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2024 NFL Draft: Official Two-Round Mock Draft

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It’s draft day!

To celebrate, it’s time to release my two-round mock draft. So without much further ado, let’s get into the picks.

  1. Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams, QB, USC
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The obvious, home run pick at the top of the draft, everyone knows it’s going to happen, let’s move on!

  1. Washington Commanders – Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
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Many people (including myself) have Drake Maye as QB2 in this draft class, Jayden Daniels seems like the better fit for the system the Washington Commanders will run under offensive coordinator, Kilff Kingsbury. The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner is a good deep passer and a dynamic runner who will be able to extend plays and work better out of the structure of the offence than Maye would, in the immediate term. With Marcus Mariota also on the roster it makes sense to learn off of a veteran with a similar skillset before starting games later in the year as well.

  1. Minnesota Vikings (Via NE) – Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina 
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Trade: NE receives – No. 11, 23 and 2025 1st round pick, MIN receives – no. 3

The first projected trade of this mock draft sees Minnesota package their two first-rounders (received pick 23 in a trade with the Houston Texans), and a 2025 first-round pick to move up and select Drake Maye. Minnesota is a perfect match with Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings team and he doesn’t have to play at all in the first year, being able to sit behind veteran Sam Darnold, who was signed in free agency. As for the Patriots, they have so many needs and won’t be competitive in the AFC East for a while, so the quarterback problem can perhaps be pushed back another year or two knowing you’ll probably be back here again picking high in the draft. 

  1. Arizona Cardinals – Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
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Arizona has been my favourite trade partner since Minnesota made the trade for pick 23 and by proxy preparing to trade into the top four. Since reading Adam Schefter’s piece earlier in the week, I’ve been more inclined to think the Patriots will be that trade partner, so in this scenario, the Cardinals get Kyler Murray a true X-receiver, who has the most all-round polished game in this wide receiver class. 

  1. LA Chargers – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
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Malik Nabers is a dynamic playmaker who can make things happen after the catch. All signs point to the Chargers’ offence being run-heavy under Jim Harbaugh, Justin Herbert will need a dynamic yards-after-catch receiver that will operate well on play action, Nabers is that guy.  

  1. New York Giants – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington 
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Some people prefer Rome Odunze to Nabers due to his size and play style matching up better to that of a true NFL-calibre X-receiver. Odunze is a physical receiver who will be competitive at the catch-point, and the Giants are desperately calling out for receiver help. 

  1. Tennessee Titans – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
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Tennessee have a huge need at offensive tackle and Joe Alt possesses all the traits to be able to play as an NFL starter on day one in Nashville. Alt is the best tackle in the draft class and the Titans have a huge need at either end of their offensive line, it’s a match made in heaven. 

  1. New York Jets (Via ATL)  – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
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Trade: ATL receives – No. 10 + 5th round pick, NYJ receives – No. 8

The Falcons are the biggest early players for the first defensive player off the board, and the Jets seem desperate for an offensive playmaker. I like a tackle to the Jets as well looking long term but Brock Bowers is a special tight end talent and the Jets just give Aaron Rodgers another pass catcher. 

  1. Las Vegas Raiders (Via CHI) – J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan 
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Trade: CHI receives – No. 13 + 3rd round pick, LV receives No. 9

In previous mock drafts that I’ve done I didn’t have McCarthy dropping out of the top five, and if the Patriots go quarterback at third overall then I very much doubt he’ll get past five with the Vikings trading up, but in this scenario, he slides a long way and the Raiders snatch their guy with a little trade up. As for the Bears, with only four picks in the draft overall this has to be a trade-down spot. 

  1. Atlanta Falcons (via NYJ)- Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
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10 picks in and we finally see a defensive player go off the board in Alabama’s cornerback Terrion Arnold. Conversations about whether Quinyon Mitchell or Arnold is the best cornerback in this draft are fair but in this scenario, the Falcons go with the Alabama corner over the Toldeo one. 

  1. New England Patriots (via MIN) – J.C. Latham, OT, Alabama 
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Daniel Jeremiah had Latham as the first tackle off the board at fifth overall in his final mock draft, which says all you need to know about how highly people rate Latham in this class. The Patriots need a long-term answer at tackle and Latham can comfortably be that answer.

  1. New Orleans Saints (Via DEN) – Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
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Trade: DEN receives – No. 14 + fifth-round pick, NO receives No. 12

The Saints need a tackle with Ryan Ramcyzk suffering from a knee injury, late in his career and Trevor Penning not panning out how they’d have hoped. Olu Fashanu is a really talented tackle who is rough around the edges, with the right coaching he can be an NFL starter on the left side of this offensive line for years to come.

  1. Chicago Bears (via LV)- Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama
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Dallas Turner is the best defensive player in this class and the Bears would surely sprint this card to the podium if the board fell this way, especially after trading back. The Montez Sweat trade last season gave the Bears some presence in the front seven but Turner gives them a truly talented edge rusher who can disrupt opposing offences from day one.

  1. Philadelphia Eagles (Via DEN) – Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
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Trade: DEN receives No. 22, No. 53, PHI receives No. 14

The Eagles really need a cornerback and Howie Roseman has been rumoured to be looking to move up, while Denver needs early day two picks and their major need will be available later in the first round. Mitchell’s Senior Bowl put him on the map out of Toledo and he could bring some seriously dynamic youthfulness to this Eagles secondary. 

  1. Indianapolis Colts – Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
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Wiggins is, for me, the best cornerback after Arnold and Mitchell at “1a/1b”, and he fits a need for the Colts who look light at quality in their secondary. They may look at a receiver here or even a trade-back, but for me, the need is just too pressing to pass on.

  1. Seattle Seahawks – Troy Fautanu, OT/G, Washington 
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The Seahawks are another trade-down candidate for sure, but I have them keeping Troy Fautanu in state here. Fautanu is a great athlete and I can see them playing him as a guard this year to replace Damien Lewis who left in free agency.

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jared Verse, Edge, FSU
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Verse may not fall this far, but edge isn’t a priority need for many of the teams ahead of the Jaguars at 17. They may go cornerback in Duval County, and might even have to trade up to make that happen, but a good edge rusher would also be of great usage to the Jaguars across from Josh Allen who recently got paid.

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers (Via CIN) – Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
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Trade: CIN receives – No. 20 + sixth round pick, PIT receives No. 18

In previous mock drafts, I’ve done, I had Fuaga going at 10th overall to the Jets with an eye to their long-term need at the position and his incredible talent in the run game. It’s that talent in the run game that I think will get the attention of the Steelers’ front office and they trade ahead of the Rams and swap with the Bengals who both look like tackle-needy teams.  

  1. LA Rams – Byron Murphy, DT, Texas 
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Kobie Turner proved to be another mid-round steal from the Rams in last year’s draft and he needs help on the defensive line after Aaron Donald’s retirement. Byron Murphy can be a game-wrecker on the interior defensive line on passing and rushing downs. 

  1. Cincinatti Bengals (via PIT) – Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia 
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The Bengals will be annoyed that Bowers didn’t fall to a range they could trade up into and then as it is they settle for a trade down here. It could be a risk with the Rams needing a tackle at 19 but Mims has incredible potential that is worth taking that risk on. With only eight career starts in college Mims isn’t going to be a day-one starter but he will be a pick that comes with heaps of potential.

  1. Miami Dolphins – Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA 
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Latu has incredible talent he just falls because of his medical history which is a similar case to Jaelan Phillips a few years ago. In this mock, he ends up across the line from Phillips and the Dolphins will hope taking a gamble again can pay off like it has with Phillips.

  1. Denver Broncos (via PHI) – Bo Nix, QB, Oregon 
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This is the dream scenario for the Broncos, who trade back twice and accumulate a lot of day-two pickles to bolster a bad roster while also adding a quarterback who they’ve put a lot of time and study into. The Zach Wilson trade doesn’t change the thinking here, the Broncos have to take a quarterback and let Sean Payton build a team around him.

  1. New England Patriots (via MIN) – Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
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Brian Thomas is the best of the rest in this receiver class and his freak athleticism alongside his incredible touchdown production at LSU is hard to ignore. He could definitely go earlier than this, as high as the high-teens I’d have thought but the Patriots would love to add a true outside receiver to this roster, which currently lists slot-receiver KJ Osborn as wide receiver one. 

  1. Dallas Cowboys – Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
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Dallas have a lot of holes, particularly in the medium term and wide receiver may not be the biggest need assuming they will pay star receiver CeeDee Lamb, but Adonai Mitchell could pair with Lamb to make an excellent receiver duo.

  1. Green Bay Packers – Graham Barton, G, Duke 
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Graham Barton could go a lot higher than this, but the Packers won’t be complaining if they can take him here and play him at guard from day one. The Duke man can play anywhere across the offensive line and plays with immense grit, drive and power, I have no doubt he’d fit perfectly in Green Bay.

  1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon 
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The second top interior offensive line talent, Power-Johnson will go straight into the interior of the Buccaneers’ offensive line and bolster the pass protection for Baker Mayfield. 

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (Via AZ) – Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
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Trade: AZ receives – No. 32 + sixth round pick, KC receives No. 27

The Chiefs need receiver help, everyone knows it and with a class so deep at receiver, you’ll need to be brave and aggressive to get your guy, which the Chiefs do at this spot, moving up ahead of the Bills and 49ers to get a playmaker who could be a real nuisance with his route running in Kansas City.

  1. Buffalo Bills – Keon Coleman, WR, FSU 
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Josh Allen needs a big receiver to whom he can throw jump balls to and I have no doubt, Keon Coleman can come straight into this Buffalo offence and make a difference after the Stefon Diggs trade. 

  1. Detroit Lions – Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa 
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DeJean only slides because there are certain questions about where DeJean projects at the pro level, similar, to how Brian Branch fell last year. Coincidentally, it is the Lions who take DeJean as they did with Branch, but unlike Branch being a nickel/safety, I think DeJean can be a true cornerback on the outside.

  1. Baltimore Ravens – Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma 
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The Ravens really badly need a tackle and Tyler Guyton, is a more developmental tackle but the need is so big and there aren’t any elite talents here at other positions of need for that to put the Ravens off.

  1. San Fransisco 49ers – Jordan Morgan, OT/G, Arizona
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Jordan Morgan can slide straight into the interior of the 49ers’ offensive line, while he learns the trade of tackle behind a 38-year-old Trent Williams where he may be projected more, long-term. 

  1. Arizona Cardinals (via KC) – Johnny Newton, IDL, Illinois 
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This is the dream for Arizona, trading back from 27 and still getting a potential game-changer on the interior defensive line, in Johnny Newton from Illinois, who would have been the pick at 27. His size profile lets him down slightly but the play performance gets him in as a first-round pick from me.

Round 2 

  1. Washington Commanders (via CAR) – Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State (Trade: CAR receives – No. 33, WAS receives – No. 36)
  2. New England Patriots – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama 
  3. Arizona Cardinals – Darius Robinson, Edge, Missouri  
  4. Carolina Panthers (via WAS) – Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas 
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Trading back and still getting a true playmaker who can change the dynamic of your offence can’t ever be a bad thing, and it definitely isn’t if you’re the Panthers getting the 40-yard dash record holder in Xavier Worthy.

  1. LA Chargers – Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan 
  2. Tennessee Titans – Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU 
  3. Carolina Panthers – Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri
  4. Washington Commanders – Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, Washington 
  5. Green Bay Packers – Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M 
  6. Houston Texans – Braden Fiske, DL, FSU 
  7. New York Giants (Via ATL) – Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
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Trade: ATL receives – 47 + sixth-round pick, NYG receives – 43

Penix has first-round pick potential after his game vs Texas at the end of last season, but the injury history and breadth of accuracy errors on tape earlier in the season all factor into this fall. Seeing him fall this far though kicks the Giants into gear and they select him with the option of getting out of Daniel Jones’ contract next year if they want to take it. 

  1. Las Vegas Raiders – Malachi Corley, WR, Western Kentucky
  2. New Orleans Saints – Chris Braswell, Edge, Alabama 
  3. Indianapolis Colts – Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida 
  4. Atlanta Falcons (via NYG) – Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina  
  5. Jacksonville Jaguars – Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon 
  6. Cincinnati Bengals – Michael Hall Jr., DL, Ohio State 
  7. Philadelphia Eagles – Zach Frazier, IOL, West Virginia 
  8. Pittsburgh Steelers – Cooper Beede, IOL, Kansas State
  9. LA Rams – Marshawn Kneeland, Edge, Western Michigan 
  10. Denver Broncos (via PHI) – Junior Colson, LB, Michigan 
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Colson has great talent and is my favourite interior linebacker in this class, he plays with aggression and a lot of athleticism, and the Broncos have a serious need at Mike linebacker, so they use their second-round pick they get from Philadelphia in the trade-up to 14 in the first round to fix that need.

