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Full10Yards to host NFL Kickoff Party at BOX Birmingham

We are returning to Birmingham for the start of the NFL season for our second NFL Kickoff Party on Sunday 8th September, 2024.

We’ve partnered with BOX, the official sports bar of the NFL in the UK, to host the Full10Yards’ NFL Kickoff Party, a celebration of the start of the NFL season showing the early and late evening games on opening Sunday.

This will be the second instalment, after last season’s event at Felsons Birmingham saw fans from across all NFL teams come together to watch the Sunday slate.

Unlike last year’s event, admission to the event is free and walk-ins are allowed. However, we do ask that people reserve a spot and indicate what games they want to see so we can make the right accommodations. Information and reservation can be found here.

Josh Henwood, Chair of Full10Yards, said: “We’ve wanted to create more opportunities to get the NFL fan community in the UK together and share our love of the game. There are plenty of opportunities in London, but outside of the capital, it’s less obvious where to go.”

“Our event at Felsons Birmingham last season was really successful with positive reviews from those who attended, and we knew that we wanted to grow the event this year. That’s why we’re delighted to partner with the NFL’s official sports bar in the Midlands and the North to host the 2024 edition.”

“BOX share our vision in not only finding ways to bring fans together, but also grow NFL fandom in the UK through its bars, which include Nottingham, Leeds, and Manchester as well as Birmingham – and we’re proud to partner with them to produce this event.”

“We’re looking forward to welcoming fans from across the UK and every NFL team as we look to start the season right!”

The event will also include competitions and games throughout the night. Reserve your free spot by clicking here.

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A tribute to… the Hail Mary

While the rules of American football do not explicitly mention the Hail Mary pass, it remains a thrilling aspect of the game. There’s little else that evokes the same anticipation, or suggests the same desperation, as these all-or-nothing, everything-on-the-line moments. In this first in an occasional series of off-season articles about some of the game’s much-loved but rarer plays, Sean Tyler explores the history of the Hail Mary in the NFL, outlines the tactics and techniques behind it, and revisits some of the greatest Hail Marys from years gone by.

How it all began

Because it’s not part of the game’s official lexicon, the term wasn’t coined by a coach, owner or even a commentator. In footballing terms, the expression dates back to October 1922, when players from Notre Dame (a Catholic university) twice said a prayer in the huddle before plays against Georgia Tech – and scored touchdowns in both instances.

As for the NFL, the first recorded reference came several decades later from Roger Staubach, the Dallas Cowboys quarterback. In a divisional playoff game against the Minnesota Vikings in December 1975, with just 32 seconds on the clock and Dallas trailing by four, legendary Head Coach Tom Landry called for a long pass and Staubach launched one from the halfway line. The slightly underthrown ball was tipped by receiver Drew Pearson five yards shy of the paint but he somehow trapped it between his arm and hip before taking it in for the winning score. Afterwards, Landry said “Our only hope was to throw it and hope for a miracle,” while Staubach – a devout Catholic – told reporters, “I just closed my eyes and said a Hail Mary.” The term appeared in several newspaper headlines the following day and has been part of NFL folklore ever since.

Mindset and mechanics

The prayer in question (“Hail Mary, full of grace, the Lord is with thee…”) eludes to summoning help from the powers that be to successfully make a long, low-probability, chuck-it-and-hope throw. Usually attempted when a team is too far from the end zone to try something more conventional, the term implies that it would take a miracle for the play to succeed – which is why we love it when it does. That success relies on several factors coming together in the perfect storm: the strength and technique of the quarterback, whether there’s enough time for the receiver(s) to get downfield, whether the opposing team can defend it and, in most cases, a massive slice of good fortune.

So how do you shift the odds in your favour? Well, according to Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, you practice. During his three years as an understudy to Brett Favre, he performed countless reps. “I got used to what it felt like, height and distance wise,” he told ESPN in a great article in 2019. “I’ve always been a little nerdy about that – watching the ball, seeing where it would land, remembering what that throw felt like. Was it all out? Was it 90 percent? Was it 80 percent? And just kind of locking those things away.”

As for Vikings QB Kirk Cousins, who has both a college and an NFL Hail Mary to his name, time is also crucial. “Can you find time in the pocket or can you escape the pocket and step up? By the time you run around a little bit, the receiver is in the end zone where you want them. It helps if you can buy as much time as possible, let the receivers get underneath the ball as it comes down.” And the numbers bear that out. According to ESPN tracking, the average time before a Hail Mary is thrown is 4.75 seconds – almost twice as long as a normal play.

So what about trajectory? The throw must go high and far enough to reach the end zone but not go out of the back – that’s quite a tight window if you’re 50 yards or more away. Quarterbacks tend to pull their arms farther back than normal and Cousins tilts his shoulders, with the front shoulder up and back shoulder down. “That will put the arc on it,” he confirms. “You want the ball coming down at the receivers. You don’t want a driven ball.”

A RARE TREAT: Due to the degree of difficulty, most attempts aren’t completed. In fact, there have only been 34 successful Hail Marys in the professional game since Staubach’s effort nearly 50 years ago.

All hail King Rodgers

While the Hail Mary is often seen as a last-ditch effort, some players have developed a reputation for launching long, accurate passes in clutch moments. Since Staubach, there have been several successful proponents of the Hail Mary. And where better to start than with the best of the best, Aaron Rodgers, who (thanks to all that practice) is the only quarterback with three successful NFL Hail Marys to his name.

One of the most famous of all time, christened the ‘Miracle in Motown’ by broadcaster Jim Nantz, came on the final play of a Thursday night game in December 2015 against the Packers’ NFC North rivals, the Detroit Lions. Because of a face mask penalty on the previous play, Green Bay – who’d been trailing most of the game – were given an extra play with no time on the clock. After the snap, Rodgers broke left to buy time while his receivers rushed downfield. Then he scrambled to the right to evade pressure and hurled a howitzer from his own 35-yard line. It dropped inside the end zone, where it was caught by the 6’4” Richard Rodgers II in front of a gaggle of Detroit players. (The tight end also caught a 67-yarder from Carson Wentz as a Philadelphia Eagle in 2020.)

The Rodgers-to-Rodgers connection, which brought a dramatic 27-23 victory, is still the longest Hail Mary touchdown in NFL history. According to estimations at the time, the ball travelled 69 yards and almost hit the rafters at Ford Field. Breaking it down afterwards, then-HC Mike McCarthy said: “When you throw it with that arc, it gives guys a chance to fight for position. And Richard is the perfect guy for that type of situation, with his ability to go up and high-point the football.”

Having won the NFL Play of the Year Award for the 2015 season for that one, Rodgers threw another just weeks later. This time, Green Bay were facing the Arizona Cardinals in the 2015 NFC Divisional Playoff game. Down by seven and with seconds remaining, Rodgers heaved another desperation pass into the end zone while Marcus Golden and others rushed to close him down. This time, the ball was caught by receiver Jeff Janis and the 41-yard reception sent the game into overtime (although the Cardinals ultimately prevailed).

Rodgers, the unofficial yet undisputed ‘King of the Hail Mary’, then uncorked a third the following year – again in the postseason. In the NFC Wild Card Game against the New York Giants, he let it fly from the 53-yard-line with the last play of the first half and Randall Cobb took the catch at the back of the end zone. Rodgers’ three career Hail Marys, which came during a span of just 13 months, travelled a combined 172 yards.

