoralising for the other 28 franchises to see the usual contenders setting the pace already but if you had a flutter on one of them to go all the way, you’re probably feeling pretty chuffed so far. Let’s see if they can keep up the pace. [ST]

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Lamar: last man standing in the North

The general consensus is that the AFC North is the NFL’s most competitive division this year. The Bengals had won back-to-back titles, signed Joe Burrow to a historically large contract and brought in Orlando Brown Jr to sure up the O-line. The Ravens signed Lamar Jackson to a mega-deal, picked up Odell Beckham Jr off the street and got all their guys back after two years blighted by injuries. With Myles Garrett and Za’Davius Smith in their ranks, Cleveland are by far the strongest of the four defensively and, as we like to say here at F10Y headquarters, “the Steelers won the offseason” so even their tails were up.

But a month is a long time in football and after just four games, it’s all starting to unravel for three of these teams.

Let’s get the big one out of the way first: the 1-3 Bengals are absolutely awful this season! At the bottom of almost every metric you can think of, the offense is (if you’ll excuse the mixed metaphors) clearly hamstrung by Burrow’s calf injury. He’s almost immobile in the pocket, which makes him a sitting duck. With just three TDs in four games, two outings with only a field goal to show for their efforts, including Sunday’s 27-3 loss to the Titans, and a suddenly leaky defense that let Derrick Henry rumble for 122 yards, run in a score and throw a TD pass as well(!), you can make a solid case for them being the worst team in the league at the moment.

So, to Pittsburgh, now 2-2. Kenny Pickett amassed 15 of 23 for 114 yards and an INT before leaving the field during their 30-6 loss at the Houston Texans with a knee injury. And their defense let the improving Texans rack up 451 yards of offense. For now at least, they contemplate life with backup Mitch Trubisky flinging the pigskin, which surely can’t be a good thing, can it?

And what of the 2-2 Browns? Their defense is, as expected, a force to be reckoned with but again, offensively, there are issues. Nick Chubb’s ghastly knee injury a couple of weeks ago left their running game severely weakened for the rest of the year and on Sunday, Watson was replaced by debutant Dorian Thompson-Robinson due to a shoulder injury. The rookie stand-in completed 19 of 36 for 121 yards, threw 3 INTs and his team scored just three points in a 28-3 humbling by Baltimore. Room for improvement there, for sure, but at least they have a bye week to help them reset.

The 3-1 Ravens are not without their own injury woes, with their left tackle and two receivers missing on Sunday. But they are at least the last of the four teams with a fully fit starting QB… and it’s Lamar Jackson. On Sunday, he ran in two TDs, threw for two more (both to Mark Andrews) and only had four incompletions all day. So it seems whoever’s missing from their ranks, Jackson can still carry the team on his back.

As expected, it’s been attritional and much of it hasn’t been pretty, with the Bengals sinking, the Steelers struggling and the Browns regressing. And unless something changes quickly, the AFC North already looks like its Baltimore’s to lose. So much for competitive. [ST]

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Return of the Mack

The LA Chargers gave up at least 24 points in their first three games and Joey Bosa was sidelined for Sunday’s clash with the Raiders. So was rookie QB Aiden O’Connell – making his first start for Las Vegas in place of Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion) – going to get an easy ride of it? Not on your nelly.

Step forward 32-years-young Khalil Mack. The edge rusher posted double-digit sacks every year from 2015 to 2018 (with Oakland and Chicago), but his team needed him to wind back the clock and regain that kind of game-changing form. And boy, did he prove he can still bring the heat. Mack recorded all six of his team’s sacks, only one short of tying the NFL’s single-game record set by Derrick Thomas in 1990. In so doing, he joins Thomas as the only other player with multiple games with five-plus sacks. Mack now goes straight to the top of the current NFL sack race, joining (the other) Josh Allen and TJ Watt with half a dozen each.

Terrorising the team that drafted him back in 2014, Mack was a one-man wrecking crew who just couldn’t be contained. Coming off both sides like a heat-seeking missile, he also logged nine tackles, five tackles for loss, 10 QB pressures and seven QB hits, giving O’Connell a torrid debut. To say Mack’s sack attack was pivotal to the Bolts securing a 24-17 win is definitely the understatement of the week.

As HC Brandon Staley said afterwards, “He’d been close to having three monster games. Today, he put it all together. This guy’s one of the best edge players of his generation. He’s still that guy.” [ST]

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The comeback kids

Those of you who watch Red Zone on DAZN/Game Pass will be familiar with the Witching Hour. That’s the point, late in the 6pm Sunday window, when Scott Hanson tells us, in his scariest Halloween voice, “it’s the time when wins become losses, and losses become wins”.

Well, you can tell we’re in October already because there was something spooky going on this Sunday. Take the clash between the Rams and Colts, for example. It all seemed plain sailing for Los Angeles, who took a 23-0 lead midway through the third quarter. But once Scott had delivered his line, the witches cast their spells.