  1. Cleveland Browns – Kris Jenkins, DL, Michigan 
  2. Miami Dolphins – Christian Haynes, G, UConn 
  3. Dallas Cowboys – Jonathon Brooks, RB, Texas
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – T.J. Tampa, CB, Iowa State 
  5. Green Bay Packers – Tyler Nubin, S, Minnesota 
  6. Kansas City Chiefs (Via HOU) – Blake Corum, RB, Michigan (HOU receives No. 64 + seventh-round pick, KC receives No.59)
  7. Buffalo Bills – Andru Phillips, CB, Kentucky 
  8. Detroit Lions – Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan 
  9. Baltimore Ravens – Javon Bullard, S, Georgia 
  10. San Fransisco 49ers – Ruke Orhorhoro, DL, Clemson 
  11. Houston Texans (via KC) – Trey Benson, RB, FSU
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A tribute to… the fake punt

In the grand theatre that is American football, few tactics exemplify the art of deception quite like the fake punt. The sneaky trick play dates back to the early days of the National Football League and has shaped countless games, leaving an indelible mark on the sport’s landscape. In this, the second article in our series honouring the game’s rarer plays, we delve into the strategies behind the fake punt and relive some of the great examples from days gone by.

How it all began

While the rules of the sport do not explicitly mention the option to fake a punt attempt, teams have been doing so since the formative days of the league, when coaches and players began experimenting with unconventional ways to try to gain an edge on the field. At its core, the move is designed to deceive the opposing team by lining up in punt formation but executing an alternative play, such as a run or pass, that they aren’t set up to defend.

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The first documented instance of a fake punt in the NFL occurred on 6 November 1932, by the Chicago Bears against the Green Bay Packers at Wrigley Field. Trailing by a point late in the fourth quarter, the Bears needed a big play to turn the tide in their favour and decided to fake a punt. Their legendary quarterback, Bronko Nagurski, received the snap instead of punter Johnny Sisk, faked a punt attempt himself before running with the ball. Catching the Packers off guard, Nagurski secured a pivotal first down that ultimately led to the game-winning touchdown.

The options

That landmark play, almost a century ago, demonstrated the potential impact of having bare-faced deception in the playbook and set the stage for others to follow. As the fake punt gained traction across the league, it became clear that different categories of trickery, each with its own unique approach and execution, were available. These can be loosely classified as follows:

  • The run: In this classic variation, more often used in short yardage situations, the punter receives the snap and runs with the ball. This relies on blockers to help the (usually smaller, lighter) ball-carrier evade defenders.
  • The pass: This more daring approach sees the punter make a downfield throw, targeting an uncovered receiver for a potentially big gain.
  • The direct snap: Bypassing the punter altogether, this variation involves the ball being snapped directly to a running back or quarterback (as in Nagurski’s case), who then executes a predetermined running or passing play.
  • The reverse: Adding another layer of complexity, the reverse fake punt sees the punter hand the ball off to a player executing a reverse run or pass, exploiting the defense’s pursuit of the punter.

DEEP FAKE: During the Cleveland Browns’ game against the Saints in October 2010, punter Reggie Hodges took a snap, bolted through the line of scrimmage and ran it 68 yards to the Saints’ 10-yard line. It’s still the longest run by a punter in NFL history.

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Legendary moments of fake puntory

Through the years, fake punts have etched themselves into the annals of NFL history, captivating audiences with their audacity and execution. Even in the last decade or so, there have been some memorable examples of the passing variety and many illustrate the point that punters don’t have to be particularly good at throwing if the play is enough of a surprise. 

Eight years ago, in 2016, kicker Pat McAfee threw a 35-yard pass on a fake punt for the Indianapolis Colts against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Facing a 4th-and-6 from midfield, McAfee took the snap, crept a few steps to his right and threw a pass to tight end Erik Swoope, who was eventually brought down inside the 10.   

In Week 4 of the 2017 season, the Jacksonville Jaguars literally didn’t defend the New York Jets receiver and punter Lac Edwards just about made the pass on a huge 4th-and-21. Also in 2017, during a Monday night clash with divisional rivals the Minnesota Vikings, Bears punter Pat O’Donnell completed a 38-yard TD pass to Benny Cunningham, who beat two defenders in the open field to score. By his own admission, O’Donnell had never thrown a pass before – not in college or even little league – and while his slow, lofted pass won’t win prizes for style, it still went for seven points.

A year later, the Tennessee Titans notched an impressive 66-yard TD on a fake punt against the Houston Texans. With the game just five minutes old and still scoreless, the long snap bypassed the punter in favour of safety Kevin Byard, lurking in the backfield. He noticed that the gunner on his right, rookie safety Dane Cruikshank, was unguarded and that was all he needed. Cruikshank was so open, he could afford to slow down to catch the ball before speeding past punt returner Bruce Ellington for the score in just his second game as a pro.

Only last year, Ryan Wright of the Vikings suddenly got licence to throw a ball instead of punting – with mixed success. In Week 15, the Vikings tried some sneakiness against the Colts on a fourth down but it went south. Wright lined up, looking to all intents and purposes like he was about to boot the ball away, but instead threw a pass towards Jalen Nailor on the left sideline. Alas, it was an ugly effort that sailed over his intended target’s head, leading to a turnover on downs. However, the two did connect when Minnesota played the New Orleans Saints in London earlier in the season. Leading 16-14 late in the third quarter, they faced a 4th-and-2 from just inside their own half. Wright took the snap, immediately turned to his right and threw a 13-yard pass that just about had the legs to reach Nailor for his first-ever NFL catch.

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Turning our attention to run plays, this fake punt from December 2021 went 73 yards – but it wasn’t the punter running this time. After seemingly going three-and-out on their opening possession against the San Francisco 49ers, the Seattle Seahawks snapped the ball directly to running back Travis Homer. He raced 73 yards to the end zone to give Seattle a 7-0 lead. This is the longest run on fourth down in the past 25 years, according to ESPN Stats & Information research, and Homer was actually listed as questionable because of a calf injury so extra kudos to him!

WORTH A GO: Historically, fake punt passes on 4th-and-7 or shorter have at least a conversion rate of at least 50%.

Fakes that failed

As much as it’s fun to celebrate every successful fake punt, it’s counterbalanced by many a cautionary tale of failure and miscalculation. There are far too many to recount of failed fakes but here are just a couple.

In the 2020 season, the NFC East (nicknamed the ‘NFC Least’ at the time due to the ineptitude of all four teams) was won, almost by default, by a Washington team with a 7-9 record. Summing up the division that year, the 6-10 Cowboys managed this epic fail on a reverse against the then-Redskins, barely making it back to the line of scrimmage, deep in their own territory. Mike McCarthy, hang your head in shame for calling this one.

And only this season, we saw the Buffalo Bills tried to pull a fast one on their AFC rivals, the Kansas City Chiefs, but again failed to convert. Down 27-24 early in the fourth quarter, Bills HC Sean McDermott decided to get aggressive on a 4th-and-5 on their own 30 yard-line, obviously hoping that the field position would suggest conservatism rather than recklessness to his opposite number, Andy Reid. Damar Hamlin took the direct snap from the long snapper, and the offensive line shifted to the left to clear a path. However, the KC defense stopped Hamlin after a gain of two.

The king of fakes: Johnny Hekker

Several names have become synonymous with the art of the fake punt. Back in 1960, when some players still had multiple roles – as both quarterback and punter, for example – the Eagles’ Norm Van Brocklin was second in passer rating and fifth in punting average as he led Philadelphia to an NFL championship. Meanwhile, Dallas’ Danny White threw for three scores and averaged 44.5 yards a punt against the Rams in a 1980 playoff game. 

But in the modern era, no one can hold a candle to Johnny Hekker. The former LA Ram punter was named first-team All-Pro four times and holds the single-season record for net punting average. In 2016, he had the greatest punting season in NFL history, landing 51 punts inside the opposing 20-yard line with just one touchback. But as good as he is at punting, he’s in a league of his own at ‘not punting’.

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Most teams run fake punts once in a blue moon. In 2019, the Ringer stated that combined, the 31 teams other than the Rams attempt about five fake-punt passes a season and convert three. Hekker alone has averaged 2.4 passes per season since 2012, has yet to go a year without at least attempting a pass and has only had one season (2013) without a completion.

In Hekker’s rookie season (2012), all three of his throws went to wide-open players. His first came from inside his own end zone, when the Niners clearly weren’t expecting a pass and failed to defend a Rams’ gunner. His second came in the same game, on what might have been the first run-pass option called for a punter and his third came on a fake field goal attempt (more on them later), during which the Rams pretended to sub wide receiver Danny Amendola out of the game. Instead, he hugged the sideline without a defender anywhere near him, leaving Hekker with a throw that, well, any punter could have made.

“Deep down inside, all punters want to throw,” Rams special teams coach John Fassel said of Hekker, “and he’d much rather throw than punt.” Hekker himself admits, “I’ve got a good release… for a punter.” And the secret to his success? Hekker led his high school team to the Washingston state championship game as a QB.

Hekker has now played 10 NFL seasons – nine with the St Louis/Los Angeles Rams and one with the Carolina Panthers, and is now 15-of-24 (62.5%) for 193 yards – with a long of 28 – with 1 TD and 1 INT as a passer. (He also completed a pass on a two-point conversion but that doesn’t count towards his official statistics.) The guy is undoubtedly the league’s fakiest punter.

Dan, Dan, the diaper man

Switching from the field to the sidelines, current Detroit head coach Dan Campbell is definitely not afraid to call a high-risk, high-reward play. He even stated that Detroit fans should “wear a diaper” because he likes to take risks, specifically on fourth downs. Just last season, in the third quarter against the Packers in November 2023, the Lions attempted a fake punt on a 4th-and-4 from their own 23-yard line. From the moment the ball was snapped, the play never stood a chance. Linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin was stopped for no gain and the Packers scored three plays later, going on to win 29-22. To his credit, Campbell held his hands up. “Yeah, look. That’s a bad call on me,” he said postgame. “I shouldn’t have done that to those guys. That’s a bad call.” 

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But that failure was the exception. Under Campbell, the Lions have converted eight of their 10 fake punt attempts, a stunningly high success rate. Props should also go to special teams coordinator Dave Fipp, who echoes Campbell’s gung-ho style and has helped to turn the Lions’ special teams into one of the league’s best units. In 2021, the Lions converted three of four fake punt attempts, with CJ Moore running for 28 yards on a direct snap against the Rams and punter Jack Fox completing two throws. Last season, Fox completed another pass, Moore ran for two more first downs and Reeves-Maybin rumbled for 3 yards on a 4th-and-2 from his own 17-yard line. Like with Hekker, the element of surprise is long gone with Campbell’s reputation for ballsy play-calling but nonetheless, he still seems to succeed more often than not.

Don’t forget the fake field goal

Before we finish, we must talk about fake field goals. Again, there are a number of different permutations. Usually the holder (often the punter or backup quarterback) will take the snap but rather than place the ball on the ground to be kicked, he’ll throw a pass or run with it.

Less frequently, the kicker, takes a direct snap and serves as the passer or rusher. Former Patriots kicker Adam Vinatieri received a direct snap and threw a touchdown pass to Troy Brown during a game in 2004 and the Seahawks used this play in the 2014 NFC Championship game against the Packers. The box score would have revealed the weirdest touchdown pass description (holder/punter Jon Ryan to eligible offensive lineman Garry Gilliam) as Seattle recovered from a 16-point deficit on their way to Super Bowl XLIX.

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A legacy of innovation and intrigue

Reflecting on the history and evolution of fake kicks, one thing is clear: it’s not just a tactical manoeuvre. Indeed, it’s a testament to the creativity, daring and strategic brilliance of the players and coaches that have shaped the evolution of the game. The fake punt and field goal continue to illicit a knowing nod or even a hysterical squeal, given their potential for glory or disaster. But as the league continues to evolve, you can only imagine the new twists and turns that will define deception and trickery in years to come…

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A tribute to… the Hail Mary

While the rules of American football do not explicitly mention the Hail Mary pass, it remains a thrilling aspect of the game. There’s little else that evokes the same anticipation, or suggests the same desperation, as these all-or-nothing, everything-on-the-line moments. In this first in an occasional series of off-season articles about some of the game’s much-loved but rarer plays, Sean Tyler explores the history of the Hail Mary in the NFL, outlines the tactics and techniques behind it, and revisits some of the greatest Hail Marys from years gone by.

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How it all began

Because it’s not part of the game’s official lexicon, the term wasn’t coined by a coach, owner or even a commentator. In footballing terms, the expression dates back to October 1922, when players from Notre Dame (a Catholic university) twice said a prayer in the huddle before plays against Georgia Tech – and scored touchdowns in both instances.

As for the NFL, the first recorded reference came several decades later from Roger Staubach, the Dallas Cowboys quarterback. In a divisional playoff game against the Minnesota Vikings in December 1975, with just 32 seconds on the clock and Dallas trailing by four, legendary Head Coach Tom Landry called for a long pass and Staubach launched one from the halfway line. The slightly underthrown ball was tipped by receiver Drew Pearson five yards shy of the paint but he somehow trapped it between his arm and hip before taking it in for the winning score. Afterwards, Landry said “Our only hope was to throw it and hope for a miracle,” while Staubach – a devout Catholic – told reporters, “I just closed my eyes and said a Hail Mary.” The term appeared in several newspaper headlines the following day and has been part of NFL folklore ever since.