Talking on Pat McAfee’s show years later, Rodgers raised another interesting factor: the inability of defensive players to read the flight of the ball. “I think it just comes down to the way you throw it,” he said. “If you take out the Jeff Janis one, the other two I was trying to get to a clean spot and throw it as high as possible. On both of those, I think there was a misjudgement by a majority of the players as to where the ball was going to come down.”

A LONG SHOT… IN EVERY SENSE OF THE WORD: According to ESPN Stats and Information, only 9.7% of the 193 attempts from 2009 to 2019 were completed.

Double trouble: Dalton and Couch

Looking back through the annals of NFL history, there have been several other notable exponents of the Hail Mary. In particular, a couple of QBs from the AFC North have managed the feat twice (as has Russell Wilson, and we’ll come to him shortly).

In a 2013 battle with the Cincinnati Bengals, the Baltimore Ravens were leading 17-10 when, on the last play, Cincy’s Andy Dalton launched a 51-yard lob to the end zone on a 4th-and-15. The ball was deflected twice, once by each team, and while everyone else fell to the deck, the ball fell to AJ Green for a touchdown that forced overtime. The same pair teamed up three years later against the Browns, when the Red Rifle found Green with a 52-yard moonshot with seconds left in the first half. Again, there was some juggling and bobbling before Green pulled it into his chest for a 31-17 Bengals win.

Staying in the division, in October 1999, the Cleveland Browns secured their first win as a returning expansion team with a Hail Mary against the New Orleans Saints. Quarterback Tim Couch avoided the pass rush and launched a 56-yard bomb that was tipped, then caught, by receiver Kevin Johnson. Three years later, Couch repeated the feat against the Jacksonville Jaguars, when his 50-yarder to a tightly covered Quincy Morgan (and the ensuing extra point) secured a 21-20 win. Couch remains the only player to win two NFL games on game-ending Hail Marys.

Before we move on from the Browns, we ought to mention another so-called ‘miracle’: The Miracle at the Met. This refers to Cleveland’s epic game at the Vikings’ old Metropolitan Stadium in December 1980, in which Minnesota came back from a 23-9 deficit to snatch victory in the last five minutes. The Vikes closed to within a point and, after forcing the Browns to punt, were left with 14 seconds, with the ball at their own 20. A crafty lateral pass (more of them another time) set up a 39-yard gain, leaving 41 yards still to go and just five seconds on the clock. NBC broadcaster Len Dawson predicted, “They’re gonna throw that ball up in the air and hope for a miracle” … and he wasn’t wrong. Three receivers lined up on the right and all ran go routes to the end zone, while Tommy Kramer (456 yards, 4 TDs) dropped back and heaved the ball into the crowd scene. A Browns defender tipped the ball but Ahmad Rashad caught it, with one hand, on the 1-yard line and took it in backwards for the score that sealed the NFC Central division title for Minnesota.

When Hail Marys become Fail Marys…

The original ‘Fail Mary’, as it became known, is a misnomer; it was actually a successful play. It occurred in 2012, during a contractual dispute with referees and umpires, when a replacement crew dominated the headlines in the Packers’ Monday night clash with the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson threw a last-second attempt on a 4th-and-10 to Golden Tate, who was surrounded by three defenders in the end zone. Tate pushed one of them away without drawing a flag (hold that thought) but both he and MD Jennings gripped the ball with both hands as they fell to the ground. One referee signalled for a touchdown while another called it an INT. A replay confirmed the score, which resulted in a controversial 14-12 Seattle victory.

That play is one of several that confirm the benefits of defensive players knocking the ball away – preferably down – rather that trying to intercept it but even that can go wrong. On the final play of a 2010 game in Jacksonville, Texans safety Glover Quin tried to knock down a David Garrard pass intended for Mike Sims-Walker with a double-handed, volleyball-style swat. Alas, it went straight into the hands of Jags receiver Mike Thomas, who brought the ball under control and stepped into the end zone for the winning score.

The Tate TD also highlights the fact that players on both sides are essentially immune from pass-interference flags on a Hail Mary, largely because the NFL doesn’t want a game to be decided on a penalty. Most attempts turn into rugby scrums and no one seems to bat an eyelid. The other dilemma facing defensive coaches is whether to take your chances at the line of scrimmage and send in the pass rush or pull more bodies back to defend the ball down the field. That’s a case of pick your own poison and there’s no right answer.

HOT AND COLD STREAKS: There have been three seasons (2012, 2015 and 2016) with three successful Hail Marys each, while only one was completed between 2003 and 2009.

… and Oh Hell Marys

Because it’s such a high-risk, high-reward play, a Hail Mary can go spectacularly awry and I don’t mean the ‘it didn’t quite work’ kind of wrong; I mean ‘handing the other team seven points’ wrong. Indeed, that happened just three months ago, in Week 12 of the 2023 season, in what might be one of the most ‘Jets’ plays ever.

Trailing 10-6 with the first half all but over, New York Jets QB Tim Boyle unleashed a ball 57 yards through the air. Alas, it went straight to Miami Dolphins safety Jevon Holland on the 1-yard line, and he ran it back for the first Hail Mary returned for a touchdown since ESPN began tracking them in 2006. Starting from the back-left of the field, he ended up at the opposite corner, having run for 124 yards. Picking up critical blocks from Christian Wilkins, Bradley Chubb and Jerome Baker along the way, he left the Jets players sprawling in his wake as he completed his incredible 99-yard pick six.

Despite going on to lose 34-13, Jets running back Breece Hall had no beef with the decision to try a Hail Mary. “It makes perfect sense to me,” he said. “You get the ball at the 50, you throw it at the end zone. When you stop thinking like that, that’s when you’re passive, and I don’t want to be a part of a passive offense. I’m happy we went for it.”

THE LATEST (SUCCESSFUL) HAIL MARY: In Week 2 of the 2023 season, the Washington Commanders fought back from 21-3 down to lead the Denver Broncos 35–27. With three seconds remaining, Russell Wilson heaved a pass from midfield that was deflected twice before Brandon Johnson caught the TD, giving the QB his second career Hail Mary completion. Alas, Denver failed to convert the ensuing two-point conversion so it was all in vain.

A personal favourite: the Hail Murray

With 35 Hail Marys in the NFL record books, it’s impossible to summarise them all here. But before we finish, let’s revisit one more corker that wasn’t scripted. It was a play that unravelled and the quarterback in question just had to wing it.

The so-called ‘Hail Murray’ occurred when the Cardinals hosted the Buffalo Bills in November 2020. Down 30-26 with 11 seconds remaining and with no timeouts left, the intended target Andy Isabella – running a crossing route – couldn’t get open on a 1st-and-10. The diminutive Kyler Murray evaded a would-be sack from Mario Addison but with two Bills lineman barrelling towards him, it was clear that the play was breaking down, there was nowhere for him to scramble to and time was ebbing away. He was left with no other choice but to hurl it 43 yards downfield and hope for the best. Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, the only Arizona player to reach the end zone, somehow climbed the ladder and caught the ball, his hands rising through those of Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White and Micah Hyde to seal a stunning 32-30 comeback victory.