A 35-yard TD pass from Indy QB Anthony Richardson to tight end Moe Ali-Cox and a 2-point conversion: 23-8. Then, a missed field goal by the Rams’ Brett Maher followed by a 1-yard rushing TD by Richardson: 23-15. A short TD pass to Andrew Ogletree and another 2-point conversion: 23-23! Frustratingly, once parity was reached, the teams traded punts, the comeback stalled and OT was needed. The Rams finally prevailed, with that man Puka Nacua getting his first TD of a standout debut season, but the Colts deserve a lot of credit for their supernatural 23-point comeback.

Then there was the game between the winless Bears and Broncos. Chicago had built up a 28-7 lead with less than half a minute left in the third quarter so again, enough for a first win of the season, surely? You’d have thought so but no sooner had “when wins become losses” been uttered, the momentum switched and the Broncos went on a stampede.

With 20 seconds left of Q3, Russell Wilson connected with Brandon Johnson for a 4-yard TD. The Bears punted their next possession away and Denver roared back on a 12-play, 70-yard drive that culminated in a Courtland Sutton score. The ensuing Chicago drive ended with a sack fumble of Justin Fields, which Jonathon Harris returned for six. The 21-point deficit was erased in about 8 minutes, and there was still time for the Bears to hand the ball over yet again after a failed 4th-and-1. One magnificent 48-yard play by Marvin Mims later, Denver were in field goal territory and Wil Lutz’s trusty boot secured an unlikely but very welcome 31-28 victory.

So, however big your team’s lead is going into the final quarter, assume nothing – and beware the Witching Hour! [ST]

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Bill and Mac: most heinous

I usually prefer to focus on the positive and the impressive but sometimes, you can’t avoid the tales of woe. So let me introduce you to the main characters of my last observation this week: Mac Jones and Bill Belichik.

On the face of it, the Patriots’ 38-3 gubbing by the 3-1 Cowboys in the late window (what is it with teams scoring 3 points this week?!) wasn’t great. Dallas took last week’s disappointing loss out on New England, who now fall to 1-3. With CeeDee Lamb catching Dak Prescott’s one passing TD and fullback Hunter Luepke running in the only score on the ground, it was again the Cowboy’s defense that starred in this one. Leighton Van Der Esch scooped up the ball for a TD after Jones had the ball stripped out by Dante Fowler, and DaRon Bland jumped a cross-field pass for another pick six (the replacement for the injured Trevon Diggs bagged another INT too). But what makes this game all the more incredible is that it’s the worst defeat Belichick has presided over in his 29 years as head coach. Wow.

Now, you don’t lose by 35 points without several things going wrong and there are many directions in which irate Pats fans can point their accusatory fingers. Some will definitely be aimed at the sieve-like offensive line, and many more at their ineffective quarterback. Jones completed just 12 of 21 pass attempts for 150 yards and turned the ball over three times, leading to 18 points for the opposition, before he was hooked late in the third quarter. His replacement, Bailey Zappe, only competed four throws, which at least makes the news that Jones will start against the Saints this week slightly more palatable.

“We obviously didn’t do much of anything well enough to be competitive tonight,” Belichick said afterwards. “I think we’re a lot better than what we showed out there tonight, but that’s what we showed. That’s what it was. We’ve got a lot of work to do to perform better.”

As the other great mind called Bill (from Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure) once said, “the only true wisdom consists of knowing that you know nothing”. So Bill B, forget the last 29 years and go back to the drawing board. [ST]

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Rookies of the Preseason

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With the preseason now over, it’s time to introduce my new format for the rookie articles going forward. Rather than focusing in-depth on just three, I’m going to choose a top seven and post a shorter review, allowing for an easier-to-digest look at the rookies making their mark. So with that, let’s crown the seven rookies of the preseason!

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Aidan O’Connell, Quarterback – Las Vegas Raiders

A solid showing, playing in all three games and finishing with 43 completions on 62 attempts for 482 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. He was rewarded for his outstanding preseason with a spot on the 53 man roster.

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Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Quarterback – Cleveland Browns

An impressive 37 completions on 58 attempts, 440 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. Couple that with 96 yards and a rushing touchdown on five rushing attempts, and you see why DTR has jumped up from fourth on the depth chart to backup QB.

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Emanuel Wilson, Running Back – Green Bay Packers

An undrafted free agent topping the preseason rushing charts? Yep, that’s what happened with Wilson, who finished with 223 yards and two touchdowns on 38 carries. The 24-year-old made his case for a roster spot and got his wish on Tuesday.

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T.J. Bass, Offensive Guard – Dallas Cowboys

Another free agent who had a solid showing in his three games Bass played 130 snaps, allowing 0 pressures and 0 penalties across 80 pass-blocking snaps. That showing took him from buried on the depth chart to on the 53 man roster

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Nick Herbig, Outside Linebacker – Pittsburgh Steelers

Herbig had the NFL’s leading pass rush win rate in the preseason, as well as 3.5 sacks, eight stops, and one forced fumble. With T.J. Watt ahead on the depth chart, he’ll likely be a rotational option, but his speed and versatility will see him have opportunities this season.