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Mindset and mechanics

The prayer in question (“Hail Mary, full of grace, the Lord is with thee…”) eludes to summoning help from the powers that be to successfully make a long, low-probability, chuck-it-and-hope throw. Usually attempted when a team is too far from the end zone to try something more conventional, the term implies that it would take a miracle for the play to succeed – which is why we love it when it does. That success relies on several factors coming together in the perfect storm: the strength and technique of the quarterback, whether there’s enough time for the receiver(s) to get downfield, whether the opposing team can defend it and, in most cases, a massive slice of good fortune.

So how do you shift the odds in your favour? Well, according to Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, you practice. During his three years as an understudy to Brett Favre, he performed countless reps. “I got used to what it felt like, height and distance wise,” he told ESPN in a great article in 2019. “I’ve always been a little nerdy about that – watching the ball, seeing where it would land, remembering what that throw felt like. Was it all out? Was it 90 percent? Was it 80 percent? And just kind of locking those things away.”

As for Vikings QB Kirk Cousins, who has both a college and an NFL Hail Mary to his name, time is also crucial. “Can you find time in the pocket or can you escape the pocket and step up? By the time you run around a little bit, the receiver is in the end zone where you want them. It helps if you can buy as much time as possible, let the receivers get underneath the ball as it comes down.” And the numbers bear that out. According to ESPN tracking, the average time before a Hail Mary is thrown is 4.75 seconds – almost twice as long as a normal play.

So what about trajectory? The throw must go high and far enough to reach the end zone but not go out of the back – that’s quite a tight window if you’re 50 yards or more away. Quarterbacks tend to pull their arms farther back than normal and Cousins tilts his shoulders, with the front shoulder up and back shoulder down. “That will put the arc on it,” he confirms. “You want the ball coming down at the receivers. You don’t want a driven ball.”

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A RARE TREAT: Due to the degree of difficulty, most attempts aren’t completed. In fact, there have only been 34 successful Hail Marys in the professional game since Staubach’s effort nearly 50 years ago.

All hail King Rodgers

While the Hail Mary is often seen as a last-ditch effort, some players have developed a reputation for launching long, accurate passes in clutch moments. Since Staubach, there have been several successful proponents of the Hail Mary. And where better to start than with the best of the best, Aaron Rodgers, who (thanks to all that practice) is the only quarterback with three successful NFL Hail Marys to his name.

One of the most famous of all time, christened the ‘Miracle in Motown’ by broadcaster Jim Nantz, came on the final play of a Thursday night game in December 2015 against the Packers’ NFC North rivals, the Detroit Lions. Because of a face mask penalty on the previous play, Green Bay – who’d been trailing most of the game – were given an extra play with no time on the clock. After the snap, Rodgers broke left to buy time while his receivers rushed downfield. Then he scrambled to the right to evade pressure and hurled a howitzer from his own 35-yard line. It dropped inside the end zone, where it was caught by the 6’4” Richard Rodgers II in front of a gaggle of Detroit players. (The tight end also caught a 67-yarder from Carson Wentz as a Philadelphia Eagle in 2020.)

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The Rodgers-to-Rodgers connection, which brought a dramatic 27-23 victory, is still the longest Hail Mary touchdown in NFL history. According to estimations at the time, the ball travelled 69 yards and almost hit the rafters at Ford Field. Breaking it down afterwards, then-HC Mike McCarthy said: “When you throw it with that arc, it gives guys a chance to fight for position. And Richard is the perfect guy for that type of situation, with his ability to go up and high-point the football.”

Having won the NFL Play of the Year Award for the 2015 season for that one, Rodgers threw another just weeks later. This time, Green Bay were facing the Arizona Cardinals in the 2015 NFC Divisional Playoff game. Down by seven and with seconds remaining, Rodgers heaved another desperation pass into the end zone while Marcus Golden and others rushed to close him down. This time, the ball was caught by receiver Jeff Janis and the 41-yard reception sent the game into overtime (although the Cardinals ultimately prevailed).

Rodgers, the unofficial yet undisputed ‘King of the Hail Mary’, then uncorked a third the following year – again in the postseason. In the NFC Wild Card Game against the New York Giants, he let it fly from the 53-yard-line with the last play of the first half and Randall Cobb took the catch at the back of the end zone. Rodgers’ three career Hail Marys, which came during a span of just 13 months, travelled a combined 172 yards.

Talking on Pat McAfee’s show years later, Rodgers raised another interesting factor: the inability of defensive players to read the flight of the ball. “I think it just comes down to the way you throw it,” he said. “If you take out the Jeff Janis one, the other two I was trying to get to a clean spot and throw it as high as possible. On both of those, I think there was a misjudgement by a majority of the players as to where the ball was going to come down.”

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A LONG SHOT… IN EVERY SENSE OF THE WORD: According to ESPN Stats and Information, only 9.7% of the 193 attempts from 2009 to 2019 were completed.

Double trouble: Dalton and Couch

Looking back through the annals of NFL history, there have been several other notable exponents of the Hail Mary. In particular, a couple of QBs from the AFC North have managed the feat twice (as has Russell Wilson, and we’ll come to him shortly).

In a 2013 battle with the Cincinnati Bengals, the Baltimore Ravens were leading 17-10 when, on the last play, Cincy’s Andy Dalton launched a 51-yard lob to the end zone on a 4th-and-15. The ball was deflected twice, once by each team, and while everyone else fell to the deck, the ball fell to AJ Green for a touchdown that forced overtime. The same pair teamed up three years later against the Browns, when the Red Rifle found Green with a 52-yard moonshot with seconds left in the first half. Again, there was some juggling and bobbling before Green pulled it into his chest for a 31-17 Bengals win.

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Staying in the division, in October 1999, the Cleveland Browns secured their first win as a returning expansion team with a Hail Mary against the New Orleans Saints. Quarterback Tim Couch avoided the pass rush and launched a 56-yard bomb that was tipped, then caught, by receiver Kevin Johnson. Three years later, Couch repeated the feat against the Jacksonville Jaguars, when his 50-yarder to a tightly covered Quincy Morgan (and the ensuing extra point) secured a 21-20 win. Couch remains the only player to win two NFL games on game-ending Hail Marys.

Before we move on from the Browns, we ought to mention another so-called ‘miracle’: The Miracle at the Met. This refers to Cleveland’s epic game at the Vikings’ old Metropolitan Stadium in December 1980, in which Minnesota came back from a 23-9 deficit to snatch victory in the last five minutes. The Vikes closed to within a point and, after forcing the Browns to punt, were left with 14 seconds, with the ball at their own 20. A crafty lateral pass (more of them another time) set up a 39-yard gain, leaving 41 yards still to go and just five seconds on the clock. NBC broadcaster Len Dawson predicted, “They’re gonna throw that ball up in the air and hope for a miracle” … and he wasn’t wrong. Three receivers lined up on the right and all ran go routes to the end zone, while Tommy Kramer (456 yards, 4 TDs) dropped back and heaved the ball into the crowd scene. A Browns defender tipped the ball but Ahmad Rashad caught it, with one hand, on the 1-yard line and took it in backwards for the score that sealed the NFC Central division title for Minnesota.

When Hail Marys become Fail Marys…

The original ‘Fail Mary’, as it became known, is a misnomer; it was actually a successful play. It occurred in 2012, during a contractual dispute with referees and umpires, when a replacement crew dominated the headlines in the Packers’ Monday night clash with the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson threw a last-second attempt on a 4th-and-10 to Golden Tate, who was surrounded by three defenders in the end zone. Tate pushed one of them away without drawing a flag (hold that thought) but both he and MD Jennings gripped the ball with both hands as they fell to the ground. One referee signalled for a touchdown while another called it an INT. A replay confirmed the score, which resulted in a controversial 14-12 Seattle victory.

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That play is one of several that confirm the benefits of defensive players knocking the ball away – preferably down – rather that trying to intercept it but even that can go wrong. On the final play of a 2010 game in Jacksonville, Texans safety Glover Quin tried to knock down a David Garrard pass intended for Mike Sims-Walker with a double-handed, volleyball-style swat. Alas, it went straight into the hands of Jags receiver Mike Thomas, who brought the ball under control and stepped into the end zone for the winning score.

The Tate TD also highlights the fact that players on both sides are essentially immune from pass-interference flags on a Hail Mary, largely because the NFL doesn’t want a game to be decided on a penalty. Most attempts turn into rugby scrums and no one seems to bat an eyelid. The other dilemma facing defensive coaches is whether to take your chances at the line of scrimmage and send in the pass rush or pull more bodies back to defend the ball down the field. That’s a case of pick your own poison and there’s no right answer.

HOT AND COLD STREAKS: There have been three seasons (2012, 2015 and 2016) with three successful Hail Marys each, while only one was completed between 2003 and 2009.

… and Oh Hell Marys

Because it’s such a high-risk, high-reward play, a Hail Mary can go spectacularly awry and I don’t mean the ‘it didn’t quite work’ kind of wrong; I mean ‘handing the other team seven points’ wrong. Indeed, that happened just three months ago, in Week 12 of the 2023 season, in what might be one of the most ‘Jets’ plays ever.

Trailing 10-6 with the first half all but over, New York Jets QB Tim Boyle unleashed a ball 57 yards through the air. Alas, it went straight to Miami Dolphins safety Jevon Holland on the 1-yard line, and he ran it back for the first Hail Mary returned for a touchdown since ESPN began tracking them in 2006. Starting from the back-left of the field, he ended up at the opposite corner, having run for 124 yards. Picking up critical blocks from Christian Wilkins, Bradley Chubb and Jerome Baker along the way, he left the Jets players sprawling in his wake as he completed his incredible 99-yard pick six.

Despite going on to lose 34-13, Jets running back Breece Hall had no beef with the decision to try a Hail Mary. “It makes perfect sense to me,” he said. “You get the ball at the 50, you throw it at the end zone. When you stop thinking like that, that’s when you’re passive, and I don’t want to be a part of a passive offense. I’m happy we went for it.”

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THE LATEST (SUCCESSFUL) HAIL MARY: In Week 2 of the 2023 season, the Washington Commanders fought back from 21-3 down to lead the Denver Broncos 35–27. With three seconds remaining, Russell Wilson heaved a pass from midfield that was deflected twice before Brandon Johnson caught the TD, giving the QB his second career Hail Mary completion. Alas, Denver failed to convert the ensuing two-point conversion so it was all in vain.

A personal favourite: the Hail Murray

With 35 Hail Marys in the NFL record books, it’s impossible to summarise them all here. But before we finish, let’s revisit one more corker that wasn’t scripted. It was a play that unravelled and the quarterback in question just had to wing it.

The so-called ‘Hail Murray’ occurred when the Cardinals hosted the Buffalo Bills in November 2020. Down 30-26 with 11 seconds remaining and with no timeouts left, the intended target Andy Isabella – running a crossing route – couldn’t get open on a 1st-and-10. The diminutive Kyler Murray evaded a would-be sack from Mario Addison but with two Bills lineman barrelling towards him, it was clear that the play was breaking down, there was nowhere for him to scramble to and time was ebbing away. He was left with no other choice but to hurl it 43 yards downfield and hope for the best. Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, the only Arizona player to reach the end zone, somehow climbed the ladder and caught the ball, his hands rising through those of Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White and Micah Hyde to seal a stunning 32-30 comeback victory.

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Here’s just a taste of how that amazing moment, which won the NFL Play of the Year Award, was described by the radio announcers who cover the Cardinals on KVMP FM. (The fact that it’s nearly all in capitals tells you everything…)

Dave Pasch: “Murray back to throw, flushed out, rolling left in trouble, slips a tackle, gotta launch it, he does, left side, into the end zone, jump ball, and it is… is it caught?! Is it caught?! OH MY GOODNESS, IT’S CAUGHT! DEANDRE HOPKINS CAUGHT IT! HE CAUGHT IT FOR A TOUCHDOWN! WITH ONE SECOND LEFT! I CAN’T BELIEVE IT! YOU’VE GOTTA BE JOKING ME! HOPKINS… REACHES UP WITH THREE DEFENDERS AROUND HIM AND PULLS IT IN! THE CARDINALS LEAD 32-30 WITH A SECOND LEFT!”

Ron Wolfley: “YOU! CAN’T! COVER! ‘NUK! YOU’RE NOT GONNA BE ABLE TO COVER HIM! THROW THE BALL UP! THAT’S WHAT KYLER MURRAY DID! HE EXTENDED THE PLAY WITH HIS LEGS! AND JUST CHUCKED THAT THING UP INTO THE AIR! INTO THE DESERT SKY, BABY! AND D-HOP BROUGHT IT DOWN! TOUCHDOWN!”

Wow. Goosebumps.

Long live the long throw

Since Staubach’s post-game comment half a century ago, the Hail Mary has (somewhat fittingly) come a long way. It is now less of a desperate call for divine intervention and more often a deliberate, strategic play that a cannon-armed quarterback can pull out of the bag when needed. It embodies everything we love about football: skill and strength for sure, but also unpredictability, hope and a little bit of luck.