Here’s just a taste of how that amazing moment, which won the NFL Play of the Year Award, was described by the radio announcers who cover the Cardinals on KVMP FM. (The fact that it’s nearly all in capitals tells you everything…)

Dave Pasch: “Murray back to throw, flushed out, rolling left in trouble, slips a tackle, gotta launch it, he does, left side, into the end zone, jump ball, and it is… is it caught?! Is it caught?! OH MY GOODNESS, IT’S CAUGHT! DEANDRE HOPKINS CAUGHT IT! HE CAUGHT IT FOR A TOUCHDOWN! WITH ONE SECOND LEFT! I CAN’T BELIEVE IT! YOU’VE GOTTA BE JOKING ME! HOPKINS… REACHES UP WITH THREE DEFENDERS AROUND HIM AND PULLS IT IN! THE CARDINALS LEAD 32-30 WITH A SECOND LEFT!”

Ron Wolfley: “YOU! CAN’T! COVER! ‘NUK! YOU’RE NOT GONNA BE ABLE TO COVER HIM! THROW THE BALL UP! THAT’S WHAT KYLER MURRAY DID! HE EXTENDED THE PLAY WITH HIS LEGS! AND JUST CHUCKED THAT THING UP INTO THE AIR! INTO THE DESERT SKY, BABY! AND D-HOP BROUGHT IT DOWN! TOUCHDOWN!”

Wow. Goosebumps.

Long live the long throw

Since Staubach’s post-game comment half a century ago, the Hail Mary has (somewhat fittingly) come a long way. It is now less of a desperate call for divine intervention and more often a deliberate, strategic play that a cannon-armed quarterback can pull out of the bag when needed. It embodies everything we love about football: skill and strength for sure, but also unpredictability, hope and a little bit of luck.

So, please join me in raising a glass to the Hail Mary: a rare beast, but far from endangered. Rather, it has become an integral part of the NFL’s rich tapestry and, as these examples hopefully illustrate, brought us some of the most dramatic and celebrated moments in league history. That’s why I’m certain that, as long as there are a few seconds on the clock, half a field still to gain and a result hanging in the balance, the Hail Mary will continue to captivate NFL fans.

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AMERICAN FOOTBALL GOES OLYMPIC

A week ago, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) voted to include flag football – a safer and more inclusive version of our favourite sport – in the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles. Other sports, including lacrosse and squash, were also added for the first time.

A game for all

As a non-contact sport played over two 20-minute halves, flag football is appealing and accessible to kids (sometimes in mixed teams) and women, as well as men, and not just in the United States. According to the International Federation of American Football (IFAF), the global governing body, around 20 million people in more than 100 countries play the game so on the face of it, it’s a viable Olympic event.

Participation rates are rising fast, and among girls in particular. Around 475,000 girls aged under 17 played last year, up 63% since 2019, and in fact, women are a key part of flag football’s growth. The National Association of Intercollegiate Athletics (NAIA), in partnership with the NFL, sanctioned flag football as an official varsity sport for female students in 2020 and girls’ high schools in California have just started their first season.

As flag football is seen as the entry point to the sport, it’s currently got a bit of a recreational, collegiate and amateur reputation to overcome. But the semi-pro American Flag Football League will add a men’s professional division for the first time in 2024 and the American Flag Football League’s new Women’s Division has pay equity with the men. And we mustn’t forget, we have a few years before they need truly elite athletes capable of starring on a global stage.

Small squads, big fun

Another reason the IOC were more amenable to the flag/touch version of American football being part of LA28 is the small team sizes. Squads are made up of 12 players, with five on the field at any given time, which will help the IOC meet its own cap on the number of athletes at the Summer Games.

Like rugby sevens, it’s a fast, high-scoring style of the game. There are mainly quarterbacks, receivers and defensive backs, so there are passes and catches and route-running as normal. But it’s also full of quick spins and sharp turns and cuts as the ball carrier tries to prevent their opponents from pulling the three fabric ‘flags’ from their belts.

Support from the NFL

The NFL has long backed flag football as a way to push the global appeal of the sport in general. And having it played at the Olympics in their own back yard – presumably at venues like SoFi Stadium, home to the Chargers and Rams – is a massive coup, not to mention a huge marketing opportunity. The NFL even changed the format of its annual Pro Bowl to include three seven-a-side flag football matches last year. At the time, San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey told ESPN: “I definitely don’t need to take more hits so I’m a proponent.” Given the inherent injury risks, you can understand the appeal of the touch version.

USA Football, which oversees all formats of the sport in the United States, has been working on getting football into the Olympics since it was formed nearly 20 years ago. But its CEO, Scott Hallenbeck, believes that this wouldn’t be happening at all without the support of Roger Goodell and the owners of the 32 NFL franchises.

There will be men’s and women’s disciplines at the Summer Games in 2028, and the chances are, the best players from the national flag football teams will be involved. It was a demonstration sport at the 2022 World Games in Birmingham, Alabama, where the United States won men’s gold and Mexico defeated the hosts in the women’s final.  But Hallenbeck has also said he’s “extremely interested and excited” about the possibility of including NFL players on Olympic rosters.

All hail the US Dream Team

Sure, there are plenty of details to work out with the league and the NFL Players Association so it remains to be seen as to whether it’s going to be feasible. But surely the opportunity to represent their country presents a new opportunity for current NFL players – or even recently retired ones – who fancy striving for a new pinnacle of sporting achievement.

Imagine Team USA’s dream lineup if it were drawn purely from the ranks of the NFL today. Patrick Mahomes; Tyreek Hill; Justin Jefferson; Ja’Marr Chase; Christian McCaffrey; Travis Kelce; Aaron Donald; Nick Bosa; Myles Garrett; Micah Parsons; Patrick Surtain; Sauce Gardner. Or maybe the team taps into the stars of the collegiate game, or even the XFL?

Obviously, if the US Olympic men’s team included NFL players, then they’d romp home to gold without breaking sweat. Twitter is already full of people imagining Tyreek going nuclear while being marked by an Iranian bus driver. The possibilities are yet to be ironed out but Tyreek himself, as well as recently retired tight end Rob Gronkowski, have already thrown their hats into the ring and declared their interest.

Who’s coming second?

More likely, both men’s and women’s teams would comprise players who already specialise in flag football. But for a bit of fun, let’s just say the NFL Players Association get on board and the men’s teams are awash with today’s NFL stars. Who might stand alongside the USA during the medal ceremony? Here are a few contenders who might not give the host nation a run for their money but might compete for silver and bronze:

Canada

As well as being able to draw on additional players from the Canadian Football League, about 25 Canadian-born players currently ply their trade in the NFL. Team Canada could have a decent shot at silver if it could call on the likes of Miami’s Chase Claypool and Jevon Holland, the Chargers’ Josh Palmer and Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard.

Nigeria

Many a player born in Nigeria has made his way to the NFL. Africa’s powerhouse in the sport could make a surprise bid for a place on the medal rostrum if it employed the Lions’ Julian and Romeo Okwara, Cincinnati’s Joseph Ossai, Jacksonville linebacker Foyesade Oloukun and Steelers OT Chukwuma Okorafor, not to mention the “three Davids”: Njoku (Browns), Ojabo (Ravens) and Onyemata (Saints).

Australia

With some of them switching codes from rugby, the Aussies have about 10 NFL players at the moment. Admittedly, several – like the Seahawks’ Michael Dickson and the Niners’ Mitch Wishnowksy – are punters, so they might not be much use(!) but I reckon Baltimore’s Daniel Faalele and the Eagles’ Jordan Mailata would be hard to get past on a small field.