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Steven Gilmore, Cornerback – Detroit Lions

You already have enough pressure when you are an undrafted rookie, but when your brother is Stephon Gilmore, you’ll get comparisons too. Luckily, Steven balled out! 131 snaps, two interceptions, four pass breakups, eight tackles, and a passer rating of 37.0 allowed. All stats that helped him get that roster spot

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Blake Grupe, Kicker – New Orleans Saints

Grupe, who has battled for the kicking job against Will Lutz, can hold his head high. One conversion from one attempt on extra points and five from six on field goals, with his only miss being a wide right on a 60-yarder He obviously impressed the Saints enough as Lutz was traded meaning Grupe is the new kicker.

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5 things to look out for in Week 18

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Week 18 is here! As the season draws to a close, there are five games with playoff spots riding on them

1. This one’s for Damar

After an emotional week, the Buffalo Bills will be out to play for their hero, Damar Hamlin. After the contest was abandoned, the NFL has chosen not to replay the game to avoid scuppering the traditional schedule.

Because both teams have played one fewer game than the rest of the league, some rules have been put in place to ensure a ‘fair’ playoff seeding. It’s safe to say that the Bengals are displeased.

Due to those rules, and Kansas City beating Las Vegas last night, Buffalo cannot be the number-one seed, but are playing for the opportunity to have the AFC Championship game at a neutral site, should they face the Chiefs.

2. A big opportunity for Skylar Thompson

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Miami’s playoff hopes are riding on Skylar Thompson, the team’s third-string rookie quarterback. After Teddy Bridgewater dislocated his pinky finger in Sunday’s loss to the Patriots, Thompson will make his second start of the season.

The collapse of this team has been rather spectacular, losing five straight after being in the mix for the one seed just a few weeks ago. It’s fair to say they’ve been rather unlucky, but the Chargers and 49ers games were inexcusable. A win and a New England loss will send them to Buffalo or Cincinnati next week.

The New York Jets were eliminated after a loss to Seattle last weekend. They will start Joe Flacco in place of Mike White, who is out with a rib injury. If the Jets win, they would have swept the Dolphins this season.

3. Mike Tomlin, the winner

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Mike Tomlin has done it again! His Pittsburgh Steelers would have yet another winning season with a victory over Cleveland today. No-one would have been expecting that two months ago.

If both Miami and New England lose, which could very much happen, the Steelers would even make the postseason. This all comes after winning seven of their last nine games.

They’ve won those games in typical Pittsburgh fashion, by an elite defense. Tomlin and Teryl Austin’s unit have only allowed more than 17 points once in that nine-game stretch.

4. Could the Seattle Seahawks sneak in?

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Seattle are still alive, just. They looked to be out of the playoff picture before pulling off a win over the Jets seven days ago. A victory would put pressure on the Green Bay Packers later this evening.

Pete Carroll’s team had lost three straight before that victory. The Seahawks would make the postseason with a win over the Rams on Sunday and a Detroit Lions win over the Packers.

Baker Mayfield will start what could be Sean McVay’s final game as an NFL coach. The reigning Super Bowl champion head coach looks set to go into broadcasting, whilst Baker will try to impress in his final audition for a starting job somewhere next season.

5. Packers, Lions close out the regular season

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After an against-all-odds run of wins, the Green Bay Packers look destined for the playoffs. And rightly so too, the postseason would be better with Aaron Rodgers in it.

As for their opponent the Detroit Lions, if the Seahawks lose to the Rams, they will take the last spot in the wildcard round with a win over their division rival tonight.

With the most riding on this game, it was sensible to pick it as the regular season closing Sunday Night Football matchup.

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One Fed-Up Takeaway From the New Orleans Saints Dismal Defeat In The Steel City

The Saints dropped to 3-7 after a dreadful display against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, and there is simply only one takeaway that matters after another putrid defeat. Dennis Allen is not the answer for the Saints, and he should not be the coach after this season. Below I explain why.

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Dennis Allen Is Not It

At the start of this season, there were very high expectations for this Saints team. Michael Thomas was back. They signed Jarvis Landry and Tyrann Mathieu. Brought back pretty much all of the coaching staff that had been a part of the very successful 2017-2021 seasons. 

The NFC looked weak, and so did the division. The runway was clear for a much-improved season after the injury-riddled 2021 season ended, with the team still winning nine games. How could this team be worse than that one with all the additions to an already talented roster?

One element was drastically overlooked, replacing a hall-of-fame level HC in with a coach who, in his first stint as an HC was fired after 2.5 seasons with an 8-28 record. Going from Sean Payton to Dennis Allen has not only not worked this season but has also set this team back for years to come.

The word of the off-season was continuity the Saints wanted to keep around the people that had helped Sean Payton build one of the winningest franchises during his tenure. In theory, this is not a bad plan. However, where this ultimately is a fatal floor, and this is the same with most coaches who come from the Belichick coaching tree as well. You can’t try to maintain the same culture the hall of fame HC did without that HC around to enforce and implement it.

Saints Twitter has been on fire since the first few weeks of the season with the mantra that DA is not the answer, I’ve tried to remain patient and make excuses to myself why things will improve. Injuries are the biggest excuse to rationalise the poor performances and to convince me things could and would improve. 

After Sunday’s performance, my patience ran out. Yes, there were again a monumental number of injuries to key starters. However, the bigger issues with this team, which have been present since the start of the season, are still present and still causing the team to lose.