So, please join me in raising a glass to the Hail Mary: a rare beast, but far from endangered. Rather, it has become an integral part of the NFL’s rich tapestry and, as these examples hopefully illustrate, brought us some of the most dramatic and celebrated moments in league history. That’s why I’m certain that, as long as there are a few seconds on the clock, half a field still to gain and a result hanging in the balance, the Hail Mary will continue to captivate NFL fans.

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PICK SIX – Divisional Round

With only four games over the weekend, we’ve had to dive a little deeper this time, looking at individual players and even individual plays. With Shaun Blundell in the dog house (don’t worry, he’s just settling in a new pet pooch), Sean Tyler takes the reins and selects six aspects of the NFL’s Division Round to unpick.

Another Lamar-vellous performance

If you have Lamar Jackson on your team, you always have a chance, and if you have him playing at his best, then frankly, you have an unfair advantage. And so it proved on Saturday evening, when the No.1 seed Baltimore Ravens came off a week’s rest to put the spirited Houston Texans to the sword. Defying his 1-3 playoff record, Lamar went into full action hero mode in the Ravens’ 34-10 Divisional Round victory, throwing 16 of 22 for 152 yards and rushing 11 times for 100 more in a four-touchdown, zero-turnover performance.

Baltimore walked away with the spoils quite comfortably in the end but having gone into the break tied at 10-apiece, it wasn’t obvious that the dam was about to break. In fact, Lamar was blitzed time and again in the first two quarters, took three sacks – two in back-to-back plays – and ended the half with 23 net passing yards and just one TD pass to Nelson Agholor. It was an evenly matched contest up until that point, but something must have clicked into place in the locker room.

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In the second half, Jackson led four consecutive scoring drives, which ended in rushing TDs from 15 and 8 yards out – the latter saw him keep going through the back of the end zone, over the photographers and off down the tunnel – a TD pass to tight end Isaiah Likely and a 43-yard Justin Tucker field goal. Meanwhile, his defensive colleagues kept Houston at arm’s length, holding them to 213 total yards and no offensive scores.

Jackson is the first player in NFL history with two-plus passing TDs, two-plus rushing TDs, 100+ passing yards and 100+ rushing yards in a game, and must be nailed on to be the league MVP again. And on the back of his second playoff win, Baltimore progress to the AFC Championship game for the first time since 2012, when they last lifted the Lombardi. If Jackson is truly MVP-worthy, he needed to show more than a stellar regular season. There were still lingering doubts about his playoff credentials before this weekend but not any more; four TDs have a habit of silencing your critics.

Nonetheless, despite this impressive display, no one’s counting any chickens yet, least of all the man himself. “We’ve got to finish,” Jackson said after the game. “We’re still in the playoffs, not in the dance yet. I’m not even thinking of the Super Bowl until we handle business.” [ST]

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Jordan would Love a second chance

Even in the perfect game, I suspect every player is going to want one or two plays back. And in the Packers’ 24-21 loss to San Francisco on Saturday night, there are no prizes for guessing which one Jordan Love would nominate for a do-over.

After the Packers had gone behind for the final time, Love (194 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) had just over a minute left, and three timeouts at his disposal, to get his team into field goal range. He picked up an initial first down but on the next set of downs, starting from his own 36-yard line, he got flushed out of the pocket and had to roll to the right.

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Instead of throwing the ball away or attempting to scramble for a few yards – but importantly, living to fight another play – he had a rush of blood to the head and forced an off-balance, on-the-run, underthrown wing-and-a-prayer throw back across the field into a sea of red jerseys. His intended target, Christian Watson, was outnumbered 3:1 by Niners and the nearest one, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, dived in for his second INT of the game.

It wasn’t this one attempt, or even Love’s play in general, that lost them the game; there were ample chances for Green Bay to seal the deal, not least when Anders Carlson’s 41-yard FG attempt drifted wide left earlier in the game. But the errant throw did put the final nail in the Packers’ fifth straight postseason loss to the 49ers in the last 10 years. It was ironic that their season ended on a turnover, considering that Love had thrown for 2,422 yards, 21 touchdowns and just one interception since Week 10. It’ll feel pretty raw for a while but unlike seasons past, Matt LaFleur’s young team – including their impressive young quarterback – are on an upward trajectory and have a lot to look forward to. [ST]

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The Mac attack

Christian McCaffrey is pretty good at the worst of times but when he’s enjoyed a couple of weeks’ recuperation, he’s lethal. In the 49ers’ come-from-behind win against Green Bay on Saturday, the dual-threat running back ran the rock 17 times for 98 yards (averaging 5.7) and rushed for two touchdowns, and caught seven of 12 targets for another 30 in the passing game.

It should be no surprise, given that Run CMC has absolutely dominated the regular season, with more than 2,000 total yards to his name. Not only did he lead the league with 1,459 rushing yards – nearly 300 more than his nearest rival, Derrick Henry – and 14 rushing TDs but he also posted 564 yards and seven TDs (the same as teammates Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel) as a receiver. If you look up ‘workhorse’ in the dictionary, I’m pretty sure you’ll find a picture of McCaffrey there.

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His first score, with the Niners 13-7 behind midway through the third quarter, was a 39-yard scamper where he just barged his way up the middle, made a couple of cuts to the left and broke out into the open field. His other TD, from 6 yards out, saw his O-line open up a big channel for him to run right through, with only Jonathan Owens able to get anywhere near him. That was the fatal blow: five plays later, Jordan Love threw his second pick and the game was over. But as ever, it wasn’t just the touchdowns. McCaffrey was effective on screen passes and several times, he just barrelled into the heart of the Packers’ defensive line with the ball cradled tightly in both arms, pumping his legs and breaking tackles to secure the required yardage.  

McCaffrey’s winning score gave the Niners their first second-half comeback of the season and on a night when they weren’t at their best – with special teams blunders, their defense giving up big plays and Brock Purdy being off-target for much of the night – they needed to lean on him. But I guess it shows that the 49ers can come from behind if required, and they may well have to do the same again this week in the NFC Championship game. [ST]

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Dan’s the man as Lions tame Bucs  

Famously, the Detroit Lions are one of only four NFL franchises never to reach a Super Bowl and after a slow start against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, doubts crept in as to whether this year’s version could keep the dream alive. Luckily, a raucous home crowd finally woke the team up to secure a 31-23 victory and advance to a conference championship game for the first time since 1991. 

In front of their fervent fans, the Lions epitomised the grit, determination and honest endeavour of their (Honolulu) blue-collar town. The game was tied at 17-17 going into the final quarter but Dan Campbell’s team somehow dug a little deeper and found that extra gear. Jared Goff threw for 287 yards and two touchdown passes. Amon-Ra St Brown led the team with 77 receiving yards and scored the game-sealing TD. Sam LaPorta had nine catches for 65 yards, while running back Jahmyr Gibbs scored a touchdown and gained 114 total yards.   

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But it wasn’t plain sailing by any means. Through their first six possessions, the Lions punted four times and crossed into Bucs territory just twice as Tampa’s HC Todd Bowles shut down their ground game. But this team knows how to stay calm and make the necessary adjustments. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who looks set to land a head coaching gig once Detroit’s season ends, didn’t panic in the face of adversity, he just used the passing game to open things up for Gibbs. Touchdowns followed on the Lions’ next three drives.

Detroit have set themselves up nicely for the next few years with a trio of emerging stars in Gibbs, St Brown and LaPorta but for me, the ace in the pack is Coach Campbell. Exactly three years ago, the former tight end made headlines for his infamous introductory press conference, when he said his team would be biting kneecaps off and kicking teeth in. And when he started 0-10-1 and then 4-19-1, the critics piled in and the vultures started to circle. But Campbell stuck to his guns and steadily turned it around, improving from a three-win team in 2021 to one that’s about to play its first NFC title game in 32 seasons.

For all his potty-mouthed passion, Metallica quotes and meme-fodder clichés (if you watched Hard Knocks, you’ll know), the guy can coach football, build a culture and lead a team. He gives his guys the kudos when things go well and clearly believes in them. They obviously believe in him too. Everyone inside the camp seems bought in and thinks they can go all the way. And now, after three decades in the wilderness, the Ford Field faithful can finally dare to believe too. [ST]

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KC’s killer combo

There are three things in life you can be sure of: death, taxes and a Mahomes-to-Kelce touchdown pass in a big playoff game. And that lethal connection – between the best QB and the best TE in the league – proved to be the undoing of the Buffalo Bills in a 27-24 Kansas City Chiefs win on Sunday night. The pair now have the most combined TDs (16) by any QB–receiver duo in NFL postseason history, overtaking Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski.

Ironically, Travis Kelce (who posted five catches for 75 yards) was in the middle of a seven-game spell without a touchdown, his second-longest drought of a very productive career. But in the second quarter, Kelce hauled in a 22-yard TD pass and after halftime, his red-and-yellow gloves stuck to a 3-yard throw and he fought his way over the line near the pylon before directing lovehearts towards girlfriend Taylor Swift and brother Jason in celebration. The 34-year-old now has 18 TDs in the playoffs, and could edge closer to Jerry Rice’s postseason record (22) next week in the AFC Championship decider.

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Having battled back from 6-6 with six straight wins, the Bills have essentially been playing playoff football for two months and were definitely the team with momentum. In contrast, KC have been more inconsistent of late, with their offense ranked just 15th in scoring. But with Patrick Mahomes and his number one target in determined mood, you write these perennial Super Bowl contenders off at your peril – even when Mahomes is playing his first playoff game on the road.

This growing AFC rivalry produced yet another classic. The lead changed five times and neither team led by more than seven points. But the Bills found a new way to lose to the Chiefs, who have extinguished their season in three of the past four playoffs. After succumbing 38-24 in the 2020 AFC Championship game, Buffalo came up short in an epic 42-36 overtime loss in the Divisional Round a year later. This time, the result was even closer and the jeopardy came in the form of a game-tying FG attempt with 1:47 remaining. Alas for Buffalo, Tyler Bass’ 44-yard kick swerved off to the right and the Chiefs ran the clock down.

While this loss may not hit as hard as the “13 second” game from 2021, the heartache from yet another close-but-no-cigar, what-might-have-been season will linger in Buffalo. Meanwhile, the Chiefs will have to sharpen up in a few areas – Mecole Hardman not fumbling the ball through the end zone for a turnover, for example – if they’re going to give the Baltimore Ravens a run for their money at M&T Bank Stadium this weekend. It’s another road trip for Mahomes, Kelce and co but as they’ve just proved, with that dynamic duo in their ranks, you can never rule them out. [ST]

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Baker proves he’s worth the dough

Moving on to his fourth team in two years, Baker Mayfield bet on himself at the start of this season by signing a one-year ‘prove it’ deal with Tampa Bay. Having ‘proven it’ by throwing for more than 4,000 yards, 28 TDs and 10 INTs, the wager seems to have paid off.

The Bucs backed their way into the playoffs by winning the sub-par NFC South, then beat the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card Round and gave the feisty Lions a scare on Sunday before bowing out 31-23. Mayfield had a lot to do with that run of success and on Sunday, he played his part too, trying to keep his team in the game as his defense struggled.

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Unfortunately, with the Buccaneers fighting back from a two-score deficit against Detroit, Baker threw a devastating interception with 1:35 remaining. He’d tried to squeeze a pass into tight end Cade Otton, but it was cut out by Derrick Barnes. The pick ended the game and the Bucs’ season, leaving the QB bent over, head in hands in horror and disbelief. Tampa’s first possession of the game had also ended in an INT, although that pass bounced right off Mike Evans’ hands. Nonetheless, despite the turnovers, and the four sacks, Mayfield rallied his troops time and again, completing 26 of 41 passes for 349 yards and three touchdown passes. 

After the game, he confirmed that he would like to return to the Gulf Coast of Florida in 2014, adding that he’d also like 30-year-old receiver Mike Evans, who had eight catches for 147 yards and a TD on Sunday, there with him. “The guy hasn’t regressed at all,” Mayfield said. “I think he had one of his best years. He makes my life easy. So yeah, if I’m back, I want Mike back. That guy’s a stud.”

HC Todd Bowles agreed that Mayfield has earned the right to return but with the franchise tag for QBs projected to be approaching $36 million in 2024, Bucs GM Jason Licht will need to do some financial jiggery-pokery. Licht also wants Evans to sign a new deal. After all, he is the franchise’s all-time leader in receptions, receiving yards, receiving TDs and total TDs, and has just become the only player in NFL history to surpass 1,000 receiving yards in 10 consecutive seasons. So however it shakes out, I suspect Mayfield and Evans will both be in demand… and in the money. [ST]

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PICK SIX – Wild Card Round

Or the Super Wild Card Round, as the NFL likes to call it. The playoffs opened up with six intriguing games – two each on Saturday, Sunday and Monday – so our resident scribes, Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler, have picked three each to dive into. For tales of Arctic weather, young QBs putting older ones in their place and a couple of surprisingly high scores, read on…    

Chiefs D in their element

According to legendary Alabama coach Bear Bryant, “offense sells tickets but defense wins championships”. And sure enough, when the Chiefs beat the Dolphins 26-7 on Saturday night to reach the AFC Divisional Round for a sixth straight season, it was Steve Spagnuolo’s defensive unit that dominated proceedings.