Germany

As seen by the introduction of International Series games in the country, the popularity of football in Germany is massive – and still growing. Imagine an Olympic tournament, held in the US, with noisy German fans getting behind their team of German-born players such as the St. Brown brothers, Amon-Ra (Lions) and Equanimeous (Bears). 

Even if they weren’t in the hunt of medals, would Cleveland’s Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah fancy turning out for Ghana? Would we see the Chiefs’ George Karlaftis represent Greece, the birthplace of the Olympics? Could John Metchie swap his Texans jersey for Taiwan, or sack monster Danielle Hunter switch from the purple of Minnesota for the green and gold of his native Jamaica? And what about Efe Obada repping Team GB colours?

It’s all fanciful stuff for now but the bottom line is that the IOC’s decision to include flag football in the 2028 Olympics represents an unprecedented opportunity to grow the game globally. It’ll be a slow burn but I’ll be watching developments with interest.

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PICK SIX – Week 1

Welcome to our new series where two of the Full 10 Yards crew, Shaun Blundell and Sean Tyler, pick six (see what we’ve done there?!) talking points from the previous week’s slate to highlight and dissect. And with Week 1 of the new season now in the books, let’s jump straight in!

Drop three, pick six

Well, wouldn’t you just know it? Our opening talking point from the first game of the season – the Thursday night curtain-raiser between the upstart Lions and the defending champion Chiefs – was inspired by a pick six from Lions rookie safety Brian Branch. I don’t want to do Detroit a disservice – it was a great play and the Lions deserved the W – but it soon became apparent that the Chiefs were missing TE Travis Kelce (knee injury), not least because of the offensive weapons it left Patrick Mahomes with.

Skyy Moore dropped two targets, rookie wideout Rashee Rice dropped one and even RB Jerick McKinnon joined the party, but the major culprit was Kadarius Toney, with three drops. The butter-fingered receiver’s worst miss was in the third quarter when the ball ricocheted off his hands to Branch, who ran it back for a 50-yard score to tie the game at 14-14. Later in the quarter, Toney dropped a third down pass, forcing Kansas City to settle for a field goal, and his final whoopsy, with 2:25 remaining and the Chiefs trailing by one, saw a slingshot come through his grasp and away. A catch would have set up a game-winning FG try.

After the 21-20 loss, Toney deleted his Twitter/X account to avoid the inevitable flak for his ‘zero net gain’ stat line (one catch for 1 receiving yard, one carry for -1 rushing yards). Despite his 29.7 PFF grade, the lowest given to a receiver since 2018, his QB still had his back. Mahomes said of Toney “I have trust that he is going to be the guy that I go to in those crucial moments.” Let’s see if that’s true next week. [ST]

Bang, bang, bang for your buck

When we talk about players celebrating a hat-trick, the focus is usually centered on someone on the offensive side of the ball. The Atlanta Falcons, however, relied on a star performance from their marquee summer acquisition to spark them to a 24-10 victory over the Carolina Panthers. Jessie Bates III, take a bow.

Fresh from an eye-popping four-year, $64 million deal in free agency, Bates wasted little time in starting to repay some of the faith his new team has placed upon him. He twice picked off rookie quarterback Bryce Young. 

The first was a classic interception from a safety. Watching the eyes of the quarterback and closing quickly on the ball, Bates beat former Falcon Hayden Hurst to the ball as he was crossing over the middle. It set the Falcons up in the red zone and four plays later, they had the lead. The second was almost a carbon copy. With a crossing route from the right-hand side of the Panthers formation, Bates again jumped the route beating Terrance Marshall to the ball. This time, it led to a field goal.

The trifecta was capped off on the next Panthers possession. Miles Sanders had seemingly ripped off a nice chunk of yardage only for Bates to punch the ball out and be credited with a forced fumble. The Falcons would recover and score a touchdown on the ensuing drive. One game, three turnovers and 17 points from those turnovers. Not a bad debut at all, sir! [SB]

**STOP PRESS** On Monday Night Football last night, the New York Jets went one better. Safety Jordan Whitehead played lights out, picking off the Bills’ Josh Allen THREE times as the Jets squeaked out a 22-16 OT win. What with that, a game-winning 65-yard punt return TD by rookie Xavier Gipson and Aaron Rodgers’ Achilles injury after just four plays, it’s a shame all five Hard Knocks episodes are now in the can.

Tua and Tyreek rewrite records

Other than my own Bengals, the game that most intrigued me this week was the Dolphins vs the Chargers: two AFC teams with high hopes underpinned by notes of fragility and under-achievement. It turned out to be an absolute barnstormer, with Miami prevailing in a wild, come-from-behind 36-34 win, thanks in no small way to the lethal combo of Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill.

The Chargers played their part for sure but there’s no disgrace in coming up short against a Dolphins team intent on winning a shootout (their 16 explosive plays were the most by any team since 2014). In his first appearance since a Week 17 concussion, Tua silenced his doubters to the tune of 28 completions for 466 yards and 3 TDs. Two of those tuddies went to Hill – including a clutch game-winner with 1:45 left on the clock – as he amassed a staggering 215 yards from just 11 receptions. 

Rewriting the Super Bowl-era record books, Hill now has three games of 200+ yards and 2+ receiving TDs – a new NFL high – while Tua’s 466 yards were the most ever against the Chargers and the third-highest of any QB in Week 1. 

Ever-humble HC Mike McDaniel summed it all up afterwards by saying “That’s kind of what I expected to happen with the work that he (Tua) has done.” I feel “expected” may be a tad rich but Miami’s QB has certainly laid down a gauntlet to the rest of the league. [ST]

Riddle me this

Welcome back Calvin Ridley! An almost-forgotten move due to its timing was the shrewd business the Jaguars pulled off by acquiring the former Falcons receiver. Fresh off his return from suspension following gambling misdemeanours, Ridley picked up right where he left off. 

He led the Jags in targets (11), receptions (8) and yards (101) along with a trip to pay dirt. It had been a whopping 686 days between regular season games for the receiver but he showed all of his class with some crisp route running and his elusiveness, tacking on plenty of yards after the catch.

The Jags as a whole stuttered to a win over what many presume will be a Colts team in rebuild mode. The offensive line had some issues and the run game was pedestrian at best. Maybe they should just let Trevor Lawrence air it out more? A great stat from Next Gen Stats summed it up perfectly: “Trevor Lawrence’s 18-yard TD pass to Zay Jones was one of three completions of 20+ air yards on the day. On passes over 10 air yards, Lawrence finished 8 of 11 for 147 yards and 2 TDs (+27.8% completion percentage over expected).”

Expect the Jags to get better as the season progresses. [SB]

Dawgs unleashed

It has been a relatively quiet off season in Cleveland. After years of headline making for different reasons in years gone by, the Browns have fallen under the radar somewhat. In a division that has seen two star quarterbacks re-signed and resetting the market in the process, many tip Cleveland to occupy the AFC North cellar once again. Ja’Marr Chase may have lit the touchpaper ahead of kick-off with some ill-advised comments but Jim Schwartz and his unit served up a huge dose of humble pie to not just Chase, but to the entire Bengals offense.

The Browns brought the heat to Joe Burrow all day. The tone was set on the first play of the game with Za’Darius Smith getting his hands on the quarterback. The Browns would go on to record 10 QB hits and four tackles for loss, and were credited with two sacks. The second of those inevitably came from Myles Garrett who, along with his mates up front, had a field day against a sloppy Cincy offense.