At some point, that must come down to the HC, and for me, Sunday was my breaking point. Fundamentals are coached, and a culture of accountability for basic mistakes comes down to the coaches. For that to still not be in place ten weeks into the season is flat-out malpractice.

This team misses tackles constantly, sometimes turning minimal gains into huge ones and sometimes turning plays that should be a loss into plays that net positive yardage. Whichever way you slice it, basic tackles are not being made, and it’s been a consistently frustrating issue all season that should have been addressed and stamped out by now. 

The defense is Dennis Allen’s side of the ball, and for that side of the ball to have been the biggest issue of all, with the talent they have, the blame can only go to one person. 

The Saints are tied for third as the most penalised team in the league (72 penalties), have some of those calls been questionable? Absolutely, for example, I think all three DPI calls on Sunday against the Steelers were pretty poor calls, but it’s clear officiating has been inconsistent across the whole league.

However, the Saints lead are tied for the most False Start penalties in the league with 19 and are, by far, in a way leading the league in defensive holding penalties with a massive 15. The next closest is Green Bay, with 11. After that, it’s the Colts with 9. For perspective, the Chargers led the league last season with 15 defensive holding penalties across the 17-game season. The Saints are one behind that now, after only playing ten games.

Yes, some of these penalties are being committed by backups, but at this stage, they’ve had to play enough snaps due to injury that this should be stamped out by now, or they simply should not be playing. Calvin Throckmorton alone has accounted for five false start penalties, FIVE! He’s hardly a star on this team. Honestly, he’s not played at all well in his snaps this season. So, bench him, make an example that these mistakes won’t be tolerated, and do something to send a message that things have to change.

This all comes back to the HC. Is it fair to put all the blame on him? No, probably not this team has faced an ungodly amount of injuries that would be hard for anyone to overcome, including Payton. But my issue with the Dennis Allen operation is the inability to fix the problems that have been evident all season, and he’s shown a complete inability to do so.  

Would these problems with false starts, missed tackles, etc..  still be a problem if Sean Payton remained the coach? in my opinion, absolutely not.

Dennis Allen was an excellent DC for this team, something that I never thought I’d say after the Saints went through many legendary failures to find a competent DC over the years. Unfortunately, DA is not the answer as an HC, and because of this and the front office’s blind faith in him, they have set the team back for years to come. How you might ask? 

Well, because of misguided faith, the Saints traded away their first-round pick for the upcoming draft, which at this stage, they will be lucky if it’s not in the top 10, it could easily be in the top 5. In a draft, many are touting to have 4/5 top-tier QB prospects. With a first-round pick this year, the Saints could have hit the reset button on the franchise in the best way possible, but finding a young QB to build around, a young QB to give the fans hope.

Instead, we get to hear all off-season how the juggernaut Eagles team with very few holes, who made it deep into the playoffs, an Eagles team who may well win the SuperBowl pulled off the heist of the century and because of it, are now picking in the top 10. 

Unfortunately, firing DA would only be the start. The Saints need to then dip into the tombola of luck that is the HC hiring cycle, where it’s much easier to find the next Dennis Allen than it is to find the next Sean Payton. With no first-round pick, an aging roster, one of the worst cap outlooks in the league, and, crucially, no answer at QB. The list of potential suitors is likely to be shorter than it once would have been.

Sorry if you’re reading this, and I was hoping for a more positive outlook. I’ve tried that all season, and after Sunday, enough is enough. Buckle up Saints fans. The next few years could be a bumpy ride but don’t worry too much we are all going through this pain together.

For more Saints articles- https://www.full10yards.co.uk/saints/ 

Please let me know your feedback on this article and the others throughout the season. I’m always looking to improve and add things that people want to read about!

Follow me on Twitter and Instagram @SaintsReportUK, for much more Saints content and discussion.


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Analyzing Three Key New Orleans Saints Matchups Vs. The Steelers

The Saints are again wounded, this team just can’t seem to shake the injury bug, and unfortunately, it always seems to be key players that are missing time. But, at this stage, it doesn’t matter; one game back from the lead in the NFC South, the Saints need to start stacking victories.

These three matchups are the keys to securing a crucial victory.

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Saints Rushing Attack Vs The Steelers Front Seven 

Last week against the Ravens, the Saints offense crumbled when I couldn’t run the ball. It’s as simple as that. This offense goes as far as the running game will take them.

Against the Ravens it felt like as soon as it didn’t work on the first drives, Pete Carmichael caved and conceded that it wasn’t going to work, so we aren’t going to try.

That can’t happen this week, the Steelers on paper are relatively similar to the Ravens against the run. They have the personnel to execute the blueprint the Ravens showed last week to shut down the Saints rushing attack. Fast LBs, a big, experienced, and disciplined defensive front.

The Steelers enter Week Ten ranked seventh in the NFL in YPC given up (4.2 YPC) and will be getting reigning defensive player of the year, DE T.J. Watt, back after he tore his peck earlier in the season. 

The Saints will also be without two of their starting offensive line, which adds to the level of difficulty this week, but they have to find a way to be the bully we’ve seen in previous weeks.

That does not mean running Alvin Kamara up the gut 20 times. That means actually using Taysom Hill, running QB Power (arguably the league’s most effective play), and not giving up if it doesn’t work the first time.