With the temperature at Arrowhead plummeting to -32°C with wind chill, making it the fourth-coldest NFL game ever, icicles were seen dangling off Andy Reid’s moustache, fans were decked out in ski wear and Mahomes’ helmet shattered like plastic after a hit from safety DeShon Elliott. But despite the inhospitably cold conditions, the Chiefs D were on fire. Through the first three quarters, the league’s second-ranked defense froze Miami out, limiting them to 151 total yards and one big play, a 53-yard TD pass to Tyreek Hill. They pressured Tua Tagovailoa 16 times, sacked him twice (George Karlaftis getting 1.5 of those) and forced him to delay passes or make errant ones by keeping Hill (on his much-touted return to Kansas City) and Jaylen Waddle under wraps. Even the run game got iced, with neither Raheem Mostert nor De’Von Achane able to bust out anything longer than 8 yards.

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On the other side of the ball, Miami’s depleted defense (no Chubb, Phillips, Van Ginkel or Holland) tried to blitz Patrick Mahomes but he seemed chill all game, even on the rare occasions he has a defender up in his grille. After a lukewarm season, the Chiefs offense finally turned up the heat with 409 yards and 25 first downs. Second-year RB Isiah Pacheco rumbled for 89 yards and a TD, aided by a further 41 rushing yards by Mahomes himself, while another young buck, rookie Rashee Rice, had eight catches for 130 yards and a TD. Travis Kelce (seven for 71 yards) and kicker Harrison Butker (four field goals) were the other standouts.

Injuries and the weather were clearly factors in Miami hitting their lowest points tally of the season but the narratives about the one-and-done Dolphins still hold water: they can’t beat teams with a winning record and their Hawaiian QB can’t win in cold-weather games. Having been the NFL’s hottest team for a while, they definitely cooled off down the home straight, slipping from favourites to frauds as their once-promising campaign ended with consecutive losses to the Ravens, Bills and Chiefs. In turn, those defeats ended up costing them the top seed in the AFC (and subsequent home ties played in 80 degrees), the AFC East title and then what would have been only their second playoff win this century.

As for KC, they not only coped with the Arctic conditions, they thrived in them. Coach Reid notched his 23rd playoff victory, the defense was dominant, Mahomes was unflustered, Pacheco and Kelce were solid, and Rice posted the most receiving yards by a rookie receiver in a home game in NFL playoff history. Like cybermen from Doctor Who, the Chiefs march on through the postseason with an ominous inevitability, seemingly untroubled by ice and wind, aquatic mammals or anything else. [ST]

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When defense doesn’t win championships

“We picked a bad day to have a bad day,” said Cleveland Browns coach Kevin Stefanski. “Just disappointing.” Did they ever? And was it ever.

The Houston Texans crushed the Browns 45-14 on Saturday to advance past the Wild Card Round in a humbling rout that could’ve been worse. Cleveland’s vaunted pass rush, headlined by Myles Garrett, produced one quarterback hurry and zero sacks against the Texans rookie passer, CJ Stroud. There were big plays and missed tackles a plenty and the Texans could’ve put up a 60-burger.

The Browns entered the playoffs looking like they had the goods to make a deep run. Their defense had been the most dominant unit of any to make the postseason, and shut down the San Francisco 49ers’ top-ranked offense in October. They rattled Lamar Jackson in November. And they surged into the playoffs with a string of stifling performances in December. But in January, when it really counted, Cleveland’s defense was absent. Stroud completed 16 of 21 passes for 274 yards and three touchdowns before exiting early in the fourth quarter with the game well in hand.

Joe Flacco’s back-to-back pick-sixes eliminated any hope of another Cleveland comeback. But Stroud was cooking the Browns defense long before that. The Texans’ 24 first-half points were the most Cleveland had surrendered this year, and Houston’s 286 yards were the most the Browns had allowed in any half all season.

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Houston located their opponents’ vulnerabilities early and often. They even capitalised on the aggressiveness of linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who was the lone Browns player on either side of the ball to bring his best, highlighted by his four tackles for loss. After the Browns had taken a 14-10 lead on the opening play of Houston’s next possession, Stroud rolled right off play-action. Instead of sticking with tight end Brevin Jordan, who looked like he would stay in and block on the play, Owusu-Koramoah went after Stroud along with defensive end Ogbo Okoronkwo. Stroud tossed the ball to the uncovered Jordan, who dashed through cornerback Martin Emerson Jr.’s arm tackle on the way to a 76-yard touchdown. The Texans regained the lead, 17-14, and never relinquished it.

The Browns kept on making mistakes. And when it became evident that Cleveland wouldn’t be able to slow down Stroud or the Texans, DC Jim Schwartz opted against making any major adjustments, especially in coverage. They couldn’t get going or do much of anything against the youngest quarterback to ever win a playoff game in the Super Bowl era. The Browns didn’t bring their best to the postseason – and no-showed when it mattered most. [SB]

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Love will tear us apart

In a Super Wild Card matchup that brought the home side very little joy, division winners Dallas succumbed to an early onslaught when hosting the No.7 seed Green Bay Packers. The Cowboys trailed 27-0 shortly before half-time and while they eventually lost by a more flattering scoreline of 48-32, the damage had already been done.

As the NFC’s second seed, Dallas were riding a 16-game home winning streak, having won all eight this year with a +172 point differential. The odds may have been stacked against Matt LeFleur’s Packers but QB Jordan Love – who sat behind Aaron Rodgers for three years to earn his shot – has been electric of late. Since Week 11, he’s gone 7-2 with 21 TDs and just one interception, and there was a whole lotta Love on show again on Sunday night. His passer rating of 157.2 (interestingly, the same as CJ Stroud’s) is the highest in a road playoff game in the Super Bowl era and it would’ve been perfect if not for a garbage-time drop by Tucker Kraft. Even though he completed just 16 passes, the largely unpressured QB had plenty of time to shred the Dallas defense, amassing 272 yards, three TDs and 0 INTs as the Pack stunned AT&T Stadum into silence.

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The main beneficiary of the Love bombs was Romeo Doubs (151 receiving yards and a TD from just six receptions), while Luke Musgrave and Dontayvion Wicks also caught touchdown passes. With a healthy dose of Aaron Jones (21 carries for 118 rushing yards and 3 TDs) added to the mix, it was soon clear that Dan Quinn’s defence – ranked fifth over the regular season – couldn’t stop a dripping tap, let alone this increasingly impressive Green Bay attack. The 48 points Dallas shipped set an unwanted postseason record for the franchise and must cast serious doubts in the minds of those currently considering Quinn as a potential HC hire.

After a sticky patch, the Packers defense also chose a good time to come out and play. They forced Dak Prescott into two first-half turnovers – a Jaire Alexander INT and a Darnell Savage pick-six – and were seconds away from shutting the Cowboys out in the first half. Prescott, the one-time MVP favourite, just couldn’t get on the same page as his targets, and failed to record any passing yards in the first quarter. By the end, Cee Dee Lamb (110 yards), Michael Gallup (103 yards) and Jake Ferguson (93 yards and 3 TDs) had made their mark on the box score, but the Packers were already 32 points to the good and resting key defensive players by the time the league’s highest-scoring team finally started to click.

Just like they have over the last quarter of a century or so, the Dallas players will now watch the latter stages of the postseason from the comfort of their couches, while Mike McCarthy – despite becoming the first Dallas coach with three consecutive 12-win seasons – will have an uncomfortable time waiting for Jerry Jones to call after losing to the franchise he once led to Super Bowl glory.

In contrast, Green Bay (who, don’t forget, were 3-6 midway through the season) become the first 7th seed to win a playoff game since the expanded 14-team format was introduced in 2020. The youngest team in the league progresses to the Divisional Round for the fourth time in five years only this time, it’s with a new QB, a promising cast of offensive playmakers and a very bright future. The betting for Saturday’s game against top seeds San Francisco may have opened with them as 9.5-point underdogs but as Mark Twain once wrote, “It’s not the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the fight in the dog.” And if Sunday’s win is anything to go by, there’s a lot of fight in this dog. [ST]

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Goff wins the big one at last

Has a kneel-down ever generated such a noise? As Jared Goff directed the Ford Field fans to get even louder, he took the final snap and ended his long-suffering franchise’s playoff drought after 32 years.

It was billed as Goff vs Stafford, the past against the present, and Goff came through in a big way. Against the franchise he once led to the Super Bowl, Goff was 22 of 27 for 277 yards and a touchdown. He also threw the crucial completed pass for a victory-sealing first down against the team that cast him away, beating Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams 24-23 on Sunday night.

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The Lions ended a nine-game postseason losing streak – the longest in NFL history – that dated back to a victory over Dallas on 5 January 1992. They lost a home playoff game two years later and hadn’t hosted one since. But now Detroit, the NFC’s No.3 seed, will have two home playoff games for the first time in their 90-year franchise history, hosting Tampa Bay in the Divisional Round next Sunday. The Lions started strong and looked as fired up as their long-suffering fans, with rapper and Motor City native Eminem in the house along with Hall of Famers Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson.

With that said, LA was always in this contest. Stafford, who played most of the game with a bandaged and bloody hand after he slammed it into a defender’s helmet, finished 25 of 36 for 367 yards with two touchdowns. The Rams moved the ball at will for much of the game, but had to settle for short field goals by Brett Maher to get to 24-23 with 8:10 remaining. Stafford has made a career of fourth-quarter comebacks, a fact that the fans at Ford Field were well aware of. With a chance to put the Rams ahead for the first time, he led a drive to the Detroit 34, but the Lions’ defense forced him backwards from there. Detroit took over with 4:07 to go, and Los Angeles had only one timeout left after calling two earlier in the half to cope with the crowd noise. That allowed Goff to take a knee after his throw to Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Detroit drafted Stafford No.1 overall in 2009 and while he put up great statistics, he didn’t win a playoff game in his 12 seasons in Michigan. Stafford hugged dozens of Detroit’s players and staff members after the game and, in a classy act, he signed off with “I’m happy for the players, I’m happy for those guys.” It’s a trade where both sides can claim to be very happy with the results. [SB]

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Philly’s season scuttled by the Buccaneers

Well, shiver me timbers, the Philadelphia Eagles’ implosion is complete. After completing five straight wins to go 10-1, they stumbled to 11-6 and now they’re one-and-done in the playoffs, losing 32-9 to the swashbuckling Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium.

The defending NFC champions played like they were walking the plank from the off, looking disinterested on offense and scared on defense. Other than DeVonta Smith, the lone bright spark with eight catches for 148 yards, their passing game was clearly missing the injured AJ Brown. They failed to convert a single third down and went scoreless in three quarters, Dallas Goedert’s TD and their single field goal both coming in Q2. Summing up their day, their ground game delivered just 42 yards and the Bucs even managed to repel their notorious ‘Brotherly Shove’ on a two-point conversion attempt.

To be fair, Tampa Bay had looked like scurvy dogs coming into the game too and only locked up the NFC South last week with an ugly 9-0 win over the lowly Panthers. But their performance on Monday night was a vast improvement. They mustered 426 total yards, with five players exceeding 45 receiving yards and Rachaad White (72 rushing yards) running well. Todd Bowles’ blitz-heavy defense also gave Jalen Hurts, playing with an injured finger, no time and no place to run.

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While Tampa Bay were aggressive on both sides of the ball, Philly tackled like it was a flag football game. The Bucs finished with 219 yards after catch, with Trey Palmer’s 56-yard touchdown reception a classic case in point: he should have been stopped by corner James Bradberry (and others) after snagging a six-yard pass, not left unchecked to run half the length of the field. As well as some offseason tackling practice, some new playing personnel wouldn’t go amiss, with center Jason Kelce announcing his retirement on Tuesday, and Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham possibly playing their last game in green too. And after dropping six of the last seven, I’m sure Head Coach Nick Sirianni will also be ‘having a chat’ with GM Howie Roseman.

Like Green Bay, Tampa fought back from a midseason hole (4-7) and having won six of seven, seem to be revelling in their role as the dark horse slipping in under the radar. Had they faced a stronger opponent, their early drops (half a dozen in the first half alone) might have cost them. But Baker Mayfield, playing through a rib issue, did enough to compensate from his clumsy teammates, racking up 337 yards and three touchdowns. After bouncing around four teams in three years, he seems to have silenced his critics with his best season to date and helped the Buccaneers pillage their third straight NFC South title. But this weekend, he and his butter-fingered receivers will need to be shipshape for a much sterner challenge: a Divisional Round clash with the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. [ST]

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Snow plough Josh

After seeing some of the images of Highmark Stadium on Sunday, it is quite remarkable that we got a game on Monday. The Buffalo faithful came out in force to get the game against Pittsburgh on, albeit a day later than originally scheduled, and as a reward for all their snow-shovelling, quarterback Josh Allen gave them one of the most memorable plays in postseason history. 

Faced with 3rd-and-7 from the Bills 48-yard line, Allen began to scramble. His rookie season was filled with highlight rushes but it has been a part of his game that has been restricted in more recent times. This scramble, however, had picked up enough for first-down yardage and, because he was close to the sideline, you could see plenty of encouragement from his teammates and coaches for him to slide. He didn’t.