Increased pressure up front was backed up by stellar play in the secondary. Tee Higgins was held to zero catches from eight targets. Their longest completed pass of the day went for just 12 yards to Chase, on the Bengals’ opening drive. That was on a third down play, and the Bengals would only complete one more third down from 14 attempts the rest of the way. Despite his fiery words, Chase couldn’t back it up and was held to a lacklustre 39 yards.

There is plenty for the Browns to sort out on offense but defensively, this was an unbelievably brilliant start to the campaign. [SB]

Giants belittled by Cowboys D

At first glance, a 40-point win against the Giants in Sunday’s late game suggests that the Cowboys offense was cooking. Sure, Tony Pollard rushed well (82 yards, 2 TDs) but Dak Prescott completed just 13 of 24 passes for 143 yards and no TDs. So be in no doubt, the 40-0 drubbing of their divisional rivals was all about special teams and defense. Admittedly, Big Blue’s offense isn’t all that but take nothing away from Dallas DC Dan Quinn, who engineered the largest shutout win in franchise history.

His charges had Giants QB Daniel Jones under the cosh all night. They sacked him seven times, with Dorance Armstrong and Osa Odighizuwa bagging two each. Micah Parsons also got one to stall New York’s opening drive and that set the tone for the rest of the evening, with seven different Dallas players also posting tackles for loss. Brian Daboll’s team also coughed up three turnovers, including a blocked FG returned 58 yards for six by CB Noah Igbinoghene. Dallas led the league with 33 takeaways last season and carried on in a similar vein, with DaRon Bland’s 22-yard interception return TD giving the Cowboys a 16-0 lead in the first quarter (even though their offense had completed just one drive). Even Stephon Gilmore got an interception in his first outing in Cowboys colours.

As Parsons said after the game, “I think we made the statement that I’ve been trying to make: we’re the best defense in the NFL.” It’s only Week 1 and there’s a long way to go but so far, we’ve seen nothing to suggest that he’s wrong. [ST]

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What I’ll Be Watching In The Saints Preseason Opener

Finally, we have Saints football to watch as the Saints open the preseason against the defending SuperBowl champion Chiefs. Yes, it’s the pre-season but there is still plenty we can take from the action. These are the 5 things ill be keenly watching this Sunday. 

How Does The First String Offense Look

Dennis Allen has already confirmed that we will see the starters on Sunday Vs the Chiefs, Jeff Duncan from Nola.com, tweeted that he’s hearing the starters will play around 15 snaps. 

Jeff Duncan on Twitter: “Sounds like the plan is for the Saints’ starters to play about 15 snaps in the preseason opener vs. K.C. on Sunday, with the 2s getting roughly 25 snaps and the 3s finishing out the game.” / X

That means we get to see Derek Carr for the first time in a Saints jersey and would be nice to see an efficient and effective display (similar to Winston against the Jags last pre-season). We should also see Mike Thomas back in game action, Thomas hasn’t been his usual dominant self so far in camp, game action against CBs other than Marshon Lattimore will be a good gauge of where Thomas is at. It goes without saying the ceiling of this team is a lot higher if Thomas is on form, if not I do have concerns about the depth at WR.

Part of the starting offense should be LT Trevor Penning another player who lifts the ceiling of this team considerably. He’s had two significant foot injuries one on each foot meaning he missed a lot of his rookie season. Time on task is the order of the off-season for Penning as mental reps will only get him so far. It sounds like the Chiefs will also play their starters to begin the game, so should be a good test for Penning, especially in pass protection which so far, he requires more work on compared to his already dominant run blocking. 

Along with Penning the overall play of the starting O-line is really something to monitor, the reports from camp are that the D-line has dominated, this game should give us some idea of if the D-line is just that good or the O-line is something we should be concerned about.

Finally, Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara have both had dominant training camps per reports, Olave has gained weight to be stronger in contested catch situations and Kamara has a new trainer who has reportedly brought back his infamous burst, again would be nice to see these results in a game.

The CB2 battle

Entering the off-season, I expected this battle to already be over, after Alontae Taylor’s impressive rookie season and Paulson Adebo’s sophomore slump the CB2 spot looked to be Taylor’s to lose. So far in camp, Taylor looks to have done just that, Adebo a camp star a year ago has again been excellent and Taylor has started slow, but has improved in recent practices, but overall Adebo is ahead.

Game action is important in this battle as Adebo is notoriously physical in practice which means at times he wins reps in a dominant fashion which makes him standout. Without refs present it’s hard to tell if his physicality is just enough or a bit too much. If, as the pre-season goes along Adebo is walking the line to closing leading to flags that would change the complexion of this battle in Taylor’s favour. Sunday is the start of a long road ahead to decide who CB2 opposite Marshon Lattimore will be.

The Backup Safety Battle

The top of the depth chart is set with Tyrann Mathieu, Marcus Maye and special teams star J.T. Gray. Behind them, 5th-round rookie Jordan Howden seems to be locked in too. Howden has received first-team reps at both Safety spots when Mathieu and Maye have been absent and has also been the first-choice DIME DB throughout the summer.

That makes 4, leaving most likely 2, maybe 3 roster spots up for grabs, the amount the Saints keep will depend on A). how they plan to run their special teams this year (i.e. more LBs or more DBs) and B). if Marcus Maye ends up being suspended.

Leaving, Lonnie Johnson Jr., Jonathan Abram, Ugo Amadi and Smoke Monday to fight for those spots and all three have had bright moments in camp. All 4 should feature on special teams and all 4 bring very different skill sets. I had Johnson Jr and Amadi making the initial 53 in my most recent projection (link to that here to see my reasons https://www.thekneaux.com/a-way-too-early-saints-53-man-roster-prediction-part-2).

However, since I wrote this Monday has been on a tear. So it’s really turning into one of the most interesting and unpredictable positions groups on the team, where it’s likely only game action will be able to give us a clearer picture. With Mathieu and Maye both getting up there in age and both with only 2 years left on their deals, it doesn’t hurt to have one eye on the future here too to see if the Saints may have a succession plan for one or both already on the roster.

The New Look D-Line

The Saints drafted Bryan Bresee and Isiah Foskey with their first two picks in this year’s draft and added Nathan Shepherd and Khalen Saunders in FA but that’s the only reason I’ve labelled the D-line as ‘new look’. 

Mike Triplett wrote an article for Neworleans.football explaining that HC Dennis Allen alongside new D-line coach Todd Grantham wanted to defensive front to be more attacking and aggressive. DA has also commented that he thinks they had gone a little overboard with their weight expectations, meaning that players met with Matt Rhea the Saints Director of sports science to work out the player’s ideal playing weight with many players losing around 8 lbs.

This means the D-line should have more burst and athleticism whilst still being a bigger line than most. Of the new faces, I am most excited to see first-round pick Bryan Bresee, who by all accounts has transitioned well so far to the NFL world. He’s got an ELITE first step which I think is going to produce some wow plays this season, Sunday against possibly 3rd/4th string lineman? look out!

Finally, are Granderson and Turner for real? both have had really good camps so far, Granderson especially. Similar to my question earlier regarding the O-line is this true growth at a position the Saints really need or is this a product of poor O-line play?