We saw what the Andy Dalton-led offense looked like last week without a running game. We can’t see it again this week in a game the Saints can’t afford to lose.

Saints Defense Vs Fundamentals 

The Saints actually had a good plan on Monday night vs. Lamar Jackson, but the fundamentals of defense let them down, Tackling and coverage. 

The defense had 13 missed tackles on against the Ravens, which is a problem that has plagued the team all season. Many of those looked to be when the defense tried to corral Jackson.

The Saints blitz Lamar more than they have any other QB this season. I think the plan worked the problem was the execution. There were several times when Lamar should have been sacked or stopped for minimal gain, but the defense missed him. One play that springs to mind as an example Marcus Davenport came screaming off the edge and had Jackson for a sack but aimed high. Jackson slipped the sack and rushed for a first down (for reference, 4:20 in the 2nd quarter).

There were other examples of this all game.

The final issue was blown coverages. It looked like the Saints defense blew several against the Ravens, where players either didn’t know their assignment or couldn’t get lined up in time to execute it,

This should not be happening this far into a season, especially with the amount of experience the Saints have in the secondary. These coverage errors led to the Ravens first touchdown and plenty of first-down passes, some on big third downs.

The Saints will be without Marshon Lattimore again this week and could be without Marcus Maye and P.J. Williams as well this weekend. Meaning the depth of this secondary will again be tested. 

The Steelers offense is not a good one on paper, so giving them free big plays through missed tackles and blown coverages is a recipe for a long, frustrating game for the Saints.

Saints Defense And Turnovers.

If the Saints do play disciplined coverage, that should lead to turnovers.

The Saints still only have two interceptions on the season; only the Giants have fewer. That is putrid production from a secondary which such talent, The team as a whole only has seven takeaways, with one of those coming on special teams. Seven takeaways ranks second to last in the league, tied with the Dolphins and Commanders. Only the Raiders have less (5).

This is one of the main reasons for the team’s slump this year. They are last in the league in turnover differential at -10. 

This week the defense squares off with rookie QB Kenny Pickett, a player the Saints were rumored to have really liked in the draft this past season.

If you look at his numbers so far this season, PFF has charted how he does against pressure, no pressure, blitzed, and not blitzed.

It makes for interesting reading. Usually, QBs, especially rookies, perform better with a clean un-pressured pocket. It’s clear that’s not the case with Pickett.

So far, Pickett has thrown seven of his eight interceptions when he’s had a clean pocket. That’s a sign when a team makes Pickett read the defense and make the right decisions, he isn’t, and it forces the ball into windows that aren’t there.

It looks like sending four rushers, even if they aren’t being that effective ( and I think they would be), and making Pickett decide where to go with the ball with plenty of players in coverage could be a recipe for success this Sunday.

For more Saints articles- https://www.full10yards.co.uk/saints/ 

Please let me know your feedback on this article and the others throughout the season. I’m always looking to improve and add things that people want to read about!

Follow me on Twitter and Instagram @SaintsReportUK for much more Saints content and discussion.


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Five guys named woe

Whether you’re a fan of the NFL as a whole or more of a Fantasy Football aficionado, chances are you want to see the stars of the game perform well. You want the best players to fill the highlight reel week after week but inevitably, sometimes, they struggle.

In contrast to my last article about players who are exceeding our expectations, let’s take a look at a few players who are currently having some problems early doors and how they might get out of their funks.

Matthew Stafford

The issue: Throwing interceptions

Following a 24-9 loss to the San Francisco 49ers on MNF, the Los Angeles Rams are 2-2 through four games for the first time in the Sean McVay era. Sure, the Niners D looked pretty stout but the Rams offense was also culpable. All three of their red zone trips resulted in nothing more than field goals and inside the 20, Matt Stafford went 1-of-6 for -2 yards. Yikes! He was also sacked seven times and threw a game-sealing pick-six. All “self-inflicted wounds” according to McVay.

The costly interception means that Stafford now has a league-high six, after throwing five in the first two weeks against the Bills (3) and the Falcons (2). In addition, after throwing a scoring pass in every game last season, up to and including the Super Bowl, Stafford has played back-to-back TD-free games for the first time since 2016. Not good numbers for a guy who signed a four-year, $160 million extension this offseason.

In Stafford’s defence, his O-line is populated with back-ups and stand-ins. There’s nothing happening in the run game (Cam Akers had 13 yards in eight rushes on Monday). And his wideouts aren’t getting open (Allen Robinson had two catches from six targets for a paltry seven yards in the same game). All this means he’s trying to force-feed Cooper Kupp. Kupp had 14 catches on 19 targets for 122 yards on MNF; no other WR had more than two catches. But telegraphing everything to his WR1, even when double-teamed in tight windows, means opposing defensive backs are filling their boots.

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How to fix it: Spread the targets out

McVay and Stafford need to put their heads together to sort out this misfiring offense. I think it starts with bringing Akers, Robinson et al into the game more, rather than relying on Kupp. Stafford is a good QB on a team chock-full of stars so they just need to let the others shine, starting against Dallas on Sunday.