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A full 52 yards later, he was in the end zone. He was seemingly aboard a snow plough all of his own after the initial part of his run when it became apparent that the opportunity of getting to the end zone was opening up for him. He turned on the engine boosters as a bunch of Steelers were left floundering and wondering what had just happened.

Allen’s play powered Buffalo to a 31-17 victory over the Steelers. Cue the snow being thrown in the air around Highmark Stadium. Allen finished the rescheduled game by completing 21 of 30 passes for 203 yards and three passing touchdowns. He also ran for 74 yards on eight carries and the score. The touchdown run was the longest rushing score in Bills postseason history and the second-longest by a quarterback ever, behind only Colin Kaepernick (56 yards, 2012 Divisional Round).

Allen’s third career playoff game was marked with four combined passing and rushing touchdowns, tying Joe Montana and Patrick Mahomes for the most in NFL history, and zero turnovers. It was just the second time since Week 4 that Allen did not turn the ball over. A reduction in turnovers by the Bills offense has been tied to Joe Brady taking over play calling in Week 11 and his increase in running the football. From Weeks 1 through 10, Buffalo had a designed rush percentage of 36% and a drive turnover of 17%. Since then, the rushing play percentage has increased to 47 and the drives that end in turnovers has dropped to 10%.

Despite the freezing cold temperatures, it is safe to say the Bills are getting hot at just the right moment. Next up, their kryptonite: the Kansas City Chiefs. Maybe this time, they can get over the hump.

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PICK SIX – Week 18

Well, there you have it. Another regular NFL season, all 18 weeks of it, is behind us. For 14 teams, there’s more to come as the playoffs begin while the rest slink off home to lick their wounds, revise their strategies, assess their on- and off-field personnel and, in a couple of cases, have a good old cry. Probably. In the meantime, Sean Tyler and Shaun Blundell dissect six more exciting, entertaining and intriguing things from the first week of 2024 action.

Ten-win Texans back in the big time

Back in September, the Houston Texans had a rookie quarterback, their fourth Head Coach in as many years and just 11 victories to show for the previous three campaigns. Come Saturday night, they had 10 wins, a bona fide franchise QB, an impressive HC in DeMeco Ryans, a Wild Card place in their back pocket and a shot at the division title. Yes, after three seasons of double-digit defeats, the 10-6 Texans returned to the postseason with a bang, winning the late Saturday night game against their divisional rivals, the Indianapolis Colts. The 23-19 victory in the win-or-go-home contest took them to the top of the AFC South, a position they retained when the Jaguars lost the following day.

Indy’s postseason hopes ended with just 1:06 remaining when, down by six, they turned the ball over on downs on a 4th-and-1 at Houston’s 15-yard line. Inexplicably, after Jonathan Taylor had run 30 times for 188 yards, the Colts’ star running back was kept on the sideline for the crucial play. Gardner Minshew underthrew a quick pass, Tyler Goodson couldn’t reel in and that was that. An odd decision that I bet HC Shane Steichen would like to take back.

While the Texans’ D sealed the deal, it was their impressive attack that stole the show. On their very first offensive snap, CJ Stroud – playing in his first primetime game – threw a bomb half the length of the field, with Nico Collins taking it in stride for a 75-yard TD catch-and-run. And with Tank Dell, Robert Woods and Noah Brown all out injured, the Stroud-Collins connection went on to dominate the game script. The young QB finished with 20 of 26 for 264 yards with two touchdowns and became only the fifth rookie ever to throw for 4,000 yards in a season. Meanwhile, Collins caught all nine of his targets for 195 yards and that early score, taking him over the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his three-year career.

These teams had a combined seven wins between them last season so battling it out for a playoff berth this time around suggests that both rebuilds are well ahead of schedule. Reaching Week 18 with a shot at the division title is clearly a tick in the box for Steichen, and his team could push on next year with a few shrewd additions. Meanwhile, back in training camp, Stroud declared that the Texans would “shock the world” this season… and so it’s proved. He remains the favourite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year while Ryans has a solid claim to be NFL Coach of the Year in his debut campaign. That said, I suspect both would sacrifice individual honours in favour of a deep playoff run. Given their explosive offense and the league’s third-best run defense, Houston’s next opponents –Cleveland – won’t be taking anything for granted in the Wild Card round. [ST]

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From Jordan with love

While CJ Stroud has taken plenty of headlines as the dazzling rookie QB of 2023, maybe more attention should be going the way of a quarterback who only became a full-time starter this year: Jordan Love. Unlike his much-talked-about predecessors in Green Bay, Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, Love can claim the distinction that he is a playoff quarterback in his first season as a full-time starting QB, doing so with the league’s youngest roster to boot.

The upwards trajectory has been gradual. Over the final eight games, Love completed over 70% of his passes and tossed 18 touchdowns against just one interception. For the entire campaign, Love finished second in the NFL with 32 touchdown passes, a 64.2% completion rate and 4,159 yards. All but one of those touchdowns were to either first- or second-year players, highlighting the bright future ahead for this organisation.

With a playoff berth on the line once again, Love had a day to remember and led the Packers to a 17-9 win over visitors Chicago. Love was brilliant, completing 27 of 32 passes (84.4%) for 316 yards. He threw two touchdowns, no interceptions and had a passer rating of 128.6. The man himself was in a reflective mood post-game. “You want to play in big-time games and, when the pressure’s on, just to be able to go showcase what you’re made of,” Love said. “Definitely being on the bench for those three years, and being behind Aaron and wanting to be out there so bad, now that I’ve got my opportunity, just making the most of it, taking it and running with it.”

Love has certainly accomplished that, which is why the Packers finally shone in a huge game – something that, despite his individual brilliance, had been the knock on Aaron Rodgers in recent times. The Packers threw away the playoffs in Week 18 last year but were not to be denied with their new quarterback in situ this time around. 

Next up, the playoffs: a place few believed possible when they sat at 2-5 a few short months ago. With the win, the Packers improved to 9-8, earned the No.7 seed in the NFC and will head to Dallas for a Wild Card game. If Love can continue to show his second half of the season form, it will be a tricky proposition for the Cowboys. [SB]

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Hit-and-miss Bills take AFC East title

At Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium, the 11-6 Buffalo Bills won their fifth straight game, clinched their fourth consecutive AFC East title and locked up the No.2 seed in the conference. Yet six weeks ago, few pundits even had them making the playoffs after a mid-season slump threatened to derail their year. November losses to the Bengals, Broncos and Eagles left the Bills at 6-6 but they’ve bounced back, seeing off the Chiefs, Cowboys and Dolphins in recent weeks. They’re now the only team since playoff seedings began in 1975 to earn a top 2 seed after being .500 or below with five games left.

Buffalo rallied from 14-7 down at the start of the final quarter against Miami to beat their divisional rivals 21-14, and the late turnaround mirrored their entire season to perfection. There were mistakes and missed chances, injuries to the defense and turnovers by the offense. But when it mattered most, they found a way and came up smelling of roses. Fans were treated to the full spectrum of what Josh Allen offers. Bad Josh started the game with three turnovers – two end-zone picks (taking him to a career-high 18 INTs for the season) and a fumble just outside the red zone – but Good Josh prevailed, playing lights out in the fourth quarter (going 7 of 7 for 83 yards). Overall, he threw for 359 yards and two TDs, and led the team with 67 rushing yards, including a signature 15-yard scramble on a 3rd-and-13.

Several of Buffalo’s unsung heroes shared the limelight with their quarterback. WR Trent Sherfield had just 11 catches before Sunday but it was his toe-drag grab at the back of the end zone that gave Buffalo their first TD, albeit from a throw that ricocheted off a Miami helmet. Deonte Harty found a seam and posted an electric 96-yard punt return TD to tie the game at 14-14. And tight end Dawson Knox got the go-ahead score with 7:16 on the clock before Taylor Rapp’s first INT for Buffalo put a full stop on the contest.

The Dolphins, held to just 57 yards of total offense after the break, have now gone 15 straight seasons without a division title and they’ve dropped three of their last five games. But all is not lost; postseason football awaits and everyone has a clean slate. As the No.6 seed, their path to a potential Super Bowl starts in Kansas City on Saturday night, with Tyreek Hill returning to Arrowhead for the first time since his trade. But unless some of their injured stars – Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips and Xavien Howard – return, it could be a tall order.

As for Buffalo, they host the Pittsburgh Steelers at Orchard Park, where they are 7-1 this season. They’re the AFC’s in-form team but Allen’s hot-and-cold play could define how this one goes. Bad Josh might make their Wild Card matchup more competitive than it should be. Conversely, Good Josh, the league leader in passing touchdowns (44), might just blow them away. Will the real Josh Allen please stand up and make himself known? [ST]

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Fitting end for a legend

Sorry Bill Belichick, this isn’t your section. No, this title is for Titans running back Derrick Henry. He gave Tennessee fans some great memories over his eight seasons with the team and it’s only fitting that he should end his tenure (likely) with a final stat line of 153 yards rushing and a touchdown against old divisional foe Jacksonville. It ended a miserable finish to the campaign for the Jags who somehow managed to throw away a playoff berth after leading the division for three months. 

This piece, though, is about Henry. The man simply known as “King” took a microphone post-game and addressed the crowd at Nissan Stadium. “Titans fans, I just want to say thank you for the greatest eight years of my life,” he said. “The ups and the downs, y’all been there for everything — through the adversity, watching me grow as a person and a player, always supporting me. I love y’all. … Hopefully I was an inspiration to all the young kids and everybody in the community.”

Henry’s contract technically goes for two more years, but is out of guaranteed money. With a looming Head Coaching change now also confirmed, it’s very likely his tenure is over. He could find a role on a team somewhere as a short-yardage back but as a running back now in his 30s, his prime is likely behind him.

He became Tennessee’s featured running back in 2019, leading the league in rushing yards and rushing attempts that season – as well as in 2020 – helping the Titans lead the playoffs both times, while earning Pro Bowl honours personally. The next year, Henry became the first NFL player since Adrian Peterson in 2012 to surpass 2,000 rushing yards in a single season. He reached the Pro Bowl two more times, in 2022 and 2023, after injuries limited him in 2021. In total, Henry rushed for 9,349 yards and accounted for 98 total touchdowns during his time in Nashville. 

It is a badge that is given out far too often these days but, Derrick Henry, you sir, are a legend. [SB]

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Jalen hurts finger as Philly falter (again)

At this time of the year, it’s inevitable that some teams find themselves on a bit of a losing streak but they usually have to pack up for the offseason as a result. The woeful Panthers have lost 15 times this season and failed to score a point in their last two games, while the 4-13 Commanders have lost eight on the bounce. The Jaguars lost five of their last six, the Chargers have lost five straight and the Vikings four. None are playing again till September. But the Philadelphia Eagles have lost four of their last five too. Yep, the “11-6, runners-up in the NFC East, 5th seed in the conference” Eagles.

Philly started the 2023 campaign on fire, racing out to 5-0. By early December, their record stood at 10-1 and we all thought emulating last year’s run to the Super Bowl was the minimum they should expect. Then the wheels fell off. In the last six weeks, the Eagles have suffered losses to the Niners, Cowboys, Seahawks, Cardinals – and now a 27-10 defeat to the New York Giants. They look a totally different team now and not in a good way. Their consistency has deserted them and the flair and fun seem to have gone with it.

With three first-half turnovers and some pretty abject defense against a Tyrod Taylor-led Giants team, Philly soon found themselves 24-0 down at MetLife. With defeat all but assured before half time, Nick Sirianni began pulling his starters but even so, it wasn’t soon enough. Jalen Hurts went 7 of 16 for 55 yards before his finger “popped out”, Marcus Mariota joining the fray in his stead, while AJ Brown made one catch for 9 yards before getting his knee banged up. Should the likes of Hurts and Brown have even been on the field? Most would argue “not on your Nelly”, even without the benefit of hindsight. Time will tell if these injuries impact them this weekend or beyond.

In their favour, their Wild Card opponents are the 9-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who won the NFC South despite managing just three field goals in a 9-0 win over the Panthers. They don’t look like a playoff team and are probably the weakest of the bunch on the NFC side of things. But maybe they think the same about the dysfunctional Eagles? Philly have been well below par for weeks and Sunday’s performance didn’t suggest that things are going to change anytime soon. With their season on the line, they have less than a week to rediscover their mojo. [ST]

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Rolex sales spike

Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones backed himself in the offseason to secure his own reworked contract. That included a tidy $1.25 million bonus for accumulating 10 sacks. Thanks to his performance against the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend, Jones was laughing all the way to the bank.

The sack occurred in the third quarter when the Chargers were in the red zone looking to score a touchdown and take the lead. After sacking Easton Stick, Jones ran towards the sideline to celebrate with his teammates, including Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. If you like a big man dancing then, I highly recommend you search out the amusing clip on social media.