Quick Hitters

LB Depth- Has Baun finally developed? (although we’ve been fooled by his preseason play before) who’s ahead? Nephi Sewell or D’Marco Jackson? as the man backup behind Demarion Davis and Pete Werner.

Jake Haener – One of ‘My Guys’ leading up to the draft has been excellent in camp so far, does that continue in-game action? this might be the most excited I’ve been to watch 3/4th stringers because of solely Haener.

Kendre Miller– I think a lot of people on the national stage are going to be talking about him once they see him play.

Who the hell is WR5/6??– I thought this might finally have been the year Tre’Quan Smith was knocked off the roster, that doesn’t appear to be the case and Smith seems locked in as the WR4 but who is going to grab the bull by the horns and take the last 1 or 2 spots? prime candidates, A.T. Perry, Keith Kirkwood, Bryan Edwards and James Washington.

Is Jimmy Graham making this team?- It sounds like Graham could have a specialised role on this team (RedZone, 3rd downs etc…) but as a 36-year-old TE who didn’t play last season is not usually a recipe for success.

People kicking the ball- There is an open competition at both Kicker and Punter with both of the vets currently out in front but will game action change that? or further cement their lead?

Who’s returning kicks?- With Rashid Shaheed injured, do the Saints have anyone who could earn a roster spot as a returner?

i think ill leave my ramblings there, as you can probably tell I’m way excited about this preseason game.

For more Saints articles- https://www.full10yards.co.uk/saints/ 

Make sure to follow me on Twitter and Instagram @SaintsReportUK, for much more Saints content and discussion throughout the 2023 season and beyond.

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2023 Final Mock Draft

With the 2023 NFL draft just 1 day away it is time for my final mock draft! This is the most difficult mock I have had to do since covering the draft 10 years ago. This class is deep in certain areas, weaker in the top 20, has 5 potential NFL QBs and things could get wild with crazy picks and lots of trades. In this mock I have included trades and tried to match player to the team, on that note Let’s mock!

1 PANTHERS – Bryce Young – QB Alabama


2 TEXANS – Will Levis – QB Kentucky


3 COLTS ( Trade with the Cardinals ) – CJ Stroud – QB Ohio St


4 CARDINALS ( Trade with the Colts ) – Tyree Wilson – EDGE Texas Tech


5 SEAHAWKS – Will Anderson – EDGE Alabama


6 LIONS – Devon Witherspoon – CB Illinois


7 RAIDERS – Christian Gonzalez – CB Oregon


8 EAGLES ( Trade with the Falcons ) – Jalen Carter – DT Georgia


9 BEARS – Peter Skoronski – OT Northwestern


10 FALCONS ( Trafe with the Eagles ) – Nolan Smith – EDGE Georgia


11 TITANS – Anthony Richardson – QB Florida


12 TEXANS – Bijan Robinson – RB Texas


13 PACKERS – Jaxon Smith-Njigba – WR Ohio St


14 STEELERS ( Trade with the Patriots ) – Paris Johnson – OT Ohio St


15 JETS – Broderick Jones – OT Georgia


16 COMMANDERS – Deonte Banks – CB Maryland


17 PATRIOTS ( Trade with the Steelers ) – Darnell Wright – OT Tennessee


18 LIONS – O’Cyrus Torrence – IOL Florida


19 BUCCANEERS – Anton Harrison – OT Oklahoma


20 CHIEFS ( Trade with the Seahawks) – Zay Flowers – WR Boston College


21 CHARGERS – Jordan Addison – WR USC


22 RAVENS – Emmanuel Forbes – CB Mississippi St


23 VIKINGS – Hendon Hooker – QB Tennessee


24 JAGUARS – Darnell Washington – TE Georgia


25 GIANTS – Brian Branch – TE Alabama


26 COWBOYS – Michael Mayer – TE Notre Dame


27 BILLS – Jack Campbell – LB Iowa


28 BENGALS – Calijah Kancey – DT Pittsburgh


29 SAINTS – Myles Murphy – DE Clemson


30 EAGLES – Lukas VanNess – DE Iowa


31 SEAHAWKS ( Trade with the Chiefs ) – John Michael Schmitz – C Minnesota

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Dallas Draft Preview; Luxury or Need in the first?

Draft picks: #26 (Round 1), #58 (2), #90 (3), #129 (4), #176 (5), #212 (6), #246 (7)

Notable Free Agent Additions: Brandin Cooks (Houston – Trade), Stephon Gilmore (Indiannapolis – Trade), Ronald Jones (FA)Notable departures: Dalton Schultz (FA – Houston), Connor McGovern (FA – Buffalo)

As has been the case the last few off seasons, Dallas continue to be a bit more shrewd in who comes in and who goes out at the turnstiles at AT&T stadium. A few eyebrows were raised last offseason when they let some offensive lineman depart in La’el Collins and Connor Williams, betting on themselves in being able to replace them, and replace them they did with 1st round Rookie Tyler Smith who acquitted himself in well in various positions along the offensive line in his first season whilst they played mix and match for periods of the 2022 campaign.

Whilst they repeat half the trick this offseason by letting Connor McGovern head to Buffalo in Free Agency, I wouldn’t rule out another offensive lineman being addressed early in the draft as there is not a great deal of depth there considering the blotched injury history of most of the current starters that sees stalwarts Zack Martin and Tyron Smith reach their 33rd birthdays this year.

Some holes that don’t necessarily need to be addressed with high draft capital this year due to offseason dealings are Wide Receiver, with the signing of Brandin Cooks from Houston and the Cowboys state cohabitants are picking up a 3rd of his salary for the upcoming season. Cooks, who seems to have been traded more than a unwanted pog (the good old days) joins Dallas for some late round picks. He’ll slot in as WR2 after Michael Gallup struggled after coming back from his ACL injury the year prior, and with the Wide Receiver Class not being strong, it made sense for Dallas to bring someone in like Cooks.

Another hole filled was the 2nd Cornerback with Stephon Gilmore joining from the Colts. There are a few questions of concerns in the Cornerback room with Anthony Brown not at this time re-signed by the Cowboys and Jourdan Lewis is coming off a Lisfranc injury that required surgery. Both Gilmore and Cooks are veteran guys to bolster the experience in the locker room and are good additions for the prices paid.

So where do Dallas go assuming they utilise their 1st round pick? Well if you’d ask the bookies initially, the favourite was running back. Ezekiel Elliott was released by the Cowboys for cap purposes and whilst I think the Cowboys may draft a back in the later rounds, I would be surprised if Dallas take a Running Back with their 1st pick especially this day in age and how Running Backs are viewed value wise.

That being said, if Bijan Robinson finds his way down to pick 26, I wouldn’t say no and I doubt Dallas would either. I feel Dallas would have to trade up to get him though, not something Dallas do very often, especially given the position value of the player despite the undeniable talent. Dallas will utilise franchise-tagged Tony Pollard to the fullest extent with former Buccaneer and Chief Ronald Jones joining this offseason. He is more of a banger than Pollard can ever be and whilst he wont replicate peak Zeke years, he’ll probably fill a spelling role for Pollard which will probably be short yardage/goal to go situations.

That role will be taken away from him should the Cowboys take a back with their 2nd or 3rd round picks (prospects such as Charbonnet/McBride/Bigsby/Bijan’s running mate Roschon Johnson), though cant see it myself. It is worth noting that Dallas have swapped Kellen Moore for Brian Schottenheimer at offensive Co-ordinator and Schottenheimer is known for his allegiances towards hammering the ground game, so it may not be out of the realms of possibility that they use a premium pick on a Running Back.