Melvin Gordon III

The issue: Fumbling the ball

Gordon’s bout of butter-fingers has hit the headlines this year. He’s had four fumbles in five games so far this season and, with a drop in the final game of last year, his current streak is five drops in six. And it’s costing his team points.

His first drop of the current campaign came in Denver’s opener against Seattle, when he tried to stretch to convert a 4th-and-1 on the 1-yard line. The turnover was converted into a TD by the Seahawks, in a game they won by a point. He then had two fumbles in a loss to the 49ers in Week 3 and his most recent misdemeanour was on Sunday against the Raiders, which Amik Robertson took 68 yards back to the house.

Gordon has actually had an issue with ball security for a while now. He had three fumbles last year, and four in each of the two seasons prior to that, so that’s 15 in three-and-a-bit seasons.

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How to fix it: Don’t overthink it

Some of this is just down to bad luck. However you protect the ball, it will pop out or get punched away from time to time. The trick now is to put this latest run of the jitters behind him, and play with confidence and freedom. With Javonte Williams going down with a season-ending knee injury last week, the pressure to put it right is on but at east Gordon posted an error-free game against Indy on Monday night.

Justin Fields

The issue: Not throwing the ball

It seems that Justin Fields, the Chicago Bears QB, either doesn’t like throwing passes or his coaches don’t trust him to. OK, he’s a young player in a new offense but among QBs who have played four games, he has the fewest pass attempts (67), completions (34) and touchdown passes (2). He hasn’t thrown for a TD since Week 1 and his passing yards per game have yet to exceed 174; they even dipped as low as 70. And he’s only completed more than 50% of his passes once, leaving him with the worst completion percentage among all starting QBs in the league (50.7%).

The Bears’ 23-20 win over the Houston Texans on Sunday exemplifies his struggles perfectly. Fields completed eight of 17 passes (47.1%) for 106 yards, took five sacks and threw two interceptions. He himself said he “played like trash” afterwards.

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How to fix it: Quicker decision making

Fields could certainly extend plays while at Ohio State. He also takes his time to throw with this Bears team too but with NFL defences hunting him down, hanging on to the ball too long isn’t a good idea. It would certainly help if he had a better supporting cast than just Darnell Mooney. Until that changes, or Fields finds a way to get the ball out quicker, Chicago will continue to lean on the ground game in general, and Khalil Herbert in particular. Let’s see if anything changes in their divisional match at Minnesota in Week 5.

Joe Mixon

The issue: Rushing inefficiency

Last year, even behind a “sub-optimal” O-line, the Cincinnati RB rushed for 13 touchdowns and racked up 1,205 yards (4.1 average), the third-highest across the NFL. This year, with a revamped line, the offense as a whole has started slowly but is beginning to pick up. But something’s still not right with the running game.

Mixon is just not finding the lanes. So far this year, he’s had 82 rushing attempts – second only to Saquon Barkley’s 84 – so his 224 yards (21st in the league) is purely down to volume. According to The Athletic’s Paul Dehner Jr., his average of 2.7 yards per carry places him dead last out of 35 eligible RBs with a mininum of 35 carries, almost half a yard behind the second worst (Austin Ekeler, 3.1). He’s also 35th out of 35 in a host of other metrics including rush success percentage, yards after contact per attempt, PFF run grade and rushing expected points added. However you measure it, it isn’t great.

Sure, the run blocking hasn’t been great yet but Mixon isn’t making the most of what is available to him either. He’s not running downhill, but instead tries to skirt around the edges. He’s always stutter-stepping and cutting rather than just getting his head down and powering forward. And he gets hit behind the line of scrimmage with alarming regularity. Many fans have noticed “tells” in his pre-snap stance as to whether he’s going to be handed the ball or not, and it sounds like opposition defenses know them too.

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How to fix it: O-line cohesion

Mixon, 26, isn’t running out of tread quite yet, and he’s had peaks and troughs in rushing efficiency throughout his pro career. I think his current struggles are more about operating behind an O-line with four new players who are taking time to gel. Once they do, they should create the channels for #28 to exploit, but let’s face it, we’re into Week 5… so it’s high time. To expedite this process, Mixon called a meeting with his blockers this week, to work on their chemistry and find ways to get back to last season’s form. I’m just not holding my breath this week: the Bengals will probably lean on their aerial attack on Sunday night at the Baltimore Ravens, who have the worst passing defense in the league (giving up 315 passing yards a game).

Chase Claypool

The issue: The scheme

Pittsburgh’s Chase Claypool is a 6’4” vertical threat but through four games, he’s had just 11 receptions for 79 yards. His 7.2 yards per catch is the equal-lowest of all WRs playing four games (tied with Tampa Bay’s Russell Gage), and that figure wasn’t helped by a Week 4 performance in which he had no targets at all. Pretty poor all round.

To be fair to Claypool (and maybe a bit harsh on his QB), Mitch Trubisky has been the signal caller for three-and-a-half of those games. But Claypool isn’t the sort who does his damage near the line of scrimmage, the environment where Trubisky likes to operate. The guy is more of a downfield threat.