Having already secured a place in the playoffs before the game at SoFi Stadium, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid bucked a bit of a Week 18 trend and decided to keep Jones on the field for most of the contest. With the second half underway and time winding down, Reid had initially planned to take his stud defensive tackle out of the game to protect him from injury. Jones, however, managed to persuade Reid to let him stay on the field long enough to secure the sack he needed for his bonus.

It was a nice culmination to the story that took up a lot of column inches in the Chiefs preseason. It was excellent coaching and leadership on the part of Reid to not hold any grudges and allow Jones the opportunity to cash in on the incentive agreed upon the restructure. Above all else, it was also fitting for Jones to make his splash play on his final snap, particularly as he has hinted this may be his final season at Arrowhead.

Jones will not be seeing too much of the bounty, however, as he revealed after the game that the entire defensive line group, including the coaches and coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, would all be treated to a new Rolex. Jones recognises that football is the ultimate team sport and without the help of those around him, he wouldn’t be the star he backed himself to be ahead of the season. [SB]

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PICK SIX – Week 17

Happy New Year everyone, we hope you all enjoyed some NFL action to close out 2023. It’s the penultimate week of the regular season and Shaun Blundell is here to complete the holiday season Pick Six with three things that caught his attention as we head into a new calendar year.

MVP now locked and loaded?

As little as a couple of weeks ago, there was no clear favourite for the NFL MVP award. Fast forward a fortnight and a certain Lamar Jackson seemingly has his hands firmly on the trophy. The latest instalment of Lamar brilliance came as the Baltimore Ravens locked up the No.1 seed in the AFC after a completely dominant display against the Miami Dolphins in Week 17. The final score was an eye-opening 56-19.

It was reminiscent of the opening game of the 2019 season when Jackson took over as starter and orchestrated an offensive masterclass that produced 59 points – ironically also against Miami. Jackson used his legs, running six times for 35 yards and picking up some key first downs. This, however, was mostly about Lamar the passer. Living mostly from the pocket, he gashed the Dolphins defense with throws to eight different weapons. Jackson finished the game 18 of 21 for 321 yards and five passing touchdowns, good for a perfect 158.3 passer rating on the day. Surely, it all but secures that MVP crown.

Jackson may well be the shining light but there is no doubt that Baltimore looks like the most complete team in the AFC heading towards the playoffs. The defense was its usual gritty self and caused trouble for Miami after making adjustments at the end of the first quarter. Geno Stone recorded his seventh interception of the season and Roquan Smith added another pick in this game. Justin Madubike continues his career year with his 13th sack as does Kyle Van Noy, who recorded his 8th of the campaign. Special teams also contributed, with a Justice Hill 78-yard kick return to begin the second half that extinguished any hopes of a miracle second-half Miami comeback.

A day to forget for the Dolphins was capped off with injuries to Bradley Chubb, Xavien Howard and Tua Tagovailoa. They head to a must-win game against the Bills to secure the division title, the No.2 seed and at least the chance of a couple of home playoff games. Meanwhile, the Ravens must now decide how to manage their stars as they have secured the first round bye. A couple of years ago, John Harbaugh regretted not getting some reps into guys in Week 18, so let’s see what he does this time around. [SB]

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Anyone for the South?

Both the NFC and AFC South division titles will be on the line in Week 18. It’s advantage Jacksonville and Tampa Bay at the moment, but three teams in both divisions are still alive heading into the finale.

The Bucs could have wrapped up the NFC South on Sunday but chose the wrong time for an offensive stinker against the Saints. A turnover-laden day meant they had a goose egg on the board until the fourth quarter in a game New Orleans comfortably won by 10 points. Baker Mayfield tossed two picks and Trey Palmer had a key fumble when the improbable comeback was threatened. It keeps the Saints alive when they battle the Falcons this week. Atlanta suffered a 37-17 humiliation to the Bears and another loss next week would surely secure the firing of Arthur Smith… so losing might be beneficial. That game will be irrelevant, however, if the Bucs defeat the Panthers.

On the AFC side, it was a different set of performances that set up the grand finale as all three of the teams in contention found wins. The playoff spot is the Jags’ to lose after they were able to ride the legs of Travis Etienne and the boot of Brandon McManus in a comfortable win over the aforementioned Panthers. They will be hoping to get Trevor Lawrence back this week in a must-win game. The Colts got a good day out of Jonathan Taylor as they outlasted the Raiders. His 96 rushing yards were a season-high mark and the Colts will certainly want more out of their investment moving forwards. The Texans welcomed back CJ Stroud in a comfortable victory over the Titans. I’m sure they are wondering what might have been had he not suffered the concussion that meant he missed the Browns matchup.

The NFL schedule means that either the Colts or the Texans will lead the division as we enter the final Sunday as they have been slated to play on Saturday evening. It will then be over to Jacksonville to see how they handle the pressure in what might end up being the last game for Mike Vrabel as HC in Tennessee. The NFC South will be the feature of the early window on Sunday. [SB]

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Chiefs secure West in unfamiliar fashion

The Kansas City Chiefs winning the AFC West is nothing new. In fact, it is getting repetitive now, to the tune of eight consecutive seasons. We usually purr about the explosive offense, the brilliance of speedy wide receivers, the brute strength of their tight ends or the ridiculous angles Patrick Mahomes releases the ball from to make something out of nothing. This year, however, we are talking about the defense and the kicker.

The champs were in another hole on Sunday, down 10 points to the Bengals who themselves were clinging on to their playoff lives. Jake Browning’s 1-yard scramble at the midpoint of the second quarter that opened up that double-digit lead turned out to be their last points of the day as the Chiefs defense and placekicker took over.

The Bengals mustered four punts and a pair of turnovers on downs the rest of the way. The crucial one – on the opening drive of the second half – saw Joe Mixon stuffed in the backfield by Willie Gay when faced with 4th-and-1 at KC’s 6-yard line. It was one of eight tackles for loss, along with six sacks, as the Bengals offensive line’s woes reopened. Back-to-back sacks on the final Cincy drive was the final nail in the coffin of a season that threatened to be over a month ago. It was officially extinguished as the clocks ticked over to 2024.

The Chiefs themselves moved the ball well in the second half in particular but continually stalled in the red zone. It will undoubtedly be an area that they look to tidy up but on this day, the boot of Harrison Butker proved enough. He was a perfect 6-6 on his field goal tries, with four of them coming from at least 43 yards away.

They may not have reached their usual scintillating levels of performance throughout the season but it is another postseason appearance secured and another contest at least in Arrowhead. The tantalising matchup will see whoever loses this Sunday’s game between the Bills and the Dolphins heading West for the contest. Kansas City may need to rely on the formula of defense and special teams to be the difference maker once more. [SB]

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Playoffs: Who’s in and who’s out in the AFC? 

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It’s that time of year when we start seeing graphics on X (formerly known as Twitter) from ESPN, FOX and CBS about who is eliminated from playoff contention and who has clinched a playoff berth. 

While the AFC has some frontrunners the race for the wildcard spots is encapsulating viewing, for example, the AFC South has three teams on 8-6 alone. 

Let’s dive into the playoff picture, see who everyone still has to play and how the playoff picture may end up working itself out. 

The locks: 

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While this article is mostly about discussing the convoluted wildcard picture, we should pay homage to the teams at the top of the conference who are already locks to make it in. 

The Baltimore Ravens have already clinched their place in the playoffs, while the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs are definitely making the playoffs and will be playing at least one home game this January. 

Watch out for the week 17 clash as Miami heads into Baltimore in a matchup that could define who earns the all-important one seed in the AFC.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 

The Jaguars get their own tier because they’re definitely in, but aren’t 100% locked into the top of the AFC South (yet).

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Their schedule is one of the easiest down the stretch, they travel across Florida to play the resurgent, playoff-chasing, Tampa Bay Buccaneers this weekend before playing the Carolina Panthers and Tennesee Titans who are both out of the playoff picture. 

Jacksonville should win out from here thanks to their head-to-head record against the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans, if they can achieve that they will be top of the AFC South and earn themselves the fourth seed in the AFC.

Cleveland Browns:

The Browns are in and Kevin Stefanski needs to be nominated for Coach of the Year after his miraculous work with this team despite all of their injuries. 

They’re 9-5 and probably need one more win to solidify their position in the playoffs, (albeit a wildcard place due to the Ravens’ record atop the AFC North) their schedule is a tough one though. 

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Facing exclusively AFC opponents, Joe Flacco will be the signal-caller as they head to the Texans and the Cincinnati Bengals on either side of a home meeting with the New York Jets. 

While they’re all but in themselves the Browns could play a huge role in the rest of the AFC Wildcard picture playing two of the chasing pack both on the road.

The rest: 

Now, we’ve named five teams who are in for sure, most seasons we’d be discussing three or four teams who are fighting it out for the final two wildcard spots. 

Not in 2023, this year the AFC is a gauntlet, we have a six-horse race for the final two wildcard spots as we head into the latter part of December. 

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As of week 15, the Bengals and Colts are occupying the final two spots with 8-6 records, just outside because of tiebreakers are the Bills and Texans, while the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos are a game back at 7-7. 

Four of the six are playing backup quarterbacks and the Broncos and Bills have both experienced torrid runs at some stage this season. 

Yet somehow, with three weeks to go, every team is in the thick of the playoff race and it’s looking to be the most compelling run-in we’ve seen in a while. 

Who does everyone face? :

Buffalo Bills (8-6) – @ Chargers, vs Patriots, @ Dolphins 

Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) – @ Steelers, @ Chiefs, vs Browns 

Denver Broncos (7-7) – vs Patriots, vs Chargers, @ Raiders

Houston Texans (8-6) – vs Browns, vs Titans, @ Colts 

Indianapolis Colts (8-6) – @ Falcons, vs Raiders, vs Texans

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7) – vs Bengals, @ Seahawks, @ Ravens 

Who’s in and who’s out? : 

It’s impossible to call, none of these teams convince you that they’re going to run away with it and stroll into the wildcard places, but we can make some educated predictions. 

By the end of week 18, there’s the possibility that we see three teams with 11-6 records in the wildcard spots and two teams sitting on the outside looking with 10 wins and no postseason to show for it, on the contrary, in the NFC we could see teams with losing records make it into the playoffs.

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Buffalo Bills (Current record: 8-6, vs division 2-2, vs AFC 4-5, AFC games remaining – 3, Ninth seed)

Starting with the Bills, they have been rampant since losing to the Broncos on Monday Night Football in early November, despite being unlucky in the early half of the season they’re now earning their own luck and convincingly stringing together strong performances. 

They beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead and blew out the Dallas Cowboys at home, building some strong momentum ahead of their final three games. 

Given their form they should brush past the Chargers and the Patriots and Bills Mafia will have their trip to division rivals, the Dolphins in week 18 earmarked as a potential ‘win and in’ game. 

What complicates that, of course, is Miami could still be playing for the one seed in week 18 so won’t be pulling any punches, conversely, the Bills could find themselves in a situation where, if they win they win the entire AFC East, but if they lose they don’t make the playoffs at all.

Either way, it promises to be a show-stopping game that will likely head the national Sunday Night Football billing in week 18. 

Key game: Week 18 @ Miami Dolphins

Prediction: 10-7

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Cincinnati Bengals (Current record: 8-6, vs division 0-4, vs AFC 3-6, AFC games rem. 3, sixth seed)

When Joe Burrow got hurt it felt like most of the league had given up on the Bengals, no one would have been talking about them being a leading horse in the AFC playoff picture as of week 16. 

As it turns out, Lou Anarumo’s defence has done excellently keeping them in games allowing backup quarterback Jake Browning to play with little pressure and do enough to get them across the line in close games.

The Bengals face a tough schedule though and it’s difficult to see them going any better than 1-2 over this stretch. 

The best they can hope for is beating Pittsburgh on the road (an extremely tough task) and then beating the Browns who may have nothing to play for in week 18 at home. 

Key game: Week 16 @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Prediction: 8-9

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Denver Broncos (Current record: 7-7, vs div. 2-2, vs AFC 4-5, AFC games rem. 3, 11th seed)

The Broncos have the easiest schedule of the chasing pack and do hold the tiebreaker over the Bills as well as facing three beatable AFC opponents in their final three games. 

After starting 1-5 no one expected the Broncos to be anywhere near this conversation and it’s a credit to Sean Payton and Vance Joseph that the Broncos have a chance to make it in. 

The Texans hold a tiebreaker over the Broncos which could be a key factor to follow but facing three backup quarterbacks against teams that have nothing to play for may come into the Broncos’ favour.

Already being a game back at 7-7 their task is simple, you MUST win out and hope some of the teams around them drop games against other playoff chasers, or perhaps even slip up on a nonchalant game against a team that is already eliminated.

Key game: Week 18 @ Las Vegas Raiders

Prediction: 10-7

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Houston Texans (Current record: 8-6, vs div. 2-2, vs AFC 5-4, AFC games rem. 3, eighth seed)

Demeco Ryans is the probable front-runner for Coach of the Year, and for good reason. He’s totally transformed the Texans from a number-one pick candidate to a playoff contender overnight. 

CJ Stroud’s play at quarterback has been phenomenal and stands him in good stead to pick up the Offensive Rookie of the Year award at NFL Honours this February.