After a week or two of the markets being open it then changed to Tight End the Cowboys will be drafting on opening night of the draft. This Tight End class could be one for the ages, with a multitude of prospects with great profiles are ripe for the picking.

This makes the most sense considering Dalton Schultz has left the franchise in Free Agency, leaving the Cowboys with some fairly inexperienced but useful guys in the Tight End room. Jake Ferguson, Peyton Hendershot flashed at various points in 2022, but with the likes of Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid and Darnell Washington (amongst others) available and depending on what type of Tight End they want to bring in will determine who they want.

Mayer and Kincaid are more of your receiver first type tight ends, whilst Washington is more familiar with blocking and is a unit of a man (though that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have receiving skills, he just wasn’t asked to do much of it at Georgia) and is less likely to create separation or be thought of as a deep threat like the other two, though that never stopped Schultz being productive in this offence.

Other considerations are to add further depth at defensive tackle but more realistically, Cornerback. Considering they are picking at 26, the top of the prospects in most positions have gone so Dallas will need to continue to rely on their scouting program to find the diamonds in the rough should they pick further down the charts in those positions. I know they’ve plugged the gap with Gilmore as stated above, but Trevon Diggs is on the last year of his rookie deal, Gilmore was signed to a 1 year deal and everyone else seem to be wildcards with regards to what they may produce in 2023. And you can never have enough depth at Corner, right?

This draft class seems quite deep at EDGE and there a re few decent options at DT should the Cowboys wish to address these positions.Despite trading away some picks for Cooks and Gilmore, Dallas still have 7 draft bullets in the chamber to beef up a few positions. I expect the more valuable picks to cover Tight End, Offensive Line and Cornerback and perhaps Linebacker.

However, should some value appear at Running Back (Bijan only), defensive line or Wide Receiver, they are never afraid to pull the trigger (see Lamb, Parsons from the last few years). I wouldn’t rule out a trade back or two also.

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Fantasy Football; Winners and Losers

Winners

Justin Fields

Last year I made a custom Justin Fields T-Shirt that said “I’m having a Fields Day”. As I currently write this, I am wearing it with absolute bullishness.

Finally, a superstar wide receiver by the name of DJ Moore has come to the aid of Fields to hopefully elevate this passing game after the Bears made a trade out of the #1 pick with the Panthers to acquire the WR.

Darnell Mooney didn’t quite fit the bill as the #1 guy but makes for an absolutely perfect #2 on the team.

Added to his increased weapons, we all know how devastating he was on the ground in 2022. He had over 70 rush yards in 8 of his last 10 games and broke the single-game rushing record for a quarterback (178 yards) against the Dolphins. His end of seasons stats saw him rush for over half of what his passing yards were.

If Fields and the offensive coaches can get a bit more efficient and productive on that side of things and Fields continues to progress as a player, Fields is easily a top 5 QB for me going forward despite always being prone to an interception or two.

Miles Sanders

Miles Sanders has top 10 RB finish potential in 2023, especially if the word on the street is true that the panthers see Sanders as a 3 down back. Sanders reunites with Josh McCown and his running backs coach Duce Staley from his rookie season in Philadelphia so its obvious that Sanders was somewhat of a priority for the Panthers.

Sanders had over 50 missed tackles recorded last season and whilst the juice drips away with every carry logged, he was hardly a workhorse in his time at Philly. He is more than competent in the passing game, vital for the incumbent rookie QB and his room mate Chuba Hubbard is nothing more than a relief type back so it’s all Miles to the moon.

Whilst the Panthers offensive line isn’t quite Phildelphia’s, Donta Foreman sure did get some gaping holes and productive stat lines last season.

I would more than happily give up a mid (1 QB) /late 1st (SF) for Sanders in dynasty at this point and could be a steal in 3rd/4th rounds of redraft, especially if you go zero RB early.

David Montgomery

Montgomery stays in the NFC North and comes to the Lions from the Bears.

Expect Montgomery to pick up the goal line work that saw his predecessor Jamaal Williams get a crazy amount of touches from inside the 10 in 2022 (45!) which helped him amass 17 rushing touchdowns. They say money talks and to give Monty a 3-year deal worth $18 million, with $11 million guaranteed says to me that they’ll give him the bulk of the work from the get go.

The Lions look to be a team on the up and looking to make some noise so should see positive game-scripts and were often in high-scoring games last year. High-scoring games = loads of fantasy points to go around.

Treat Montgomery as a guy on the RB 1/2 border for this upcoming year.

Garrett Wilson

Assuming Aaron Rodgers joins the Jets, it could be all systems go for the offensive Rookie of the year.

Looking at his splits between the QBs that formed the carousel last year, it’s clear Zach Wilson was restricting Wilson’s production capabilities. He still managed to turn in a 1,000 yard season off of 83 receptions but all Wilson needs is someone that can get him the ball and Rodgers is still one of the more accurate guys chucking the rock.

There are enough other weapons such as Lazard and Breece Hall that teams won’t be able to blanket cover Wilson to stifle him (not that it would matter too much). With an upgrade at QB, he should find the endzone a few more times than the 4 from 2022.

He’ll be a high-end WR2 with real possibility of being a WR1 (maybe even THE WR1? Bold prediction) should the Packers and Jets agree to a trade.

Jordan Love Owners

Finally! Those that have “held the bag” with regards to Jordan Love shares, you can let them loose in 2023!

Not saying that he’s a QB1, but considering how long you may have held on to those shares of Love and waiting with bated breath that the prima donna Aaron Rodgers finally walks out on Green Bay, at least you now have a player that is gonna score you some points. Blow the dust off the bench button on your respective apps and slot him into your Superflex spot. He should be your low end QB2/3 on your roster in Superflex leagues. It’s not much, but it’s better than a goose egg.

Shout out to those who held him since the rookie drafts!

Other Notable Winners:

Rhamondre Stevenson – Damien Harris gone, replaced by James Robinson. Does have some other 2nd year guys but should see a decent chunk of the load.

Tony Pollard – Zeke gone, replaced by Rojo. Cowboys may draft a bigger back but it looks a sthough pollard gets the keys in 2023.

Nico Collins – Whilst they brought in Schultz and have other guys there like Robert Woods from the Titans and Metchie possibly returning, I don’t think the Texans invest in a WR with premium draft capital in the draft. See if you can get him for a mid to late 2nd rounder in dynasty as he’ll be a good depth piece, especially if the QB they take smashes it.

Sleeper Alert

Samaje Perine – decent deal for Perine who produced in a full-time role when Mixon was out for the Bengals. Javonte Williams is no shoo-in to be ready to go week 1 so could be a cheap pickup and may even be on waivers right now. He could muscle his way into a timeshare and way outproduce his value.

Losers

De’Andre Swift

A rollercoaster of emotions no doubt in the Swift camp with the highs of seeing Jamaal Williams leave the Lions, but to then see David Montgomery come through the turnstiles at Ford Field no doubt saw his thoughts crash through the floor.

Swift is oft injured and whilst a really good, talented football player the Lions clearly can’t rely on him and have shown as much through their actions of the deal that D-Mont got as above.