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How to fix it: Let Pickett loose

I suspect Claypool’s numbers will start to improve now that Kenny Pickett is under center. From what we saw of the rookie QB during preseason and in half a game last week, we should start to see less dink-and-dunk football, and a bit more explosive, down-the-field offense from the Steelers. Pickett has toughness and timing, and it feels like he could have the necessary leadership qualities to rally his troops, so having the newbie slinging the rock should play (literally) right into Claypool’s hands. They may be playing catch-up for much of the time against the Bills this weekend so let’s see if Chase is on the case.

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Bengals finally sell stadium naming rights

It’s the end of an era in Cincinnati as the Bengals become the 30th NFL team with a stadium carrying the name of a corporate sponsor. Just Lambeau Field and Soldier Field remain as outliers… 

A partnership for the future

The list of NFL stadia for the coming 2022 season was updated twice in the last week. The Pittsburgh Steelers found a new corporate sponsor, with Heinz Field morphing into Acrisure Stadium after a $10 million per year deal was struck with the Michigan-based insurance company. But arguably more newsworthy was the decision by their AFC North rivals, the Cincinnati Bengals, to finally sell the naming rights to Paul Brown Stadium, which has honoured the franchise’s legendary founder since it opened in 2000.

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The rights have gone to Paycor, a payroll and human resources software provider. Paycor has been headquartered in the city for more than 30 years and the 16-year arrangement is an extension of an existing business relationship.

Even though the Bengals’ owner and president, 86-year-old Mike Brown, is Paul Brown’s son, the switch to Paycor Stadium wasn’t a total bolt out of the blue. He told reporters last month that selling the naming rights was necessary for his team to be able to compete.

“This is a move that I think my father would have agreed to. He was always for what’s best for the football team. This partnership allows the Bengals to continue to compete at the highest level in the NFL and exemplifies our long-term commitment to the community.”
Mike Brown, President, Cincinnati Bengals

Paul Brown died three decades ago, when the Bengals were still playing at their former home (Riverfront Stadium), so he never saw the arena that would bear his name. I guess we have to believe Mike Brown’s assertion that his father wouldn’t mind being usurped by a HR software business.

It’s all about the money, money, money

Despite their unexpected run to Super Bowl LVI, the Bengals generated “just” $458 million in revenue in 2021 – a league low. The franchise is apparently worth $2.8 billion, which is also the lowest in the NFL. Plus Mike Brown doesn’t have any outside business interests and therefore hasn’t got the same financial clout as his peers. 

While the terms of the Paycor/Bengals deal haven’t been disclosed, according to The Cincinnati Enquirer, Cincy will receive the first $60.5 million and then 70% of the remaining revenue, with Hamilton County receiving the other 30%. Whatever the absolute value of the deal, it won’t be anywhere near the $31.2 million per year being paid by fintech company SoFi for the rights to the Rams’ and Chargers’ stadium in Los Angeles for the next 20 years, or the $25 million a year that Allegiant Airlines is forking out in Las Vegas. But, as they say, every little helps.

“We’re a small-market team, we need the revenue streams that we can obtain. The fact that about 30 teams have naming rights and a revenue stream from that, and they have more revenue than we do to begin with. We have to do some things just to keep up.”
Mike Brown, President, Cincinnati Bengals

Why now for Cincinnati?

The move comes as the Bengals are looking to capitalise on one of the best seasons in their history. The team reached the Super Bowl for the first time 31 years and the front office clearly wants to keep this young, exciting and improving team together for years to come.

As part of a general drive by the franchise to generate much-needed income, this deal could help to fund contract extensions coming down the track for the likes of Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase (hence some initial social media fun about “PayJoe Stadium”). It might also contribute to the financing of a new indoor practice facility and some recently revealed renovation plans.

Similarly, Paycor has been increasing its profile since the company went public. Cincy’s Super Bowl run was perfect timing and the team’s on-field success was clearly attractive to the HR company.

“NFL stadium naming rights are a scarce asset. There are only 30 stadiums with naming rights in the U.S. and Paycor is now one of those 30. That was a unique opportunity, coupled with being a hometown team and a team on the rise, that we felt we had to take advantage of.”
Raul Villar Jr., CEO, Paycor

Sports Business Journal

And then there were two…

There are now just two NFL stadia remaining without naming rights deals with a corporate sponsor: Green Bay’s Lambeau Field and Chicago’s Soldier Field. So is either franchise likely to follow the Bengals and sell the name of their stadium?

The short answer is no.

The Packers are actually owned by local residents through a community-based model that is unique in the NFL. Back in 2015, team president Mark Murphy told shareholders that the naming rights to Lambeau Field (much like Paul Brown Stadium, named after the team’s founder and long-time coach Curly Lambeau) would never be sold.

“We will not sell the naming rights to the stadium. We will never do that. It will always be Lambeau Field.”
Mark Murphy, President, Green Bay Packers

Well, that seems fairly unequivocal.

As for the Bears, Soldier Field is more likely to change name at some point, but it’s far from a given. The league’s oldest home field is likely to undergo some major renovations in the near future, with proposals to make it a domed stadium for year-round use on the table. But those plans come with a hefty price tag of up to $2.2 billion, which increases the appeal of securing new revenue via sponsorship and naming rights agreements.