However, with Stroud in concussion protocol and Case Keenum starting at quarterback, partnered with a tough schedule featuring two playoff contenders and a division rival, the Texans face a huge challenge to make it in. 

They’re capable of beating anyone on their day and their next two games being at home helps massively, but they won’t want to be in a position requiring them to win on the road in Indianapolis in week 18 if they can help it.

Key game: Week 18 @ Indianapolis Colts

Prediction: 9-8

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Indianapolis Colts (Current record: 8-6, vs div. 3-2, vs AFC 6-4, AFC games rem. 2, seventh seed) 

The Colts have been on a rollercoaster ride in 2023, going from inconsistent, yet mesmerising play under rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, to the return of ‘Minshew Mania’, the Colts have continued to defy the odds. 

They have the best standing of any of the teams we’ve discussed because their divisional and conference records are superior to any team, but they also have one of the more inconsistent track records of any of the teams that we’ve looked at. 

They scraped past the Patriots in Germany, had a shootout with the Browns, were blown out against the Bengals and blew the Steelers out themselves, it’s so difficult to try and place the Colts on this list because they can go toe-to-toe with the best, but drop a game to absolutely anyone. 

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In week 16 they will head to the Atlanta Falcons who are a game back from the playoffs in the NFC South but are coming off the back of an embarrassing loss to the Carolina Panthers last week and somewhat mirror the Colts in their inconsistencies. 

Arthur Smith is on the hot seat and has resorted to his third quarterback change of the year opting for Taylor Heinicke and this is a game that the inconsistent Colts could drop given their record across the season as previously highlighted.

In their last two games, they welcome the Raiders who can cause any team problems on their day under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, and then fellow AFC South playoff hopefuls the Houston Texans in week 18. 

They’re the toughest team to place but given their divisional and conference records they’re certainly the favourites to make the wildcard round out of all the teams in the race. 

Key game: Week 18 vs Houston Texans

Prediction: 11-6

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Pittsburgh Steelers (Current record: 7-7, vs div. 3-1, vs AFC 5-5, AFC games rem. 2, 10th seed)

It’s well-documented that the Steelers have never had a losing record under head coach Mike Tomlin in his 16 years as head coach in the Steel City. 

While that streak could very much continue it’s difficult to see a scenario where the Steelers come out of their last three games as a wildcard team. 

They’d need to run the table due to their 7-7 record and they face three teams all with their eyes set on the post-season themselves. 

They welcome the Bengals in a huge game on Saturday before travelling across the country to Seattle to play the Seahawks who are currently one game out of the NFC wildcard picture before heading back across to Baltimore in week 18 who may be playing to secure the one seed. 

It’s certainly plausible that the Steelers win two of those games to preserve Tomlin’s streak but they will need to win out to even stand a chance, of getting into the playoffs. 

Key game: Week 16 vs Bengals 

Prediction: 8-9

Final Prediction: 

  1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4) 
  2. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) Head-to-head tiebreaker vs Miami
  3. Miami Dolphins (12-5)
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6)
  5. Cleveland Browns (11-6) Head-to-head tiebreaker vs Indianapolis (WC)
  6. Indianapolis Colts (11-6) (WC)
  7. Denver Broncos (10-7) Head-to-head record vs Buffalo (WC)
  8. Buffalo Bills (10-7) (OUT)
  9. Houston Texans (9-8) (OUT)
  10. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-9) Division record tiebreaker (OUT)
  11. Cincinnati Bengals (8-9) (OUT)
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Takeaways as the Broncos earn huge road win over AFC West rival Los Angeles Chargers

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For the first time since 2019, the Denver Broncos won an AFC West matchup on the road, toppling the Los Angeles Chargers in Sofi Stadium to improve to 7-6 on the year. 

After a disappointing loss last week, Sean Payton’s team needed to bounce back quickly in a road divisional matchup and they did just that in comprehensive fashion. 

So, on that note, let’s get into my takeaways from the Broncos’ 24-7 victory over the Chargers.

Playoff hopes are alive 

The loss in Houston felt like a real gut punch to Broncos fans and losing a tiebreaker to a playoff-chasing team will always sting. 

With that said the Broncos had still earned themselves the right to be in the playoff mix and due to other results going their way on Sunday they’re back in the thick of the wildcard chase. 

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Beating the Chargers all but eliminated them from playoff contention, while the Las Vegas Raiders also fell to a defeat, condemning them to another year without a playoff game.

Elsewhere, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans both lost in week 13 so they now make up two of the six teams with a record of 7-6 in the AFC wildcard hunt. 

The Buffalo Bills won a close game in Arrowhead to move them to 7-6 as well as holding the Cheifs back to 8-5 (one game ahead of the Broncos in the AFC West). 

The Cincinnati Bengals, led by backup quarterback Jake Browning, also demolished the Colts moving both teams to 7-6, completing the six-way tie for the last two wildcard spots. 

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The playoff race is as tight as ever in the AFC with three teams on 8-5 records and the six aforementioned 7-6 teams all gunning for first place in their division as well as wildcard berths.

With their remaining schedule, there’s no reason why the Denver Broncos can’t sneak into that sixth or seventh seed in the AFC come January.

Defence is back to its best 

The Broncos’ early season defensive struggles have been well-documented, as has their recent resurgence over the last seven games. 

Last week they didn’t have the same venom as they have done in recent weeks and they allowed Houston to get comfortable and produce chunk plays around them. 

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This week, Vance Joseph brought the heat and they didn’t allow Justin Herbert or the Chargers offence any chance to settle into the game. 

Herbert was even taken out of the game at halftime because of a suspected fractured index finger on his throwing hand meaning Easton Stick came into the game in the second half. 

The recipe for the Broncos’ success this season has been winning the turnover battle, in Houston they failed to do so, but this week they were around the ball like Hawks. 

They forced two fumbles as well as an interception, which teed up Javonte Williams to rush in for the go-ahead score. 

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Jaquan McMillian had a standout day flying off the edge, blitzing the quarterback from his nickel-corner position all day long and almost had a strip sack fumble recovery which he took to the house only for it to be called back for an incomplete pass instead. 

If the defence can maintain this level of play like we’ve seen during the miraculous mid-season turnaround then they can beat anyone left on their schedule. 

Offence is struggling to find consistency 

Despite the near-flawless play on defence, the scoreline should have been much more convincing than it was, but the offence just couldn’t get into a consistent groove. 

They struggled to move the ball in the first half and needed a Jonathon Cooper interception inside the 10-yard line to allow them to put up any points in the first half.

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It improved somewhat in the second half and Russell Wilson totted up two passing touchdowns, one to Adam Trautman wide open in the endzone and the other a deep ball to Courtland Sutton which was impressively hauled in taking him to double-digit touchdown receptions in 2023.

Brandon Staley’s defence has been playing well in recent weeks and that can’t be ignored, but if the Broncos are going to make a run the offence needs to back up the great play by the defence and string some drives together to get an early advantage in games.

Six doesn’t go into two

We’ve spoken about all the 7-6 playoff teams, but when it comes down to seeding there are only two wild card spots left to fill. 

The Cleveland Browns are 8-5 and the chances are they will be in the first wildcard spot, with the Baltimore Ravens currently having the one-seed at 10-3.

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In the AFC South, the Jacksonville Jaguars lost to the Browns and are now 8-5 themselves, they’re currently the four-seed in the AFC but the Houston Texans are also lingering at 7-6 just outside of the playoffs coming off of a disappointing loss to the New York Jets. 

Elsewhere, the Steelers, Bengals and Colts are all playing with backup quarterbacks and have shown holes in their games recently. 

The Texans might have to field Davis Mills in their divisional road matchup with the Tennessee Titans next week because CJ Stroud entered concussion protocol in their game against the Jets.

That leaves the Broncos and the Bills, who both have their starting quarterbacks still on the field and both are playing with momentum down the stretch. 

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The Bills have a difficult schedule, in week 15 they welcome the Dallas Cowboys before travelling to Miami in week 18 to face the Dolphins. 

As for Denver, they will take a trip to the faltering Detroit Lions next Saturday before hosting the New England Patriots, Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders in their final three games. 

A 3-1 record across that run would see the Broncos finish the season 10-7 and most would hope that gets you into the playoffs. 

However, in such a stacked AFC wildcard race you would be a brave person to place any bets on which of the six 7-6 teams will make the playoffs at the end of the season.

Week 15 preview 

In week 15 the Broncos will headline the NFL’s Saturday Showcase window when they enter Ford Field to take on Dan Campbell’s Detroit Lions in primetime. 

The Lions started the season hot and were the subject of conversations having them in the conversion with the Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers atop the NFC playoff picture.

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Fast forward eight weeks and their performances have been unconvincing and they’ve lost three games across that stretch including a demolition at the hands of Justin Fields.

They scraped over the line against the Bears as well during that stretch, as well as having narrow victories over the Chargers and the New Orleans Saints, winning by less than a touchdown in each game. 

They’re certainly a team to be got at and the way the Broncos have been playing recently there is no reason to be afraid of the Lions. 

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This could be a huge road win that propels the Broncos into the playoffs ahead of a key two-game home stretch before finishing the year on the road in Las Vegas.

UK viewers can catch the game live on Sky Sports in the early hours of Sunday morning with coverage starting at 1:15 am GMT.

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Takeaways as the Houston Texans end the Broncos’ five-game win streak

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The five-game winning run came to an end on Sunday and it made a fairly sizeable dent in Denver’s playoff hopes. 

Despite it being the Broncos’ worst performance since the week five loss to the New York Jets the Broncos did come within eight yards of winning the game late in the day once again. 

Without much further ado, here are my takeaways as another week of the regular season is in the books.

The season isn’t over 

No matter how difficult the loss is to take it’s important to remember two things; firstly, the Broncos weren’t supposed to be in this position playing meaningful games in December with genuine playoff aspirations. 

Secondly, the playoff hopes aren’t over yet, the loss to Houston hurts because of its implications with tiebreakers and in-conference records but thanks to other games this Sunday the Broncos are by no means out of the playoff race.

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The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns lost meaning the Broncos are only one game back from both teams as well as the Indianapolis Colts who needed overtime to scrape past the 4-8 Tennessee Titans. 

All three of those teams currently occupy the three wildcard spots and the Houston Texans are also only one game ahead of the Broncos. 

The Kansas City Chiefs also losing to the Green Bay Packers puts the Broncos two games back from the top of the division, adding more salt to the wounds of the loss, but with their game against a resurgent Buffalo Bills team out of their bye week the Broncos could be one game back from the division lead this time next week.

Sloppy first half 

The first half was poor, and much more akin to a performance we’d have seen from the Nathaniel Hackett Broncos last year. 

They couldn’t move the ball and found themselves in insurmountable third and long scenarios far too often. 

On the defensive side of the ball, they allowed Houston to have too many big plays early on, particularly from Nico Collins and ultimately they let CJ Stroud get comfortably in his rhythm early in the game.

Despite this, they should have held the Texans to only nine first-half points which would have made it a 9-3 game at halftime but Alex Singleton’s push on CJ Stroud (after an obvious headbutt from the rookie which the officials didn’t see) gave Houston a fresh set of downs in the red zone and they added seven to their total instead making it a two-score game going into halftime.

Texans’ defence stole the show 

Houston’s defence was electric all day long and they need to be given their flowers for how well they played on Sunday. 

Will Anderson lived in the backfield and toyed with Mike McGlinchey on the right of the offensive line all day long. 

The Broncos couldn’t run the ball effectively and as we’ve seen through this five-game stretch the run game is the basis of this team’s success.

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In the secondary, Derek Stingley Jr. finally announced himself to the league with two interceptions, the second of which was an excellent acrobatic pick. 

As well as the former third overall pick, experienced safety Jimmie Ward also capped off a good red zone stand from the Houston defence by sealing the game with an interception on the Broncos’ game-winning drive attempt late on.

Lost the takeaway battle 

Perhaps the major key for the Texans to win the game was the turnover battle, for the first time since their five–game win streak started they lost the turnover battle.

It’s the first time since week three they haven’t recorded a turnover either so the Texans really shut down both of the areas of Denver’s game which they were using to generate wins, running the ball and forcing turnovers.

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The Broncos did manage to force a fumble when star undrafted cornerback Jaquan McMillian sacked CJ Stroud on a blitz but the Broncos had three bites at the cherry and still couldn’t collect the fumble. 

Consequently, on the same drive, Houston scored and perhaps pushed the game out of reach from Denver, one of the many flashpoints in the game the Broncos found themselves on the wrong side of.

Week 14 preview 

In week 14 the Broncos will have a chance to get back on track with the first of four AFC games that they play, all against teams with losing records, on their run-in. 

It’s the second of their three-game road stretch as they travel to Los Angeles to play a Chargers team that has been inconsistent all season long. 

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Head coach Brandon Staley is on the hot seat and the Broncos can all but end their division rivals’ chances at making the postseason with a win. 

On Sunday they struggled to beat a poor Patriots team, only scoring six total points in a 6-0 win in Foxborough. 

Sean Payton will want to see his unit get back in the win column after a tricky loss, keeping them in the playoff hunt before a really tough road matchup at Detroit in week 15.