Mike Evans/Chris Godwin

Going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield/Kyle Trask is like going from eating at a 5-star Michelin restaurant to eating off the floor.

Mike Evans’s 1,000 receiving yard streak is under threat and the ceilings of both he and Chris Godwin have reduced significantly with the Quarterback change in Tampa.

Purely because neither of the aforementioned QBs are going to throw in the vicinity of what Tom Brady did over the past few years (Brady threw over 700 balls last season!). The quality of targets will decrease as they won’t be as accurate and they are likely to score fewer points/have fewer trips to the redzone compared with the GOAT’s numbers.

Godwin is saved somewhat in PPR formats due to his role and Mayfield was able to find Jarvis Landry back in Cleveland so should be a low-ceiling WR2. Evans might even be a touchdown dependant WR3 in 2023 who may only be of use in bestball. Welp.

Michael Gallup

It’s commonly quite tough to hit the ground running after coming back from an ACL injury and you do find the first season back takes a bit of time to find your game.

That being said, Gallup may have lost his spot as the #2 in the depth chart at WR as the Cowboys have traded for Brandin Cooks so it seems the Cowboys aren’t going to gamble on Gallup being able to turn things around.

Added to this, the Cowboys make it clear they want to run the ball and will be a run-heavy offence in 2023. He should be a late-round bestball pick and will definitely be a guy that has 1 or 2 big games due to the high-powered nature of the offence, but good luck trying to identify when those will be.

Other losers to note:

Alvin Kamara – Jamaal Williams should continue his goalline trick for the saints, Kamara was already battling Hill for rushing TDs…And he may start the season suspended.

Dameon Pierce – Singletary joins the backfield and poses a problem to his workload. Pierce was great in his rookie year but Singletary who is much more competent in pass protection could take a chunk of a small fantasy scoring pie in Houston.

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Super Bowl Antepost Betting by Full10Bets

Long term Ante post bets are not for everyone. There’s only a small percentage of people that immediately pull up Super Bowl outright markets as soon as the season has finished. I find myself in that small percentage as this is where value can be found, especially if you are looking for teams that you think will improve considerably in the offseason not only in the draft, but in the impending free agency “frenzy” starting next week.

After tipping the Philadelphia Eagles last year (amongst some other picks that worked out not quite so well) as well as an indication that the Jags aren’t far away, I’ve decided to take an early look at some teams that could give you a decent run for your money at decent prices.

Jacksonville Jaguars – 28/1

It’s only right that I start with the Jaguars as I mentioned them in an ante post piece last year as one to keep an eye on. Whilst the price could’ve been a bit more juicy had they not made the playoffs after coming from the clouds to win the AFC South and also their wildcard round win against the Chargers, there is certainly plenty to like about how they’ve righted the ship with Doug Pederson after Urban Meyer’s car crash of an attempt and as a non T-Law believer, he could be on the path to proving me wrong.

If the upward trajectory continues with this team, 28/1 could look quite big.

They are in a terrible division where the Titans seemed to be regressing and could hit the reset button at any time with Henry and Tannehill looking like they are near the end of their roads, the Colts look certain to do the same and draft a rookie QB in this year’s draft but have an overpaid offensive line relative to their levels of performance and the Texans….yeaaaah.

It seems that it is almost certain that they’ll reach the playoffs, and host a game, again this year and at this stage, that’s all you can ask for. The Jags were top 10 in a lot of offensive metrics in 2023 and ended the regular season with 6 wins out of 7, taking down the likes of Dallas,

Calvin Ridley looks set to return to the NFL in 2023 after his suspension relating to gambling and adds another dimension to an offence with the franchise-tagged Evan Engram who has career highs in receptions and yards, similar comments apply to the big free agency signing from last year Christian Kirk. Travis Etienne lived up to his 1st round draft capital in his first taste of NFL action.

The defence, young and hungry led by linebackers Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd will need to improve as a unit on their 2022 performances in order to get to the big game.

It will seem weird not seeing Jacksonville early in the NFL draft order over the next 5-10 (barring injuries/trades etc), but I’m sure their fans (both in the US and UK) will not mind one bit.

New York Jets – 24/1 (VBet)

The Jets seem certain to upgrade the Quarterback position this offseason. Zach Wilson linked to moves away, Aaron Rodgers has said he’ll be playing there and if just waiting for the teams to sort out his trade,

The Jets put up some fantastic defensive performances last year and in only 3 games did teams score 27 points or more on them (2 of which were playoffs teams last season). Gang green amassed a 7-10 record. 6 of those wins came before their week 10 bye. Wins at Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Green Bay and Denver on paper don’t look that impressive considering the state of those teams, but as Jets fans who have suffered for long enough, it’s at least a signal of intent from Robert Saleh’s men that things are looking up. A home victory vs the Bills was their statement victory just before their bye and succumbed to issues with the QBs as well as the carousel along with the season-ending injury to Breece Hall, who looked explosive and should be ready from the get go in 2023 provided his ACL injury doesn’t see him lose any of that.

Their Wide Receiver room is varied and talented with the newly crowned offensive rookie of the year Garrett Wilson leading the way but have a lot of capable players for Rodgers to utilise should he join.

If they can stop the bleeding on teams rushing on them, they could easily challenge the Bills for the AFC East. Sauce Gardner proved every bit of his 4th overall pick landing the defensive rookie award and the combination with him and DJ Reed proved hard to beat with any ease.

The price is a bit short for my liking, but if Aaron Rodgers walks through the door, you’ll see it tumble further (as indicated by only Vbet having 24/1 with everywhere else a lot shorter).

Cleveland Browns – 40/1

Bit of a harder case to make here and the Browns threatened to throw their promising last few years out the window with the trade for Deshaun Watson however, if Watson manages to shake off the rest of his rust and find some sort of his old Texans form, there is a path that finds the Browns into the playoffs. Lamar Jackson looks certain to be heading for the exit door in Baltimore and the Steelers don’t convince me with that offensive line. The Bengals will be around for a few years but they are beatable as proved by their victory against them at home with Jacoby Brissett.

They too have enough pieces on offence and defence that warrant consideration at the prices but won’t get a chance to add to their roster in the 1st round of this year’s draft and aren’t sitting pretty with cap space.

Seattle Seahawks – 66/1

Geno Smith has just signed a deserved contract with the Seahawks and will lead the team once again next season. The Seahawks played some really good football last season, something which is synonymous with Pete Carroll coached teams. Kenneth Walker fit like a glove at running back and run his legs into the ground behind an offensive line that had two rookie tackles that played beyond expectations and could provide solid foundation for the Seahawk’s notorious love for the run game, whilst Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf continued to do what they do.

They have 2 1st and 2nd round picks courtesy of Denver which will help them beef up the defence once more as it seems their 2022 class on the offensive side was a big success.

One to watch: Detroit Lions – 33/1

There seems to be a theme for all the teams that have found their way into this shortlist, teams where the fanbases have suffered for a long long time. The Detroit Lions probably can argue for the longest about that particular element but the pieces are starting to fit together for Dan Campbell’s team and whilst Jared Goff is not going to win any team a Super Bowl, they have pieces on both sides of the ball which can be built upon. Pick 18 in this year’s draft may not get them a QB that is the highest on their big boards and they’ve committed to Goff this year, but that may be a blessing in disguise as there are plenty of Quarterbacks in this year’s class that may allow them to take one and let sit for a year.