Even if the Soldier Field name is retained and a corporate sponsor added (along the lines of the Denver Broncos’ Empower Field at Mile High Stadium), there would be resistance. That’s because it was named in honour of those who fought and died during World War I and is considered by many to be a war memorial as well as a sporting arena.

“The people of Chicago don’t want their war memorial attached to a corporate name for money. It’s just not right. We’re Chicago and we’re Soldier Field, we’re not Jacksonville. There’s no tasteful way of attaching a corporate name to a war memorial. It’s a desecration.”
Pat Quinn, former Illinois Governor

So, there you have it. The Bengals have finally joined the fold and we now have 28 NFL arenas (SoFi Stadium and MetLife Stadium are shared) bearing the names of banks and financial institutions, car manufacturers, logistics businesses, energy companies, telecoms providers, even Hard Rock Café, all in pursuit of the almighty dollar. And given the unique situations in Green Bay and Chicago, I suspect that’s how it will stay for the foreseeable future. 

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Rookie Roundup: Minicamp and OTA’s

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It seems like an age has passed since the end of minicamp, but the light at the end of the tunnel is finally in sight. July 18th sees the rookies from the Buffalo Bills and the Las Vegas Raiders as the first players to report for preseason training camp, with all players, both rookies and veterans, reporting by July 26th.All rookies will need to maximise the opportunities they are given this preseason, with rosters needing to be trimmed from 90 players at the beginning of camp down to the final 53 on the 30th of August.

As always, there will be a selection of rookies that had starting jobs from the moment their names were announced on draft day. However, there will be a few on the cusp of a starting role or trying to work their way onto the first team depth chart.

Let’s look at six rookies who, after their showings at OTA’s and minicamps in May and June, may have already started to force their way into contention.

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Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers (Round 2, Pick 2)

Wide receivers are frequently overlooked by the Green Bay Packers in the first two rounds. In fact, Watson was the first they have taken since Devante Adams, the man he could potentially have been drafted to replace. He hasn’t shown any signs of the pressure getting to him, however, as he quickly built a connection with the current MVP, Aaron Rogers, by catching a deep ball during their first practise together, before continuing his trial by fire by lining up opposite Pro Bowler Jaire Alexander. It’s a promising start that, should it continue during training camp and preseason, could result in a starting position.

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Boye Mafe, EDGE, Seattle Seahawks (Round 2, Pick 8)

Mafe looks like he will be continuing the upward trajectory his career has taken so far. After starting at Minnesota with limited opportunities, he ended his collegiate tenure with an outstanding performance in the Senior Bowl in which he had three tackles for loss and a pair of sacks, one of which included forcing a fumble. Mafe has picked up where he left off and is already starting to catch the eyes of the Seahawks coaching staff, including Coach Carroll, who said, “He’s really talented. He’s the closest looking fit to Cliff Avril that we’ve seen. ” High praise indeed, being compared to the ex-Superbowl champion and Pro Bowler, and all this before he has put on the pads yet.

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George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (Round 2, Pick 20)

With Pickens only being able to play 4 games in his final season at college due to an ACL injury and given that multiple teams were apparently turned off by stories questioning his maturity and lack of discipline prior to the draft, it wouldn’t have surprised anyone if Pickens entered OTAs with a chip on his shoulder. Instead, he put his head down and got to work, making sure he could line up wherever the Steelers wanted him, something he did constantly during his tenure with the Bulldogs. It didn’t take long for him to show the Steelers coaching staff what he could do, making a spectacular bobbled catch on a pass that would have likely been too high for most receivers.

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Nakobe Dean, LB, Philadelphia Eagles (Round 3, Pick 19)

In what could end up being the steal of the draft, the Eagles were able to pick up the free-falling Dean after concerns regarding injuries and his perceived undersized body. Dean has immediately shown off both his versatility and football IQ by learning both the MIKE and WILL positions to ensure that he can contribute straight away. There has even been chatter amongst the local reporters that the rookie will end up wearing the green dot on his helmet, taking up the responsibility of communicating with the coaches and replaying the plays, which would also suggest he will be spending a lot of time on the field.

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Daniel Bellinger, TE, New York Giants (Round 4, Pick 7)

It is very rare to see a midround pick spend extended time with the starters, but that is exactly what has happened to Bellinger, and by all accounts, he has grasped his opportunity with both hands (pun intended). After being used as more of an extra offensive lineman at San Diego State and with the Giants’ signing veterans Seals-Jones and Akins in the offseason, it appeared that Bellinger would have to battle just to get a depth spot. However, he immediately impressed tight end coach Andy Bischoff. “He’s one of those rare guys today that can really do it all. He can block, he can protect, and what we want him to do is get open against man coverage. He can do all those things.”

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Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens (Round 4, Pick 34)

Standing out amongst a class of 11 rookies was always going to be a tall task, but that is exactly what the fourth-round tight end has done. Likely was the second tight end the Ravens drafted on day three and was taken only 11 picks after Charlie Kolar, but he seems to have separated himself from the pack by displaying his large catch radius and ability to get open. In the last minicamp session, Likely caught multiple touchdowns in red zone drills, but one, an incredible one-handed touchdown, caught the eye of Lamar Jackson, who remarked, “It was a tremendous catch, so the sky’s the limit.”